That's how the system works in the game hahaha

[Ferial]

but in a truly random out come we would see way way more cases of same avatar hitting multiple 5 digit hof or ath in the same day but we dont so yes they're making sure it's "fair"

It is random, stochastically. The extreme right tail is just very very rare, and the activities that are able to generate "5 digit hofs" are generally slower and less people doing it.

Now if you disregard the flat value of things and look at just multipliers, it happens every now and then.

2x 500-600x multipliers in less than 24h.

Both on Annihilation Evis 06. From the log of these I had an average kill cost of ~5.89 at the time. (I only saved summaries back then) which means these are ~1875x and ~485x within 24 hours.

It happens. It is just very rare.

 

[Ferial]

And also, there is this:

Every loot event is completely independent, and not influenced by any past activity.

Which is very much in line with my data thus far on the matter.

 

[Sulje]

And also, there is this:

Every loot event is completely independent, and not influenced by any past activity.

Which is very much in line with my data thus far on the matter.

And waves are not a thing, and mindark doesn't track your average avatar tt return, and other things officials said and they turned out not to be true really.

Let's not forget the mining drama recently, where TT returns were reduced below 90% for no reason

 

[Ferial]

And waves are not a thing, and mindark doesn't track your average avatar tt return, and other things officials said and they turned out not to be true really.

Let's not forget the mining drama recently, where TT returns were reduced below 90% for no reason

I can't recollect a quote where it was said that waves are not a thing, so I can't comment on it. I would love to see it if you have it at hand. I do believe the "mindark doesn't track your average avatar tt return"-quote is taken out of context from dev notes #2 where it is worded something like this (not sure I recall verbatim):

There is no such thing as a personal loot pool for avatars, and there is no system in place which tracks each avatars returns over time, or which provides compensation to individual avatars.

I am not sure why you think there is such a system in place, but it is an interesting discussion point.

 

[James Jimbo Linehan]

I am not sure why you think there is such a system in place, but it is an interesting discussion point.

If you're really interested in seeing it you could do different professions and easily see it crossover. It makes all the sense in the world for MA to set it up this way. It makes it not gambling and deal with those laws and problems. It makes it so a noob that didnt deposit doesn't hit a massive hof/ath and withdraw it and instead goes to the guy that lost it so he can keep cycling. Why would they want 0 control over their ped distribution. Why would they want unnecessary risk with people TT profiting off of MA on the next bug that comes out (which bugs is multiple per day btw). They changed that in loot 2.0 with this method so they eliminate all risk on their end.

If you owned and ran this game like running a country and have the power to manipulate the economy and cash flow/distribution would you sacrifice it all and make it like crypto decentralized and no control leaving your livelyhood to chance? Of course not.

Want more ped in the game since there's a major shortage? No problem tweak increase payout immediately by paying back the people who lost it and not leave it to chance going to a withdrawing noob to defeat the purpose.

Want to payout 1 big ATH because it's been too long and want publicity? No problem tweak it so next person down the most gets a huge payout all in 1 shot instead of a few 10-20ks and again doesn't go to a withdrawing noob who withdraws it all leaving the whale still down a ton wanting to quit.

It's really crazy to me that people don't see this simply from presuppositions on a statistical analysis background or whatever, but to be fair it would be almost impossible thru hunting alone to tell.

 

[Seppo69]

If you're really interested in seeing it you could do different professions and easily see it crossover. It makes all the sense in the world for MA to set it up this way. It makes it not gambling and deal with those laws and problems. It makes it so a noob that didnt deposit doesn't hit a massive hof/ath and withdraw it and instead goes to the guy that lost it so he can keep cycling. Why would they want 0 control over their ped distribution. Why would they want unnecessary risk with people TT profiting off of MA on the next bug that comes out (which bugs is multiple per day btw). They changed that in loot 2.0 with this method so they eliminate all risk on their end.

If you owned and ran this game like running a country and have the power to manipulate the economy and cash flow/distribution would you sacrifice it all and make it like crypto decentralized and no control leaving your livelyhood to chance? Of course not.

Want more ped in the game since there's a major shortage? No problem tweak increase payout immediately by paying back the people who lost it and not leave it to chance going to a withdrawing noob to defeat the purpose.

Want to payout 1 big ATH because it's been too long and want publicity? No problem tweak it so next person down the most gets a huge payout all in 1 shot instead of a few 10-20ks and again doesn't go to a withdrawing noob who withdraws it all leaving the whale still down a ton wanting to quit.

It's really crazy to me that people don't see this simply from presuppositions on a statistical analysis background or whatever, but to be fair it would be almost impossible thru hunting alone to tell.

For me it was even more clear in loot 1.0. Had time after time after time "Midas touch" for day or two globaling everywhere, and time between loot was mainly very poor.

 

[Makitoki]

It is random, stochastically. The extreme right tail is just very very rare, and the activities that are able to generate "5 digit hofs" are generally slower and less people doing it.

Now if you disregard the flat value of things and look at just multipliers, it happens every now and then.

2x 500-600x multipliers in less than 24h.

Both on Annihilation Evis 06. From the log of these I had an average kill cost of ~5.89 at the time. (I only saved summaries back then) which means these are ~1875x and ~485x within 24 hours.

It happens. It is just very rare.

there is no "significant" differences of an individual getting two 2k hofs on the same day vs another getting a 4k hof other than the guy who got the two 2k hof had to spend double to achieve what the other did in one shot. my point is if it is totally random and there are no personal cycle/input/ouput being controlled than after 23 years we would of seen at least multiple occasion of the same avatar hitting 5 digit or ath on the same day.

another example yeah we seen same avatar on a single day do multiple 5 digit hof on shrapnel or the 200 ped a click gamble, cuz a 12k and a 30k is just a 60x and a 150x multipler from their "kills" plenty of example of any in game activity where u get 60x and 150x in the same run. but show me an avatar that gotten 1000x multiplier to 4000x multiplier in the same day/week on a significant cycle. point being if u get 10 400x multiplier that is no different than the max we seen of 4000x multiplier all u did was pay 10x vs the guy who got it all in one shot, but if u can show me someone getting multiple 4000x multiplier in a staticical relevent time frame based off of their actual cycle rate i would say yes game is totally random.

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

the only one i could find was from explosive crafting where the individual got 150k twice within a week or a month, but we cant see all of his cycle and as we all know it's pretty easy to lose 10k ped a day clicking exp4 non stop, but that was the one and only i could find from like 10+ years of data

not only is it fair, they have to make sure it's "fair" but in a truly random out come we would see way way more cases of same avatar hitting multiple 5 digit hof or ath in the same day but we dont so yes they're making sure it's "fair"

The probability of hitting a 2000x multi is extremely low, the crafting machine can do no more than 10k clicks and there are like 2 players mashing explosives like that.

Randomness makes it fair, lack of understanding of basic math makes people think it isn't.

I'd argue at worst that there are safe guards in place but that's about it.

 

[Makitoki]

The probability of hitting a 2000x multi is extremely low, the crafting machine can do no more than 10k clicks and there are like 2 players mashing explosives like that.

Randomness makes it fair, lack of understanding of basic math makes people think it isn't.

I'd argue at worst that there are safe guards in place but that's about it.

the fact there are safe guards in place removes "randomness"

also lets do it the other way, if it is truly random as so many believe why is it 99% of the player base can predict that 99.999% of the player base will get rekt in tt returns....it isnt random when we already know the tt return outcome for 99.999% of the player base

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

the fact there are safe guards in place removes "randomness"

Nowhere is there a fact about safe guards, I speculated that is as far as they would go.

Randomness is easy. If people could bother to watch a 10m YouTube video from Khan Academy and brush up on their middle school math these discussions wouldn't be necessary

 

[Makitoki]

Nowhere is there a fact about safe guards, I speculated that is as far as they would go.

Randomness is easy. If people could bother to watch a 10m YouTube video from Khan Academy and brush up on their middle school math these discussions wouldn't be necessary

i'll wager my 2 ped vs ur 1 ped on the randomness of every ingame activity, if it's random i shouldnt be able to predict with greater than 80% accuracy the tt return on every ingame activey from mining to crafting to hunting....i'll make my two ped vs anyone's one ped here what their tt output will be given their tools of trade being used, i am 99.99% positive after 10k trials u'll be broke and i'll have greater than 80% of the wins, i mean if it's random i shouldnt be able to do that

 

[Chronophobe]

we have the data. There is no RNG. If there was, you would see a whole bunch of different return percentages. Some people would be posting 10% returns for the year, etc. Also, with no RNG, you can easily say that any cycling you did before your loot event has no bearing over it, because everything is already predetermined by something else.

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

we have the data. There is no RNG. If there was, you would see a whole bunch of different return percentages. Some people would be posting 10% returns for the year, etc. Also, with no RNG, you can easily say that any cycling you did before your loot event has no bearing over it, because everything is already predetermined by something else.

This is not how rng works and that is exactly what people are doing.

It is a RNG with limitations. For instance it will aim for a ~0.95 average and it will never return 0 as a value. Just like a dice never will returns a value lower than 1 or greater than 6.

 

[Ferial]

i'll wager my 2 ped vs ur 1 ped on the randomness of every ingame activity, if it's random i shouldnt be able to predict with greater than 80% accuracy the tt return on every ingame activey from mining to crafting to hunting....

Yes. You can easily predict the outcome of any activity over time. This is because we know the distribution pretty well (because people have been mathing for years)

Now, if you can tell me what the outcome of my next instance I will be, and do that a couple of times, I will concede that it isn't random.

You can take any lottery in the world and say "this will likely be the outcome over time". I can predict with great accuracy that you will not win the next jackpot, and I can tell you with great accuracy what your return over time will be, given enough draws. Are lotteries not random.

we have the data. There is no RNG. If there was, you would see a whole bunch of different return percentages. Some people would be posting 10% returns for the year, etc. Also, with no RNG, you can easily say that any cycling you did before your loot event has no bearing over it, because everything is already predetermined by something else.

We have the data, it is random. You could theoretically have people end up with min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances (by the way, this is over 10%). Getting min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances is as unlikely as hitting 2x x1500+ multipliers in a row (depending on how high we set "significant number", of course)

A normal dice produces a predictable outcome over time, so does a coin flip, yet every instance(roll, flip) is independent and identically distributed.

Is a dice roll or a coin flip not random because we can predict the outcome over time?

 

[Chronophobe]

Yes. You can easily predict the outcome of any activity over time. This is because we know the distribution pretty well (because people have been mathing for years)

Now, if you can tell me what the outcome of my next instance I will be, and do that a couple of times, I will concede that it isn't random.

You can take any lottery in the world and say "this will likely be the outcome over time". I can predict with great accuracy that you will not win the next jackpot, and I can tell you with great accuracy what your return over time will be, given enough draws. Are lotteries not random.



We have the data, it is random. You could theoretically have people end up with min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances (by the way, this is over 10%). Getting min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances is as unlikely as hitting 2x x1500+ multipliers in a row (depending on how high we set "significant number", of course)

A normal dice produces a predictable outcome over time, so does a coin flip, yet every instance(roll, flip) is independent and identically distributed.

Is a dice roll or a coin flip not random because we can predict the outcome over time?

I shouldn't be talking maths in public. When I mine for years and my hitrate for claims is a rock solid 30% over more drops than you can count, there is no randomness there. I'm just going with my own proof. Why do you think we were instantly able to detect the smallest change in our system within a matter of days after a change was made ? Come on mate. Side note - those are some sweet hofs and I would be some satisfied on a week like that, gz for those. Do you happen to know what your returns were for that year ? Were you still at a loss, did you profit ? Curious.

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

Yes. You can easily predict the outcome of any activity over time. This is because we know the distribution pretty well (because people have been mathing for years)

Now, if you can tell me what the outcome of my next instance I will be, and do that a couple of times, I will concede that it isn't random.

You can take any lottery in the world and say "this will likely be the outcome over time". I can predict with great accuracy that you will not win the next jackpot, and I can tell you with great accuracy what your return over time will be, given enough draws. Are lotteries not random.



We have the data, it is random. You could theoretically have people end up with min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances (by the way, this is over 10%). Getting min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances is as unlikely as hitting 2x x1500+ multipliers in a row (depending on how high we set "significant number", of course)

A normal dice produces a predictable outcome over time, so does a coin flip, yet every instance(roll, flip) is independent and identically distributed.

Is a dice roll or a coin flip not random because we can predict the outcome over time?

Math won't help here. If you tell them that the expected outcome of a long run of dice rolls is 3.5 they will roll it once and scream scam.

 

[Chronophobe]

Math won't help here. If you tell them that the expected outcome of a long run of dice rolls is 3.5 they will roll it once and scream scam.

you guys are gonna tell me next that the coins of the world favor coming up heads, I know it.

 

[Makitoki]

Yes. You can easily predict the outcome of any activity over time. This is because we know the distribution pretty well (because people have been mathing for years)

Now, if you can tell me what the outcome of my next instance I will be, and do that a couple of times, I will concede that it isn't random.

You can take any lottery in the world and say "this will likely be the outcome over time". I can predict with great accuracy that you will not win the next jackpot, and I can tell you with great accuracy what your return over time will be, given enough draws. Are lotteries not random.



We have the data, it is random. You could theoretically have people end up with min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances (by the way, this is over 10%). Getting min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances is as unlikely as hitting 2x x1500+ multipliers in a row (depending on how high we set "significant number", of course)

A normal dice produces a predictable outcome over time, so does a coin flip, yet every instance(roll, flip) is independent and identically distributed.

Is a dice roll or a coin flip not random because we can predict the outcome over time?

i can tell you when u go craft explosive on condition that 95 times it will be a failed, and 5 out of those 100 times it'll be a success between 148 to 180 ped, we can break that down to 100 tries and i'll say it'll fail every single time and i'll be right 95 times on avg over a sample size in the millions if u you like, let me know when ur ready to make that wager

 

[Makitoki]

you all are absolutely right it's so random that 100% of the ppl in this game has not beaten the tt....imagine the chances of 10s of thousands of ppl who has played this game and not a single one has beaten the tt, not even ppl who hit 6 digit ath(myself included and i hit that 6 digit ath twice) has beaten the tt, but that is statisitically irrelevent that 0% has beaten the tt but yes it's random....look at the hof board on any given day please explain to me how it's possible for every hunter that hit a major hof on mayhem mob is different and not a single one of em hit that 12k eviscerator back to back how it's so evenly distributed among the 100s hunting a day....but yeah it's random

 

[Makitoki]

Yes. You can easily predict the outcome of any activity over time. This is because we know the distribution pretty well (because people have been mathing for years)

Now, if you can tell me what the outcome of my next instance I will be, and do that a couple of times, I will concede that it isn't random.

You can take any lottery in the world and say "this will likely be the outcome over time". I can predict with great accuracy that you will not win the next jackpot, and I can tell you with great accuracy what your return over time will be, given enough draws. Are lotteries not random.



We have the data, it is random. You could theoretically have people end up with min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances (by the way, this is over 10%). Getting min multiplier over a significant number of loot instances is as unlikely as hitting 2x x1500+ multipliers in a row (depending on how high we set "significant number", of course)

A normal dice produces a predictable outcome over time, so does a coin flip, yet every instance(roll, flip) is independent and identically distributed.

Is a dice roll or a coin flip not random because we can predict the outcome over time?

is a lottery with just 2 number random? now lets do 3 numbers, now lets try 4, and now lets try 1000 numbers, and the combinaton of win is determined by 2, 3, 4, 1000, can you now see how if you are given a set criteria the out come is a given already. a truly random event means the outcome is fundamentally unpredictable. the fact that a lottery is only winnable by a set criteria of output numbers make it fundamentally not random. you go shoot an eviscerator and all of a sudden 42690 sandwiches shows up in ur mail box due to you shooting an eviscerator would be somewhat considered random.

 

[Ferial]

Today I learned I am going to have a rough time explaining statistics an probability to my children when they come to age.

Thank you

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

Today I learned I am going to have a rough time explaining statistics an probability to my children when they come to age.

Thank you

I understand why people who are doing well stopped trying to help people, there is no way to magically fight off confirmation bias and a lack of understanding numbers.

In order to be able to play sustainably you either need to understand OR accept the understanding conveyed by others in long term outcomes of randomness. After that point it is possible to adjust your gameplay to fill in the gap.

Biggest mistake is people don't understand that a 95%-96% day is great. We are aiming towards a loss constantly.

 

[Makitoki]

and when they learn ur draw the experience from entropia there will be lots of relearning

 

[Bender]

Quite interesting to see such divergence between ideas of how the loot system works between veteran players, it does truly make this game unique.

Biggest mistake is people don't understand that a 95%-96% day is great. We are aiming towards a loss constantly.

This right here is the main reason that made me fail to transition from 1.0 to 2.0, which led to intense boredom and consequent moving on.

Was used to this variance, even with decent DPP setup:

For me it was even more clear in loot 1.0. Had time after time after time "Midas touch" for day or two globaling everywhere, and time between loot was mainly very poor.

I was obviously still playing at a loss, but the excitement of those nice periods would make up for the poor loot ones and the reasonable MU would allow a decent pay per shoot game. It was quite nice finishing a day, a week or even a month seeing the Pedcard substantially increased .

Nonetheless this is the current state game, and I've played very little (around 50k peds cycled) since my return so I'll keep sticking around and see how it goes. One thing is sure, if I had plans to increase my game they are vanished and I ain't gonna play with more than "pizza money" for the time being. I'll get some decent DPP/Eff L setup, hunt small stuff focusing on the MU of the uncommon drops, and keep building my dataset.

For MA my 2 worthless cents would be:

- First and foremost, focus on rebuilding your dedicated clients trust, it's clear as water (not the one you can fish in) that trust is loss and patience depleted and just stop these sneaky bullshits like changing mining loot system without any announcement or hiding the point system on the Mayhem event. I mean, the reason you provided for the latter is ridiculous.
You lose these guys, and you're a goner. You replace them with braindead Fortnite players, and you're a goner; your game doesn't provide what it needs to retain them. Focus on "quality" not "quantity" and plan a strategy to get more players like the ones you have now.

-Fix what is lacking for a complete RCE ecosystem. I still have the messages of my auctions sells back then, and we went for okayish MU to really bad MU; Hunting outside Calypso/Aris is fking expensive; Having UL items = Bag holder, there's almost no chance they will currently gain value and to sell it's a complete pain, I could keep going and going but my idea with this should be evident now.


I hope I'm just missing the big picture of MA plans here, and if so, please enlighten me, I'm always open to learn .

 

[Seppo69]

is a lottery with just 2 number random? now lets do 3 numbers, now lets try 4, and now lets try 1000 numbers, and the combinaton of win is determined by 2, 3, 4, 1000, can you now see how if you are given a set criteria the out come is a given already. a truly random event means the outcome is fundamentally unpredictable. the fact that a lottery is only winnable by a set criteria of output numbers make it fundamentally not random. you go shoot an eviscerator and all of a sudden 42690 sandwiches shows up in ur mail box due to you shooting an eviscerator would be somewhat considered random.

Im with you that entropia doesn't seem to be 100% random, but lottery...? How could anyone say it is not random

 

[Sulje]

I can't recollect a quote where it was said that waves are not a thing, so I can't comment on it. I would love to see it if you have it at hand. I do believe the "mindark doesn't track your average avatar tt return"-quote is taken out of context from dev notes #2 where it is worded something like this (not sure I recall verbatim):

There is no such thing as a personal loot pool for avatars, and there is no system in place which tracks each avatars returns over time, or which provides compensation to individual avatars.

I am not sure why you think there is such a system in place, but it is an interesting discussion point.

I don't have time or will to dig trough all of the statements, but you can do so since you have more time.

Statistics is irrelevant in this conversation, it's about game understanding, which there is none, and lack of bankroll to sustain wishes and dreams.

 

[James Jimbo Linehan]

I can't recollect a quote where it was said that waves are not a thing, so I can't comment on it. I would love to see it if you have it at hand. I do believe the "mindark doesn't track your average avatar tt return"-quote is taken out of context from dev notes #2 where it is worded something like this (not sure I recall verbatim):

There is no such thing as a personal loot pool for avatars, and there is no system in place which tracks each avatars returns over time, or which provides compensation to individual avatars.

I am not sure why you think there is such a system in place, but it is an interesting discussion point.

If you know waves are a thing and can admit that then you'd also know that is when multipliers or bigger loot come during this wave period so items can have more than a 0.20x input cost on the TT of say a gun or a fap or how useless would a 150p gun be if you looted it with 0.50p tt on it. Knowing this already then you'd I think be able to also agree that hunting only during this time would be TT profit right? All we would see in this game is people wavehunting only and instead what do we have bots and macros going 24/7 which would be the dumbest thing you could possibly do if it was all random with waves. Random without waves sure then the 24/7 would make sense. This part I'm having a hard time understanding since you do know about 1 part of the formula already and seem like a smart guy. What do you believe here that there is tons of TT profiteers out there from wavehunting only or do you not notice the long stretches of almost no multipliers then all of a sudden they start up? People could easily use small dps and when wave time hits then 100x their dps or wait for someone to tell them it started and game would end up breaking quick. Instead they do that only for the MU not TT profit since it's personal loot.

 

[UnaAlconbury]

If you know waves are a thing and can admit that then you'd also know that is when multipliers or bigger loot come during this wave period so items can have more than a 0.20x input cost on the TT of say a gun or a fap or how useless would a 150p gun be if you looted it with 0.50p tt on it. Knowing this already then you'd I think be able to also agree that hunting only during this time would be TT profit right? All we would see in this game is people wavehunting only and instead what do we have bots and macros going 24/7 which would be the dumbest thing you could possibly do if it was all random with waves. Random without waves sure then the 24/7 would make sense. This part I'm having a hard time understanding since you do know about 1 part of the formula already and seem like a smart guy. What do you believe here that there is tons of TT profiteers out there from wavehunting only or do you not notice the long stretches of almost no multipliers then all of a sudden they start up? People could easily use small dps and when wave time hits then 100x their dps or wait for someone to tell them it started and game would end up breaking quick. Instead they do that only for the MU not TT profit since it's personal loot.

People are not TT profiting from waves. It’s waves for refilled resources, nothing to do with TT. You still need big enough TT loot to be able to ”fit in” the refilled item/resource, so to speak. TT roll first as a multiplier of your input, AFTER that it’s then filled with available resources through rolls of their droprate.

Items such as the ”150 ped gun” you mention are labeled with a min TT as % of max TT that it can drop at, as well.

I don’t know why I bothered posting in this retarded thread though, since y’all have resorted to claiming MA is lying anyway lol

 

[James Jimbo Linehan]

People are not TT profiting from waves. It’s waves for refilled resources, nothing to do with TT. You still need big enough TT loot to be able to ”fit in” the refilled item/resource, so to speak. TT roll first as a multiplier of your input, AFTER that it’s then filled with available resources through rolls of their droprate.

Items such as the ”150 ped gun” you mention are labeled with a min TT as % of max TT that it can drop at, as well.

I don’t know why I bothered posting in this retarded thread though, since y’all have resorted to claiming MA is lying anyway lol

Haha they 100% lie and/or mislead like with the easily noticeable mining thing recently where it was first just said "it's working as intended" to after 1000 complaining to something like "yes we did actually change it drastically". But I get that some lies and misleads might be more beneficial from a business standpoint.

I understand the rolling for TT amount first to if high enough then the item could come part or whatever. The part that I'm talking about tho is there is clearly more in far greater numbers of multipliers during time frames. If you hunted only during these time frames you would TT profit. But we can't. And why is that? Because we first have to lose the ped to be able to get the ped back in the form of multipliers. Hence personal loot pool or else there would be TT profiters if loss wasn't needed first because you could just ONLY hunt during these periods and not during the loss (input) periods with no multipliers.

Is the argument from the random crowd that they don't notice the short multipliers times? Or that there isn't any? I'm trying to figure that out, out of curiosity.

 

[UnaAlconbury]

Haha they 100% lie and/or mislead like with the easily noticeable mining thing recently where it was first just said "it's working as intended" to after 1000 complaining to something like "yes we did actually change it drastically". But I get that some lies and misleads might be more beneficial from a business standpoint.

I understand the rolling for TT amount first to if high enough then the item could come part or whatever. The part that I'm talking about tho is there is clearly more in far greater numbers of multipliers during time frames. If you hunted only during these time frames you would TT profit. But we can't. And why is that? Because we first have to lose the ped to be able to get the ped back in the form of multipliers. Hence personal loot pool or else there would be TT profiters if loss wasn't needed first because you could just ONLY hunt during these periods and not during the loss (input) periods with no multipliers.

Is the argument from the random crowd that they don't notice the short multipliers times? Or that there isn't any? I'm trying to figure that out, out of curiosity.

”Working as intended” does not negate a change was made. That was not a lie. They changed it into how it was intended, as per their wording.

The rest of your post, well we are simply too far to have an argument, really.

There are not more big multipliers during certain time frames. If you believe so you have fallen for apophenia. Not a bad thing, a lot of people do since it’s a perfectly normal human tendency.
It’s just same algorithm with its possible multiplier groups and their probabilities, run over and over again each loot.

There is no personal loot pool or a mechanism that checks previous activity to then affect the multiplier.