Help: How to tier an unlimited item

[Immortal]

I have done Tier 5 analysis (to give an idea of the maths). Doing manual iteration, using wolframalpha.com to help me I will assume figures of A=0.5, B=.45, C=0.05

A^5 chance of success in 5 tries (3.125%)

a^5+5 a^4 b+5 a^4 c+10 a^3 b^2+20 a^3 b c+10 a^3 c^2+10 a^2 b^3+30 a^2 b^2 c+30 a^2 b c^2+10 a^2 c^3+5 a b^4+20 a b^3 c+30 a b^2 c^2+20 a b c^3+5 a c^4+b^5+5 b^4 c+10 b^3 c^2+10 b^2 c^3+5 b c^4+c^5

5*a^5*b+5*a^5*c
Success in 6 tries
7.03% with one salvage
0.78% with one item loss
Total:10.935% success

15*a^5*b^2+30*a^5*b*c+15*a^5*c^2
Success in 7 Tries
9.49% with two salvages
2.1% with one salvage one item loss
0.11% with two item losses
Total: 22.65% success (2.88% of at least one item loss)

35*a^5*b^3+105*a^5*b^2*c+105*a^5*b*c^2+35*a^5*c^3
Success in 8 tries
9.97% with three salvages
3.32% with two salvages, one item loss
0.37% with one salvage, two item loss
0.013% with three item loss
Total: 36.33% (6.58% of at least one item loss, 0.60% of at least two lost)

105*a^5*b^4+420*a^5*b^3*c+630*a^5*b^2*c^2+420*a^5*b*c^3+105*a^5*c^4
Success in 9 tries
13.46% with four salvages
5.98% with three salvages, one item loss
0.1% with two salvages, two item loss
0.07% with one salvage, three item loss
<0.001% four item loss
Total: 55.87% (12.73% of at least one item loss, 0.7% of at least two)

126*a^5*b^5+630*a^5*b^4*c+1260*a^5*b^3*c^2+1260*a^5*b^2*c^3+126*a^4*b^6+756*a^4*b^5*c+1890*a^4*b^4*c^2+2520*a^4*b^3*c^3+1260*a^4*b^2*c^4 Removed some low probability/success data to make equation manageable (by wolframalpha)
Success in 10 Tries
7.26% with five salvages
4.037% with four salvages, one item loss
0.897% with three salvages, two item loss
0.1% with two salvages, three item loss
Total: 68.23% (17.76% of at least one item loss, 1.7% of two)

4/10 successes: 7.2 %
3/10 successes or less: 24%
At least one item lost after 10 tries: greater than 18.5%
At least two items lost after 10 tries: greater than 2.5%

 

[Xen]

I have done Tier 5 analysis (to give an idea of the maths). Doing manual iteration, using wolframalpha.com to help me I will assume figures of A=0.5, B=.45, C=0.05

A^5 chance of success in 5 tries (3.125%)

a^5+5 a^4 b+5 a^4 c+10 a^3 b^2+20 a^3 b c+10 a^3 c^2+10 a^2 b^3+30 a^2 b^2 c+30 a^2 b c^2+10 a^2 c^3+5 a b^4+20 a b^3 c+30 a b^2 c^2+20 a b c^3+5 a c^4+b^5+5 b^4 c+10 b^3 c^2+10 b^2 c^3+5 b c^4+c^5

5*a^5*b+5*a^5*c
Success in 6 tries
7.03% with one salvage
0.78% with one item loss
Total:10.935% success

15*a^5*b^2+30*a^5*b*c+15*a^5*c^2
Success in 7 Tries
9.49% with two salvages
2.1% with one salvage one item loss
0.11% with two item losses
Total: 22.65% success (2.88% of at least one item loss)

35*a^5*b^3+105*a^5*b^2*c+105*a^5*b*c^2+35*a^5*c^3
Success in 8 tries
9.97% with three salvages
3.32% with two salvages, one item loss
0.37% with one salvage, two item loss
0.013% with three item loss
Total: 36.33% (6.58% of at least one item loss, 0.60% of at least two lost)

105*a^5*b^4+420*a^5*b^3*c+630*a^5*b^2*c^2+420*a^5*b*c^3+105*a^5*c^4
Success in 9 tries
13.46% with four salvages
5.98% with three salvages, one item loss
0.1% with two salvages, two item loss
0.07% with one salvage, three item loss
<0.001% four item loss
Total: 55.87% (12.73% of at least one item loss, 0.7% of at least two)

126*a^5*b^5+630*a^5*b^4*c+1260*a^5*b^3*c^2+1260*a^5*b^2*c^3+126*a^4*b^6+756*a^4*b^5*c+1890*a^4*b^4*c^2+2520*a^4*b^3*c^3+1260*a^4*b^2*c^4 Removed some low probability/success data to make equation manageable (by wolframalpha)
Success in 10 Tries
7.26% with five salvages
4.037% with four salvages, one item loss
0.897% with three salvages, two item loss
0.1% with two salvages, three item loss
Total: 68.23% (17.76% of at least one item loss, 1.7% of two)

4/10 successes: 7.2 %
3/10 successes or less: 24%
At least one item lost after 10 tries: greater than 18.5%
At least two items lost after 10 tries: greater than 2.5%

Except, we just discovered that tiering gets more difficult the higher the tier. So the above would only be the scenario for someone who has max cos for all tiers involved.

 

[Immortal]

Except, we just discovered that tiering gets more difficult the higher the tier. So the above would only be the scenario for someone who has max cos for all tiers involved.

Did we? Where is the info

The case stated is an approximation of tiers if they all had the same base level 50/95 and you were level 0.

A question i want answered is what is 98? 98.99? 97.51? Huge, huge difference.

 

[Xen]

Did we? Where is the info

The case stated is an approximation of tiers if they all had the same base level 50/95 and you were level 0.

A question i want answered is what is 98? 98.99? 97.51? Huge, huge difference.

Ok, then your calcs would be the worst case scenario.

As we discussed in game, someone's salvage rate went down from 98% to 96% from tier 1 to tier 2. Now if someone with higher skills still has 97 or 98% salvage rate for tier 2 upgrading, then we know for sure that higher tiers have more difficulty, and it's not just that tier 2 has a max 96% salvage rate.

 

[Immortal]

Ok, then your calcs would be the worst case scenario.

As we discussed in game, someone's salvage rate went down from 98% to 96% from tier 1 to tier 2. Now if someone with higher skills still has 97 or 98% salvage rate for tier 2 upgrading, then we know for sure that higher tiers have more difficulty, and it's not just that tier 2 has a max 96% salvage rate.

Actually it's not, thanks to information provided in this thread by Dan and Lorfat https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/skills/174371-whats-your-tier-upgrader-level.html

damnnnnnnnn :/

A minor consolation is the tier components appears to lessen (which will be worth TT in next to no time)