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Risk of Ruin - Bankroll Management

For crafting 1000+ times the cost per click, as dry periods can be very long and sub 80% tt-return.
If you need 94+% TT-return for breaking even with MU, then 10000 times the cost per click.
 
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Alukat123 said:
For crafting 1000+ times the cost per click, as dry periods can be very long and sub 80% tt-return.
If you need 94+% TT-return for breaking even with MU, then 10000 times the cost per click.
Click to expand...
this also, should include SR% since that will also, be a big factor in returns
 
FireFist said:
this also, should include SR% since that will also, be a big factor in returns
Click to expand...

Well, the SR% in crafting window allows to predict the worst case scenario in terms of tt-return.
Generally it's SR% - 17%.
so, shown 95% SR will be 78% TT-return as worst case.
70% SR will be 53% TT-return as worst case.
 
Alukat123 said:
Well, the SR% in crafting window allows to predict the worst case scenario in terms of tt-return.
Generally it's SR% - 17%.
so, shown 95% SR will be 78% TT-return as worst case.
70% SR will be 53% TT-return as worst case.
Click to expand...
im still really new is this pretty much confirmed? i read on one of Legends posts that in the long haul avg success is roughly 43% so, is it safe to say worst case long hual would be 78% TT return but, with 43% success or does it turn to 95% in the long haul in this case? SR 95%
 
FireFist said:
im still really new is this pretty much confirmed? i read on one of Legends posts that in the long haul avg success is roughly 43% so, is it safe to say worst case long hual would be 78% TT return but, with 43% success or does it turn to 95% in the long haul in this case? SR 95%
Click to expand...

the worst case is usually temporary nature (for a couple thousand clicks).
in the very long run it will be 90% (non-SIB BP) or 95% (SIB) TT-return.
 
I can understand that there is a variable that a larger mob requires large investments, but the cash register is one. If I invested 200 thousand peds in the game (and I had a maximum hof of 4000 peds-this is 2% of the return), then what kind of mathematical problem is there, maybe it's just taking the peds in a brazen way. Moreover, I have not tried anything I have an efficiency of 74% 40 loot on mine 40 lvl professions is not so bad for 4 years of play and 200 k ped) but there is simply no return
 
alita14 said:
I can understand that there is a variable that a larger mob requires large investments, but the cash register is one. If I invested 200 thousand peds in the game (and I had a maximum hof of 4000 peds-this is 2% of the return), then what kind of mathematical problem is there, maybe it's just taking the peds in a brazen way. Moreover, I have not tried anything I have an efficiency of 74% 40 loot on mine 40 lvl professions is not so bad for 4 years of play and 200 k ped) but there is simply no return
Click to expand...
this is something new...
 
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alita14 said:
I can understand that there is a variable that a larger mob requires large investments, but the cash register is one. If I invested 200 thousand peds in the game (and I had a maximum hof of 4000 peds-this is 2% of the return), then what kind of mathematical problem is there, maybe it's just taking the peds in a brazen way. Moreover, I have not tried anything I have an efficiency of 74% 40 loot on mine 40 lvl professions is not so bad for 4 years of play and 200 k ped) but there is simply no return
Click to expand...
To put it simply: in terms of "returns", Mindark doesn't care what you deposit. The TT return is locked strictly on useage, or what we call decay (item decay, ammo, material used for crafting, etc.)

Example
2 people: 1 deposits $10,000 USD, other does no depo at all.

Both cycle ~20,000 ped in same activity w/ same gear in same time frame.
Both will get approximately the same TT returns. (85-95%-ish)

But the whole point of this thread is: Those with deeper pockets (more activity in between the "recycling" stage) can withstand dry spells better than someone who doesn't have enough reserves. That's where bigger deposits, IF managed correctly, can help.

So if you depo $100,000k USD, buy top gear and only leave yourself 300 ped to use for ammo, probes, repairs, etc. well, kiss that 300 ped g-bye pretty quickly and hope someone else buys your gear for more than you paid. (or prepare to spend lotta time sweating, picking fruit, etc.)
 
Here's some food for your thought- A hunter does really good hunting not only getting return but actually makes a reasonable profit. Then he/she has the bright idea to start withdrawing earings. And all of a sudden from that point ownwards every hunt turns into a downfall till this person finally descides to cut his losses and stop playing !
 
DRAGUNOV44 said:
Here's some food for your thought- A hunter does really good hunting not only getting return but actually makes a reasonable profit. Then he/she has the bright idea to start withdrawing earings. And all of a sudden from that point ownwards every hunt turns into a downfall till this person finally descides to cut his losses and stop playing !
Click to expand...
If you know anything about sine waves and loot, you definitely will not withdraw those gains.
 
ok..so we got a percentage.
Then what?
 
M Rufen Power said:
Figure out how to increase your odds of winning against the players and not the house, or both.
Click to expand...
Well, that was always the case, right?

But the formula from OP tells us how large our exposure to risk is. His willingness to lose 800 PED on a total Bankroll of 45K yields a % of 1,78%. Which is nice to know.

But it would be more worthwhile to be able to use it the other way. Given a certain willingness to take risk, and given a certain bankroll, how much should I be able to cycle in a run? How much should I expect to be able to lose on a horrible day. And...which mobs (or mining claims) match that outcome.

That would be a lot more practical, as it would allow decision making.
 
M Rufen Power said:
Figure out how to increase your odds of winning against the players and not the house, or both.
Click to expand...
I know we frequently speak in these terms but if someone agrees to buy something at a price you're willing to sell, you're both "winning". Perhaps just in different ways.

I have found that if you hunt small enough, in the right places, with the right gear, you can generally break even and even make a few ped on markup.

Can't just do what everyone else is doing.
 
jwestonmoss said:
I know we frequently speak in these terms but if someone agrees to buy something at a price you're willing to sell, you're both "winning". Perhaps just in different ways.

I have found that if you hunt small enough, in the right places, with the right gear, you can generally break even and even make a few ped on markup.

Can't just do what everyone else is doing.
Click to expand...
Or if you do, you must be willing to hold onto the material until a later date.
 
Detritus said:
I greatly appreciate you sharing your knowledge, this is really helpful data.

I've always been told to hunt within my budget, but I never really knew what that was. Now you've given us the tools to figure that out. I wish I could give more than one rep.


Just to make sure I'm comprehending correctly, I have tried to reverse your formula in order to figure out what size mobs I should be hunting. Math is not one of my strong points, so I'm hoping for a sanity check here:

I want a target RoR of about 2%.
My current bankroll is about 2000 PED.
Based on my logs, 80% return is a conservative low bound.

So to maintain RoR of 2%, my lower bound result needs to be -40 PED (2000 *0.02).

This means I can cycle about 200 PED per day (40/0.2).

At around 500 kills, this means I should go for mobs that cost about 40 pecs per kill (200/500).

If I play like this, it would take 50 consecutive days of 80% returns to go broke.


Is this correct, or have I misunderstood?
Click to expand...


"This means I can cycle about 200 PED per day (40/0.2)."

Where does the 0.2 of (40/0.2) come from? i.,e. how do I use this to figure the daily cycle amount? My guess is it's the rest of the 80% lower bound risk?

EXAMPLE:

Current Bankroll: 200 PED
Daily Cycle: ?? PED
Lower Bound Risk: 80%
Lower Bound Result: -6 PED
RoR: 3%
 
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Also, please define the daily cycle a bit more exactly. If it's 100 PED, does that mean "I buy 100 ped of TT ammo and that's my daily cycle" or does it mean "I start with about 40 PED of TT ammo and cycle the shrap until nothing is left, which equals about 100 ped of TT grand total used"?
 
Mighty Bear said:
Also, please define the daily cycle a bit more exactly. If it's 100 PED, does that mean "I buy 100 ped of TT ammo and that's my daily cycle" or does it mean "I start with about 40 PED of TT ammo and cycle the shrap until nothing is left, which equals about 100 ped of TT grand total used"?
Click to expand...
it's a lot simpler to calculate the former. but for people with low bankrolls the latter is how it gets done
 
JohnCapital said:
To put it simply: in terms of "returns", Mindark doesn't care what you deposit. The TT return is locked strictly on useage, or what we call decay (item decay, ammo, material used for crafting, etc.)

Example
2 people: 1 deposits $10,000 USD, other does no depo at all.

Both cycle ~20,000 ped in same activity w/ same gear in same time frame.
Both will get approximately the same TT returns. (85-95%-ish)

But the whole point of this thread is: Those with deeper pockets (more activity in between the "recycling" stage) can withstand dry spells better than someone who doesn't have enough reserves. That's where bigger deposits, IF managed correctly, can help.

So if you depo $100,000k USD, buy top gear and only leave yourself 300 ped to use for ammo, probes, repairs, etc. well, kiss that 300 ped g-bye pretty quickly and hope someone else buys your gear for more than you paid. (or prepare to spend lotta time sweating, picking fruit, etc.)
Click to expand...

Always someone jammin on us sweat noobs.
 
Wollongong said:
Well, that was always the case, right?

But the formula from OP tells us how large our exposure to risk is. His willingness to lose 800 PED on a total Bankroll of 45K yields a % of 1,78%. Which is nice to know.

But it would be more worthwhile to be able to use it the other way. Given a certain willingness to take risk, and given a certain bankroll, how much should I be able to cycle in a run? How much should I expect to be able to lose on a horrible day. And...which mobs (or mining claims) match that outcome.

That would be a lot more practical, as it would allow decision making.
Click to expand...
To ask the question, is to answer it. Mindark will make sure you lose all your peds. You will gain some skill, might even loot an item, which will make you lose ped faster. The only way to go is to buy deeds/landarea or provide a service to other players. All else is profit for Mindark, mining, crafting, hunting. The size of your bankroll only matters if people will buy your animal oils and hides etc. The tt is your enemy but helas to say, these days it can also be your friend if your auction for animal oils/hides/wools fails and you pay the auction fee anyway. The only thing a large pedroll does right now, is make your realise you are fucked later.
A large shop can stretch your card, or hunt on planets where the local planet specific markup items will actually be sold. But the market for regular calypso loot is dead.
Providing a service like a fapper for other players is also near dead, because fapping is no longer necessary with 300+ hp and mayhem amps with lifesteal, restoration chips and an influx of good cheapish faps like mod 2600,Eir and refurbished VIII.
The economy is on its last legs. It would be good to start a new economy with unreal entropia. Shrapnel only to start with and slowly introduce items, but only items that have a function ingame, can be crafted into something useful instead of a jester d-1, or turned in to get other valuables, like Cyrene is successfully doing right now. Almost all the Cyrene local looted items have a purpose and therefor have markup.
 
Spawn said:
To ask the question, is to answer it. Mindark will make sure you lose all your peds. You will gain some skill, might even loot an item, which will make you lose ped faster. The only way to go is to buy deeds/landarea or provide a service to other players. All else is profit for Mindark, mining, crafting, hunting. The size of your bankroll only matters if people will buy your animal oils and hides etc. The tt is your enemy but helas to say, these days it can also be your friend if your auction for animal oils/hides/wools fails and you pay the auction fee anyway. The only thing a large pedroll does right now, is make your realise you are fucked later.
A large shop can stretch your card, or hunt on planets where the local planet specific markup items will actually be sold. But the market for regular calypso loot is dead.
Providing a service like a fapper for other players is also near dead, because fapping is no longer necessary with 300+ hp and mayhem amps with lifesteal, restoration chips and an influx of good cheapish faps like mod 2600,Eir and refurbished VIII.
The economy is on its last legs. It would be good to start a new economy with unreal entropia. Shrapnel only to start with and slowly introduce items, but only items that have a function ingame, can be crafted into something useful instead of a jester d-1, or turned in to get other valuables, like Cyrene is successfully doing right now. Almost all the Cyrene local looted items have a purpose and therefor have markup.
Click to expand...
how do you handle all the existing items in the game without basically telling all the old players to eff off?

i'm not trying to be obtuse here. i am interested in how it might be done
 
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