At this point i don't think the thread has anything constructive left to offer. people are spiraling into debates that are taking away from the two questions i posed:
Maybe the thread has run its course but I feel that bringing in our own experiences might be a valuable contribution and possibly the reason for MA's suggestion to have a conversation in here.
I don't play the box game, I only buy them as a way to depo when returns have been in the 80%-85% for a protracted amount of time (but absurd volatility is a subject for another thread
). That still puts me in the several $k/year, but I never expect to loot a ring or a rare token from there, so I'll stick to in-game cycling.
I have now cycled the good part of a million ped in the three new format events and I haven't got a single rare. I have come to the conclusion, like others have said, that the sytem has decided that "it's not my time". Looking at plenty of people cycling much less and getting multiple rares makes it even worse.
It really feels like I am trying to get into a night club and the bouncers just don't like me. I see everybody else go in, but hey, they either don't like my trainers, my shirt, my hairdo, whatever. They are not going to let me in!
Of course, with no rares coming and the event being frankly mind-numbingly boring (not defense, in fairness), the incentive to keep shooting inside mayhem has plummeted. As a consequence, and as a form of protest against the "night-club bouncers", I did pull the plug after completing the redulite mission.
Going forward I'll still do the bare minimum in a mayhem event and give it a chance to show me if my time has arrived, but if no rares I'll simply be persuing other personal projects in game. Of course, I won't be cycling the same amount, as mayhems are designed to maximise that, but that's the way the algo is designed and we can't fight it.
I agree with what others have already suggested, the probability distribution is very poorly designed. The cynical, despicable me thinks that the drop rate is skewed in favour of lower categories, lower players, because MA might see that as a powerful incentive for "newer" players to stick around and invest in the game, once they have the all powerful rare tokens. High cycling players? They would keeep cycling regardless. Basically, it's only a slightly different version of people chipping out and sticking to low categories in the old mayhems. Curiously enough, I see players who used to do that, sticking to say category 3 and still receiving plenty of rare tokens now. Coincidence? Of course, but...
The drop rate algo should have a component of pure luck so to allow anybody of any level to loot a rare, but also a significant component related to the amount of cycling. Failing to do so ends up penalising those who go up the ladder and makes a mockery of MA's argument that this is not gambling but meritocracy.