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Just keep shooting! Just keep shooting?

Idk ist it just me not understanding or did you forget to add 101 conversation of shrp
Minimum value of tokens
Boxes and other mu ?
On top of the redulite reward

Because this reduces your loss down to <10.5k still Depressing but less depressing
 
Mega said:
Dont listen to 24/7 avatars who win from your losses.

Mindark wont do anything about them until the deposits stop. Then they'll think about it and then not do anything about it.
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Have minerbots been that bad since last time we did a hunt on them :ROFLMAO:
 
PreyNaika said:
Idk ist it just me not understanding or did you forget to add 101 conversation of shrp
Minimum value of tokens
Boxes and other mu ?
On top of the redulite reward

Because this reduces your loss down to <10.5k still Depressing but less depressing
Click to expand...

It is not you, nothing is added. I guess shrapnel conversion can be added. (That being said, shrapnel conversion didn't cover auxilliary costs and as such can be disregarded)

+2995,93 = -24116,14

Tokens are worth nothing until converted and sold, and the MU extracted depends on what they are converted to. (With token trader emptying it is even likely min value will drop even further before restock)

Boxes are worth nothing before they are sold (or opened and contents sold as is going to be the case as long as that is EV+). Box MU could go to zero or box MU could skyrocket overnight. I guess they could be calculated on current MU, or current average content MU. But that also changes frequently so it really makes no sense.

In short; MU is not MU until it is realized.
 
My mayhem was one of the worst i ever had. 400k ped cycled with whooping 92.93% tt return.
66-67 looter and imk2 SGA.
At this point i think this is a joke, no more depo for MA till my returns wont go back to expected %.
 
I have since long stopped listening to the "keep shooting" and "your sample size is too small" broken records. The math was brilliantly laid out by our friend FiveDolla, read and re-read his writings pertaining to the subject. You need a certain bankroll to manage the risk of hunting/mining/etc at a certain level in the same way as you would choose a poker table with the ante matching your means and risk tolerance.

With that said, both the attraction and ease of playing above your means are far greater in this game. Social reponses on a spectrum between respect or ridicule, all too often seem correlated to what levels you choose to engage in. But you are setting yourself up for death by a thousand cuts if you can't reign in your emotional impulses and immunize yourself against the pull. It may be stipulated that the economic success of this platform even rests at least to an extent on those who, again in poker terms, are called "fish". Hunting high, especially in competitive events, requires in-game assets equivalent close to some real-world mortgages or business endowments. This is a natural consequence of human desire to out-do each other, good or bad/evil are not applicable categories here.

Notes from personal experience: Selling loot for markup always takes longer than producing it. How those manage to come out ahead who turn over really large volumes, I don't know. It certainly has to do with your networking skills as well. But the game also appeals to strong introverts.

Only one effect I found always reliable, before Loot 2.0 and after, when we were still complaining about "loot waves" and after they were announced fixed, are the ups and downs of deposits trickling through due to common patterns of human behaviour. I like hunting at the beginning of weekends and on the sideline of events, when the frequency and size of deposits has the greatest likelihood of being above average. More often than not there is an uptick in returns around these times. This works for me ever since, only depositing small change in irregular intervals and avoiding to be pressed into speeding unless I decide to award myself a little largesse.

You -can- come out ahead if you are willing to compete with no limits, whatever it takes, but I found this kind of effort is much better invested in your real-world ventures.

TL;DR: If you find you're sitting in a hole, stop digging. Downsize, pause or quit when your losses exceed what you were prepared to spend.

This is also helpful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion
 
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Hello,

I would change mayhem category as your sample size (number of killed) would have been enough for mayhem 01 cat, from my expérience. In ur day to day hunting do you Hunt big hp mobs like this daiki, if not you would know it happens all the time.
Also play in mayhem like you invest ur Money, be ready to "buy" some of ur tokens.
400k cycled on 8 peds mobs is 50k kills, everyone who play long enough know that you can get unlucly at 50k kills. Rare but it happens.
 
I used to go with the motto of just keep shooting when loot was subpar, now I just test the waters and hunt or mine for a set amount of time. I can usually determine whether or not loot is looking up or down in that time. If its on a downward trend I just sign off and do something else unless I just want to have fun exploring or trying something new. I've found that EU is much more enjoyable playing this way rather than :banghead: against a crap loot day. I don't let FOMO chase good money after bad and my cost to play has leveled out until I upgrade my kit again.
 
San said:
I have since long stopped listening to the "keep shooting" and "your sample size is too small" broken records. The math was brilliantly laid out by our friend FiveDolla, read and re-read his writings pertaining to the subject. You need a certain bankroll to manage the risk of hunting/mining/etc at a certain level in the same way as you would choose a poker table with the ante matching your means and risk tolerance.
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Exactly. Spot on. The "You got a lifted truck with big tires, we all know what that means." Perfectly put San.
 
It's never easy. I've been here myself several times and I vividly remember I had to make the same choice, continue or stop. Few times I completely quit and changed the pace. There are many battles and you need to carefully choose them and to constantly reassess the situation as you go and ajust.

The most difficult battle in this game is with yourself and it's the one of selling your loot. Your stars, L items, oils, ESIs all loot. Picking when to sell it, how to sell it. This is what makes the difference of someone that can keep shooting or having to stop/deposit more for ammo. I'm seeing even the highest level players failing at this hard, cutting in auction thousands of PEDs tt of oils a newbie that sells 20 ped tt of oil.
We're all fighting the same battles, well. thos of us that care about the RCE aspect and aim to not deposit at all or much.
Sometimes you need to sell gear, or even your main weapon, because the situation requires it. One of my crazy moves was to sell my main gun all my tokens in FEN, as pills, because I needed the cash to push forward. Later on I got my hands on a FEL LP70 but it was a much better move for me to hunt with limited rifles (cdf - from my tokens, over 20 pcs) during halloween mayhem, hunting hounds (vs hunting boxes and tokens in halloween mayhem). It was the best decision, I did amazing but the thing that kept me was the long term goal. And on numerous occasions I had to scrub my storage entirely just to be able to finish an event

The best thing I learned from the big guys, was to stay focused on the goal and try to ignore the results on short term because consistency is key when it's a long term project. And that's what our gaming here is, a long term project. - If you have to and want to, you can simplify this phrase with "keep shooting". But there are a lot of aspects to it...

I'll say.. stay focused on your main goal and keep reassessing the situation, maybe what the crowd does doesn't fit your style, goal, pace... it's always frustrating but if it gets out of limits, a change might be better vs keep shooting
 
Sirhc said:
I used to go with the motto of just keep shooting when loot was subpar, now I just test the waters and hunt or mine for a set amount of time. I can usually determine whether or not loot is looking up or down in that time. If its on a downward trend I just sign off and do something else unless I just want to have fun exploring or trying something new. I've found that EU is much more enjoyable playing this way rather than :banghead: against a crap loot day. I don't let FOMO chase good money after bad and my cost to play has leveled out until I upgrade my kit again.
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There. The secret is really simple. Just stop when it's bad, try something else somewhere else, when nothing works you can just click explo1 for free cheap skills, save your PED for another day. No you won't get HOFs this way, but that's only because you won't accumulate enough losses. You can of course fill the lootpool for others with better skills, gear and more PED cycled to grab, it's up to you. One of the best things about this game is that it doesn't force you to do anything, you choose your own pace, your own activities.
 
I need to resell stuff a lot in order to improve
People hate me for selling stuff ,even ubers who know how this game works put me on ignore ... but...
I dont care , thats my path its what fits best for me
That way i recover my losses

I adjust my playstyle to the curent Market,
Example i See a cheap weapon i go buy it and play with it untill im done with it... Max untill i'm able to sell it for a good profit

There where Times i hunted sabakuma punys like MAD because it was profitable

Now i'm able to hunt warlocks

I still enjoy losses here and there
But i still enjoy my time, im still here, got my brakes every now and then but i still progress

What i can say is :
Stay Focus
Stay positiv
Dont care about what other people think about you
 
M Rufen Power said:
Quote 1 - I would discontinue immediately and take those losses as a learning curve to not switch in the future and have a more focused strategy.
Quote 2 - I'd say quit while you're ahead because your kill amounts are above the required thresholds, and you're sustaining severe losses. So, that is an indicator to quit now unless you strike it lucky with the RNG.
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Pay close attention to Quote 2. Now pls see the text below.
Ferial said:
I ended up shooting a bit more. I suppose this mayhem will serve as a lesson.
Thank you.
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I hate being right at the distress this event has caused you.
Yet people say where's my data; I *ucking called it, didn't I?
 
Jhereg said:
No one wins from anyone else's losses. Your TT loss (not including misses etc) all go to MA.
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Can you at least provide evidence for these random statements that you are making? Cheers!
 
minim said:
Like you normally do? :)
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I don't make it a habit to make random statements for no reason.
There is most definitely reasoning behind the "so-called" madness.
Otherwise, I wouldn't be getting DM's from people asking for help.
 
Lots of great insight in the replies here, thank you for that!

dabioka said:
In ur day to day hunting do you Hunt big hp mobs like this daiki, if not you would know it happens all the time.
Also play in mayhem like you invest ur Money, be ready to "buy" some of ur tokens.
400k cycled on 8 peds mobs is 50k kills, everyone who play long enough know that you can get unlucly at 50k kills. Rare but it happens.
Click to expand...
I have hunted most hp ranges from very small to ~2000 decently extensively. Prior to this, my worst "downswing" as people like to call them was~9200 kills long with slightly higher averages than the ones above. Hence the questions posed. I would like to think that I´ve played long enough to have seen the limits, but I am still constantly proven wrong. Long story short, this has been my longest downswing thus far (and was already at 12k kills when this thread was made) and as such was starting to question my beliefs and reached out to the community for guidance. It worked better than expected and the replies I got has provided food for thought.


M Rufen Power said:
Pay close attention to Quote 2. Now pls see the text below.

I hate being right at the distress this event has caused you.
Yet people say where's my data; I *ucking called it, didn't I?
Click to expand...
I appreciate the input. Rest assured, the event hasn´t caused me much distress. I would certainly be more satisfied with better results. All in all though, this mayhem ended up better than last years mayhem, so I still ended up at a better result than I anticipated. The only issue I felt was the steep decline. The much more gradual decline of last year was easier to manage, for me. EDIT: I am not massively unhappy with the Mayhem results. Just would have preferred the end to go better.

Also, I´ll give what you said half a pass. The solution for me was not to keep shooting. However there is no indication that changing anything would have made a difference either. Results post-mayhem have been along the same lines.
 
Ferial said:
Lots of great insight in the replies here, thank you for that!


I have hunted most hp ranges from very small to ~2000 decently extensively. Prior to this, my worst "downswing" as people like to call them was~9200 kills long with slightly higher averages than the ones above. Hence the questions posed. I would like to think that I´ve played long enough to have seen the limits, but I am still constantly proven wrong. Long story short, this has been my longest downswing thus far (and was already at 12k kills when this thread was made) and as such was starting to question my beliefs and reached out to the community for guidance. It worked better than expected and the replies I got has provided food for thought.



I appreciate the input. Rest assured, the event hasn´t caused me much distress. I would certainly be more satisfied with better results. All in all though, this mayhem ended up better than last years mayhem, so I still ended up at a better result than I anticipated. The only issue I felt was the steep decline. The much more gradual decline of last year was easier to manage, for me. EDIT: I am not massively unhappy with the Mayhem results. Just would have preferred the end to go better.

Also, I´ll give what you said half a pass. The solution for me was not to keep shooting. However there is no indication that changing anything would have made a difference either. Results post-mayhem have been along the same lines.
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Great outlook on the results. Best way to move forward.
 
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Figured I´d update this for posterity, before going out and doing something potentially stupid.

Currently @ 52900 loot instances (Since the "downswing" started) sitting at a much more, albeit still a bit away from where I would like to be with 70+ looter and efficiency, comfortable 92.565% TT returns. (98.53% so far in February, has helped quite a bit, 22000 Loot Instances)

258175.75 PED Cycled, 238981 PED Looted

So yes, the solution was to just keep shooting. I would like to thank everyone for the feedback provided in this thread.
 
I was at 87% return over 12000 kills this week with 90+ looter 80+ eff and then hit a 7k hof. Close your eyes just keep shooting and the problem goes away 😄
 
Yazuki said:
I was at 87% return over 12000 kills this week with 90+ looter 80+ eff and then hit a 7k hof. Close your eyes just keep shooting and the problem goes away 😄
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Unless it doesn't. Those that believe in this thread that they have it all figured out would tell you that there "are no such things as kickbacks", Mindark gets all TT loss (which is not correct fundamentally and in short term view, only partially true long-term), and that sunning your holes for 2 minutes a day is great for your spirit and improves the chance of a TWEN item.

To Ferial, I have not much to offer with your current state of affairs other than that almost everyone is in the same boat as you since the start of mayhem (one could argue since the implementation of EUT tokens and/or the announcement of their recent relocation but I digress). What I would say is that if you don't have any goals, your goal will be to watch your TT graphs. We all know that the fastest thing to burnout, next to being on this stupid forum reading useless comments all day, is staring at your return spreadsheets. They are great to have, imperative even. However, with people getting higher looter, less people playing, and perhaps even more efficiency over all, there's going to be more volatility. Having a primary goal of a mission, a codex, or something other than the next big fat swirl or a rare item (that is even more maddening) will keep you grounded. You can look back at your graphs to see if your expectations are appropriate (you are on the right path) and your markup is softening your draw down and continue on.

You're welcome to give me a buzz for me to have a review. There might be something that is being overlooked.

@San Thank you for the kind words.
 
atomicstorm said:
Unless it doesn't. Those that believe in this thread that they have it all figured out would tell you that there "are no such things as kickbacks", Mindark gets all TT loss (which is not correct fundamentally and in short term view, only partially true long-term), and that sunning your holes for 2 minutes a day is great for your spirit and improves the chance of a TWEN item.
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I wouldn't say kickbacks are a thing, but I do believe in the law of averages and that my returns will always land somewhat close to expected after several hundred thousand loot events. The only time's I've observed poor returns over an extended period of time was when I hunted Molochs and wasn't killing enough to give room for my returns to average out. Important to remember that those huge x1000-2000 loot multipliers are accounted for in your "expected averages" and maybe thats what trips people out when they don't see the returns that they're expecting. If you're killing mobs that cost 25 PED per kill or more, expect to potentially wait a very very long time before you get the returns you're expecting.


My mention of the 7k hof thing after bad returns was just being playful about the whole just keep shooting and you'll be rewarded, maybe poorly conveyed through text :LOL:
 
Yazuki said:
I wouldn't say kickbacks are a thing, but I do believe in the law of averages and that my returns will always land somewhat close to expected after several hundred thousand loot events. The only time's I've observed poor returns over an extended period of time was when I hunted Molochs and wasn't killing enough to give room for my returns to average out. Important to remember that those huge x1000-2000 loot multipliers are accounted for in your "expected averages" and maybe thats what trips people out when they don't see the returns that they're expecting. If you're killing mobs that cost 25 PED per kill or more, expect to potentially wait a very very long time before you get the returns you're expecting.


My mention of the 7k hof thing after bad returns was just being playful about the whole just keep shooting and you'll be rewarded, maybe poorly conveyed through text :LOL:
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It's all good. Good on you for your 7K. Shared loot mobs are a completely different story..... of all types.

Your first part of your paragraph contradicts your second part. If you don't believe in kickbacks, then there are no guarantees of a 1000-2000x multipler. They simply may never come. If you assume your expectation is 98% based on some "maffs", we're really talking about infinite number of loots, not just a few hundred of thousands - because people can kill hundreds of thousands in the course of a mayhem in the current era and completely miss the boat.

Things are not really as open boxed as we like to think they are. What is open is giving yourself the strongest position to play (whether that is efficiency, increasing your looter, exploiting any number of the bugs that Mindark refuses to fix for years for profit still to this day (not advocating, just a potshot to MA for being lazy) or perhaps dissecting vaporware for non-public information against TOS :rolleyes:) and within your bankroll, reducing ruin. The rest is just up for a debate. I would argue that bankroll requirement is bigger now than it was a year ago.
 
Ferial said:
...

3. Does anyone have any general tips on how to handle situations like these, psychologically? I know what is going on. I know that I should just keep shooting, but it gets hard when after what I thought was a bad streak, I get into an even worse one for a couple of thousand kills.
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just keep reciting the verses from the mighty loot bible 2.0 written by the devs. the answers will come to you
 
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atomicstorm said:
If you don't believe in kickbacks, then there are no guarantees of a 1000-2000x multipler. They simply may never come. If you assume your expectation is 98% based on some "maffs", we're really talking about infinite number of loots, not just a few hundred of thousands - because people can kill hundreds of thousands in the course of a mayhem in the current era and completely miss the boat.
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Yep that's why I mention returns will land somewhat close to expected, because it never will be precise we can only hope for estimations. When people complain about poor returns after only 1000 loot events, it points to the bigger problem you mentioned which is bankroll management. Poor runs in small samples shouldn't make or break/effect your cycling habits.

Edit: Not referring to you btw Ferial, just the most common thing I've seen is people bring up this game is a scam I killed over 1000 mobs but I'm at 80% return blablabla meanwhile their entire bankroll is being used up in one hunting session.
 
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Ferial said:
Figured I´d update this for posterity, before going out and doing something potentially stupid.

Currently @ 52900 loot instances (Since the "downswing" started) sitting at a much more, albeit still a bit away from where I would like to be with 70+ looter and efficiency, comfortable 92.565% TT returns. (98.53% so far in February, has helped quite a bit, 22000 Loot Instances)

258175.75 PED Cycled, 238981 PED Looted

So yes, the solution was to just keep shooting. I would like to thank everyone for the feedback provided in this thread.
Click to expand...

Without recycling the same material in a crude way i'll provide personal experience of myself, and other avatars who share data with me over millions of loot events with 100+ looter and 85+ eff..


this sample is simply not adequate. you're around 4.8 ped/kill.. this is the equivalent of shooting cat 5-6 mayhem mobs at ~3.5dpp and a 250k cycle would take about 7-8 days conservatively.

i have personally acheived sub-95% TT with 90+eff and 85+ looter on over 200k loot events. I have personally witnessed logs of the top players where the downsings will last several million ped before the next several million is a TT surplus.


the level of volatility in the new system that enables these massive 5-digit hofs is truly unrivaled. we haven't seen volatility this insane since the pre-gold era.


efficiency and looter will change the median loot value, not the multiplier maximum and not the multiplier minimums, which remain static.

Once again, not to beat the dead horse, but you have to keep shooting. volatility was "altered" around HWM last year and has remained the same since then.





I'll also say this. Sometimes the "expected" result is just completely unattainable for some avatars, for whatever reason. Falling on that end of the bell curve is extremely painful and these players usually just quit unless they enjoy deleting money.
 
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