Has the loot slacked off ?

CozMoDan

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In my last 20 runs I have only had 4 times where the run paid me more than I spent. That is killing 250-275 mobs each run. I know I hunt only punys but still. It seems to coincide with the last two updates, actually the first of the last two updates. Totally over the last 40 runs I have lost money every 10 runs. I track them 10 runs at a time and then keep only the totals. I am losing about 20% per ten runs.

I hope I am have a bad streak, which I have had before, but never this long.
 

Ferial

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Does your loot look a little something like this?
These are my numbers since the practice instances opened, for reference these are my numbers prior to instances opening:

Cost
16141,7689
Loot
15685,2
TT%
97,17%
 

atomicstorm

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Loot is always unstable during events. I would have thought after all these years you would know this by now.
 

Ace Flyster

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Loot is always unstable during events. I would have thought after all these years you would know this by now.

When mining loot never changed. It had the same variance daily monthly and seasonal and events. I have proof of logs of this as well.

I would bet my left leg that hunting loot is EXACTLY the same. There will be exactly the same variance for ALL mobs outside of the event instance.

People see patterns that aren't there, time and time again.

Rgds

Ace
 

Ferial

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When mining loot never changed. It had the same variance daily monthly and seasonal and events. I have proof of logs of this as well.

I would bet my left leg that hunting loot is EXACTLY the same. There will be exactly the same variance for ALL mobs outside of the event instance.

People see patterns that aren't there, time and time again.

Rgds

Ace
While my log is a very small sample size indeed (post event start) , comparing the entries pre-event start and post-event start there are signifiicant differences. For instance, My lowest ever run-return prior to eventstart was 81%, whereas the lowest of the same size run post event start was 71,8%. The sample size prior to event start is significantly larger, and thus have more "same size run" entries, and none of them are sub 80, but post event start I have 2 sub 80% runs (once again, same size on same mob).

This may of course be conincidental, but it aligns very well with observations of returns during past events :) I think that, for whatever reason, volatility for hunting is increased during hunting events.
 

snails

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While my log is a very small sample size indeed (post event start) , comparing the entries pre-event start and post-event start there are signifiicant differences. For instance, My lowest ever run-return prior to eventstart was 81%, whereas the lowest of the same size run post event start was 71,8%. The sample size prior to event start is significantly larger, and thus have more "same size run" entries, and none of them are sub 80, but post event start I have 2 sub 80% runs (once again, same size on same mob).

This may of course be conincidental, but it aligns very well with observations of returns during past events :) I think that, for whatever reason, volatility for hunting is increased during hunting events.
It's just too small a run to judge. Times it by 100 for clearer picture. Remember the returns is based on the average. Some get less or more. It's all down to luck. (Click at the right time)
 

CozMoDan

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Loot is always unstable during events. I would have thought after all these years you would know this by now.
Actually I seem to have better luck during events. I always thought it was because there is more loot in the pool. MA always said there in no specific pool (like by mod, server etc.), just "The Pool" I kind of stopped events about 5 or 5 years ago when I had a little over 1000 globals and 4 HOFs, although one was on 390 ped, and still had to depo to finish the event which was LongTooth.
 

CozMoDan

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When mining loot never changed. It had the same variance daily monthly and seasonal and events. I have proof of logs of this as well.

I would bet my left leg that hunting loot is EXACTLY the same. There will be exactly the same variance for ALL mobs outside of the event instance.

People see patterns that aren't there, time and time again.

Rgds

Ace
I agree with the patterns. I don't think you can rely on them because of the randomness of the game. I have logged almost 2500 runs since July 22, 2017 and I still have not noticed any pattern.
 

atomicstorm

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I agree with the patterns. I don't think you can rely on them because of the randomness of the game. I have logged almost 2500 runs since July 22, 2017 and I still have not noticed any pattern.
Then you would be wrong. Your decision to believe what you want. Just remember that I have 5m cycled in my logs. I have enough to derive my results.
 

Daimon Frey

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I check return once a week and hunt a lot and I didn't have positive TT run since 2.0 :D If you see positive runs then your sample is too small.

Still all is good for me as I float around break even after MU.
 

CozMoDan

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Then you would be wrong. Your decision to believe what you want. Just remember that I have 5m cycled in my logs. I have enough to derive my results.
You can say what you want but in fact you would be wrong when you take into account random. The odd (this pure odds not probability) of 12 with one throw of the dice is 1 in 36 after a million rolls without a single 12 the odds would still be one in 36. What make patterns here impossible is the random way loot is given out. Case in point is the miner that hit an 80K plus ATH and had played a couple of months and was never heard from again. You may feel that you have found a pattern but I doubt it.

But to each his own and Wish you well.
 

Darth Revan

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I generally find i global more often during events...that doesn't mean im in the +, just that i think you get bigger swings so requires a larger size to counter....in saying that, maybe its just because i am out shooting for longer than i usually do so it just comes around....who knows, its dynamic!
 

theProphet

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(this pure odds not probability)
as converting between odds and probability is straightforward, please tell us the difference in your opinion? :laugh:
 

CozMoDan

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as converting between odds and probability is straightforward, please tell us the difference in your opinion? :laugh:
Kind of hard for me. Odds are real and probability is a guess or a predicted outcome. A coin toss is 50/50 each time you flip the odds are the same but the probability changes. If you flip heads 50 times in a row the odds remain the same but the probability goes up but the odds are still 50/50.

Then on top of all of that MA adds a random factor to their loot equation which now makes it impossible to predict or find a true pattern because the random factor can come up 50 times in a row to affect the out come.

I know that is a little exaggerated because I don't think you would toss heads 50 times in a row or have the random factor affect outcomes 50 times either. But by definition random means anytime, anywhere and as many times as it wants.
 

Jennson

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Wanted to write something, but changed my mind so i just wish you all a happy day and a lot of fun.
 
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