Question: Percetange of claims found(hit rate)

Hit Ratings for today and returns

HR 47,62% TT return 151,76%
HR 44,44% TT return 195,89%
HR 29% TT return 92,88%
HR 37% TT return 100,50%

I cannot complain, but had a 2 multi's
 
Hit Ratings for today and returns

HR 47,62% TT return 151,76%
HR 44,44% TT return 195,89%
HR 29% TT return 92,88%
HR 37% TT return 100,50%

I cannot complain, but had a 2 multi's
I dont know how many drops this is but i would say that anything less than 5k drops doesnt really post any real statistical signifigance. And even that data doesnt really tell you too much.
 
Still going.. LBML missed 3 drops today, when my amp gets fully depleted before repairing it can miss last drop so its actually even worse than shown. 448 double drops not a single global 76.84% return. TT return % is going down further, HR is the same. This is small run even but wanted to have a picture before it started to bug out on me and have to delete the run so it doesn't look like I'm making it up. 500-1000p losses a day is some hunting losses not small amp mining losses in formerly stable areas.

Still broken and/or Happy Nusul Day isn't paid off yet as of 2/4/26.

index.php
 
I dont know how many drops this is but i would say that anything less than 5k drops doesnt really post any real statistical signifigance. And even that data doesnt really tell you too much.

Thats why I do monthly results

Edit : and I never go for quantity, quality with high MU's make it so much easier to get possitive numbers.
 
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I dont know how many drops this is but i would say that anything less than 5k drops doesnt really post any real statistical signifigance. And even that data doesnt really tell you too much.
For hunting my own own numbers so far show that at 10k loot events per sample we will still be something like +/- 11% from expected. At 100k we still have plenty of variance (just woke up, can check later).

What people need to do to get somewhat reasonable numbers in here is to gather 20-30 miners and collect data together and make sure none is excluded and make sure how you track is consistent.

Samples of hundred drops or thousands drops says absolutely nothing.
 
Samples of hundred drops or thousands drops says absolutely nothing.

Ive been saying that for years ...

All I see in my stats daily/weekly/monthly is that I have (reasonable) ups and down, even with low skills and basic mining gear

Getting less fillers and more higher MU makes it so much easier when mining unamped.
 
It really depends on what I am mining but as an example, I can cycle ~ 3k PED with ~3xx drops(loot events) per hour, excavation included and I've played a lot each day.I've lost more in a week than I usually lose in one month or two(before VU 19.13.1 - 27.01.2026 I could easily lose few K ped in a single day but with 30.xx% hit rate never this amount in a week). By doing a lot of drops I could get to that average and it's not the case anymore.
I say it again, in the light of the recent events I am only asking if it's working as intended.
 
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I understand your point. But here are we speaking about something else. Last VU did give almost to everyone same HR . Is not that only a few have this problem. Something is changed. Maybe is a bug like was on space mining or maybe this is the new sistem for planet-side mining. That is what we are asking right now.
It's not entirely different, but at the end of the day all you'd need to do is plug in your hit rates from maybe a month or two ago into that calculator to generate confidence intervals. Then do the same for decent size runs today. If the confidence intervals overlap, then you can't say there was actually a change in base hit rate and it's instead just random chance that people are interpreting as trend.

If there isn't overlap though, then you can say there was a significant difference (or statistically significant decrease). That's why when people post hit rates without a measure of variation like confidence intervals, it's a meaningless stat if you're trying to say returns are worse due to something outside of random variation. You also don't need a sample size of 100k+ (as long as you do the statistical analysis) because things like confidence intervals or slightly more involved statistical tests are telling you where the average would fall if you did go for 100k samples by using maybe a couple k samples instead. For hit rate, it's actually easier than most other stats because it's a binomial response, so all you need is number of claims and total sample size or drops to start giving confidence intervals. If there was a serious drop in HR, we should be able to show that here if people include both claim and drop numbers.

One caveat with the discussion though is that we know the mining loot pool does have overall swings based on when EL was good at tracking. It could be we are in one of those troughs that's a part of normal loot pool mechanics rather than something MA-directed.

That's all not to say people are absolutely wrong here, but rather that there are a few common pitfalls that come up when people say something like hit rate or TT returns have changed when they really haven't (i.e., seeing trends that are instead just randomness).
 
Lower HR ... Lower returns ...

Seen it all before ... many times ... maybe there is a ATH in the making ... :unsure:
 
Samples of hundred drops or thousands drops says absolutely nothing.
My caveat with that is definitely true if people are talking about just raw numbers. A couple hundred or thousand drops can be more than enough for statistical tests though that I mention above or some of the testing Leeloo, myself, and others have done in my signature as well as just above this. A good example of this what excavator enhancer testing where 70 pulls was enough to detect a statistical difference, you didn't need 10,000+ pulls. Hit rate is different than TT per pull obviously. If for instance I wanted to formally detect if the hit rate between two "runs" decreased from 32 to 28% in a statistical test, I'd need a sample size of 800 claims. Bump that down to 30 vs 28% and you'd at least 3160 samples to detect that difference.

I mention that because this problem is exactly something we go over when teaching intro statistical analysis courses. If you try to just get a massive sample size without any measure of variation, it's still a largely meaningless stat that you can maybe spitball with a little. If you do try to formally analyze a huge sample size, you also run into issues where you might detect a slight difference as "significant" that isn't really relevant. Plus, it's time intensive and expensive. Instead you want a representative sample size where sometimes 30-100 samples is plenty, other times you need thousands. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you can get people with a tiny sample size with no statistical measures claiming this coin must be rigged because they flipped it four times and got heads each time.

Usually in classes we'll be navigating that very subject with students and how you reach a minimum required sample size needed for statistical tests to be accurate representations of what the "true" average in a population. Sometimes in these discussions on PCF though, we'll get people just sticking to a mantra of saying you can't say anything unless you have over 100k samples. That completely ignores what's being taught on basically day 1 statistics. That's not to say you or anyone else here is falling into that pitfall, but that just seemed like a good cue to remind people about how sample size is navigated.
 
Just my 2 pecs, i dont mine much, only dailies on arkadia and sometimes on aris. 90% of times i am finishing lvl 5 amp with return around 65% and hit rate around 25%. Ground feels so empty right now.
 
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Just my 2 pecs, i dont mine much, only dailies on arkadia and sometimes on aris. 90% of times i am finishing lvl 5 amp with return around 65% and hit rate around 25%. Ground feels so empty right now.
Arkadia was more stable too even tho there's less mats there than caly, people like me would mine there for that reason. I tried again last night on ark where almost half of my days were in the green TT wise and got my best return in days 85%. Seen another miner who mines 15 hrs a day out of no where says "mining return is 80% I'm stopping until its fixed" this person didn't even write in this post. It's definitely broken noticeable by all full time miners can we get a fix please.

@Socrates|Mindark
 
Arkadia was more stable too even tho there's less mats there than caly, people like me would mine there for that reason. I tried again last night on ark where almost half of my days were in the green TT wise and got my best return in days 85%. Seen another miner who mines 15 hrs a day out of no where says "mining return is 80% I'm stopping until its fixed" this person didn't even write in this post. It's definitely broken noticeable by all full time miners can we get a fix please.

@Socrates|Mindark
Yeah i will be sitting this out too till somethings said. What happened to this game :(
 
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Yeah i will be sitting this out too till somethings said. What happened to this game :(
Rightt what the hell I thought they finally got rid of the big 3 mine bots at least so mining could be good for a change. Now I'm thinking that they probably weren't even banned and just had this data faster than we did since they got numerous accounts running at same time 15 hrs a day. Ehhh
 
Rightt what the hell I thought they finally got rid of the big 3 mine bots at least so mining could be good for a change. Now I'm thinking that they probably weren't even banned and just had this data faster than we did since they got numerous accounts running at same time 15 hrs a day. Ehhh
Or maybe they've made it a lot harder because of those bots, to reduce the chance of happening again and discourage them, but needs an adjustment for sure.
 
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Or maybe they've made it a lot harder because of those bots, to reduce the chance of happening again and discourage them, but needs an adjustment for sure.
That would be a terrible way to go about get 1 payback a year where only a bot could reach with so many loot instances and regular Joe would still have to quit. So that makes even less sense idk what they or the AI did lol but it ain't good either way
 
That would be a terrible way to go about get 1 payback a year where only a bot could reach with so many loot instances and regular Joe would still have to quit. So that makes even less sense idk what they or the AI did lol but it ain't good either way
Yes, looks broken in the current state.Needs a rebalacing or an price reset for the resources because of how it is which will take time.Without an official stand we can only speculate...
 
or an price reset for the resources

The reset for the MUs will happen automatically if the undercutters/cheap sellers continue to lose enough.

Don't forget that MA also announced that new BPs would be coming, which may be why the drop rate/returns have fallen.

In any case, it wouldn't be a bad thing if this caused the economy to rise again.
 
Did 494 double drops on NI to try there and hit a bunch of globals and many multis just under, which for my level 4 amp would be a nice TT+ every time. So I'm like wooot finally its fixed maybe. Sure enough still low 29% hit rate slightly higher than the 28% its been but not where its supposed to be or used to be so it still ended in a loss. 95% return which for hunters would be like oh ok that's not bad. But for everyday 79,80, and one 85% day etc. and the rebalance day being 95% does not = out to ~97% average that mining tends to be about with no looter skills influencing it. Seems like HR is still the problem here. The hours I spend mining with the faster gear I have would be like a couple weeks of casual player by now. Mining was perfect no reason to touch it. Just mine bots, not enough uses, releasing bigger and more UL's(P50s etc.), and still having mining mats in asteroids are the only problems facing mining profession/mining economy at the moment. Hoping for a word from MA on if the change is actually intended and just more volatile, or are we just lighting extra cash on fire for fun.

index.php
 
After 10 more days of mining my HR - TT return - TT return+% dropped also.

Am I worried?
Not at all cause TT+% is still 116,80% and if I look at my results from Dec 2025 the results now are still better, but I assume they will drop cause my 2026 start was pretty good.
Why HR dropped? 1 of the resources I usual get (15-20% in the run with the high +150% MU) was not dropping anymore but I could see that on auc so I stopped mining.


Februari 6 th

HitRateTT returnTT +%TinyVPPoorSmallModestAverageMediumAmpleConsidSizableLargeAbunGreatSubstantial
AverageAverageAverage23456789101112131415
30,47%98,80%116,80%4,42%24,52%0,74%0,00%0,15%0,32%0,00%0,18%0,01%0,02%0,05%0,06%0,00%0,00%
 
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Have you all been mining at arkadia?
Mining there last night and got crushed.

0/10 do not recommend.

Just to further pile on this thread looks like there were adjustments made to crafting aswell as mining, bp drop rate has been heavily lowered. It looks like there was an attempt at balancing and they absolutely punted it.
 
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Mining there last night and got crushed.

0/10 do not recommend.

Just to further pile on this thread looks like there were adjustments made to crafting aswell as mining, bp drop rate has been heavily lowered. It looks like there was an attempt and balancing and they absolutely punted it.

I can`t prove anything since i`m not working for MA but i think it`s by design. Think about WHO benefits on such changes and what is the impact on the economy, deposits, etc.
I hope i`m wrong and there will be a rollback to where we have less crap results but as it stands, i feel i`m in 2008 ish again minus the large extreme finds.
 
Todays mining run. 200 ped double drop on ARIS.
ore 26% e-matter 33% (average. 28%) tt return 79.12%
No claims bigger than a size 5.
Pretty poor :(
 
I did a mining experiment a while ago (start of 2024).
All unamped. Argus. 100-200 drops/day based on my availability.

There was a 17 days straight period with the following stats:
TT in: 2.434,05
TT out: 2.029,5
Return: 83,38%
TT loss: 404.55

Worst %returns days during that period: 49% on 100 drops and 55% on 200 drops.
Yes, i came that day to the field with 100 peds probes + finder decay and left with 50 peds in ores. But...

Total log: 96% TT return. ~10k drops

Manage your risk and keep grinding for MU.
There will be shitty periods. But it will always return to the mean.
 
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Just my 2 pecs, i dont mine much, only dailies on arkadia and sometimes on aris. 90% of times i am finishing lvl 5 amp with return around 65% and hit rate around 25%. Ground feels so empty right now.
Turns out if you complain, you get an ATL. Todays lvl 5 amp ended with 19% hitrate and 49% return. Its time to stop i guess.
 
I agree with OP that something doesn't add up. We need an official statement or I will stop mining.

Double drop: 451 drops - 26% hitrate and 90,1% return. Swirls: 212, 197 and 67.
ENM only: 60 drops - 20% hitrate and 51% return.
Double drop: 360 drops - 26% hitrate and 92,2% return. Swirls: 268, 53 and 58.
Double drop: 212 drops - 27% hitrate and 123% return. Swirls: 173, 162 and 230.

Updating this along the way.
 
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