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The Sky is Falling!

Entropia Dao said:
You know, I would do that. But would it just be simpler to sell those items now, and buy them back in November?

Also, I'm against IQ test, since the least smart people I know have high IQs (me included).

Third, I started playing back in 2005. I just sold out after 12 years. Now I realize I miss the game. Some form of Nostalgia I guess.
Most funnily, I sold out after making constant profit, because I realized that it started feeling like work.

Fourth, the point of a game (and I consider EU a game) is that you don't have to put your money where your mouth is.
I can make a claim like what the title says, and check out in autumn if I was right or wrong. The only thing that might hurt is my ego if I'm proven wrong.


But hey, if you don't think the market will follow RL economic conditions, please make your remarks. Maybe you are right and I learn something.
Or maybe you don't believe that anything is going to happen in RL, in which case, please explain. I really want to know your reasoning on that one.
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I think it's harsh to criticize the creation of the thread, it seems pertinent to talk about an ingame economic crash with such volatility irl. But, then you have to question why people don't want threads like this to be posted, could it be they see the clouds on the horizon but have bet the farm on Entropia. I have no dog in this hunt, as I play with money I am happy to completely lose.

We seem to have hit a high point for item prices, and the negatives now would panic me: additional items continually being added to the broker, 20 year anniversary, lockdown ending, rampant inflation irl hitting disposible income, recession resulting from interest rate hikes to quell inflation, an excalation of the Ukraine war. Surely there are more optimal times to sink 60k usd into a virtual item.
 
Been playing since 2005 and have seen these threads every single year. Usually wrong. But even a broken watch is right twice a day, so maybe you'll get lucky.
 
Xen said:
Been playing since 2005 and have seen these threads every single year. Usually wrong. But even a broken watch is right twice a day, so maybe you'll get lucky.
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I have also been playing since 2005 and I have seen a major collapse in prices starting in 2008 after the credit crisis.
The bubble bursted back then. Prices were mostly slahsed in half.

Note that nobody in this thread said or claimed enteropia will go under, a bit as to what you are implying now.
Sure, it's speculating what will happen to the Entropia market by the end of the year after the RL market will collapse (if it does at all).

So, you can play ignorant and thinking entropia is invulnarable to any outside market situations, but it's not.

How it will eventually play out, only time will tell.
 
wizz said:
I have also been playing since 2005 and I have seen a major collapse in prices starting in 2008 after the credit crisis.
The bubble bursted back then. Prices were mostly slahsed in half.

Note that nobody in this thread said or claimed enteropia will go under, a bit as to what you are implying now.
Sure, it's speculating what will happen to the Entropia market by the end of the year after the RL market will collapse (if it does at all).

So, you can play ignorant and thinking entropia is invulnarable to any outside market situations, but it's not.

How it will eventually play out, only time will tell.
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I didn't say it was invulnerable. However, this is not the same situation as 2008. Doesn't mean there won't be inflation and the markets may decline, but it's not the same as 2008.
 
It is all about ROI though. That is maybe what some are not understanding atm. Why would these item prices change if you can pay off their price in a year?
 
Xen said:
I didn't say it was invulnerable. However, this is not the same situation as 2008. Doesn't mean there won't be inflation and the markets may decline, but it's not the same as 2008.
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Well, thats a fact for sure.
And let's be honest, none of us will know exactly how this will play out.

I second the opinion that prices will fall.
But only time will tell ;)
 
ZippO said:
It is all about ROI though. That is maybe what some are not understanding atm. Why would these item prices change if you can pay off their price in a year?
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Well, why don't we understand?

What do you think will happen with ROI (read MU that can be made because that's the only real ROI you get) if half the player base stops playing. (just to name a possibility).
Who pays for the MU to grant you your ROI?

Nots saying it will happen, but just saying your ROI is based on the entire financial health of the game (and it's players)
 
Xen said:
Been playing since 2005 and have seen these threads every single year. Usually wrong. But even a broken watch is right twice a day, so maybe you'll get lucky.
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and they're always made by people who don't play the game
 
Rocket192 said:
and they're always made by people who don't play the game
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what's your problem?
Are you offended by the OP, or what?

Isn't this just a valid economic thread, discussing what might happen with the market, when looking at what's going on in the world now?
Why be a bitch about it and why not just give some valid input instead of this crap?

If people don't grind as an idiot like you, does that mean they don't have any stake in the game?
 
ZippO said:
It is all about ROI though. That is maybe what some are not understanding atm. Why would these item prices change if you can pay off their price in a year?
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Supply and demand. If we have a recession IRL then it's realistic to think less people will have 30-60k USD to spend on virtual items. Combined with more of these items being created at the broker. Combined with current owners of these items having IRL financial problems and needing to sell quickly. This could result in players selling below markup, then confidence will be hit for future buyers of the items, and we have a deflationary scenario. It may not happen, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility.
 
wizz said:
what's your problem?
Are you offended by the OP, or what?

Isn't this just a valid economic thread, discussing what might happen with the market, when looking at what's going on in the world now?
Why be a bitch about it and why not just give some valid input instead of this crap?

If people don't grind as an idiot like you, does that mean they don't have any stake in the game?
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OP's title is "the sky is falling"

not

"what would it take for the sky to fall? My opinions and analysis on entropia"


adversarial introductions are met with adversarial responses. if global financial systems collapse and dollar hegemony is lost then this game will have bigger problems than markup on gear. we already saw a good example of this in the post-covid wave. US created 42% more dollar supply, and coincidentally almost every item price in the game doubled. Related or not, OP has his logic backwards and doesn't play this game, and therefore should probably be put in his place when making poor arguments regarding the Entropia Economy to which he doesn't participate.

Money supply shrank in 2014-2016 and weapon prices were at all time highs. i think imk2 went for 300k+ and easter17 ring was sold to someone for over 200k iirc? it was ridiculous. If OP actually played the game he would know that monetary tightening doesn't really affect asset prices negatively in EU due to little supply and immense demand as others have mentioned already. So yes i'm offended by OP's laziness and general lack of research before fearmongering forums toward whatever bias he may have.

as Xen said, we get one of these threads like every 2-3 months, but a broken clock is right at least twice a day.

if forum rules prohibit sellout threads then they should also prohibit fearmongering threads.
 
All i see is big investors in Entropia bashing on poor ppl playing entropia about what may or may not happen due to irl problems with economy.
But have in mind we are all entitled to a comment about what the future might hold no matter what we belive. Enjoy the discussion.

Ill say again, welcome to the fall of prices... 2022-2023....
 
Rocket192 said:
OP's title is "the sky is falling"
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Did you even bother to read his post or did you just stop with the title?

"The reason for making this thread is not to say the sky is falling. It is a prelude to all the "sky is falling" threads that will be made in the second half of this year."

Again, what's wrong about starting a discussion like this?



Rocket192 said:
if forum rules prohibit sellout threads then they should also prohibit fearmongering threads.
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Jeez dude, seriously?
What are you afraid of?
This becoming a self fulfilling prophecy? And you losing al your value?
Or what? You just don't like the subject and should be banned for that?
 
At every few years prices will go down but not as much ppl think , and remember most of the 2.0 weapons are at players who have plenty of money IRL and even if will come a recesion they dont need to sell like the most of the sheeps .
 
wizz said:
Did you even bother to read his post or did you just stop with the title?

"The reason for making this thread is not to say the sky is falling. It is a prelude to all the "sky is falling" threads that will be made in the second half of this year."

Again, what's wrong about starting a discussion like this?




Jeez dude, seriously?
What are you afraid of?
This becoming a self fulfilling prophecy? And you losing al your value?
Or what? You just don't like the subject and should be banned for that?
Click to expand...
what value? have you not seen my own selling threads? and yes i've read OP's post a few times over before i posted because that's due dilligence. you don't play this game either so your opinion isn't going to hold the same weight as someone who does. but to address the first part, a prelude to sky is falling threads assumes there will be sky is falling threads which is the same thing as make a sky is falling thread. i don't know why everyone here needs to to such mental gymnastics these days. but i'll just leave it be, i have shooting to do.
 
rain drop said:
At every few years prices will go down but not as much ppl think , and remember most of the 2.0 weapons are at players who have plenty of money IRL and even if will come a recesion they dont need to sell like the most of the sheeps .
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yes, this I think as well.
Let's be honest, if you now pay 20.000$ for game weapon you're not on the lower end of the financial chain.
But, as I mentioned before, the ROI for those weapons is based on the playerbase as a whole.

If nobody buys your hunting loot anymore, how much worth is that rifle then?

Entropia is a eco system.
And as with every eco system, if one part falls away, the entire system could collapse, or at least end up in another equilibrium.
 
Dollar parity

To get back to the OP, a stronger dollar means that ped are also stronger versus the EURO and the pound.
While the EURO has been in decline over the last year, we need to take this in account while looking at MAs annual report, since a big part of the playerbase does deposit in EURO/Pound.

Now since the Krona went down too, there is no increase in fixed cost for MA and its 54 ppl staff.
Problem would obviously be if the Krona restores before the EURO does, and that won't be the case for the next 2 months.
While, seeing the current situation, EURO/Dollar will hit parity within the next half year; a recovering Krona could lead to MA needing to find ways to increase their revenue. This would already be on top of the expected reduction of player activity due to end of Corona.

I will make a bold statement and I predict the EURO/DOLLAR to hit 0.98$/1EURO before the EURO recovers. While in normal times this would be good for the export of European products, the high inflation and resource prices will eat most of this profit making the EU economy contract in the end.

While this is a nice bonus for anyone redrawing into EURO or pound, I don't think this will affect the redraw rate, beyond people downsizing for time and economical reasons. I suspect MA doesn't keep reserves in dollar but in Krona, which means that those redraws will be a bit more painful in the end, unless the Krona recovers.

What this means for players is that it will hurt EURO/Pound depositors, and favor EURO/Pound ubers that make a profit and redraw regularly.

It itself none of this means much and will not be noticeable for most players. Compared to the inflation the Eurozone is suffering this is minor, yet not trivial due to its amplifying effect on other economic disruptions that may or may not arise.
 
Entropia Dao said:
Dollar parity
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So, for Euro depositing players the game become a lot more expensive to play in the past year.
From 1,19$ for 1 eur to 1$ for 1 eur.

Good time to cash out now. Or maybe wait until you get 2 euro for each 10 ped? :unsure:

Time to sell your shit, while you still can. If it sells at all, because the market doesn't to keen in buying stuff now.
 
wizz said:
So, for Euro depositing players the game become a lot more expensive to play in the past year.
From 1,19$ for 1 eur to 1$ for 1 eur.

Good time to cash out now. Or maybe wait until you get 2 euro for each 10 ped? :unsure:

Time to sell your shit, while you still can. If it sells at all, because the market doesn't to keen in buying stuff now.
Click to expand...

It depends on when the conversion of Euro to Dollar happens. If I'm not mistaken the amount of dollars to local currency is calculated the day the redraw is send to the bank.
This is very important since I think that the EURO/DOLLAR will fall to 0.94 by the end of the year, and will only rise again in February.

About selling, I think that window is mostly passed. The Entropia market seems to be cooling and I will keep a close eye on the CLD returns to see how things are going. I personally believe loot is better if there is more activity and CLD returns are higher, and I do believe MA dynamically increases the "tax" to cover their costs.

For now, I think the best advice in game is wait how things are going.
The best opportunities might be outside of the game. If I still lived in Europe I might invest in Dollars to convert back to Euro at the end of winter when Euro hits its lowest point. It could be an easy 6-7% ROI in half a year. And if things go really bad for the Eurozone, it might save one's metaphorical ass.

These days I am more afraid that the sky is falling in real life economy, than ingame. Unlike 2008-2009 which was merely a correction, we are experiencing an economic war at the moment. I fear that the European leaders are not fully realizing this yet.
 
Entropia Dao said:
These days I am more afraid that the sky is falling in real life economy, than ingame. Unlike 2008-2009 which was merely a correction, we are experiencing an economic war at the moment. I fear that the European leaders are not fully realizing this yet.
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Since these leaders are identical with those who are at the helm of the creation of this crisis, it's a bit hard to wrap one's mind around the claim of "they're not fully realizing this" if one is trained to think logically.

Countries finding themselves at the wrong end of the weaponizing of financial systems dependent on US Dollar and SWIFT are banding together with the goal of ending this dependence. This is happening right now and largely ignored by mainstream media.

Both of these facts are relevant to Entropia because its economy is the opposite of isolated from these developments. The first sentence above leads to an assessment of the probability or certainty of a feared outcome. The second hints at a more complicated world after that. Let's hope the financial experts at the top of our little game bubble are better informed than our dear "leaders" (and the recent spending on virtue signalling only a decoy from smarter moves.) But then, hope is not a plan...

(edited for typo only)
 
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@San
I do not believe that many political leaders are fully aware of the economic warfare that is being held and this is the most scary part.
We will wake up to a very cold winter and although I don't know its impact on Entropia; I can imagine a lot of players rearranging their priorities.

I don't believe that any financial expert at the top can stop what is put in motion. Only action outside of the economic system will be able to change things. But before that happens things must hit rock bottom.

People who think this will be 2008 all over again will be in for a surprise. What is building now is something that will determine the 21st century for the most part. At least we'll have stories to tell our grandchildren.
 
With the Euro being at $0.96 and the Pound dropping that sharply I am a little concerned.
Seeing the election results in Italy and the challenges Europe is facing this winter, I am concerned about the future of the Euro.
Now, there have been worries about the Euro in the past and it proved to survive, but I am not so sure about the political landscape between countries this winter and spring.

If I was still living in Europe I wouldn't cash out, even I was planning to. Sure you get more Euro per ped, but It is uncertain how low the Euro will fall.
As ped are essentially investing in dollars, and many rich people are switching to dollar investments as we speak, it seems the safest option to keep ped ingame until the weather gets warmer. Or if you redraw, put the money in US stocks or US currency.

In a normal economic situation, a low currency improves exports, but due to the energy crisis, exports are slowing down regardless and at some point this will spiral down quickly if not controlled. If you need to buy fuel in a foreign currency, any little drop in currency value has a bigger and bigger impact.
This compounded to money fleeing to more stable markets. Normally this is counteracted by cheaper investment opportunities but there is nothing much to invest economy wise in Europe at the moment.

I know Entropia economy is slow to move on RL events, but it slowly seems to move in the direction of less deposits and spending with MU on things going down. While the smarter move (for people in the euro zone) would actually be to invest in game. Well, the smartest thing to do would be to invest in non EURO holdings, like buying crypto at a low swing, foreign stock and currencies.

Quo vadis Europa?
Quo vadis Entropia?
 
its about dollars related, less activity due to the end of lock down and real life inflation
and 30% is not so huge imo
call them lucky if its not more
 
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