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The book of shades (NI)

Msturlese

Msturlese

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Marco Killy Stur
The item itself is part of a series of 3 used to enable for quester the ability to spawn the Gorgon Shade (www.nihelper.com) has all the descriptions.
I will focus on some points to explain what is really in the crafting quest.
1. it is a 12 step quest line that brings to crafting some useless materials , waste some money in decay and receive as a premium the book, nothing special
2. quest needs "Minotaur horns" as an item, best way to farm them is coupled with teh Asterion/acherous Daily quest that reward some Looter related secondary skills, very useful, (drops in decent amount)
3. Quest requires about 600 (700 to be safe) "amazon legs" dropping my myrinians, best place is pelagos teleporter, kill from range because they swarm, use robot armor and all is smooth apart dropping very few so , alternatively if you unlocked magic forest instance consider to kill the ghost screecher (MU rich, best monster for low level fighters on Nextisland, Kill with liakorn armor for cold attack, look at loot table and you will understand why). dont start the quest before gathering amazon legs or you will crew
4. rest of materials are trivial, lysterium, iron, local crystals available in nice quantitues

before lamenting for 12 step remember that step 6....12 are basically reimbursed for TT and they absorb in their value elements from the steps 1...5 so yo uwill statistically just loose mu + (tt cost of craft *(100%-success rate%) on the quest line
for the rest of the crafts you will loose the same quantity
then there is failsafe rate, i calculate at 40% so need to craft 2.5x (1/0.4) the items to have enough materials.

of course notional is high but i made 3 books tnd i kept track on the results obtained
1st book (BP Quality was 1... really painful) i lost 800 ped in the craft
2nd book i lost (better BP quality) 540 ped in the quest
3rd Book i lost 490 ped with even better bp quality

regarding skill levels required, they are very low, beginner crafters or just people getting skills from outflow of other professions can afford them

Let's examine what to craft and if it is hard to understand i will try to explain in a second post the cost to craft each line and the RISK for each line

teh TT stages allow to sell to tradeterminal the garbage crafted (statues and columns) that have zero market so the TT value of craft is recouped


STAGEBRICKBLOCKCYLINDERMORTARELYSIAREF ONYXchiselmortar
12​
2​
2​
6​
66​
20​
TT
11​
2​
2​
2​
2​
2​
TT
10​
6​
8​
16​
20​
TT
9​
2​
2​
2​
TT
8​
4​
6​
16​
20​
TT
7​
2​
2​
2​
2​
TT
6​
2​
2​
TT
5​
1​
4​
8​
4​
12​
8​
3​
5​
2​
10​
1​
1​
36​
3​
10​
22​
106​
66​
5​
21​
FAIL SAFE
86​
7​
24​
52​
252​
157​
12​
50​


Below is the statistic return on craft for a fresh blueprint that average some 85% return after some click and the cost (very close to the real numbers i presented above)

stageitem(s)amtttReturnchiselbrick
1​
block chisel
1​
5,00
1​
0​
2​
marble brick
10​
10,00
0​
10​
3​
mortar
5​
20,20
4​
marblee block
4​
44,00
5​
marble cylinder
4​
96,00
6​
column small
2​
40,16
40,16​
7​
column large
2​
42,24
42,24​
8​
athena small
2​
30,08
30,08​
9​
column medium
2​
40,24
40,24​
10​
athena medium
2​
40,16
40,16​
11​
column huge
2​
56,16
56,16​
12​
fountain
2​
49,60
49,6​
Total TT Craft473,84
298,64​
40% success1.184,60
45% residues return- 213,23
sales at TT of useless craft- 298,64
Mu on items 10%118,46
Total production cost791,19

Now a simple calculation
total craft cost is 475 ped tt at 2.5x it is 1200 ped

you decide how many fail craft you need to ahve to receive an item cost of 2k :)

if you are scared to click pm me the PRICE OF YOUR FEAR and i will suffer in your place :)
 
ty for your detailed infos..very useful (y)
 
While this looks nice on paper, the moment you have a higher then average failrate on 1 or 2 of the later stages your overall cost of burned mu will go up much more. This is usually not a craft that you can massproduce unless you spent a really long time building a large stock especially on amazon legs and minotaur horns.
 
Can I just check, are you not counting any MU for the items you are gathering yourself? ( and could have sold at current mu).

1200 ped + MU(alot!) at current rates on the items consumed doesnt seem too far off. I have a spreadsheet ( which I wont add here as its your thread) that includes MU of the items consumed a long the way, plus a details description of the requirements at each stage. That being said when I done it some of the consumed MU was was higher and I lost just shy of 5k, I wouldnt be expecting to get anywhere near that back nowadays.
 
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Is this mission repeatable like the others?
 
You arent counting the Mu on the materials xDD Some of them have 2500-4000% lol I can do a table like that with perseus not counting any mu on materials and each click will be 50ped profit even with fails lol
 
Are all nice points
@ John Yes, thereis a EP4 efect on the last mission where the click is 20 ped totally agreed i got a nice bunch of curses to several gods while clicking colums, not for the 20 ped but for the amazon legs or cylinder burned

@Bonnie: yes i saw your spreadsheet, remember that i believe in Almighty algorithm so my craft at 80% success i DO believe that lead to 80% return (in the long run) and i examined your spreadsheet inthe thread you made, please post for reference or post a link to the bigger discussion)

@ Darlas: yes some items have some markup, but remember that 1000% despite being BIG in total term is 18 pec per item so it is 100 ped extra cost for amazon legs, rest of mu is not damaging avetage is very low

and yes i always state that this is THEORETICAL data on the item alone. i could elaborate with mu but it is floating and can not be useful in 3 months if drop rate changes. ther eis skill gain farming minotaurs (i amde 2 looter level with skills i got)

And Bonnie, please do not take it personal, i totally agree that in some point in history 5k might have been the cost
i myseld arrived too late to chimaeras and sodl sinews initially for 90 then down to 50 ped while first waves of loot were 250 ped. prices change .....

Most important and i did nto stress it enough.. there are not 700 Leg every day to farm, they drop in a very limited quantity and there are few to gather
so the cost as per my idea of time consumption and how friggin annoying is to gather materials is ok in the 2k to 3k per book

(My loss was included MU in the tables above... maybe i am just lucky :) ) (or i cannot make calculations :cool:
 
Msturlese said:
@Bonnie: yes i saw your spreadsheet, remember that i believe in Almighty algoeithm so my craft at 80% success i DO believe that lead to 80% return (in the long run) and i examined your spreadsheet inthe thread you made, please post for reference or post a link to the bigger discussion)

@ Darlas: yes some items have some markup, but remember that 1000% despite being BIG in total term is 18 pec per item so it is 100 ped extra cost for amazon legs, rest of mu is not damaging avetage is very low
Click to expand...
As you have asked for it , here is the link to the stages with Mark up included. The trouble with removing the markup from the calculations is its cumulative. It might not be much for the first stages but as it goes on its really the mark up that costs the most.

docs.google.com

Crafting My Future - Gorgons shade

Sheet1 Materials,number needed,cost tt ,cost with mu*,tt value of sucess,tt returnss on fails,final cost per item,number needed in mission stage,Cost of stage,*at time of creating tt,mu,cost refined quartz,0.02,400,0.08 minator horn,0.03,200,0.06 ref oken,0.03,150,0.45 Lesser elysia,0.08,110,0.0...
docs.google.com docs.google.com

( I thought it was clear to read, but happy to answer questions on it as apparently its clear in my head only :D )

I set mine at 66% but even at 80% when you add in the MU its a completely different picture.

Of course you can absolutely gather the materials yourself, I used to say this also about things dont cost x as you can just farm yourself. However I was told quite often that this is not economically accurate, as you could have also sold the items gathered at their MU.

Msturlese said:
And Bonnie, please do not take it personal, i totally agree that in some point in history 5k might have been the cost
i myseld arrived too late to chimaeras and sodl sinews initially for 90 then down to 50 ped while first waves of loot were 250 ped. prices change .....

Most important and i did nto stress it enough.. there are not 700 Leg every day to farm, they drop in a very limited quantity and there are few to gather
so the cost as per my idea of time consumption and how friggin annoying is to gather materials is ok in the 2k to 3k per book

(or i cannot make calculations :cool:
Click to expand...
I'm not taking it personally, I just think the MU would need to be added as its really the most important part of the cost. I won't get what mine cost me, but I also don't think its fair telling people the "theoretical" costs with no MU.

I agree that the time factor is also a consideration, but I haven't included any of that in my costs.

Msturlese said:
is ok in the 2k to 3k per book
Click to expand...
For full disclosure, someone asked me what I wanted for all 3 components, and I said I would accept 2.5k. Massive loss to me, and still a loss even with todays MU. I have countless PM's from people who decided not to buy them and to try it themselves, only to later tell me it cost them a fortune and they wish they had just bought. But I guess that is the point, for people to be able to make up their own choice on wether to do it or buy it. I think to be fair to those people making that choice the actual costs need to be included - including MU.
 
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RESERVED.
as i am less tired will use for a MU vs TT consideration
 
Don’t forget that you need an insane amount of lesser elysia which has markup. If I could go back in time to when I did this stupid mission chain I would tell myself to click lesser elysia for 12hrs straight to start it off. I found myself more frustrated at the fail rate on the later stages that forced me to go back and reclick the lower shit many times.
 
I'm not very sure of this at all, but I think I have lodged in memory that the crafting quantities for the stages were changed at some point, or possibly it was the required mats per click, to make the crafting chain cheaper. That may be a reason for considerable cost differences people have had as well. It will have to be for others to share any details if my vague memory is actually right...

I decided that the clincher for me would probably be the higher hunting stages of centaurs and whatever that I can't handle with my normal plodding along setup, so my crafting is stalled at one of the column levels (I forget which) for now.

Yes, Anon, mus change wildly over time, but lesser ely has always been reasonably low, hasn't it? (currently 110% or so?). Aren't minotaur horns in the mix for something? They have gone way down in mu. Mine just sit in storage and I don't bother the 'horn-dropper' mobs much.
 
jetsina said:
I'm not very sure of this at all, but I think I have lodged in memory that the crafting quantities for the stages were changed at some point, or possibly it was the required mats per click, to make the crafting chain cheaper. That may be a reason for considerable cost differences people have had as well. It will have to be for others to share any details if my vague memory is actually right...

I decided that the clincher for me would probably be the higher hunting stages of centaurs and whatever that I can't handle with my normal plodding along setup, so my crafting is stalled at one of the column levels (I forget which) for now.

Yes, Anon, mus change wildly over time, but lesser ely has always been reasonably low, hasn't it? (currently 110% or so?)
Click to expand...
10% adds up at the quantity required to click this mission. But game is dynamic right? Results may vary on success rate. I had 9x fails in a row on the luxurious fountain… that was what made my chain so expensive.
 
What was the requirement on the fountain stage - just 1 successful click? That makes for massive luck or bad luck!
 
@ Jetsina, Fountain is 2 Successful click

as you can read in OP total TT value of Phase 12 is 49 peddish so let's say 25 each item
expected result is 40% success so... STATISTICALLY (sorry Darlas :) )

5 click for 2 fountains = 125 PED click , 75 ped after TT of crafted item as a maximum (STATISTICAL) risk,
max 1 fail and 2 partial success, (statistically) = 50 ped risk for the craft

MU Waste is just on Elysia in case of Self craft (other items were crafted as preparation and relative MU and TTLoss already computed in previous stages)

Here kicks in success percent intended as EXPECTED RETURN that is on a 125 PED clickfest the REAL LOSS is just (fresh BP 82% RETURN = 22.50 (18% loss on TT)
THE REMAINING PART OF LOSS (Lamented in the previous post by Darlas is RECALLED by the game and statistically GIVEN BACK TO CRAFTER to obey to the laws
of teh "Almighty Algorithm"-

same calculation, with tables above is valid for stage 7...11 Hence the expected book cost comes from

This thread is starting to become a bit number crunching and theorycrafting intense, and is leading to "expose" too much ... i stop here.

as a side note, Amazon Legs are in AH rose to 3400 percent so each Block cost 2 PED instead of 1 material wise.
so please account 75 more pec each comapred to my calculations above, it will lead about to 200 more PED Cost compared to 2 month ago.
 
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Thanks for the info. It's getting a bit number crunchy-y, yes, and calculating average costs is possibly the most tricky calculation I make when mats have mu. I also used to go on statistical estimations for my required selling price mus if I was making enough clicks to be expecting close to average returns over time (such as on armatrix crafts), but I hadn't even seen the full requirements of the chain of this 12-stager - another reason for me to have not done it yet.
At least later chains for armour upgrades included the material requirements in advance - which I much applaud. Unfortunately my conclusion was then that the balancing was not in tune with the mus the markets 'wanted', and I was unlikely to do masses of gorgons anyway, and didn't need to be a spawner either.
Anyway, thanks for the efforts in this thread everyone. It's nice to try and stay reasonably informed about various pathways in EU :)
 
You can either get extremely lucky or extremely unlucky on cost. The only way to do a proper analysis of the true cost is to run a Monte Carlo simulation to figure out your best and worst case with a statistical average and std deviation. 5th grade math doesn’t really work for this kind of problem.
 
@jetsina sry late i had a busy RL week.
The pic below show in Blue the tt return for each click run, in orange the cumulative TT Return for the second book i crafted.
on top of the 230.9 TT loss i counted another 191.59 MU loss

Total TT (full success) is 1184 ped so it is very HARSH return on TT = 230.90 / 1184 = 19.50% of fail /partial success cost
on top there is another 192 ped or 10% of MU loss.

3rd book i made i experienced a total loss of 495 Ped so far, miss the last stage 12 that has an expected cost of max 200 ped so i think will loose most probably 700 PED
1st book i made i lost 786 ped so i can say that the sample is about 60 click run (i clicked much, got 200 mortar still in storage to skill BP and force a multiplier on "EP3.25" equivalent

Bein this a live game thread i sold 2 books at 1500 PED each and i hav a contract to deliver third at same price (most probably still active and a backlog for another 4 to be confirmed)
(because i prefer to walk the walk and dont talk the talk)

i hope this helps you to see if you are eager to take the risk.

index.php
 
I am so lost, are you selling books without factoring in the proper MU? *( that you either lost or could have gained if you sold what you looted) Buyers will be getting a bargain!

* at every stage and its cumulative effect, not just a generic "lets call it 10%".

I absolutely don't doubt your TT numbers, they seem fine. Its the MU and how it stacks in the chain that causes the issues. If its worth while Ill create a new sheet with current MU's and see what the change is.
 
let them come !
you have a point. i will charge 2k next month :)
 
Thanks for the follow-ups. I still see mus as being vital to what price I should be asking for crafting results. What is my outgoing cost for a round number of clicks and what do I expect back in tt from successes and partials? I value the mats back at the same mu as the input, obviously, leaving me with a cost I must make back from success mu. This is the tt expectation times x = residual cost, where x is the unknown mu that I then calculate.

Depending on whether the multis include a higher numbers of crafted mats or just give a better tt item instead of using up residue (if I have that on), my expectations there vary accordingly.

This way I have an mu for resulting mats that go into bps higher up the chain, but this chain is unusual because the final levels are going to affected so much by luck. As an image, I have no idea how many clicks (squares) will form the top of my pyramid when I finally get to stand on it, so I also have a poor idea of how much area that pyramid will take up at the bottom - my total cost area if you like.

It's an interesting thought experiment for me, though, but still not implemented fully even once in practise for the various reasons I have given.
 
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