Seasonal rings

theProphet

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Just wondering again, out of 21 seasonal rings, 3 people were able to loot 2 pieces (again).

Why in hell does Mindark think that this isn't broken and working exactly as supposed? :scratch2:
 

Alina

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i heard so many cases of players that open 10-20 seasonal boxes and get the ring , meanwhile me always unlucky with the boxes, i didn't open tons but for instance im close to 2k christmas with a 200 ped ring (i saved so much peds from those candy vs hyper 10 so it went well :p )
 

SirAzzah

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As someone that’s opened tens of thousands of boxes and had never seen a pink/purple box, while watching others that only opened few hundred or less loot one or multiple rings, I can’t say that I feel bad for having a little bit of luck. I think joda was also in a similar situation when I went on entropia life and looked at past ring drops.

However, like many things in entropia. I would agree that the box system isn’t optimally designed. I don’t really know anything or figured out some kind of trigger, I just got lucky. All I can say is, your time will come :)
 

theProphet

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All I can say is, your time will come :)
it's ok that everyone's time will come some day.

i'm just pointing out that it doesn't make any sense, that it happens twice in a row in the very same season, EVERY SEASON.

it reminds me a bit about the 2 ubers in a row issue. broken by design knowingly, is it that?
 

Captain Jack

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Upon careful analysis there seems to be a strong correlation between players who open tens of thousands of strongboxes, and players who loot multiple rings. Not enough evidence yet to determine causation, but correlation is definitely there. :wise:
 

theProphet

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Not enough evidence yet to determine causation, but correlation is definitely there. :wise:
in my humble opinion that's wrong, because a fuckin shitload of data is out there available to everyone, my dear friend.

after some more analysis, i can give ya an example...

out of the rare item data on EL, messi looted 100 rings totally (no. 1 total-rings position ofc), and someone else looted 8.
messi got 2 halloween rings, the other one got 3. rofl! 3 halloween rings out of 8 rings totally ... muahahaha
:lolup:

another example, another guy. looted 10 rings totally, but looted the same amount of 2 halloween rings as messi (100 total), joda (58) and azzah (21).

it just doesn't make sense, or "their" RNG is trying to trick us. or simply broken, haha, who would expect this? :D

do i really need to mention that 99.9% of EU players loot exactly zero seasonal rings? really? :rolleyes:
 

theProphet

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and then, if i would tell ya, that some messi'ed people should really loot more seasonal rings, just because of some basic math rules and stuff, then you'd call me crazy, a fanboi, or a paid troll poster.

right? :girl:
 

theProphet

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PS: i looted 7 rings totally, and 1 xmas ring out of it.

i'll continue research on the other seasonal rings the next days...

i don't expect anything to ever change though, like some other longterm techguys and developers i know IG...

in the very very end, it becomes a trust issue. fairness in EU is maybe like mayhem or goldrush scores, you can either believe in it, or you don't (anymore).

but hey, let's improve graphics! :tongue2:

:dunce:
 

flipflap

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4500 open box is never had a single ring since 2019, not even an L, but I understand that some must open more box than me.
 

Hego Damask

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out of the rare item data on EL
Opening rings on website with the strongbox opener wont give you HoF*, so EL cant track it, its not 100% accurate, we dont know how many rings were really looted.

*Sure wont give you for Ares, what i looted, ofc i cant be sure about seasonal or unique rings, but probably the same.
 

theProphet

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its not 100% accurate
have you ever read about the law of large numbers? it doesn't need to be accurate, over time everything should even out, right? let's throw some physical coins for fun, instead of spending them on amazon ;)
 

MarcusLucius

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its pure statistics nothing else :girl:
whys a guy that loots 2x 2k+ loot on one day?
because statistically it CAN happen.
 
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some are just lucky and others not simple as that :) thinking even to delete my avatar to get a lucky one :)
 

MsPudding

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I guess I disagree with the initial sentiment that the seasonal ring distribution system is "broken". I would just caution anyone opening boxes to know that their chances of looting a seasonal ring are very slim, and to not expect to get one after opening a certain amount.

My best guess is that seasonal rings are looted every 1:10,000 boxes. But, this by no means indicates you'd loot one after 10,000.

As such, I would expect to see people at the extremes. Results should yield players that get a ring in their first 100 boxes, and again, players that don't get a seasonal ring even after 100,000 boxes. There's simply no guarantee, which further confirms the presence of an RNG system.

In practice, RNG distribution systems almost never provide loot equally to those participating. You can google and see all the people that have won multiple million dollar jackpots, and then hear countless stories of people that never win, even though they may have purchased more tickets than the winners. "Luck", or whatever you want to call it, can manifest weird "patterns", whether or not there are patterns at all.

One of the things human brains do so well is recognize patterns. We do it so well that we even "create" patterns, even when none exist.

Ever have a friend that you go gambling with that is certain they've cracked the code? That friend will tell you that they know how to bet to win more often than 50%, they've somehow figured it all out. One of the problems with recognizing patterns so easily and effortlessly, is that it lends itself to the creation of superstition, and many times we find ourselves attributing causation to correlation, when it doesn't exist. That's when you hear hair brained ideas and wild explanations about why something occurred, and people convince themselves they can recreate the results.

A lot of what I'm saying rests on the assumption that the ring distribution system really does have that RNG factor. Which I do believe. I don't think anyones loot switch is turned on or off by MindArk when cracking boxes. I believe we all get an equal shot at the seasonal rings, some just are luckier then others. And of course, it's been said, but taking more shots definitely increased your chances, but by no means guaranteed results.

tl:dr
What I'm trying to say is that I think the current system is working as intended. You're going to see some people appearing to get all the loot, while others appear to never get the loot, this is how RNG systems typically play out. I don't believe the current ring system needs changed, as I don't believe anyone is a "favorite" or that MindArk has enhanced certain peoples' chances over others. The odds of looting a seasonal ring are very low, but they're low for everyone cracking boxes. I think it's kind of cool that a new player can start EU and snag a seasonal ring their first 100 boxes. Although I can understand why some get frustrated seeing someone new get a ring with very few boxes opened, that's what creates the allure in the first place.
 

Haruto Rat

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Just wondering again, out of 21 seasonal rings, 3 people were able to loot 2 pieces (again).

Why in hell does Mindark think that this isn't broken and working exactly as supposed? :scratch2:
This is roughly consistent, for example, with the theoretical distribution that would result from 50 agents doing 500 attempts each at a 1:1000 success probability:



(30 get nothing, 15 get one each, 4 get two each, and 1 gets three - 26 total (should be 25 but rounding is a bitch))

Colloquially, a picture like this is called "few big whales". :cool:
 
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mastermesh

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Waves... all loot, including in boxes are sitting on waves. Mindark has done some changes to the wave calculations, but they are all still waves... so if you hit it, you ride the wave like a surfer dude... yes, to some, that may be considered broken.
 

messi91

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Chiee

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15000 boxes here, best was aug athenic and total rings is 6. lol. Why didn't I make this thread? :p
Over 30k boxes opened atlest and ares improved best ring. got couple of those so doesnt feel that bad.
 

Detritus

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I guess I disagree with the initial sentiment that the seasonal ring distribution system is "broken". I would just caution anyone opening boxes to know that their chances of looting a seasonal ring are very slim, and to not expect to get one after opening a certain amount.

This is the key... people don't understand how probability works.

If you flip a coin 1000 times and it's heads 1000 times in a row, the fallacy is to think "well fucks sake, the next toss has to be tails since the last 1000 were heads"... but reality is the 1001 toss is still a 50/50 chance.


Doesn't matter how many boxes you open, probability doesn't change with each.
 

theProphet

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Doesn't matter how many boxes you open, probability doesn't change with each.
that's how it should be. when only a few handful seasonal rings drop out of all boxes opened by all avatars, chances to loot one are close to zero, as most of us know, because they never got any at all.

when chances are close to zero, it's not like throwing a coin with 2 sides. the probability to loot 2 or even 3 is in theory very very unlikely, while in EU it's standard as it seems. (happens every season)
 

MsPudding

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... the probability to loot 2 or even 3 is in theory very very unlikely, while in EU it's standard as it seems. (happens every season)
This kind of RNG distribution is not exclusive to EU. Its found anywhere there's RNG distribution, it's very normal. As weird as it sounds, it's very likely you'll see "unlikely" results. But the key here is changing the mindset that what you believe to be "unlikely", really isn't abnormal at all, if that makes any sense.

All systems are working as intended, and no avatar has been given an advantage from MA over another when cracking boxes.
 

Joat

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Distribution isn't random. Same as anything else, you need to fullfill certain criteria
to get the wanted item. I doubt it's impossible for certain players, its just the value
for probabilty to get it that is very low for some... but the chance is there.
 

forgo

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Real players don't need to buy boxes, we sell them. ;)

I haven't bought keys in a couple years to be honest, the system has bias, and people are just now noticing.
 

atomicstorm

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Upon careful analysis there seems to be a strong correlation between players who open tens of thousands of strongboxes, and players who loot multiple rings. Not enough evidence yet to determine causation, but correlation is definitely there. :wise:
Said the guy who used to gloat he had the magic recipe for looting the christmas rings. Remember that? I do. :wise:
 
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