Loot system cracked!?

DarkFire

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I read most of the posts here and some of them really shake the brain ...
good ...

my question is [pardon me if this is a bit vague]:
Is there anyone here, who has created anything like this in rl?

I mean any game, any simulation, any math model, whatever that has at least nearly he same kinda thingie like loot system here?

As posted earlier, I made a simple application that simulates loot a long time ago (latest version I could dig up is from july 2008).

I can mail it to you if you're interrested. It's the best approximation of EU loot I've seen.
 

Sivy

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Is there anyone here, who has created anything like this in rl?

I mean any game, any simulation, any math model, whatever that has at least nearly he same kinda thingie like loot system here?

I doubt that anyone here is a slot machine circuit board programmer :lol:
 

dutch chap

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The problem is that even if you would get a hold of the exact loot formula, it won't do you any good as far as your return goes cause there is no doubt a couple of random elements in it. If there weren't then loot would be a fixed outcome and you would get the same return everytime you kill creature x with weapon y.

Back in the days of the commodore amiga i made a jackpot game to play with 2 friends of mine. It had a twist in that you could play 5 minutes each and your score would be kept on a scoreboard. After 5 rounds of 5 minutes each we paid the difference to eachother to add some excitement to it.

And guess what?

Eventhough i knew exactly how the formulas were since i programmed it, i still could not predict the outcome. I lost/won about as many times as my mates did over time. Ain't randomness a beautiful thing? :)



And for those of you that are now gonna say a computer isn't truly random cause the random number is based on a seed... you're right. But for us it IS random, cause there is no way you can predict the number sequence, especially not when the seed is something like the time passed between hitting key x and key y, or whatever else timebased seed. Or combined time based seeds etc.

If you can't predict the outcome, it's random. If the loot formula has random elements (and it HAS to have them), then you can't predict it.



There's no doubt some areas are "hotter" than others at times, where the return is better than average. But you can't predict that area cause well uhm... they are random :p Even the time it lasts is random.

The best you can do is observe where people loot good and hope for the best.



In short: even if MA would hand over the formula you won't be able to predict what to do because of the random elements.
 

mrproper

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Eventhough i knew exactly how the formulas were since i programmed it, i still could not predict the outcome. I lost/won about as many times as my mates did over time. Ain't randomness a beautiful thing? :)
Actually that would be a contradiction on yourself.

If you know the exact formula, you can predict possible results.

If you don't know the formula or parts of it, your predictions would be useless.

That's why we have two number sciences called Statistics and Probabilistic.

One tells you what the results were in the past, the other one tells you what the results might be in the future. They communicate with each other by using... "the formulas".
 

dutch chap

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Actually that would be a contradiction on yourself.

If you know the exact formula, you can predict possible results.

If you don't know the formula or parts of it, your predictions would be useless.

That's why we have two number sciences called Statistics and Probabilistic.

One tells you what the results were in the past, the other one tells you what the results might be in the future. They communicate with each other by using... "the formulas".


Yes, of course i knew the boundaries of the formulas, i knew the chances, the likelyhood of things to "drop", but that doesn't do you much good in predicting the next outcome does it?

To make my piont really clear and simply:

If i deal you a card you know with 100% accuracy it will be 1 of the 52 possible cards. You know the boundaries, so you can predict it will be one of those 52, but there is no way you can tell me what card it will be other than with a 1 in 52 chance.

If you would know the EU loot formula you may know the boundaries (unless the boundaries are randomized as well, hence good and bad areas), but you still wouldn't know where to go or what to do to be at the right spot at the right time.

What i was saying with my previous post is that even the coder of the loot algorythm would NOT know where to go hunt, mine or craft to get good returns. Provided he/she coded it properly that is.
 

aridash

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If you know the exact formula, you can predict possible results.

no, thats exactly his point. you design a fomula with a unknowable or randomised variable in it, then you cannot know the precise outcome.
 

mrproper

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no, thats exactly his point. you design a fomula with a unknowable or randomised variable in it, then you cannot know the precise outcome.
YES, YOU CAN KNOW THE OUTCOME.

That does not mean you know the outcome is exactly 42, but you know the chances of 42 showing up. And the chances of 43 showing up. And what other numbers can show up. And how often they can.

Being randomized, doesn't mean that you can't predict anything, it means you can predict something over nothing. Which if you want to take a religious stance against it, without college courses to back you up, then be my guess.

MA knows the outcome. They have to predict it based on their formulas, otherwise they would go bankrupt, or make lots of customers unhappy(er).
 

DarkFire

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That does not mean you know the outcome is exactly 42, but you know the chances of 42 showing up. And the chances of 43 showing up. And what other numbers can show up. And how often they can.

Technically, that's just knowing the odds, not the outcome.
But i think i know what you mean. MA knows that in the long run, the outcome will be that they win, because the odds are strongly in their favour, right?
 

mrproper

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Technically, that's just knowing the odds, not the outcome.
But i think i know what you mean. MA knows that in the long run, the outcome will be that they win, because the odds are strongly in their favour, right?

"To predict the future, one must write the future"
 

dutch chap

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YES, YOU CAN KNOW THE OUTCOME. MA knows the outcome. They have to predict it based on their formulas, otherwise they would go bankrupt, or make lots of customers unhappy(er).

As Darkfire said, MA knows the odds and that they will get a certain % cut, certainly over the long run. That's where those boundaries come in. They may "loosen" the boundaries if a lot of peds were spent so the odds for a global or hof are temporary higher, they may "tighten" the boundaries if needed, and i bet that is all taken care of by the software itself based on ped input from the players.

So MA can predict their outcome overall, at least as a percentage of all peds spent.

You and me can predict our outcome over the long run as a percentage of tt spent based upon tests a lot of players did, but.....


Wasn't the point of this thread to see if you could crack the system? So that you could decide what to do, and when, to beat that overall percentage?

I am argueing that knowing the lootformula won't help you to beat that because of the random elements, you counter that by saying MA can predict their return. Those are two different things.
 

Wolverine Queen

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Imo its impossible to profit in TT in long run, even if you know the system and can predict it. This doesnt include those one in a million avatars who simply are lucky.
 

Sivy

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As Darkfire said, MA knows the odds and that they will get a certain % cut, certainly over the long run. That's where those boundaries come in. They may "loosen" the boundaries if a lot of peds were spent so the odds for a global or hof are temporary higher, they may "tighten" the boundaries if needed, and i bet that is all taken care of by the software itself based on ped input from the players.

So MA can predict their outcome overall, at least as a percentage of all peds spent.

You and me can predict our outcome over the long run as a percentage of tt spent based upon tests a lot of players did, but.....


Wasn't the point of this thread to see if you could crack the system? So that you could decide what to do, and when, to beat that overall percentage?

I am argueing that knowing the lootformula won't help you to beat that because of the random elements, you counter that by saying MA can predict their return. Those are two different things.

I totally agree with you! But, hey! Isn't that how slot machines work? ;)
 

mrproper

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You and me can predict our outcome over the long run as a percentage of tt spent based upon tests a lot of players did, but.....


Wasn't the point of this thread to see if you could crack the system? So that you could decide what to do, and when, to beat that overall percentage?

I am argueing that knowing the lootformula won't help you to beat that because of the random elements, you counter that by saying MA can predict their return. Those are two different things.
Any gambling strategies are always working in the long run, where your knowledge of the system allows you to scalp very often and very confidently, small percentages of returns.

It is thus a proof of a functional loot formula, one that allows you to consistently and clearly obtain better results in your loot quantities and qualities, as compared to a non-organized mode of play.

If you crack the system, you can predict your outcome in the long run.

The topic was about how we can determine this is the case, and how we can improve one formula that appears to be working.
 

mrproper

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Imo its impossible to profit in TT in long run, even if you know the system and can predict it. This doesnt include those one in a million avatars who simply are lucky.
Suppose we want to find out if you are right. How do we find out?
 

dutch chap

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I give up mr.proper. Your definition of cracking the system is totally different than mine :)

Things like quitting when loot is bad, staying when loot is good, only craft lvl2 or higher bp's so you have a chance on L bp's, using the right gear and whatnot, will all improve your return slightly.

I have a set of rules of thumb like that when i play (although i am not active for a good while now), and it helped, but i would not dare to say that i cracked the system.

I got some money out late 2008 and i played very VERY actively till the beginning of last years summer and my last deposit dates from 2006, so apperently i must have been doing SOMEthing right.

Does that mean i cracked the system?... nah. I got lucky here and there and didn't do too many stupid things, but that's all.


If someone comes up with a formula that tells me where to go and what to do while giving me better returns consistantly, THEN i will regard that as cracking the system.

Anything else is just luck mixed with playing not too dumb.
 

Abdullah

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I hope that the system is made so that even the creators of the system
cannot gain profit all the time from it.
 

mrproper

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If someone comes up with a formula that tells me where to go and what to do while giving me better returns consistantly, THEN i will regard that as cracking the system.

Anything else is just luck mixed with playing not too dumb.
Sure, but you don't expect someone to tell you where to go, and play for 5 minutes and double your avatar value, in order to have a satisfactory proof, do you?
 

dutch chap

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Sure, but you don't expect someone to tell you where to go, and play for 5 minutes and double your avatar value, in order to have a satisfactory proof, do you?

Indeed, i would not expect that.

Also, i didn't talk about doubling my avatars value in 5 minutes for proof anywhere. Didn't write it, didn't even hint at it.

Consistent better returns is what i said.
 
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