Yeah, I don't need any info on the deeds, just making sure that shares have worked the same, as I'm reading some of the valuation talk here.
Eyes are on the past, and this is something different. This isn't a "sale price" being presented with no eye on returns. I mean with CLD they gave a sort of estimate on returns (projected payback) and really nearly hit it.
Here they are
giving away a stream of revenue. And they have measured it with an output estimate, not a sale price. IT might be worth noting that they're talking about revenue here, not income. IT might not, they're never clear and no promise they're using these terms in any standard fashion, and I'm not sure how relevant that is. But here's the thing:
There is no 10 ped baseline value here. I think some people's estimates here are based around the fact that at the end these tokens are going to become "10 ped shares". But, they're not.
A million deeds for unreal is really in a completely new territory,
The number of shares (sorry not deeds, even though the difference is somewhat technical) is irrelevant here. In terms of valuation at least. They've given us a clear indication of projected per share output, which I don't recall them really trying to give since CLD. Again, I missed the IPOs for the other shares.
Many of these instruments seem to be trading PVP at close to a 20 year "payback" rate amongst players, and MA has reached for that similar baseline with their projections here. Due to being MA revenue shares they're actually more likely to remain stable than any of the existing items, due to capturing revenue as players chase events around the universe. That's mostly caly right now - but for the first time it's completely irrelevant.
I wouldn’t pay over 5 ped for them at the moment
I'm in here. These tokens are useless. Something fun to speculate on for what, at least a year? Could easily go to three with no paybacks?
If resellers start sitting on them and there's enough interest to keep them mostly off the market for a minute, we might see some high prices for a minute. But IMO those high prices are still going to stay under $10 until payouts start. People get excited and do silly things and right now they're new so who knows. When they're still dropping in a year, people are going to be tired of them, complaining about the lack of payouts, and ready to just get rid of them.
I'm not sure if MA is going to put themselves in a tight spot here because we could sit around and make jokes for years about when UE5 will actually drop with nobody really caring
that much. But once they started dropping these tokens, the question became "when will
my payouts begin". By late 2023 with no release date given and hundreds of thousands of these in game - we may see them trading in the 1-2 PED region, also pissing off anybody who was buying around a 10PED valuation in late 2022.
The dust will settle but unless there are some very deep and patient pockets willing to sit on these with no target dates for payouts - comparing the tokens to existing shares is pretty hollow. Once they are paying shares, they will likely trend towards that 20 year payback, leaving them trading at a similar value to the other shares, maybe slightly higher as the income should actually be more dependable here.
So we're going to have a little shakeup for a few weeks once they're tradable (not sure if that was yesterday or not) and once there's stabilization around 3 - 5 PED max, price is going to trend down for at least a year. Mayhem drops are going to be tight - they need to stretch this out for some time and a million tokens isn't actually going that far if you can loot them 100 at a time.
Anyways with all that said, some people are going to be optimistic right now, and eyeball that 10 PED valuation while these drop to big cyclers during mayhem. People who trade on that are going to be sorry next year when they're "popping up left and right" during the actual target event next year, and the market price re-settles around what an actual low level player is willing to sell a theoretical revenue stream of 50PEC per year for.
Then depending on where they've concentrated we'll see how far they fall while people wait for the release. I personally doubt that token value will ever hit a stable 10 PED. I think Katie and some others are right, ups and downs 3 - 5 PED. If they rain hard enough during TWEN they may hit 1 PED. I also don't think big/smart pockets are going to start stacking these for a while. Moving any serious amount of money on this during Mayhem is pretty risky.
Fully a tossup of course and one big harvester/reseller willing to wait three years could probably keep a high MV on these for a while. Some people are going to get burned trying to make a market of this during mayhem, though.
Whatever it's too much text. FWIW there's some of my thoughts on the matter.
EDIT: Ahh yeah that needs a summary.
These are (ignoring some outliers) going to start up a real market, somewhere in the 3-5 PED range tops. They're going to trend down for at least a year - at which point they're going to be dead weight in people's storage.
Real concentration will begin late next year at a price determined by how heavily these drop to low-end players during TWEN.
If UE5 release hits 2024 - I won't be surprised if these trade as low as 1-2 PED for a minute (2 - 4 years projected income). But there won't be any real volume. It will be people giving up and selling what they have. Prices won't begin to rise until there's a date on the horizon.
OFC all it takes is one big investor/reseller to change the whole market so yeah. The numbers here are actually really small.
(or I was dreaming...) and thus expected 6 and 7 peds per single token asking price by peeps getting one who aren't interested.
