Study of the effect of buffs on loot per mob in Loot 2.0

1) What percentage of kerbs killed is killed by noobs?

2) What percentage of crazy amped towers are hit by noobs on foma vs miners world over? Specifically, miners who don't have huge dreams and therefore don't go dropping crazy bombs because they realize it's not sustainable over time?

I wanted to say the same thing. The argument at 1) should be enough. Kerberos is a entry level mob. ONLY noobs hunt them, with 2, 3 exceptions...
I don't think those big ubers are PR stunts, in this case, simply because kerberos is the most hunted creatures, when there's no event going on Caly. Also, even if I don't believe in a mob pool, the waste on kerbs is always high. Lack of skill & equipment, makes it a 'gummy bear' hunting place... :D
 
I think you should read the analysis in the OP before jumping to discount it. The points you bring up were all talked about in the analysis. It's helpful if you respond with an actual understanding of the topic at hand.

The analysis is not valid unless costs of all runs are considered. Dunno what's so hard about stating that in the first place.
 
Actually, I'm working on the data.. kinda hard to track fully as some people hide their EL data...

but my data is from March 2017 onward.. so really I need to keep the data for another year and then I can draw conclusions...

but right now, new player is classified as less than 50k total loot on tracker across all professions... and the ratio of noobs to non-noobs that hit 1000x+ multis on small mobs is 4.13 : 1.... so almost 4x as many noobs hit those massive hofs than not.. This number could be skewed because a lot of noobs hunt kerbs compared to non-noobs.


The mining data is more difficult to track, but right now it's about 1.79 : 1.... so much less than the hunting disparity.

I expect loot 2.0 to change this a lot.

If you have a detailed record of this I would really love to see it when you are ready. Anything that reveals in numbers how the gears turn is important and if this theory is true it's a popcorn moment for all.
 
The analysis is not valid unless costs of all runs are considered. Dunno what's so hard about stating that in the first place.

It provides no further relevant information that changes the analysis. Please take a moment to review. I'm not sure how better to explain it maybe someone else can.
 
It provides no further relevant information that changes the analysis. Please take a moment to review. I'm not sure how better to explain it maybe someone else can.

Sure it does. It gives you the cost to kill per mob. You have incorrectly assumed, or falsely claimed, that mob cost to kill is the same.

You spent such meticulous time poring over the loot, you forgot the most important bit.

Now you're trying to guess what f(x) is without even knowing x.

Why is it so difficult to share the most crucial part of the data? I can only assume it is because you and your colleague wish to purport a false perception of the loot profile and the importance of buffs in Version 2.0

This view is formed from the evidence that you have taken a passive agressive stance on sharing the most vital aspect of the data.

At this point in time, we don't even know what your TT% return is, because you refuse to state it.

Anyways I'm not going to push the point any further. Create another thread with properly referenced and logged data and I might take a look.

/Unsubscribe
 
Sure it does. It gives you the cost to kill per mob. You have incorrectly assumed, or falsely claimed, that mob cost to kill is the same.

You spent such meticulous time poring over the loot, you forgot the most important bit.

Now you're trying to guess what f(x) is without even knowing x.

Why is it so difficult to share the most crucial part of the data? I can only assume it is because you and your colleague wish to purport a false perception of the loot profile and the importance of buffs in Version 2.0

This view is formed from the evidence that you have taken a passive agressive stance on sharing the most vital aspect of the data.

At this point in time, we don't even know what your TT% return is, because you refuse to state it.

Anyways I'm not going to push the point any further. Create another thread with properly referenced and logged data and I might take a look.

/Unsubscribe

Hello Immortal,

I somewhat understand what you are saying. Allow me to try and convince you that I have actually shared the cost by sharing gear information. Sorry I have not responded earlier, but have been somewhat tired due to a trip.

You will see that I presented my gear in both cases. (I also used a kill shot weapon to try to minimize over kill during the experiment). This was to try and determine the relative difference in cost to kill in the two parts of the experiment. I assume, and I think it is a good assumption, that the buffs increase dpp/decrease cost by the following formula

(%focused blows)*(1+increased crit damge%)+(2%)*(increased crit damage%). It costs about 9% less to kill a caperons with the buffs. As stated in original post.

I also include dps change numbers (dps improves by ~20% with buffs), and established that regen is neglible compared to the effect of buffs on kill cost ( <1%).

For my experiment, I do not make any conclusions about absolute kill cost values, only relative. So I know cost to kill a caperon decreases by at least 9%, possibly 10% when you account for regen, when you use buffs. I do not assume that cost is directly associated with the loot return from a mob, as that is what I am seeking to measure in my experiment, is if I can see the impact of decreasing cost on size of mob loots. In fact, I do not even bother to try and capture kill cost. I assume my play style as an avatar is the same in both cases, and over many mobs the kill cost will reflect the change in cost due to buffs mainly. I assume kill cost decreases by the % i calculate above though. (I didn't post cost because I simply did not think it was necessary to track or important. Only the relative cost mattered, and I knew the effect of the buffs on cost well.) If someone wants to repeat the experiment and incorporate kill cost be my guest, but I do not think it will change the conclusions.

I draw the conclusion that buffs decrease cost, and this decrease in cost is reflected in decreased loots proportionally (approx same %).

For many of those who complain about sample size. I assume that the multiplier distribution is the same in both cases. (There will be x% of 1x, y% of 30x, z% of 300x as an example,etc) I also assume (obviously) that the percent of the smallest multipliers (those less than 1x) will substantially outweigh the percent chance of receiving large multiplier. Taking 500 or so of these samples in both cases, and neglecting the low % chance higher multipliers by neglecting the higher multis, you can get an excellent sense of the distribution and mean of the high % chance loots (those less than the expected kill cost of the mob). If you look on my spreadsheet you can see how I do this analysis. Since the percent chance of the small multiplier loots are so high, N = 500 is sufficient to get a pretty good sense of how the distribution looks like (you get lots of data points in the histo). Summing then serves to further remove probabilistic fluctuations (small meaningful differences add up, but unmeaningful fluctuations cancel). If someone wants to try N=1000 or N = 2000 please be my guest but I think N=500 on either side of the column is quite sufficient for this experiment.

Now if you want to assume the multiplier table %'s are somehow different in either case then yes, you would have to include all sample values, not being able to neglect outliers, you would indeed have to cycle many months to see the trends, with the same setup, for both cases.

As for tt return. I was at 101-2% tt return prior to 2.0 since tracking (~500k cycled), using majority of the time ares modified + EST. Since 2.0, I am using ares improved and not using EST (using arc spark + VI improved mainly). I am currently at 100-1% return (because i'm lucky probably lol), I have only cycled about 25k however.

Please feel free to reply with any further questions, I will try to answer as I can.

Update: Back down to 97.7% return. But at least I'm not counting conversion to shrapnel in that % :p. Time to go shoot my adj maddox. :handgun:
 
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Sure it does. It gives you the cost to kill per mob. You have incorrectly assumed, or falsely claimed, that mob cost to kill is the same.

Sorry if my previous response was too short but 12 hour jet lag is a real pain.

There was no assumption that the cost to kill is the same. As a matter of fact, that was exactly the point, that they are not the same. And the result is that the return reflects that in a very noticeable manner. Before, it was a guess. The numbers provided evidence that return now factors in cost to kill. The only assumption is that the exact same hunt, when buffed, will cost less. And I believe that is a reasonable preface.

Zho's explanation is far clearer, but since you unsub I'm not sure you will see it. :dunno:
 
Bumping this to the top! :laugh::laugh:
 
my opinion

MA have cost. And we are in an economy world. Why want a 90,95 or even 99% return. It s always a lost
Depending the way to hunt you have around 20%-100% shrapnell. Meaning 0%-80% of stuff with mu. The marcket need regulation and there are actually too many hunter for make the Mu correct. Bp come with more stuff to craft and nano can keep crafting cost playable. We just need some time for regulate everything. And hope 100 with more Mu. Depending the weapon you change the shrapnel return. It s no more about ddp or dps, we need adapt the way of hunting for each mob.
Playing for expect 100% return is more gambling than before.

I hope some hight hunter try some different hunt configuration. And log the % of shrap.

See you online
 
Again guys, thanks for the data, but I can also agree with what Immortal has a problem with concerning your data set. Not only were the costs and returns of each run not included, but you might have made an error of assumption.

It looks like you base your findings off of what to expect given the items and buffs stats on paper. We now have a very reactive system to your actual costs for any specific kill. It is hard to tell if during those runs you got more Crits than on paper, less or just what is expected. This combined with the lack of costs and returns for each run make it hard to draw conclusions.

That said, it does seem you guys are more right than not judging by a lot of feedback throughout these forums. If you guys could pull the crit data from those data sets and see if there is an expected and correct increase in Crits for the buff set vs unbuffed it would be helpful...
 
I mean, over the course of 600 mobs, you've fired your weapon at least 6000 times probably. Any variance of crit chance (1-6%) should smooth out over that many shots. It isn't like I only did two or three mobs...

Anyways I sold my summer ring... if I can borrow a summer ring or perfected ares from someone I'll rerun this. I don't have collateral though >.<

I don't think it'll change anything but I'm always open to getting more data. Though I'm kind of tired of losing peds so I might be more against it now :p
 
Does it really matter at this point? Over a month after we released this data, the conclusions have been confirmed.

We presented sound data and analysis and this has been as close to the old adage of "shooting the messenger" I have ever been part of, here in EU anyway. :laugh:

We laid it out for all to see, some embraced it, many would rather have burned us at the stake, but ultimately that didn't make the data any less valid.

Now if you will excuse me, I'm going back to my wonderful career of gish galloping.
 
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