Research about loot multipliers frequency in hunting.

shoti

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As some of you are already aware there are few possible loot action outcomes when you looting killed mobs. Most of loot values don't cover kill cost or equal, it and fall into category „base loot”. But some loot actions exceedes even greatly kill cost and are known among comunity as so called „multis”. I spend some time to investigate that more and here is how I performed that and what are results.


Setup and conditions:

Test were performed on Sabakuma Hatchling, Cadatergus Puny as 1st group and Longu Young as 2nd group.
Sabakumas were killed with Lacerating attack chip 1, no armor, no fap – that resulted in kill within 2-3 shots in 99% cases if no miss/evade involved. Moderate overkill sometimes.
Caudatergus were killed with Lacerating attack chip 3, no armor, no fap – that reulted in kill with 2 shots in 99% cases if no miss/evade involved. Moderate overkill sometimes.
Longus were killed with maxed Shaghadi disintegration sword (no amp) and Philospher sword ( finisher, no amp ) – minimal overkill, armor Nemesis, Faping beetween mobs with Herb Box.
Sabakumas were kiled in Half Moon Bay area, Caudatergus in camp icarus and Longus on LA W of Reis Defence TP. Tests were performed in similar time of the day as much as it was possible. Before each test group I deceided to perform crafting and mining run till hitting in those proffesions good multiplier to minimize impact of possible cross proffesion compensation.

I was hunting same maturity mob with same gear in each test group. Same weapon, same armor, same fap. I counted loot actions needed before „multiplier event” occured (loot higher than base loot, In this case higher than base loot starting from x3 multiplier. If there was problem with clasification of certain loot like f.e. base loot caudatergus puny 0,03ped to 0,08ped looted 0,19 ped and is imposible to say if that was exceptionaly good base loot or already multiplied poor base loot, then that loot was counted toward non multiplier ones. For example on Punys multiplier loot was counted above 0,24 ped. If multiplier occured I started new count.

Multipliers were occuring as fast as 1 loot action (that mean next one, f.e. 2 globals in a row) and as late as 137 loot actions. I deceided to exclude that extreme values as it were incidental and hapened once or twice in each test group. Then I split multiplier event occurance into equal classes 10 events wide from 2-10 events till 91-101 events. So f.e. multiplier event occurance in class 51-60 means that i have to kill between 51-61 mobs to receive loot multiplier. After killing 2824 punys and 2979 longus i got such distribution in each class.


Results:

Sabakumas and Caudatergus


Classgraphical representationNo. of multipliers
2-10oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo30
11-20ooooooooooooooooooo19
21-30ooooooooooooooooo17
31-40ooooooooooo11
41-50oooo4
51-60oooo4
61-70ooo3
71-80ooo3
81-90oo2
91-101oo2



Longus

Classgraphical representationNo. of multipliers
2-10ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo29
11-20ooooooooooooooooooo19
21-30ooooooooooooooo15
31-40ooooooooooo11
41-50oooooooo8
51-60oooooo6
61-70ooo3
71-80oo2
81-90oo2
91-101oooo4



Conclusion and other finds :

Multiplier occurance in both groups is surprisingly similar. That might suggest some coded in loot algo function which is managing avatar returns to stated by MA 97%, and not being random, and not needing of loot tracking per avatar.

66 out of 95 puny mobs multipliers occured within first 3 clases, and 63 out of 99 longu multipliers occured within first 3 classes. That mean roughly 2/3 of multipliers you receive occurs during 30 loot actions. That might have impact of bankroll management and overall returns if managed correctly.

Also I did not noticed correlation between multiplier occurance and its value, however tests were not focusing on that. I have data about mutiplier value so might analyze that later .

Seems if you got bad looting streak like over 30 loot actions without multiplier it may last so long that you will not recoup your loss even when u get one. Especially if it will be low one up to x50

During tests i managed to get x800 multiplier on sabakuma hatchling wchich resulted in 16 ped global ;( and some x100 multipliers on punys which resulted some 5 peders.

Thereis visible some increase in number of multipliers in last class of long lasting "chains of loot actions" without multiplier on longus which might suggest that bad streaks are somehow capped with increasing probablity of receiving multiplier on larger mobs but more research and data would be needed to confirming this as this events are extremly rare. During almost 6k test kils longest event without multiplier was 137 loot actions ( and there is small possiblity i just missed it as rest of multipliers occured within 101 loot actions in both groups).


TL-DR:

If you hunting and not geting multiplied loot during first 30 kills switch mob to some low ped/kill one and kill cheap ones till you get any multi. Then back to previous expensive activity. That seems saving money.
 
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DavinFelth

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Thanks for sharing all that. Seems like I have been doing that right sometimes. Sounds like I need to do some more kills, but often when I hunt Prots, Levi, or Feffox if I don't see a decent loot around 20 kills in I switch. That's been my sense - that if they aren't doing well and high volitle mob then switching is better because time I do get a multiplyer it won't recoup losses. I'll try more near 30, tyvm
 

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This could be an interesting little project but I'm afraid the 'multi' hunt is a wild goose chase and can often lead to ingame bankruptcy while trying to figure a pattern that it's just not there...
I like camping mobs and I've done it for weeks, months and even years meaning I've punched through bad loot periods and I can tell you after tracking a lot of kills that multis have no major impact in your long term results. What does actually impact your results long term is hunting for "phat" loots on stupid mobs like prots and feffox. I can understand hunting something fun (I do it too occasonally), accepting the loss due to no markup and temporary tt loss due to volatility, but expecting good results (or worse, a miracle :D ) in such cases or blaming anyone else than yourself for often going on a very small hunt on a is mob is quite common and stupid.

Also, why would someone use finisher in 2020?
 

shoti

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Also, why would someone use finisher in 2020?
To exclude or reduce to minimum possibility that overkill impacts mutiplier frequency as it was not subject of this tests. It was not fun do it but it was purely for methodological corectness.
 

shoti

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This could be an interesting little project but I'm afraid the 'multi' hunt is a wild goose chase and can often lead to ingame bankruptcy while trying to figure a pattern that it's just not there...
I like camping mobs and I've done it for weeks, months and even years meaning I've punched through bad loot periods and I can tell you after tracking a lot of kills that multis have no major impact in your long term results.[...]
It's not case here. Above tests not showing that there is multiplier pattern for its size . It "only" shows that frequency of mutipliers while being randomized keeps itself within certain rannges of loot action chains and obviously is not distributed equally. There are many ways of utilising that for own advantage, from simple makig bankroll swings via many hunting runs more predictable, to for example utilising that to winning events organised on LA's.
 

DavinFelth

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I like camping mobs and I've done it for weeks, months and even years meaning I've punched through bad loot periods and I can tell you after tracking a lot of kills that multis have no major impact in your long term results.
Would you care to share/recommend any mobs to camp? I've played long time like you and always open to some suggesstions to help me avoid spending $$$
 

Evey

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Would you care to share/recommend any mobs to camp? I've played long time like you and always open to some suggesstions to help me avoid spending $$$
Only you can make a list of recommended mobs for you, just address these parameters:
- do they have good MU?
- can I kill them for many hours;
- do I have to heal excessively? do I die a lot?

When you find a list of 3-4, you then try to do it minimizing mu input and maximizing mu output.
 
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shoti

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So.... I tryed to use logical consequences of test finds in some pratical way during hunt runs. Goal was to see if it is possible to keep your avatar in some scheduled manner as for in what class of mutiplier event occurance you spend most peds, and if that flattened somehow ped balance up and downs.

The procedure was as follow:
1. I go to half moon cove/icarus kill hatchlings/punys to reset my avatar multiplier counter on as cheap mob/kill as possible.
2. I killed hatchlings/punys till i receiced multiplier.
3. I continued killing hatchlings/punys there until reached 15 kills or multiplier. If i hit multiplier in less kills than 15 i started new count. If i didint hit multiplier i moved to more expensive mob per kill. Goal of that was to intentionally aim at class 11-20 and 21-30 with much higher costs and loot.
4. I moved to new spawn of "expensive" to kill mob and killed another 15 mobs. If i hit multiplier (mini/global/hof) during that 15 kills the run ended. More than 60% chances u will get multiplier on that expensive mob. If i didnt get multiplier during that 15 kills on "expensive" mob i head back to half moon/ikarus kill more punies/hatchlings ( bit over 30% cases) till i get multiplier on them, as that means i am in one of those unfriendly for my ped clases ( 31-40 till 91-101 ) and is stupid to spend peds at this condition and its better to cycle through that prolonged "non multiplier" period with as cheap loot action as possible.

Reasult was that most of such cycles ended with TT profit. At some point and with over 66% certain i was able to anticipate that with right selection of mob ( that mean with large enough HP )that even common multiplier like x10-x100 will result in mini/global/HoF and cost to obtain it was much less than mindles constant grind of just that one expensive mob. At some point I even reached 7 full cycles resulting in global during first 15 kills of atrox/ambulimax/argonauts/traeskerons and none multipliers at all on hatchling/punies during summarized over 200 kills on those.

Also as bonus i managed get 3rd place in highest single loot event lasting few hours while i was hunting just 15 mins in that event, repeating above procedure during it, and TPing between half moon/ icarus and event area, and using grindhouse tarantino/rodriguez gun while i was in class 11-20 and 21-30 for multiplier. That resulted with additional "boost" for base loot and multiplier in period when occurance of those was highest, and alowed me to land winning global in short time, and far less cost than other participants cycling their multiplier cycle just on event mob and area. That was streamed on twich.
 
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Alukat123

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Reasult was that most of such cycles ended with TT profit. At some point and with over 66% certain i was able to anticipate that with right selection of mob ( that mean with large enough HP )that even common multiplier like x10-x100 will result in mini/global/HoF and cost to obtain it was much less than mindles constant grind of just that one expensive mob. At some point I even reached 7 full cycles resulting in global during first 15 kills of atrox/ambulimax/argonauts/traeskerons and none multipliers at all on hatchling/punies during summarized over 200 kills on those.
it's not going to work forever. MA has backup mechanics in place that keep the returns in check. After 9 full cycles it should stop working and you may not even get a multiplier on the bigger stuff after 500 kills.

You're not the first trying that stuff =)
 

shoti

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it's not going to work forever. MA has backup mechanics in place that keep the returns in check. After 9 full cycles it should stop working and you may not even get a multiplier on the bigger stuff after 500 kills.

You're not the first trying that stuff =)

Only backup mechanism i can think of now for MA would be multiplier value cap, preventing using that for constant TT profiting. But since MA stated they are not tracking personal results, so no reason for it to be in place. In fact almost 6k kills from my initial tests showed that it is impossible to reach 500 kils without multiplier. I reached max 137 just once and i am not sure even i not missed one during that series. 99% of multipliers occured during 100 kills and some 66% during 30 kills.

Case is even if its caped to not alow profit TT it can be used in events, or for flatening balance rolercoaster, especialy at avatars who are whining at lower returns than 95% due to low turnover.

You obviously cant get even base multiplier x10 every few mobs constantly, let alone those realy rare like x100 or x 1000. But if u not geting multiplier on most kills then at least make sure that most is as cheap/kill as possible and switch for main gear/setup ( targeted expensive kills ) in period when thats most probable...so class 11-20 and 21-30.
 
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shoti

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Such mechanism would be caping multipliers value to make kinda MA stated cost to play an asypmtote, which makes MA sure they will get their money from participants. It would look sometihng like that :

Higher graph is uneco, MU wasting average Joe, L user , low skils, low budged for runs.
Lower graph is eco, MU saving uber player, unL top gear, hi skils, hi budget for runs.



but again :

- They are players here who profited from some lucky ATH and withdrawed.
- MA stated there is no personal pool ( in other worlds return tracking ).
- Everybody profiting TT at some point realtively to where they will set their reference point.
- It is easy to code such algoritm, make it semi ranodom in look, or even purely random at some small scale, and not fall under gambling law.
- None would loose money on purpose here if there wil be no winners or no winning for him at some point.
- In case special pool exists for large uber HoF's and ATH's why would MA forbid anyone for taking from it if thats their bussines model ?
 

bigPaul

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Sorry guys, but the result of these studies published in these forums is that IF they work MindArk will mess everything (more entropy !) in order to regain an advantage.


-->The same happened with Leeloo and mining : her fantastic studies in the Mining forum, pages and pages of hints, then MindArk adjusted the Mining System and now Leeloo doesn't even write anymore
.


In these forums you can have your moment of celebrity, but then "Entropy grows" and ruins all your studies.


Paul
 
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pechunter

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I suspected a long time now that 2.0 was a not that thought through panic solution. A built in non profit cap if u will. I`t removed almost all joy and exitment for me, they completely removed the luck factor. All big loots comes after a loosing streak and is followed by another loosing streak. "There is no personal loot pool"......
 

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I suspected a long time now that 2.0 was a not that thought through panic solution. A built in non profit cap if u will. I`t removed almost all joy and exitment for me, they completely removed the luck factor. All big loots comes after a loosing streak and is followed by another loosing streak. "There is no personal loot pool"......
For whatever reason that can be understand, MA say there is not personal pool, they won't admit and we whould not bother them with it. ( Maybe read between the lines :D )
I think all of this and what we discuss is due to some wierd law about gambling and not being tagged as online casino, something that MA must have done to be safe.

Cheers.
 

inkumario

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Also, why would someone use finisher in 2020?
finisher/no overkill > slightly lower cost per kill as long as ur not on a huge regen mob to mess it up worse, and smaller cost per kill = more kills more loot variety more mu per ped spent, so what does finisher in 2020 mean other than that, ofc not for huge mobs like u hunt, but smaller mobs like we hunt where its possible
 
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Alukat123

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finisher/no overkill > slightly lower cost per kill as long as ur not on a huge regen mob to mess it up worse, and smaller cost per kill = more kills more loot variety more mu per ped spent so what does finisher in 2020 mean other than that, ofc not for huge mobs like u hunt but smaller mobs we hunt where its possible
in teams you can even use finisher on bigger mobs... 10 people with 10-20 damage guns will still have quite some DPS ^^
 

shoti

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Guys...I used finisher in 2nd test group just to avoid posibility that overkill is tampering somehow with multiplier frequency. Already wrote that in response to Evey. Overkiling mob increase base loot and multiplied loot as it increase overall cost to kill. So if you are after highest possible TT outcome while using procedure i described yesterday overkilling is good thing in same way as using low dmg/pec weapon ( and low efficiency weapons as for now, as MA not released yet low dmg/pec weapons with high efficiency ) . Its bit like condition crafting or indoor mining. U sacrifice as hunter efficiency ( in extreme scenario of 0% efficiency u sacrifice 7% of total loot ) in order to get possibility to pump as much peds as possible into single mobs before loot action.
 

Jhereg

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Or just normalize your loots by shots fired...
 

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For whatever reason that can be understand, MA say there is not personal pool, they won't admit and we whould not bother them with it. ( Maybe read between the lines :D )
I think all of this and what we discuss is due to some wierd law about gambling and not being tagged as online casino, something that MA must have done to be safe.

Cheers.
For me it really depends on the definition of "personal loot pool". I doubt it is a pool where some things are just reserved for you.
If it really was all pure luck, you could be unlucky for a real long time before getting anything above 90% on average, so some saveguards have to be there.
Stopped real tracking quite a while, but from the atrox mission I can tell you that it was not really purely number of loot events to get an average, and I camped them a lot up to finishing all the missions. On average I had a global every 150 kills, longest streak without one may have been 300 kills.
And this would also happen on Levis....same outfits
Also it happened more often that the biggest paybacks for me came on things i had hunted less for some time.
So real camping for me does not seem to be rewarding, but it could as well have been that that bigger multiplier may also have happened if I had stayed doing the same thing.
I also tried switching all the time before "loot 2.0", but I never saw any benefit in it and only lost itme travelling around and hunting the multipliers.
Of course tracking returns can be interesting, especially if one wants to find out where the PEDs get lost, but I still do not think that on can actually get some kind of a "formula" when to expect the next bigger multiplier.

But then again I am just lazy, do the things I like and do not think too much about the returns, because I believe in the end it allways comes back.
Rather have fun and depo :D
 

shoti

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[...]
I also tried switching all the time before "loot 2.0", but I never saw any benefit in it and only lost itme travelling around and hunting the multipliers.
[...]
Do you remeber how you switched , and did you do that in some disciplined manner ? Or at least what mob you switched between ?

I am asking because in light of my data switching between similar in cost to kill mobs ( f.e. 4 ped/kill and 5/ped mob) will diminish any advantages of doing that. Being in prolonged non multiplier sequence on 4 ped mob will be so devastating for ped balance, that even if you nail mulyiplier on 5 ped mob, you will not recoup loses from non multiplier period. Tbh puny mobs are ideal for spending time on them during those non multiplier periods becuse making loot action on them is cheap, but doing that u need to be able to live with smth like that....

 

anonimity

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interestingly enough, you're hunting some of the worst markup mobs on calypso on your tracker. just an observation, atrox prots ambu ... yuck!
 

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Do you remeber how you switched , and did you do that in some disciplined manner ? Or at least what mob you switched between ?
Not sure if one could call it a "disciplined" manner, I simply killed 20-30 mobs of a type and then teleported to a completely other area with different mobs, any mob that was killable for me at that time, I think no mobs above level 25. Did for about 6 months, then I had better funds and switched to higher sample sizes of 100-150 before switching and have kept that since then.
 

shoti

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interestingly enough, you're hunting some of the worst markup mobs on calypso on your tracker. just an observation, atrox prots ambu ... yuck!

Actually with this aproach to hunting close vicinity of spawn to teleporter is more important than MU on loot :)
 
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