Loot Algorithm ACTUALLY solved (RIP)

DreamNirvana

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Hey guys, I would like to share something with you, before I do, I'd like to make a few things clear.

#1 This is not a theory. This is not speculation. Every detail I mention here can easily be reproduced and verified.

#2 I'ma copy this to EU Reddit and everywhere else eventually, if this post/my PCF account gets banned/deleted I will redouble efforts to spread this information across every other information outlet possible. People deserve to know hidden mechanics and where their money is going.

#3 this is my first and last post on PCF. I can care less honestly if I get banned from EU for this. I’ve already quit the game after a few years on and off playing, I just thought I should leave this information to the community because I ofc understand what a sore issue this is for all players.

I should also make it clear that I only discovered this because when I last came back, I did so out of curiosity, so that I could test odds and other mechanics. I am an aspiring indie developer and I just wanted to understand once and for all how EU mechanics work for an RCE/MMORPG.

EXPOSED RNG

Not long after having been back, bouncing around just messing with stuff, an old friend told me I should check out RT/Booty Raid (or Crib Raid, but only L1-2 for each otherwise no “dice” appear in instance), because there was some kind of “trick” to manipulate loot in this instance. Naturally, this intrigued me, and I moved to RT for a while to investigate this. The “supposed” trick goes as follows,

#1 Use full TT lockpick to enter BR/CR L1-2

#2 When you get to halfway point, roll dice inside room until you have got both a “snake eyes” and a “lucky 7”

#3 Once you roll snake eyes it causes mobs from the 1st half of instance to reset, go clear them, finish the instance, and more often then not, supposedly, “you will get better loot”

What became clear to me almost right away is that this in itself really does nothing. Yes, you get higher TT value return but ofc, usually a higher TT loss % also, very typical outcome just different mechanics.
But I couldn’t shake this weird feeling I had about this room and this mechanic. As far as I know, this is the only player initiated RNG in all of EU that directly affects your loot outcome, so despite losing tons of ped, I decided to stay and investigate.

DISCOVERY

After like 50 + attempts (I’m not joking) I was starting to think I must have been mistaken. I tried just about every possible manipulation I could think of and recorded all results, and nothing changed in terms of return. I tested high DPP (overkill still translates to higher instance score) low DPP, I even decided to see if I could roll lucky 7’s before I got a snake eyes, in effort to see if lucky 7 by itself altered loot outcome (it did not). The ONLY thing that affects loot outcome is the snake eyes/reset mechanic, after which, I started to eventually realize this was actually quite worse in terms of average return.

I finally got the random idea (I was a man on a mission here) to just keep rolling the dice themselves and see if I noticed anything odd about them. This my friends is where it gets juicy.

FIXED RNG

I rolled BR dice over one thousand times in one instance (again, not joking) and simply recorded the results. I was startled right away when I started to look back over my data because I immediately noticed these dice are rigged (big shocker right?) and not just rigged, but rigged in an interesting way. Essentially what this RNG shows is that no matter how many times you roll, the outcome is basically always going be the same. You will always receive the same number of 1, 2, snake eyes and lucky 7’s no matter what you do. There is no “randomness” at all to it really, only a little bit of pseudo randomness. This also shocked me because this proves that a rigged RNG is determining your loot outcome (again HUGE shocker, right? This is Mind Ark we are talking about here ROFL) but there is much more to this and it gets worse.

REVELATION

I am not sure if the programmer in BR intentionally left those seed values exposed (0-7) or just did not think anyone would ever notice, but obviously, I did. Now that I understood roughly what is going on behind the scenes in return generation, I needed to understand exactly how this translated and reflected in every single “turn” kill, click etc. This was extremely difficult at first (more so for crafting/mining) but since I now had the “key” I could start to translate my return sequence. To test this simply go out hunting, average your cost per kill, then compare that to your % of return on a kill by kill basis. You are going to see this as follows,

0 (snake eyes) = lowest return (this was at one time your “no” loot, now is your lowest % return)
1 = 2nd lowest return
2 = 3rd lowest return
3 = 4th lowest
4 = 5th lowest
5 = 6th lowest
6 = Cost per kill back, break even
7 = TT profit (mini’s and yes, swirl, hof etc)

If you you look at your returns and this RNG you can eventually see “lucky 7” actually comes roughly every 7 “turns”, usually in the form of a small mini (can even be just + 0.02) and can go for a high of 22 turns before this sequence repeats itself, repeatedly. Like I said don’t take my word for it go look for yourself. On average above ground mining, same thing. Usually a “find” every 7 turns. Crafting no condition, again, usually a small mini every 7 turns, before snake eyes eventually follows and return sequence repeats itself. What is even crazier is that if you switch activities, or even switch to say a different mob, you can see that your return sequence will literally follow you down to 10ths of percentages in semi-predictable fashion.

Before you get to excited you need to understand that the algorithm is designed so that when you achieve your minis, swirls, hofs and so on, it basically never equals what it cost to achieve it, aka TT profit is essentially impossible, this is most often reflected in Ubers forcing swirls/hofs but still losing. You can also obviously see you are losing almost all the time. In the rarest of cases I have seen where “true” TT profit has occurred, it is obvious it only has because the system has marked you for extraction or you have already lost this amount once, and if you continue to play, you will lose it, guaranteed. I had started to compare this fixed algorithm to MU returns, “efficiency” and other things, but frankly, was so disgusted I felt I had already had enough (and testing isn’t cheap)

MU IN PROFESSIONS?

Of course, you’re going to say ok well we have always known its fixed to some extent and you should only be focusing mu loot anyway to get the 95% TT return + MU profit. Ok so “cycle” 10k USD, to lose 500$ TT, then receive 95% fixed garbage no mu loot? Then wait a year or 2 to sell it all to the (500-1k) total players left in EU? Please do not make me laugh. This concept may have been ok in the beginning if this rigging did not apply to actual MU return, which it (very clearly) does, the economy is simply not there. There is simply no reason for this unbelievable rigging system.

ADDITIONAL TESTING

I experimented with a few other things that may or may not confuse providers tracking system (I'm not going to outline that here), but really, if you got to use exploits to even survive in a game, you gotta know its broken as f***. I mean EU literally still even operating on an obsolete game engine. Ultimately one of my main missions in this was to uncover the true odds of return in EU, and honestly, try to understand how/why they are not forced by law to disclose odds of success, (here in the USA all online casinos are forced by law to reveal odds) but what I discovered was obvious.

In order to be forced to do such a thing, that would mean that you actually have to have a chance of winning/profit my friends. Without true swirl/hof/ath/mu consistent profit in professions, what do you have in EU? Lol, literally nothing. Not even a small reason I can think of as to why you would be there if not profiting. No story. No pvp (yes, I said no pvp, 0 incentive lol) no…. nothing.

I hope one day a company can take this concept and make it into something truly great because I still believe it is the future of gaming, and I would support it with all my heart and funds.
That’s it for me. If you have any other questions feel free to DM jaxxone#2130 @discord. Again I left EU some time ago but decided to still share this, only because this is a community I have come to love and respect over the years.

Until next time space cowboys.
 

Psynergy

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You are saying things that like...the entire community has known since 2003 dude....

I even had a society called 'there is no random'. We've done lots of research as a group.

I might also add Mindark is doing a lot lately, watch and see what they do. Things just might change.


However let's discuss the obvious...they take a certain % of your loot. Of course the system is rigged, it's an economy in which some have fun, others pay, and the money shuffles around just like the real world. No worries there.

Now...you can of course take what you're mentioning and match it up to markup and make out the best. That what this game is.
Congrats on your first steps. You are supposed to not focus on TT return which is what everyone seems stupidly focused on. You are supposed to hunt things you haven't even remotely come close to understanding in order to maximize your MU.

I've made a lot of progress using markup, perhaps it seems your explorations and data gathering were very limited. Stop stressing so many small factors and screaming scam and you will instead see the actual universe how it is.
And once again don't do what you can't afford :)

Your real life skill and ability to find markup will easily lead you to profit if you know what you are doing with experience versus a little bit of testing and ranting on a forum. Your ingame skill raise your TT return meaning your overall effective markup to stay alive is less, on the top end it's about 1-2%, and there are plenty of mobs around the game that will deliver multiples of this. There was a lot of anger I had, and then I explored and learned to shut up real quick as have most people in the game that actually play it.

Here's an example, if you cycle 100,000 peds, and have a loss of 2%, that's only 2000 peds...
If you cycle 100,000 and fail to find 2000 peds of markup you're clearly doing things incorrectly in your research.
However playing super stupid and getting 13% loss isn't sustainable no matter what you do.

Odds of return? 90-99% about. Done. Max out your skills and do a specific set of actions? 99%. Fail? 90-92%.

Also let's check your ego at the door. Just because you don't enjoy something doesn't mean others don't. Stop being so selfish and nieve. Everyone in this world doesn't fit into what you want to project them as and paint them as. Everything isn't how you think you have it figured out.
Perhaps see a doc for some meds.|

Many of us are here for people, community, interaction. It's a virtual universe, you can't explain life and its purpose. We are here because we enjoy it. You aren't because you can't take it.

I might also suggest there are deep seated flaws in what you are trying to say is the answer...your discord is fake...and tbh it just seems like you're a child trying to damage everyone else's toy because you hurt yourself with it.

Also if you played you'd notice there's a hell of a lot more people flooding into this game than before, and things are much healthier than previous. GG
 
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Legends

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All I've learned from this is that the Random Number Generator which determines loot return has 8 values, only 2 of which give a equal or positive return, equaling a 25% chance. Which means you have a 75% chance of having a loss.

Seems about right.

Was there something else I missed?
 

Granny Rowan

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All I've learned from this is that the Random Number Generator which determines loot return has 8 values, only 2 of which give a equal or positive return, equaling a 25% chance. Which means you have a 75% chance of having a loss.

Seems about right.

Was there something else I missed?
If average returns were 'consistently' bad then this game would have died years ago. But it isn't and we are here and growing in number.
Yes we have dry periods in game.. some long, some short but our averages are still deemed by each player that remains as acceptable. Note I say each player, as we all have our personal threshold for our finances, our patience with game bugs, boredom with iron missions or whatever. Those that can't take the heat leave, those that find more that is positive than negative stay.
Yes on average we ALL lose some ped in game, after all we in a way employ MA, we have to pay their wages, their R&D costs, office rent etc oh yeh and profit.

So long as the cost to play is proportionate to our enjoyment, no amount of theories about loots, crafting, mining finds etc will change anything. We are here to have fun :) if you want to just gamble and use your stats to gain a profit..try the stock market. People reckon there are hidden trends there too.. Good Luck

Oh and btw if my mining finds were as few hits / drop as you propose I stop, change location or go hunting. I would never continue a run with low hit rate..it's why I don't and will never do indoor mining other than as an occasional whim. On average my returns are 80-85% TT and often higher or profit. I am not a pro miner, just a dabbler, like RL it is not about the opportunities MA offer, it is about what we do with them. Know when to walk away and try another day
 

Alukat123

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You are supposed to not focus on TT return which is what everyone seems stupidly focused on.
because tt-returns matter xD
What good is 150% MU loot doing you when you run 50% TT-return? You'll still end up with loss ^^
 
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Yeah i was just going to say your math is way off. You need to find 20000 peds worth of markup.:ahh:
 

Xen

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Another bitter ex player come back or hanging around to tell us the game is rigged/doomed.
 

Sub-Zero

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:scratch2:Of course the game is rigged, do you think this is a charity? They need a % cut to keep the game rolling and paying wages etc.
 

Detritus

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An indie game developer that doesn't understand the fundamentals of loot algorithms and how they are of course never random since that would be a total disaster? :scratch2:
 

Oleg

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So you can't TT profit long term, you have to go for markup? Outstanding findings, well done. Would have been news in about 2004.
 

Captain Jack

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While I think there is something to your theory (it makes sense), I think your premise is flawed. Of course the dice are loaded and the odds are in favor of the house. It must be that way for such a game to exist.

I also believe you are mistaken about the markup bit. You seem to be indicating that MindArk counts markup into your overall return, and on that I believe you are wrong. The reason you were able to find rare ores unamped and not able to find rare ores when you amped is not because MindArk was counting markup into your overall returns, it's because there are value caps per individual claim on certain rare resources. When you exceed those value caps by amping you are no longer able to find those rare ores. That's all.

It was an interesting read nonetheless, but it doesn't really change anything for us.
 
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Psynergy

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because tt-returns matter xD
What good is 150% MU loot doing you when you run 50% TT-return? You'll still end up with loss ^^
It's not any good. But I'll hunt ALL DAY AT 20% RETURN, losing 80% of my TT if that stuff reliably carries 1000% markup and good volume.
 

Psynergy

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Yeah i was just going to say your math is way off. You need to find 20000 peds worth of markup.:ahh:
YEeeeah....oops. Well given on a far smaller scale I'm finding enough markup to keep myself alive, you get the point :p.

HOWEVER, I will admit: when I step off the path of what I have learned works for me, I do get hurt far worse than I would consider 'acceptable' returns. But...it seems they're revising the game from the ground up focusing on the newcomer experience first, and I'd rather have that. I can pay a bit more while they do that.
 

DavinFelth

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For hunting at least: right mob, right time, right place
you usually can get 2 of the 3 , but not all 3

no matter how the loot works, there must be some randomness that keeps employees or people around them, etc from being able to exploit even if they know the "secret"
 

Dirk

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..... meanwhile here is a picture of some lovely Bluebells ......

 

unufain8

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If you left this is not working. Simple as that.
 

Alukat123

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It's not any good. But I'll hunt ALL DAY AT 20% RETURN, losing 80% of my TT if that stuff reliably carries 1000% markup and good volume.
and no other mob/craft but this one will be hunted/crafted.
Thing is, the higher base-return the more diverse the community can hunt/craft/mine.
High return is necessary for a healthy and diverse economy, people won't pay more just because returns are bad, that mob/craft, which needs f.e. 90+% return, will simply no longer be hunted/crafted, because it very likely is going to be a huge loss.
 

yeeck

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Nice, but if you based on the theory, you wont enjoy or play the game.
 

zelldot

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Any one who knows about computers, and even reality, there is no random, random is simply not knowing the inputs to an outcome.

No computer in the world can generate and random number, it is usually done from a seed and self repeating equation. Personally I like to use milliseconds of a system clock myself when I program, as people have very little control on such a small time scale.
 
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Corwin

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Any one who knows about computers, and even reality, there is no random, random is simply not knowing the inputs to an outcome.

No computer in the world can generate and random number, it is usually done from a seed and self repeating equation. Personally I like to use milliseconds of a system clock myself when I program, as people have very little control on such a small time scale.
there are truly random bit sources actually, but they have limited bandwith. so in programmin is more common using a loop. But wat ur not thinking about in this case is that you have a real random variable ingame, and that is defnally the istant in wich the player loots a mob. I think that it is possible to TT profit, and i also think that the shrapnel bonus is actually a bonus, not counted in the overall 92.5% return stated by mindark. with the bonus i mean when u do loot a mob and instead of finding one bunch of shrapnel u find 2 of em with different size.

Theories theories...

Have you ever considered that if I rub my budhas belly while he sits in front of my screen affects my loot results? :eyecrazy:

Really, it works!
 
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R4tt3xx

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Any one who knows about computers, and even reality, there is no random, random is simply not knowing the inputs to an outcome.

No computer in the world can generate and random number, it is usually done from a seed and self repeating equation. Personally I like to use milliseconds of a system clock myself when I program, as people have very little control on such a small time scale.
That's amazing, I love it... I don't think MA is using ms, just m.
 

Tuner Tune Data

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Nice, but if you based on the theory, you wont enjoy or play the game.
I read these thread and get abit sad we all wanna win lets be honest this game is design for the excitement it just after you hunt 10k mobs and then again aiming for a piece of armor or weapon and you dont get anything but tt food you reason thats were either you stay or you go.
 

Tournament Spon

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Any one who knows about computers, and even reality, there is no random, random is simply not knowing the inputs to an outcome.

No computer in the world can generate and random number, it is usually done from a seed and self repeating equation. Personally I like to use milliseconds of a system clock myself when I program, as people have very little control on such a small time scale.

Now if only we knew which song they used.

The Universe is harmonic.

News in 2020. :cool:
 
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