Question: Shopkeeper Market Value History

[Roz Farstar]

So does anyone know why the MU on shopkeepers is sky rocketing like this? Did these completely stop dropping? Because the price is getting way beyond practical.

 

[Haruto Rat]

Shopkeeper drops registered on EL rare loot tracker:

2013 - 50
2014 - 64
2015 - 62
2016 - 82
2017 - 72
2018 - 21
2019 - 22
2020 - 23
2021 - 2

 

[Fanan]

Never looted one, so for me the droop rate is the same. lol At same time we have seen an increase of shops, namely Medusa shops and other planets shops while many other shops are completely abandone all over the universe and many with empty shopkeepers.

Rule of offer / demand as everything in this game.

 

[Fanan]

Shopkeeper drops registered on EL rare loot tracker:

2013 - 50
2014 - 64
2015 - 62
2016 - 82
2017 - 72
2018 - 21
2019 - 22
2020 - 23
2021 - 2

Interresting.

Two options. Or there is less ppl hunting ambus or MA want players to buy more shops and less shopkeepers.

 

[Roz Farstar]

Shopkeeper drops registered on EL rare loot tracker:

2013 - 50
2014 - 64
2015 - 62
2016 - 82
2017 - 72
2018 - 21
2019 - 22
2020 - 23
2021 - 2

Thanks Haruto! I didn't think about looking there

 

[MsPudding]

Shopkeeper drops registered on EL rare loot tracker:

2013 - 50
2014 - 64
2015 - 62
2016 - 82
2017 - 72
2018 - 21
2019 - 22
2020 - 23
2021 - 2

Looks like the drop rate of 5-6 a month went to just under 2. About a -66% decline in the drop rate. So the drop rate in combination with an increase in demand for them has resulted in sky high prices.

Thanks for the #'s Haruto. Makes sense.

 

[John B Knight]

I would presume that shopkeeper pads like most ul items are tied to player activity and count and since they do not leave the market and are usually resold over time their droprate would decline if new player/activity growth doesnt keep up.
Mindark doesnt earn from dropping shopkeeper pads, but they do earn from players buying more itempoints in shops - this to keep in mind if you want to make the case to mindark that droprate should increase/item limit should be higher.

 

[Fanan]

Mindark must have a point tho if you think about it.

The number of apartments turned into shops versus the abandone shops and unsold ones on main malls of calypso.

 

[MsPudding]

Interresting.

Two options. Or there is less ppl hunting ambus or MA want players to buy more shops and less shopkeepers.

I think MA intentionally lowered the drop rate of the shopkeepers, given that the change in total shopkeepers looted was so abrupt, and the lowered amount followed a constant trend for a few years after it was lowered. At least, it appears that way to me.

To my knowledge there aren't less Ambus being hunted now than there were a few years ago.

 

[Roz Farstar]

I think MA intentionally lowered the drop rate of the shopkeepers, given that the change in total shopkeepers looted was so abrupt, and the lowered amount followed a constant trend for a few years after it was lowered. At least, it appears that way to me.

To my knowledge there aren't less Ambus being hunted now than there were a few years ago.

Yes, seems like it. So the next question is, why is MA lowering the drop rate?

 

[John B Knight]

To my knowledge there aren't less Ambus being hunted now than there were a few years ago.

Magurgs can drop them too and with gold rush no longer taking place on ark and overall ark hunting going somewhat down , this does impact potential shopkeeper loot too.

 

[Fanan]

I also agree, nowadays much more places to hunt ambus and also riptors on Ark. So they clearly trying to make a point here.

A shopkeeper holds 20 items and takes up 6 item slots of an estate. (from Wiki)

Shops +20 item points – 2,000 PED (from EU site)

 

[MsPudding]

Before this huge price spike I would have assumed that the demand for shopkeepers was elastic, given that MindArk has made a substitute option readily available and easy, by submitting a support ticket to upgrade your shop. Pay 2k PED get 20 item points. The graph illustrates this, just look how for 6+ years the price on shopkeepers was a steady 2k PED, even though the quantity sold bounced around, makes sense.

What I find interesting is that for the past two years, this appears to not be the case at all. The quantity available has had a major shift downward, the price has increased 3x, yet the quantity demanded has remained constant. You often see this type of inelastic behavior with goods like salt, petrol, and chocolate, as there really are no real substitutes.

Quantity sold in 2020 matches 2014 - 2015, but the price has tripled; which further indicates that the demand for the product does not change as much as its change in price.

And yet, even with all these observations, I still believe the root cause of the price hike is a result of simple demand outpacing supply. I firmly believe Shopkeepers are an elastic good, and that the market will correct itself. I think this price spike is a "bubble". Plain and simple, there is more to this story than just those numbers. And elastic goods can behave like inelastic goods in the short term, which is what I think we're seeing here.

Prices on many goods in EU have increased, and some at extreme rates. FEN and loot 2.0 gear has shot sky high, but so have the price of shops, pills, even some old loot 1.0 gear and armors. Whats the cause? More people = more demand. CLD payments indicate at least a +30% increase in Caly turnover. Where supply has stayed pretty constant the last 1-2 years, demand has outpaced it.

With shopkeepers theres more than one factor, its not about just supply, rather, there is renewed popularity in owning a shop or converting an apartment to a store. Now the reasons for a renewed interest in shops, I would argue, are a result of loot 2.0 for some, and the emerging popularity of the owner/renter format made popular by Morey.

Take for instance someone like Messi, perhaps one of EU's most successful hunters of all time. He used to hunt 100% of the time in the past. But not after loot 2.0, now maybe this is coincidence, maybe he got bored, maybe he'll tell us, who knows. From the outside looking in, I think profit margins for top hunters, like Messi, were slashed with loot 2.0. As a result you see him now crafting, running a shop, and hunting, he's "branching out", if you will.

Keep in mind this isn't all bad, people who were at the bottom of the DPP totem pole aren't losing their asses like before. TT returns were pretty much balanced and stabilized for all hunters, it has never been this easy and affordable in game to skill up. And that's a beautiful thing. Personally, my avatar has gained 150 HP+ and over 200k skills since loot 2.0 because returns have been so stable. I love it. Also, its absolutely still possible in 2021 to profit from only hunting. Ok, I digress...

So you have this influx of people who have never owned a shop before, all of a sudden wanting to own a shop now. The advantages of owning a shop are more prevalent than before, and made easy access by savvy and smart people, like Morey. So this increased interest comes brings with it an increased price on crucial shop infrastructure, like shopkeepers, that also coincidentally became harder to get because of a -66% drop rate tweak.

Boom.

The perfect storm resulted in sky high prices, and people willing to pay them.

As for me? I'm happy with a cup of pudding.

 

[messi91]

As a result you see him now crafting, running a shop, and hunting, he's "branching out", if you will.

People must understand that one day has only 24 hours.I hunt the same amount of time now than in loot 1.0 or perhaps im around there +/- 10% as time spent but I have far superior tools now.I do my craft while i sleep or not being able to be present at my computer, that doesn't mean I sacrifice my hunting schedule because of crafting.I am just making sure that I fill those 24 hours with productive activities and not just for now but for the next 10 years to come.

 

[Mega]

People must understand that one day has only 24 hours.I hunt the same amount of time now than in loot 1.0 or perhaps im around there +/- 10% as time spent but I have far superior tools now.I do my craft while i sleep or not being able to be present at my computer, that doesn't mean I sacrifice my hunting schedule because of crafting.I am just making sure that I fill those 24 hours with productive activities and not just for now but for the next 10 years to come.

Good job you aren't one person isn't it? Otherwise you would have had exactly zero life for the past 7.5 years.

Give my regards to Aurora Linzey Zamperath.

 

[MsPudding]

People must understand that one day has only 24 hours.I hunt the same amount of time now than in loot 1.0 or perhaps im around there +/- 10% as time spent but I have far superior tools now.I do my craft while i sleep or not being able to be present at my computer, that doesn't mean I sacrifice my hunting schedule because of crafting.I am just making sure that I fill those 24 hours with productive activities and not just for now but for the next 10 years to come.

Thanks for providing more detailed insight. This all seems in line with my initial assumption. ?

 

[MsPudding]

Magurgs can drop them too and with gold rush no longer taking place on ark and overall ark hunting going somewhat down , this does impact potential shopkeeper loot too.

You're right, I hadn't considered this. To what degree, or what % this affects the overall annual drop rate is unknown to me.

I would speculate that the vast majority of the drops came from, and still come from Caly though. Regardless, this likely would have a small impact. My gut tells me MA adjusted the drop rate a bit, but my gut is also hungry.

 

[messi91]

This all seems in line with my initial assumption.

Not really, no.I simply had a different approach trying to fill the rest of the time (dead period where I simply log out and not do anything with my avatar) therefore I don't do crafting because things went bad in hunting.I do it because I have a very larger plan with my future of this game.I could do just hunting but I always push myself for more.

 

[MsPudding]

therefore I don't do crafting because things went bad in hunting.I do it because I have a very larger plan with my future of this game.

Ah, this is the bit of information missing from your first post. Hearing this now, yes, my initial assumption appears to be amiss.

Very curious, sending you a PM with a follow up question...

 

[kingofaces]

I would presume that shopkeeper pads like most ul items are tied to player activity and count and since they do not leave the market and are usually resold over time their droprate would decline if new player/activity growth doesnt keep up.
Mindark doesnt earn from dropping shopkeeper pads, but they do earn from players buying more itempoints in shops - this to keep in mind if you want to make the case to mindark that droprate should increase/item limit should be higher.

To add to this from a shop fee / shopkeeper display perspective, shopkeepers are generally not worth it compared to just buying more item points from MA. If I switched my shop over to all shopkeepers instead, I’d be just about better off just selling on the auction instead.

That applies to someone like me who uses larger amounts of item points though. If someone is only selling a few high value items where the shopkeeper decay is less of a factor, then someone could make it pencil out easier. That and it might easier to sell a single shopkeeper than a shop of you need to sell. If someone is dead set on an apartment shop, that is the other avenue, but it is generally cheaper to try to grab one of the ground floor shops at Treasure Island, etc.

So tl;dr, shop keepers should actually be pretty niche. If Calypso PP would release the empty shop deeds on auction, that would help with balancing more.

 

[Legends]

Ever since the noticeable drop in Shop Keepers in 2018 I have said that this was intentional. In my mind, MindArk reduced their drop rate because they felt that the price on them had to come up in order to 'justify' the cost of shop upgrades and to make these a more attractive solution for shop owners (no one will pay 2k ped to add 20 item points to their shop if they can pay the same amount to buy a shop keeper).

If you add to this the resurgence of interest in shops in the last few years, it's easy to see a huge spike in demand. I touched on this in a post in my sales thread not long ago:

...
I think the reason for this is pretty simple, the running theme for Estates and Shops in Entropia is a scarcity of item points for all. I mean come on, a large shop at PA mall only came with 110 item points, wth is someone supposed to do with that? Not much. There are 20 ArMatrix levels, what am I supposed to do? Carry only 1 laser rifle of each, 1 laser pistol of each, 1 BLP rifle, 1 BLP pistol and 1 sword? If you want to make an enhancer shop, this picture gets even worse.

So players that want to have a decent shop have no choice to seek ways to gain more item points. You can either 'upgrade' your shop with more item points (instructions on that here), or you can buy shop keepers to effectively gain 14 additional item points with each shop keeper you add.

Although the upgrade is much cheaper, I think the majority of shop owners are just weary that this will be money spent which they are never going to be able to get back, so the price of shop keepers has been rising and rising for the last couple of years.

Personally I think they might go all the way to 6k, unless MA starts dropping more of them.

This strategy has definitely worked, I have surveyed item points 3 years in a row and there are a lot of them being purchased right now both at Medusa and Twin Peaks mall. Check out this post for more info on this.

My prediction on this is that MindArk will either increase the drop rate a bit soon seeing as we are now nearing 6k for them, or they will take advantage of this to introduce a new item or option, but the timing of this is impossible to know, could be a year out or 5...

 

[Roz Farstar]

Ever since the noticeable drop in Shop Keepers in 2018 I have said that this was intentional. In my mind, MindArk reduced their drop rate because they felt that the price on them had to come up in order to 'justify' the cost of shop upgrades and to make these a more attractive solution for shop owners (no one will pay 2k ped to add 20 item points to their shop if they can pay the same amount to buy a shop keeper).

This is not entirely true. I recently requested an item point upgrade for my shop and even if shopkeepers were still the same price as they used to be, it would not have changed that decision. However, while I wait for my shop to be upgraded (which could be who knows when since they didn't do anything in this VU) I have no way to sell more items because I have no desire to sink that many peds into a shopkeeper. Also, there's a lot of items that can't be sold out of a shopkeeper, like vehicles and what not, so people will not add more points to their shop in those cases anyways. If I ever want more points in my shop I most likely will want a shopkeeper because I don't want my shop cluttered up. At that point, less shopkeeper availibility will simply make me craft less, instead of adding more points.

 

[Legends]

This is not entirely true. I recently requested an item point upgrade for my shop and even if shopkeepers were still the same price as they used to be, it would not have changed that decision. However, while I wait for my shop to be upgraded (which could be who knows when since they didn't do anything in this VU) I have no way to sell more items because I have no desire to sink that many peds into a shopkeeper. Also, there's a lot of items that can't be sold out of a shopkeeper, like vehicles and what not, so people will not add more points to their shop in those cases anyways. If I ever want more points in my shop I most likely will want a shopkeeper because I don't want my shop cluttered up. At that point, less shopkeeper availibility will simply make me craft less, instead of adding more points.

I understand. I didn't really intend for the term 'no one' to be taken literally, it was more to illustrate the idea that generally speaking, the appeal for the shop upgrade just wasn't there for most people back when the price was the same for either one.

Of course some people upgraded their shops over the years even at those prices, but I stand by my claim that in more recent years and especially once shop keepers broke the 4k mark, shop upgrades started to make a lot more sense and more and more have been buying them as a solution.

 

[Roz Farstar]

I understand. I didn't really intend for the term 'no one' to be taken literally, it was more to illustrate the idea that generally speaking, the appeal for the shop upgrade just wasn't there for most people back when the price was the same for either one.

Of course some people upgraded their shops over the years even at those prices, but I stand by my claim that in more recent years and especially once shop keepers broke the 4k mark, shop upgrades started to make a lot more sense and more and more have been buying them as a solution.

Not disputing that claim at all but I do think Shopkeeper prices are getting ridiculous even for that reason. It doesn't have to keep on increasing to serve the purpose you mentioned.

 

[Legends]

Not disputing that claim at all but I do think Shopkeeper prices are getting ridiculous even for that reason. It doesn't have to keep on increasing to serve the purpose you mentioned.

No it doesn't need to keep on increasing, but knowing MA and how they do things, I think they will resists increasing the drop rate and instead will try to seize that opportunity to introduce a new item which performs the same function but better which will serve a dual purpose: answer the demand, but also add new functionality or options..

The best thing they could do right now imho regarding this is to introduce a new type of 'dispensing' shop keeper for stacks, that way shops that offer stackables wouldn't have to 'waste' a lot of item points to make different stack quantities to cater to a wider variety of players. I talked about this in some of my suggestion threads but I'm not sure what they think of that. It's possible they are concerned that this would hurt the demand for item points overall, but I doubt it since shops already have very limited numbers of item points to begin with.

 

[Roz Farstar]

To add to this from a shop fee / shopkeeper display perspective, shopkeepers are generally not worth it compared to just buying more item points from MA. If I switched my shop over to all shopkeepers instead, I’d be just about better off just selling on the auction instead.

That applies to someone like me who uses larger amounts of item points though. If someone is only selling a few high value items where the shopkeeper decay is less of a factor, then someone could make it pencil out easier. That and it might easier to sell a single shopkeeper than a shop of you need to sell. If someone is dead set on an apartment shop, that is the other avenue, but it is generally cheaper to try to grab one of the ground floor shops at Treasure Island, etc.

So tl;dr, shop keepers should actually be pretty niche. If Calypso PP would release the empty shop deeds on auction, that would help with balancing more.

I never realized shopkeepers have decay. Has this always been the case? I guess one more reason to add shop points instead of using a shopkeeper.

 

[kingofaces]

I never realized shopkeepers have decay. Has this always been the case? I guess one more reason to add shop points instead of using a shopkeeper.

I've never used shopkeepers for this reason, but I haven't tested myself either. The wiki has a bit of history: http://www.entropiawiki.com/Info.aspx?chart=MiscTool&id=30

I guess looking at it now, it looks like there have been some changes, so maybe a flat 10 pec per sale according to Mastermesh? I used to go by what Solaris had posted awhile back which was nearly 40 pec decay. The latter was really not any better than auction really, but 10 pec isn't as bad as I remembered. Still, even if there was a shopkeeper for 1k and I needed item points, I'd still buy more item points instead.

 

[Legends]

I've never used shopkeepers for this reason, but I haven't tested myself either. The wiki has a bit of history: http://www.entropiawiki.com/Info.aspx?chart=MiscTool&id=30

I guess looking at it now, it looks like there have been some changes, so maybe a flat 10 pec per sale according to Mastermesh? I used to go by what Solaris had posted awhile back which was nearly 40 pec decay. The latter was really not any better than auction really, but 10 pec isn't as bad as I remembered. Still, even if there was a shopkeeper for 1k and I needed item points, I'd still buy more item points instead.

it's 10 pec per sale. Which is nothing really if you only use them to sell items with a decent margin on them, but if you are trying to sell things that have a lot of competition on them where each pec counts that could add up.

 

[mastermesh]

The answer to the question of why prices are rising is right here:

5F - Looted armor parts and sets
Easy find!!! -> shopkeepers are wearing armors they sell

5B - High Tier number armors, Mayhem armors, enhancers and a few runaway shopkeepers
Easy find!!! -> shopkeepers are wearing armors they sell

7B - Unlimited armor plates and Pulsar plates

7C - AP- armor plate series

After that apartment shop started lots of others started seeing the uses for shopkeepers to do similar type stuff.... Personally I think if Mindark finds this hoarding of shopkeepers to be a problem they ought to make it so that each estate can hold a maximum of 2 shopkeepers and no more. Do that and prices will drop like a rock.

Similarly, Mindark does not let certain items sell in normal shops that can be sold in shopkeepers... especially deeds. Add ability to sell deeds to regular shops and the demand for shopkeepers will continue to drop

As to the decrease in loots, it's a loot manager issue and/or they are holding them back to release big drop after new estates on other planets start showing up soon. Crystal Peak booths just were added in last vu. Cyrene keeps posting that they'll be adding more estates soon. Monria heavy handed management is now on Toulan where there is currently only one shop/stable so more estates will likely pop up in the next year and Lootius will open the shopkeeper vault in the sky to let them start dropping in puny loot in a while.

(if prices ever stabilize or fall back to 2-3 k I'll probably buy one again. I used to have a couple of them but had to get rid of them a few years back)

P.S. If you do have a shopkeepera dnd want one of the few 'upgraded apartments' on Arkadia that actually allow shopkeepers to fit up front by the main entry I dropped the estate deed on Next Island's auction a day or two ago. Price is far below what I actually paid for it. Happy bidding.

Oh also forgot about another shopkeeper hoarder: https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/...s/morningtear-castle-shop.256541/post-3545726