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That's how the system works in the game hahaha

On Thomas, is the dungeon on Arcadia and in the hell of rocktropy effective for every X-7 roll or not?
 
Bender said:
I really am interested in learning how to get as close as possible to breaking even in this game so imma pop out how I see stuff, and please correct me where my perception is failling.

For the level I'm hunting, the MU is really on the uncommon drops that seems to have a defined approx. drop rate amount for PED spent. The crap with 101-102% are just that tiny extra that does make difference on the long term. If possible, stacking stuff and understand the market needs and fluctuations and sell on the right time, can indeed stretch this MU. I'm already noticing some patterns, like the MU change on some items with Mayhem ongoing and taking advantage of it.
With my current TT return, I am far from breaking even with MU. Why?
I can think about that I haven't cycled enough, but this also should imply that I'm dependent on TT return on not MU anymore.
I can think that my setup had a pre 2.0 gun and with lower looter lvls, it's just giving me too low TT return.
I can think that now I'm using a 75% eff gun but the MU I pay for it eats the chance of breaking even.
I can think that If I would buy a 30k Gauss with 90% eff, I could have a chance for it, but I don't wanna do this for the time being.


What do you mean by anyone? As I see it, not anyone can get close to break even, and current MU is not enough for everyone.
What am I failing to grasp here?
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If you can't do well with limited gear you won't be doing great with an expensive weapon either.

The most important part for consistent returns is lowering cost to kill either by raising DPP or doing smaller mobs. You then need to take a step back and zoom out.

So far this year small samples of my returns have been anywhere from below 70% up to 3000%. But when I zoom out it has been consistently jumping around 94%-99% spending most of the time around 95%-96%. My mayhem so far is slightly below 93% but I am at break even (People undercutting on boxes no so selling mine in a few weeks, expect bump in pill prices again when people stopped undercutting each other).

Over samples of 10,000 kills that I recorded with exact same cost to kill for every loot event I believe my lowest was 88% even though that was rare. Keep in mind one single 2,000x multi will make up for 2,000 no looters in a row and this is what people forget. The variance makes us play at a big loss since it wouldn't work otherwise. 100x multis are pretty common and makes up for 100 no looters. One night at 100% makes up for almost two nights at 90% since our end goal is a loss.

Keeping this in mind you can expect long term to have a certain return but there is no guarantee for when that will happen just that if you stick to it you will get there eventually which is why it would be wise to also have a tolerance.

I expect long term 96%, having a tolerance of 2% in mind (94%-98%) cuts the required loot events required to even out by a lot, then I go to town. With 94% in mind I am good doing most AI missions since shrapnel and rewards (0.94%+3.6%) adds up to 4.54% and put my expected value between 98.54%-102.54% mid term and 100.54% long term. The gap needed to clear that tiny 1.5% is easily done with markup from pills and loot.

Aris has been free money since launch. A few mobs have high enough markup but barely need those at the moment.

Consistency is key. You need hundreds of thousands of loot events before you can be certain but most often you don't need that many. Just make sure you constantly cover that perceived gap between break even and expected return and you are good. Then the magic high MU drops happen and you are doing even better.
 
The reality is that a 2000x multiplier is essentially a once in a lifetime event for a casual player. I've been around for 20 years, and I honestly don't remember ever hitting even a 1000x. If you are not hunting 10 hours a day, but maybe 10 hours a week, then expecting 96-98% returns (even over the year) is probably unrealistic.

Personally, I've accepted that. I just do my thing, focus on MU, and assume that the big multipliers will come eventually - maybe tomorrow, maybe in few years from now.
 
Northberg said:
The reality is that a 2000x multiplier is essentially a once in a lifetime event for a casual player. I've been around for 20 years, and I honestly don't remember ever hitting even a 1000x. If you are not hunting 10 hours a day, but maybe 10 hours a week, then expecting 96-98% returns (even over the year) is probably unrealistic.

Personally, I've accepted that. I just do my thing, focus on MU, and assume that the big multipliers will come eventually - maybe tomorrow, maybe in few years from now.
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For a very casual player it might be once in a lifetime yeah, because it's all about number of loot events and people tend to hunt slightly too big (as in cost per kill) mobs for their bankroll. I've advocated that MA make it a lot less volatile, for example by not having as extreme range as 0.20x - 2000x. It just takes too many kills to reach expected longterm return in most cases.

My log of ~1.2 million loot events, along with other independent sources, hint at something around 1/100000 probability for the 2000x multiplier. In average you'll hit one of those per 100k kills. Depending on which mobs you hunt and how many you can kill per day, for some people it might take many years to reach 100k kills. And as always with probabilities it's of course not guaranteed you hit one after 100k kills either. You might hit first 2000x multi after 763 kills or you might hit first 2000x multi at kill number 487562.

As a matter of fact, to NOT hit something with 1/100k chance over 500k rolls, that happens (1-1/100000)^500000 = 0.006738 = about 1 in 148, which means of 148 players that all crossed the 500k kill mark, there's in average one player that didn't hit a 2000x multi over that span. It's harsh but the way the loot system is set up, it can happen. Extremely important to match cost per kill of the mobs you hunt with the bankroll you have available, so you can reach a healthy amount of kills.

EDIT:
To expand on this, to NOT hit something with 1/100k chance over a certain amount of kills:
(1-1/100000)^10000 = 0.9048 = of 100 players that cross the 10k kill mark, 90 of them did not hit a x2000
(1-1/100000)^50000 = 0.6065 = of 100 players that cross the 50k kill mark, 61 of them did not hit a x2000
(1-1/100000)^100000 = 0.3679 = of 100 players that cross the 100k kill mark, 37 of them did not hit a x2000
(1-1/100000)^200000 = 0.1353 = of 100 players that cross the 200k kill mark, 13 of them did not hit a x2000

Food for thought
 
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UnaAlconbury said:
For a very casual player it might be once in a lifetime yeah, because it's all about number of loot events and people tend to hunt slightly too big (as in cost per kill) mobs for their bankroll. I've advocated that MA make it a lot less volatile, for example by not having as extreme range as 0.20x - 2000x. It just takes too many kills to reach expected longterm return in most cases.

My log of ~1.2 million loot events, along with other independent sources, hint at something around 1/100000 probability for the 2000x multiplier. In average you'll hit one of those per 100k kills. Depending on which mobs you hunt and how many you can kill per day, for some people it might take many years to reach 100k kills. And as always with probabilities it's of course not guaranteed you hit one after 100k kills either. You might hit first 2000x multi after 763 kills or you might hit first 2000x multi at kill number 487562.

As a matter of fact, to NOT hit something with 1/100k chance over 500k rolls, that happens (1-1/100000)^500000 = 0.006738 = about 1 in 148, which means of 148 players that all crossed the 500k kill mark, there's in average one player that didn't hit a 2000x multi over that span. It's harsh but the way the loot system is set up, it can happen. Extremely important to match cost per kill of the mobs you hunt with the bankroll you have available, so you can reach a healthy amount of kills.
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I'd like to add the 2000x multi is not necessary, neither is the 1000x to hit expected return as I shared with you with my numbers keeping me above my EV without any meaningful multipliers January through February.

If hit rate is 1/100,000 then people should consider missing it means at most a 2% deviation and other multipliers may have appeared during the time.

It is feasible to play sustainably even if one is dependent on the 2000x..
 
UnaAlconbury said:
My log of ~1.2 million loot events, along with other independent sources, hint at something around 1/100000 probability for the 2000x multiplier.
Click to expand...

Huh, that is interesting. My data albeit with fewer data points, has it as significantly more rare than that.
Time will tell.

Thank you for sharing
 
James Jimbo Linehan said:
Haha nice try bucko but the king of data named sulje is on our side! Even got data we don't have access 2.

@Chronophobe don't take offense 2 it he means well usually hah I just come here more so for entertainment purposes takes my mind off of all the money I'm losing... except when MA messes with my returns then it's serious mode time lol

2 be honest tho like skeptic said more people that don't know how the system works the better. But it's now too late for that since everyone who reads the forum already knows about waves and personal loot pool facts and that the randomness conspiracy theory is for gamblers who think they can beat the house. We need more gamblers for game to survive so the rest of us can have MU.
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Noted, we can discuss loot returns in RL at some point maybe.
 
WhiningSkeptic said:
It wouldn't help.

People will still be hunting above their level because they can. Only way to sort it out would be making req for a LR10 50. I have something like 300 MA DPS at the moment, much more than I could ever have thought I would have and I was upset that I had to do 2000HP mobs to cycle through mayhem at reasonable pace because it is higher than I would like. People with a quarter of that and smaller bankroll hunts bigger mobs than me.

You can overcome 5% if you pay attention but people don't. Lowering the variance would make the same people leave because they dont play the game, they play the house. Lowering the rake means less big payouts which means less incentive for these people since they do not care about sustainability but that one big hit.

People cry about lack of markup during mayhem, it is above 106%. Problem isn't the game, it is the players.
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Big hits can still occur with higher returns, if short term volatility is higher, like in loot 1.0. But yeah I know it's not possible before UE5 transition has been made and MA can cut their expenses and/or we get more players.
 
Some pointers:

Randomness != Probability
Coin flip was mentioned. So you get HHHHH HHHHH and reading that it makes sense to believe that the next one has to be Tails and it's impossible to be Heads again and if it really is Heads the whole system is rigged!!!

Well, the probability may agree that it is unlikely, but that one next flip is still random and both Heads and Tails have a 50% chance to hit.

"Random" doesn't mean that internally a random() method is called
It's enough to make something seem random, any formula with more or less fixed values will do. Example: "We take a number, multiply it with 12345678 and take the last six digits as the result". The input number can be anything non-random, in in-game terms it could be the total decay of your action, the number of item units in the inventory, ...

If you only look at the various numbers resulting from that formula, you'll probably be sure that it's all random and unpredictable. However, if you know the formula you'll understand that it's in fact not random, it even is reproducible.

Story Time
I remember reading somewhere (I don't know if this is true, though) that in a very early version of Project Entropia the direction you were looking had an impact on the loot value. Someone figured it out and many had good hunting loot until this was fixed.

Also if IIRC, at one point there was a regulation that things must not be literally random in EU. MindArk had to fix this. This may have been around the time when PEDs/PECs were removed from the loot.
 
BAMM I rest my case... for those who don't know what I mean by this can easily check the hofboard.. personal loot and payback period 1 and randomness 0. Good day gentlemen.
 
James Jimbo Linehan said:
BAMM I rest my case... for those who don't know what I mean by this can easily check the hofboard.. personal loot and payback period 1 and randomness 0. Good day gentlemen.
Click to expand...
Icewind was about 98% TT 2025 and somewhere above 90% last time I talked to him about it a while ago on the year before these two, think he was around 104% after first one and this one probably gonna add a few percent. It is evidence of no personal loot pool and paybacks.

He will require over a million ped cycle for these to be negated.
 
UnaAlconbury said:
Apophenia 1-0 Common sense
;)
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What are the odds for not 1 but 2 hits of that size by same avatar in 24-48 hr window while there is the most people game has seen in a while all grinding gen 9/10 mayhem high hp mobs? I'm not good with math but since it's rare to even see a hit like that at all by anyone in short time frames the odds have got to be up there. But then to have it happen repeatedly is pretty weird for instance easily memorable things like 20k+ and 13k same day by agg mining which thats big for mining etc. I'm not sure why MA doesn't like to pay out ATHs as often and break it up sometimes like with mad Marty in past (I know he wasn't thrilled about that) but so many cases really do make a pattern and to ignore it becomes willful blindness.

WhiningSkeptic said:
Icewind was about 98% TT 2025 and somewhere above 90% on the year before these two, think he was around 104% after first one and this one probably gonna add a few percent. It is evidence of no personal loot pool and paybacks.

He will require over a million ped cycle for these to be negated.
Click to expand...
It's over account life not 1 year
 
Do you have access to his old returns? I could probably ask him but then you would come with something else.
 
James Jimbo Linehan said:
What are the odds for not 1 but 2 hits of that size by same avatar in 24-48 hr window while there is the most people game has seen in a while all grinding gen 9/10 mayhem high hp mobs? I'm not good with math but since it's rare to even see a hit like that at all by anyone in short time frames the odds have got to be up there. But then to have it happen repeatedly is pretty weird for instance easily memorable things like 20k+ and 13k same day by agg mining which thats big for mining etc. I'm not sure why MA doesn't like to pay out ATHs as often and break it up sometimes like with mad Marty in past (I know he wasn't thrilled about that) but so many cases really do make a pattern and to ignore it becomes willful blindness.


It's over account life not 1 year
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Two multis like that (1700x first one, don’t know second) can and does happen in a multiplier distribution algo, it’s nothing strange at all. Think about how many 1700-2000x hofs happen as singles and not doubles, in relation to occasions like this for example. It’s an emotionally filled event and it sticks out yes, so loads of people susceptible to apophenia are going to blow its significance out of proportion and start trying to connect it to a pattern, which isn’t there. Perfectly human response
 
WhiningSkeptic said:
Do you have access to his old returns? I could probably ask him but then you would come with something else.
Click to expand...
For him specifically I was referring to a payback period and just because its a recent example and has to do with how the "personal loot pool" (really more personal loss and a combined pool of peds that it draws from and probably why it's often broken up and not an ATH to not drain it entirely but i call it personal loot pool) you must have noticed getting many multis in a day or 2 and doing really well even if not as well as he just did per se. But I'm actual curious on the odds do you know? Like each 1 is what a once a week hit size and with idk 3000 players alts + mains for mayhem what would it be?
 
UnaAlconbury said:
Two multis like that (1700x first one, don’t know second) can and does happen in a multiplier distribution algo, it’s nothing strange at all. Think about how many 1700-2000x hofs happen as singles and not doubles, in relation to occasions like this for example. It’s an emotionally filled event and it sticks out yes, so loads of people susceptible to apophenia are going to blow its significance out of proportion and start trying to connect it to a pattern, which isn’t there. Perfectly human response
Click to expand...
Now your pointing to something else a multiplier figure. Weren't you just saying how it's 100k loot event a minute ago and 100k loot events of mobs this size would take how long hunting 8 hours a day? Months? Years? And we are talking what 24 hrs +- 10 hours but also talking same person. And has happened many times in a short period same person even tho that ped size is rare and typically tops off around 10,000 for most part just so MA can have people get excited hiting a 5 digit even if barely over.
 
UnaAlconbury said:
Two multis like that (1700x first one, don’t know second) can and does happen in a multiplier distribution algo, it’s nothing strange at all. Think about how many 1700-2000x hofs happen as singles and not doubles, in relation to occasions like this for example. It’s an emotionally filled event and it sticks out yes, so loads of people susceptible to apophenia are going to blow its significance out of proportion and start trying to connect it to a pattern, which isn’t there. Perfectly human response
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It's normally called jackpot in gambling industry
 
James Jimbo Linehan said:
Now your pointing to something else a multiplier figure. Weren't you just saying how it's 100k loot event a minute ago and 100k loot events of mobs this size would take how long hunting 8 hours a day? Months? Years? And we are talking what 24 hrs +- 10 hours but also talking same person. And has happened many times in a short period same person even tho that ped size is rare and typically tops off around 10,000 for most part just so MA can have people get excited hiting a 5 digit even if barely over.
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In AVERAGE, not to forget. And that was for the 2000x in particular, this was two different ones so can’t directly compare it like that either.

What happened is rare as hell yes, but it can and does happen.

It’s also hard to discuss this because you are thinking in an absolute value (ped) and time basis when you should look at it on a per loot event and multiplier basis.
 
it is all fake advertising, you see on net that you will have 95% in long run, but in reality if you deposit 100euro, it will be taken in 24h from your account
 
Ferial said:
I'll counter:

index.php
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They don't make years liek 2023, for me at least :D

m8wuIoY.png
 
It was posed, several times "if it is random, we would see people getting large multipliers close together"

We said, "it can and does happen, it is just rare"

Then it happens and people go

"Look two large multipliers close together, this is not random, this is a payback period"

It seems like we are just too far apart to even be having a discussion about these things.
 
narcotic said:
it is all fake advertising, you see on net that you will have 95% in long run, but in reality if you deposit 100euro, it will be taken in 24h from your account
Click to expand...

This mate:
UnaAlconbury said:
it's all about number of loot events and people tend to hunt slightly too big (as in cost per kill) mobs for their bankroll. I've advocated that MA make it a lot less volatile, for example by not having as extreme range as 0.20x - 2000x. It just takes too many kills to reach expected longterm return in most cases.
Click to expand...
 
Ferial said:
It was posed, several times "if it is random, we would see people getting large multipliers close together"

We said, "it can and does happen, it is just rare"

Then it happens and people go

"Look two large multipliers close together, this is not random, this is a payback period"

It seems like we are just too far apart to even be having a discussion about these things.
Click to expand...
We are not far apart, we are on completely different matters. Some here argue the earth is flat while we are arguing it is round. No matter what happens we cannot convince them.
 
What people should be taking away from this thread is that there is no way to "force" it. It will happen to anyone provided they shoot long enough. I know this became a meme, with keep shooting, but it's just the way this is.

As long as the main focus is to be sustainable via markup farming (or depositing, if people find it too boring and not play for profit but play for fun :D ), one can not avoided such events indefinitely.

Loot is like love, or like a fart. If you force it too much, it turns to shit.
 
Evey said:
What people should be taking away from this thread is that there is no way to "force" it. It will happen to anyone provided they shoot long enough. I know this became a meme, with keep shooting, but it's just the way this is.

As long as the main focus is to be sustainable via markup farming (or depositing, if people find it too boring and not play for profit but play for fun :D ), one can not avoided such events indefinitely.

Loot is like love, or like a fart. If you force it too much, it turns to shit.
Click to expand...
Oh there will be a big pile of poo on LA5 before this damn week is over
 
Let me put this as simply as possible:

If "Paybacks", "Payback periods" or the likes, and "Clawbacks", "Clawback periods" or the likes were real, there would be an observable change to distribution prior to an event like the one discussed and/or after.

I don't see that in my dataset, but what is observable is that these types of events occur naturally within a fixed distribution

To return to the bowl reference from earlier:

My data indicates that "Paybacks" and "Clawbacks" are luck (or misfortune) in the draw from the bowl[variance], and not "More added big multipliers in the bowl" or "Removed low multipliers in the bowl"[system in place to alter distribution based on past results]. This would be observable, unless the change is so small that it is buried in noise and practically irrelevant.
 
Ferial said:
Let me put this as simply as possible:

If "Paybacks", "Payback periods" or the likes, and "Clawbacks", "Clawback periods" or the likes were real, there would be an observable change to distribution prior to an event like the one discussed and/or after.

I don't see that in my dataset, but what is observable is that these types of events occur naturally within a fixed distribution

To return to the bowl reference from earlier:

My data indicates that "Paybacks" and "Clawbacks" are luck (or misfortune) in the draw from the bowl, and not "More added big multipliers in the bowl" or "Removed low multipliers in the bowl". This would be observable, unless the change is so small that it is buried in noise and practically irrelevant.
Click to expand...
Also, with my ~1.2 million kill log as base, an algorithm with those individual multiplier groupings and probabilities was created and run several times. Each of those fabricated graphs looked exactly the same as the graphs of people’s TT return logs. It had all the characteristics; dips and peaks hovering the expected value, where all the usual suspects would go ”ahhh look there’s the payback”. The hunting TT return graphs and the graph of a multiplier probability algorithm have all the same characteristics. Because loot return is a multiplier probability algorithm, nothing else. No personal loot pool, no previous activity having any effect on future multipliers and results, as also confirmed by MA several times with the latest from Socrates on Discord today.
 
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