Perception Theory

[Etopia]

lol...

If you remember the guy who looted the ML35 SGA a month after SGA ended... had just eaten a perception chip...

If the action "eat perc chip" had the concequance " loot mega item" then
1) we would see people looting mega item all day long
2) perc chip would cost 10 time more..

An ramdom isolate event , can not be the fact that prove a tehorie...or then , what ever tehorie that cross your mind will be true are there is always one or two fact here or there that will prove it...

 

[Legion]

True , i have always wondering , what if someone with very hight perc hunt medium mobs , since he will probably never get perc , he is condaned to just lose his ass?

And what about if i chip perc , will my next loot be ATH , since i just got like 10 000 green line in 1 go ?


and lets say all those skill give hint to where go what kill when drop bomb.... how it come those who follow that system have less ped on their card then average joe ?

If you got very high perception yes you will have a lower chance of gettign a perc in certain situations. But the skills are also (atleast i think so) depending to what mob and maturity you are hunting. Ie if you go hunt argo young and got 200 hp and 8k in skills you will hardly have any big chance to get a lot of skillgains. Instead go hunt bigger mobs and you should most likley see an increase in skillgains and thus also perc.

The main problem with this however is that not many people can handle those big mobs so nobody put them in into their la's with uber maturity. And also, the la owners put WAY to big spawns on their la's so using the skillgains to try and decide where to go is almost impossible except for a general direction, but you end up having to cut through 200 mobs just to get to the right one. That's my main reason for not hunting on la's any more.

But i can tell you this, every single global i gotten this week has been after a perc or certain other skillgain.

 

[MilkeN]

But i can tell you this, every single global i gotten this week has been after a perc or certain other skillgain.

PLEASE... explain how the perc system works on The Eviscerator. Where non global loots are rare, and non item loot is even more rare...

 

[Bosko]

Some things never change in PE/EU (like continuous perception discussion) .

Here is my contribution on the subject from 2006.

 

[DoubleWolf]

Why would MA code something like this into the system?

I go to Occam's Razor for this one:

"The simplest explanation is more likely the correct one"

The simplest explanation is that there is NO correlation between green line messages and good loots. You're simply trying to see patterns in things (which is a normal human instinct) to make sense of the world around you, but often times that leads you to false conclusions.

What you need is a way to test this theory. Every working theory needs some some way to test the validity of it, where if the test fails, then the theory is deemed true for the time being and you come up with another test. You repeat this process until you have a working model.

Legion, it's like you're starting a religion in EU. God has never truly been proven to exist, so the idea of God is really just a theory. And anytime some evidence comes along that contradicts something in the religion, the followers either just deny the evidence or say "God works in mysterious ways". Here, you stick so tough to your skill gain theories it's ridiculous. Anytime the test fails, or it doesn't work out the way you predicted, you say that MA must have changed something in the system.

What's more likely? That MA is constantly changing things in the system trying to keep Legion guessing, or that your theories are simply just wrong and you can't accept that?

 

[mjukis]

It seems like almost all perc theorists prefer to go with gut feeling rather than statistical analysis. And I can understand why since there are so many variables to their theories what a skill gain can mean. Might I suggest that you tag a leviathan out to deep waters, far from any other mob, mining resource, city or other avatar and kill it, rinse and repeat for a few hours and then compare the loot and skill gains to a dense spawn. It would serve as a good starting point for further research and could possibly even disprove a theory right off the bat so you can move onto something else.
From a high level player's perspective I can say that regardless of what I'm hunting I can go for 40-50 minutes without a single perc gain, during which time I can receive several globals and items.

 

[Legion]

PLEASE... explain how the perc system works on The Eviscerator. Where non global loots are rare, and non item loot is even more rare...

As i said a person hunting evis probably has a very high perc and other skills making it harder to get it, and it's not only for big loots, it's most often for an item in the loot.

It seems like almost all perc theorists prefer to go with gut feeling rather than statistical analysis. And I can understand why since there are so many variables to their theories what a skill gain can mean. Might I suggest that you tag a leviathan out to deep waters, far from any other mob, mining resource, city or other avatar and kill it, rinse and repeat for a few hours and then compare the loot and skill gains to a dense spawn. It would serve as a good starting point for further research and could possibly even disprove a theory right off the bat so you can move onto something else.
From a high level player's perspective I can say that regardless of what I'm hunting I can go for 40-50 minutes without a single perc gain, during which time I can receive several globals and items.

Yep true, i'm a gut guy, mainly because i suck at logic. If you read up on how very right brain dominant ppl work you will understand how i do things. It's completely backwards most often. For example in maths, i can often see roughly what the answer should be but i dont know the formula to calc it, and i start to do the math from backwards sort of.

And as for the stuff about pulling a mob far away, i have actually one sure way to test one skill which i have told people about. But they must be doing it wrong because it was not very conclusive, still it works almost 100% for me, IF i run far enough. And this test is very very precise.

 

[MilkeN]

As i said a person hunting evis probably has a very high perc and other skills making it harder to get it, and it's not only for big loots, it's most often for an item in the loot.

You dont understand, about 9 off 10 loot is a item. The perc gain dont matter, if it do come or not. The loot is still the same, 9 off 10 loot is item...
So the loot where there is no item, is alot more rare then a loot whit item, and the skills you clame points you to bigger loots, or even item dont add up!

So you dont understand that to get a return around 90% (in the long run, that most hunting loggs do show) needs to have some "bigger loots" / globals to get there... ?
Item in loot, well if you kill let's say 10k feffoid you will loot XX number off H400, and you can calc that whit every XXX kill I can expect to loot a H400. Then you have a ruff number off who common a item is.

Then wait a moth, to the same thing again whit 10k kills... wait another moth and do 10k again... Calc all that together you will see. There is noting to tells you where to find loot, or where you might find a item in loot. You will learn that the system we have a "base code" on drop on everything... just do a random hunt and get lucky and loot some stuff dont tell you a thing...

 

[DoubleWolf]

I suppose that it's only fair that I call myself out a little bit here, as I'm one that believes in a few different theories as well (and my soc mates may read some of this... )

I tend to follow the 90% average return theorists, though I have some theories that go a little deeper than that. Some of my soc mates probably think I'm a little bonkers with some of the things I come up with. But I continually offer up hypotheses that can be tested by anyone that wants to participate. If the hypothesis is wrong, then I come up with a new hypothesis to test. Even if it's right, I try to come up with new ways to prove it false. Eventually, through lots of different tests, the theory should get narrowed down to where it's a reliable, working model, or there is just too much contradictory evidence for any of it to be true. I'm willing to throw it all out if it doesn't work.

If you come up with a theory, you have to hate it and constantly fight to prove it wrong. Until there is just no possible way that it could be anything but right. Or at least so that it works and is reliable, until something else comes along to test it. For thousands of years, people thought the sun revolved around the earth. Ancient people were able to accurately predict the movement and position of the sun, the other planets and the stars as they moved across the sky. From this, they learned the correct time to harvest their crops, and it worked for them. Even though it was all based on incorrect assumptions.

This is the difference between science and religion. Religion comes up with a "theory" and no one bothers to question it or even attempt to prove it wrong because they love it so much. Some religions even suggest that if you question it, you will spend eternity burning in hell. Science is constantly evolving and testing theories for a better understanding. The whole world "believes" in gravity, but that too is just a theory that is open to testing. It could be proven false, at least in our current understanding of it. There's no question that when you let go of an object, it will fall to the ground, but we still don't know exactly how it works.

With skill gain theories, there doesn't seem to be any way to prove it wrong. Every time something doesn't work, it's because MA changed something. But this doesn't mean it's correct. There is just no way to truly test it. I've seen some theories that suggest if you get a skill gain on a drop in mining, you should try bombing in 3-6 different places, and you're bound to find something. In 3-6 drops, you're likely to find something anyways. However, if that doesn't work 100% of the time, you have to conclude that the theory is false.

A WORKING theory isn't true just some of the time, it's true ALL of the time...

 

[JohnCapital]

Out of ALL the possible loot theories, I think this is the one that creates the most amount of heated arguments. (With the exception of the "MA favors specific players" line, but that's another story.)

So I'd like to ask all folks in this thread to remember to take a deep breath and relax a few seconds before writing your reply in order to reduce any potential insults and name calling.

 

[aridash]

Very simple explanation. Even if your on the roughly same skill level your not exactly the same, and thus some will have a harder time to get he percgain than others, but also there is a certan % chance to get each skillgain and thus it could end up just being one who get's it.

If you got very high perception yes you will have a lower chance of gettign a perc in certain situations.

oh dear. you dont watch or test for much do you, and logic is a big fail (what ever you asy about right side dominate)

skill gains are not effected by the amount of skill you have - fact. the *amount* of skill increase for each green line might change (and is variable at any level anyway), but you'll get just as many green lines at 1000 as at 5000. simple observation and basic recording can prove this to anyone.

as for logic, you are suggesting that as a avatar improves their perc skill their perception for loot gets worse come off it, why would this be done? utterly illogical, its inconsistant with everything else in the game.

 

[Legion]

You dont understand, about 9 off 10 loot is a item. The perc gain dont matter, if it do come or not. The loot is still the same, 9 off 10 loot is item...
So the loot where there is no item, is alot more rare then a loot whit item, and the skills you clame points you to bigger loots, or even item dont add up!

so your saying in almost every loot you get either a fap, gun armorpart or such?

 

[MilkeN]

so your saying in almost every loot you get either a fap, gun armorpart or such?

Yes, the loot from The Eviscerator is: Armor, weapon or amp. Rare loot is TT junk, offen whit a small esi...


One more thing, we do have some mobs that dont have (L) items in loot, and have Extremely rare unL items in loot... dont perc work on this mobs then ?

Mobs are: Calypsocod, Chirpy, Diripi, Fungoid, Gibnib, Gokibusagi, Igni, Merp, Pupugi, Snarg, Tantillion & Turp.

And there are more mobs that have rare (L) loot to, when you loot 1 in about 500-1000ped spent.

Yes, I did look at entropdia.info. If perc work on Snabel and that low mobs, what all off this mobs then ?

Just becouse you "might see" something on 2-4 mobs, that fints whit this thing, dont mean it work. Just that the items are very common (I guess that items in loot that you mean is unL TT food (under +10ped MU) or (L) under 110%)

 

[Lugzan]

Yep true, i'm a gut guy, mainly because i suck at logic. If you read up on how very right brain dominant ppl work you will understand how i do things. It's completely backwards most often. For example in maths, i can often see roughly what the answer should be but i dont know the formula to calc it, and i start to do the math from backwards sort of...

yes, that could give quite a lot of room to imagination... =)

I'd recommend some basic logic courses. even youtube has many available, for instance these series.

this is all the help I could give to the believers, you must understand logic before you can prove or disprove any idea/theory.


J.

 

[Legion]

yes, that could give quite a lot of room to imagination... =)

I'd recommend some basic logic courses. even youtube has many available, for instance these series.

this is all the help I could give to the believers, you must understand logic before you can prove or disprove any idea/theory.


J.

well i understand logic and how to do it. It's just that my brain does not work well with it. I'm trying to make it work better though on the left side

 

[Skaffen]

Pneuro-Science

well i understand logic and how to do it. It's just that my brain does not work well with it. I'm trying to make it work better though on the left side

Interesting, very interesting.

Diagnosis anyone?

 

[Luna D]

what if perception is just about fruits/dung/gems on ground ?

 

[Einstein]

I've noticed while camping steelbirds the last week with apis that after a riffle skill increase i more often get a loot than a no loot msg.

 

[MilkeN]

Legion, still no answer on my last post... that's sad.


Just one more thing, I found this in a thread here on the forum...

"Message from support:
Unfortunately loot is not created until you actually loot the creatures. Hence we have no possibility to see anywhere in our logs what would have been on a creature that was never looted. "

If the creators off the game dont know what will be in a loot, who can perc then see in to the future ?

 

[mastermesh]

noticed a perc gain last night right before I saw several mobs respawn, so maybe it just has to do something with where the mobs appear, not anything else... as far as mining goes, there is an old theory that more ores might appear near large spawns as it's a more dangerous location to mine, so there might be something there if that is what it has to do with it, but I suspect it's just another random skill gain that's there so MA doesn't have to give you more green lines in your main skills, hence making it tougher to sell out later.

 

[wizzszz]

Legion, still no answer on my last post... that's sad.

Legion doesn't reply to infidels - this way he doesn't have to prove anything!

"Message from support:
Unfortunately loot is not created until you actually loot the creatures. Hence we have no possibility to see anywhere in our logs what would have been on a creature that was never looted. "

If the creators off the game dont know what will be in a loot, who can perc then see in to the future ?

Awesome!

Perception Myth Busted

 

[Parlog]

Perc can mean many things, its not a very valid indicator for good loot:

It basically means, that there is something near you. This could be a claimrod, a tower, another player, a mob with good loot and bigger than average mining find, maybe even a vehicle.

It can also mean "near you" in a timely matter, soon a loot cycle is over, a long dry phase usually gets introduced with 3-4 perc skillups, where you think youre sooo near to the biggie and after hours of losing ped you found out youre not. It can mean after a long dry phase that you get loot again soon.

Sometimes its absolutely accurate and points you directly to the swirlies, sometimes it betrays you and only shows you other players. Strange enough it seems to point you especially on those who seem to be the biggest competitor in your spawn.

thats what i make out of my percs ... hehe and some more

 

[Legion]

Legion, still no answer on my last post... that's sad.


Just one more thing, I found this in a thread here on the forum...

"Message from support:
Unfortunately loot is not created until you actually loot the creatures. Hence we have no possibility to see anywhere in our logs what would have been on a creature that was never looted. "

If the creators off the game dont know what will be in a loot, who can perc then see in to the future ?

I did answer it. It's not the loot per see, but the multiplier and also the indicator if there is an item in the loot. Exactly what item it does not say however.

 

[Amenophis]

Perception will not show you a mob or a claim. It will, in the most fortunate case point you to a "hot" area. The hot area is generally big enough to make you spend the tt value of the hof while trying to locate it . On very few occasions, you'll have the right gear, the right spot, the right time ... on most occasions you'll get in the right spot soon after the loot gets won by a competitor, get signals for a gd, walk over a huge claim to be won by a newbie ...

PS: Parlog said something similar but I would add that a suite of percs on an empty spawn area says that a new spawn is coming soon.

 

[mastermesh]

. It will, in the most fortunate case point you to a "hot" area.

In casinos, the loosest slots are typically the ones nearest the entrance and the ones nearest the bathrooms because the owners of those casinos know that people in those areas will be tempted to come back out on the floor if they hear someone winning a jackpot near where they are (even if the winning is less then the player that is winning put in to the machine)... If this hot spot theory is true, perception is just another loud bell and whistle, calling you back in to the gaming area. Nothing more... Just because a slot is loose does not mean it'll be the winning game that will pay out the most, it'll just get you closer to a break even zone.

Those that really "want to win" in a casino know not to play against the house - they play against other participants in games like blackjack, table games, etc. In EU the closest thing we have to that is called trading.

 

[wobbledag]

I think perc just increases your luck factor for a few minutes

 

[Miles]

The wonderful, magical world of Perception Faith

Let's do a little rundown.

Perception means:
Big Loot Nearby, or
Big Claim Nearby, or
Big Loot Soon, or
Big Claim Soon, or
Avatar Entering Radar Range, or
A New Spawn is Coming Soon, or
Fruit, Rocks, Dung Nearby, or
Area is "Hot", or
...

I'm sure I've missed some - I've know I've heard many more.

The fact is, if you change your behavior at all based on getting a Perception gain, you have already set forth on the path of self-reinforcing delusion. Anything that happens next you will judge to be a result of it. Further instances will not necessarily back it up (of course), but since you can always fall back on another "meaning", your superstition will be safe long enough for another "correct" coincidence to occur and further validate your faith.

In the meantime, there are a multitude of logical and practical reasons why all of this is complete B.S. and if you were to ignore you Perception gains - not change any behavior because of it - you would find that the same things do (or don't) happen afterward. These reasons have been stated in this and every other perception thread, and are duly ignored or explained away with with more mumbo jumbo, so I will not waste time and repeat them now.

I will however, stop referring to this a theory. Now I will call it by a more accurate name - Perception Faith.

The first tenet of Perception Faith is to deny logic. Everything else flows quite neatly from there.



Miles

 

[wobbledag]

Perception denier!

 

[Legion]

Let's do a little rundown.

Perception means:
Big Loot Nearby, or
Big Claim Nearby, or
Big Loot Soon, or
Big Claim Soon, or
Avatar Entering Radar Range, or
A New Spawn is Coming Soon, or
Fruit, Rocks, Dung Nearby, or
Area is "Hot", or
...

I'm sure I've missed some - I've know I've heard many more.

The fact is, if you change your behavior at all based on getting a Perception gain, you have already set forth on the path of self-reinforcing delusion. Anything that happens next you will judge to be a result of it. Further instances will not necessarily back it up (of course), but since you can always fall back on another "meaning", your superstition will be safe long enough for another "correct" coincidence to occur and further validate your faith.

In the meantime, there are a multitude of logical and practical reasons why all of this is complete B.S. and if you were to ignore you Perception gains - not change any behavior because of it - you would find that the same things do (or don't) happen afterward. These reasons have been stated in this and every other perception thread, and are duly ignored or explained away with with more mumbo jumbo, so I will not waste time and repeat them now.

I will however, stop referring to this a theory. Now I will call it by a more accurate name - Perception Faith.

The first tenet of Perception Faith is to deny logic. Everything else flows quite neatly from there.



Miles

Well i dont change my behaviour, i have a set of rules to follow for each skillgain and follow that. Only time i change is when i belive i have a certain skill wrong and then i might change that particular skill but then i follow the rules again and see if that works better. Right now it works pretty darn good

 

[MilkeN]

I did answer it. It's not the loot per see, but the multiplier and also the indicator if there is an item in the loot. Exactly what item it does not say however.

No, you did not. Why dont perc gain all the time when we hunt The Evis, when normal loot is item only ?
Why do we get perc gain om mobs that dont have item in loot... well, maby a 12ped ESI after 10k kills... will be many perc gains before that loot will come.

Perc have been around for many years in here, it's started whit something in mining and ends whit so many meanings. Who did perc work before (L) armor was in loot, (L) armor is a big part off the loot on some mobs. Did it not work right back then or did they change the hole skill system when (L) armor did come ?
Go back some more time, who did the perc system work when the (L) weapns start to come in the loot ?

So first we got the skill nerf, a rewite off the skill system...
and then come, the (L) weapons, again a new skill system...
and then come, the (L) armors, again a new skill system...
and then come... how in hell did MA have time to go to VU10...

Well i dont change my behaviour, i have a set of rules to follow for each skillgain and follow that. Only time i change is when i belive i have a certain skill wrong and then i might change that particular skill but then i follow the rules again and see if that works better. Right now it works pretty darn good

To use some numbers off return, I will use Noiseless Hunting log ( https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?168760-Noiseless-Hunting-Log/page26 ). Post 253 you have a the numbers. There you will have some numbers off return in the long run. You can se that he almost have a 90% TT return, in order to get there you will get minor loot, globals, hofs... if all loot was 90% off the cost, who fun will that be ?

And the biggest thing, is when support did say that loot is created when a mob is looted, becouse kill cost DO matter. Try it, use something like P5a/105 and kill 1k Atrox, and look for the lowest loot (no loot or blazar/nova dont count). Then use HL8 and do 1k kills again, and you will end up whit 2 diffrent lowest loot. HL8 will give you the lowest loot, becouse you less dmg to the mob. Even whit crits, loot will get lower becouse you will do less dmg...*
Whit items, there is x% drop rate, thats kinda a give on. Do some kills and you will know...

There is no skill that points you to a loot that is not created before you loot it. If loot is created before it's killed and looted, what is then loot based on ?
P.S. MM have a higher price becouse off high dps VS. the eco off imkII. Becouse MA puts in mobs that is high regen and a faster kill is a cheaper one... but on the other hand, what do the most skilld players off this game know...

*Was bord and did test whit some weapons on feffoid. The diff from P5a+106 and H41+Beast was 13pec, if I remeber it right.