TI ROI and other ramblings

[Shard-Angel]

SOLVED:

In brief: the age-old ROI maths that thinks your investment sum has disappeared untraceably and must grow back!
No it hasn't; it is still there as the value of the share and can be sold at whatever the market rate happens to be!

Ahhh... That's what I forgot! The original investment is still there! LOL. Thanks Jetsina!

Folks, please ignore my ramblings in part 1!

PS. PART 2 is still relevant for casual discering purposes!
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Hi folks. Am just trying to understand this offering for myself. I am not a maths wiz, and am just using basics and approximates to grasp what's being offered to us.

Feel free to point out if my maths is incorrect. Please don't flame me!!

[PART 1 - Recovery of Investment]
10 peds is cheap & cheerful! Any level player should be able to afford these.

Payout is a minimum of 1 pec per week (only if it generates that much).

So, if we manage to generate 1 pec per week - we'd need:
ONE share cost = 10 peds per share * 100 pecs/ped = 1000 pecs total invested per ONE share.

How long should we expect our ONE share to pay themselves off @1pec per week:

1000 pecs divided by 1pec/week = 1000 weeks to pay itself off.

= 1000 weeks / 52 weeks in a year = 19.23 years to recover our 10 ped initial investment.

And... were we to generate 2 pecs/week: 19.23 years / 2 = 9.62 years required.

Similarly:
@ 3 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 3 = 6.41 years
@ 4 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 4 = 4.81 years
@ 5 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 5 = 3.85 years
@ 6 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 6 = 3.21 years
@ 7 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 7 = 2.75 years
@ 8 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 8 = 2.40 years
@ 9 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 9 = 2.13 years
@10 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 10 = 1.92 years
...
@15 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 15 = 1.21 years
@20 pecs/week PER share = 19.23 / 20 = 0.96 years (ie less than 1 year)

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[PART 2 - Revenue generation]
(Note, at THIS stage, we're NOT taking into account 50/50 planet partner splits (or further PP splits) revenue for activity on New Treasure Island).
(We're just running basic numbers at this stage - for PP splits and more, see PART 3/4.)

We know that 800,000 shares are issued in total.

In order for EACH share to generate 1 pec, there would have to be atleast a revenue of 1 pec per share/per week.

= 800,000 pecs per week revenue required.
= 800,000 pecs / 100 = 8,000 PEDS per WEEK total required to payout 1 pec PER share from the TI zone.

This IS an achievable goal. We all know there are miners and hunters that can (and do) cycle that easily in a week.

However,... following the above scenario:
It would take 8,000 PEDs revenue generation solely on NEW TREASURE ISLANDS for to generate 1pec/week per share.
To generate 2 pecs/share - it'd take 8,000 * 2 = 16,000 PEDs income on NTI per week.
For 3 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 3 = 24,000 PEDs are needed.
For 4 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 4 = 32,000 PEDs are needed.
For 5 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 5 = 40,000 PEDs are needed.
For 6 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 6 = 48,000 PEDs are needed.
For 7 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 7 = 56,000 PEDs are needed.
For 8 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 8 = 64,000 PEDs are needed.
For 9 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 9 = 72,000 PEDs are needed.
For 10 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 10 = 80,000 PEDs are needed.

...

For 15 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 15 = 120,000 PEDs are needed.
For 20 pecs/week income, 8,000 * 20 = 160,000 PEDs are needed.

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This would now bring us to the:
- [PART 3 - Planetary Partner/MA/etc SHARE DIVISIONS which would easily double the time frames and PED burn rates required.]

- [PART 4 - Actual PED CYCLING RATES /taxes /misc considerations /retaining player population on TI, maintaining burn rates, etc(??)]


But... I'll let someone more mathmatically inclined compute those more murky numbers instead. Feel free to post them below in you are of the inquisitive mind!


It will, however, make a quick buck as a reseller toy, that's for sure.

What do you guys think?

 

[jupiajo]

So 1pec/week would equal around 5%/year. For the long time it was good ROI in financial world, depends how you view inflation this year
If we consider 97,5% is average return long time in normal activities like hunt/mining and shares are given 25% of that 2,5% taken by game, then we need 183000 daily turnover on TI. Someone check my math please.
Easy when it's a novelty, but there is long mayhem around the corner, we don't know if Dasps stay, and there is no hook in TI. There is no hidden cave to hunt for, no armor gorgon parts to improve.

 

[jetsina]

In brief: the age-old ROI maths that thinks your investment sum has disappeared untraceably and must grow back!
No it hasn't; it is still there as the value of the share and can be sold at whatever the market rate happens to be!

Actually, given the fees put on buying and selling, you stand to make more on the share price in a year's time than on payouts if you only hold them that long. And that's even with only fairly mild increases in the price in 2022.
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Edit: My calculator gives me a result of 182,8xx daily turnover required using your maths, so yes, but I assume less turnover is actually required because people will get less than 97.5% average returns.

 

[jupiajo]

Edit: My calculator gives me a result of 182,8xx daily turnover required using your maths, so yes, but I assume less turnover is actually required because people will get less than 97.5% average returns.

I stand weakly with total 97,5%, at least for all players, not one.
Some crafting would help, If only mindark constructed fun, nice and practical (!) centre for TI community, more teleports etc. maybe there is one i didnt see?
Edit: and small thing maybe but psychological: that mundane burgundy color, when I was approaching hangar where there are patches of old shader my mood insantly improved.

 

[Shard-Angel]

In brief: the age-old ROI maths that thinks your investment sum has disappeared untraceably and must grow back!
No it hasn't; it is still there as the value of the share and can be sold at whatever the market rate happens to be!

Ahhh... That's what I forgot! The investment is still there! LOL. Thanks Jetsina!

Please ignore my ramblings!

 

[mastermesh]

Ahhh... That's what I forgot! The investment is still there! LOL. Thanks Jetsina!

Please ignore my ramblings!

of course that's all dependent on what you sell it for. If you sell them for 50% of what initial cost was then...

 

[anonimity]

So 1pec/week would equal around 5%/year. For the long time it was good ROI in financial world, depends how you view inflation this year
If we consider 97,5% is average return long time in normal activities like hunt/mining and shares are given 25% of that 2,5% taken by game, then we need 183000 daily turnover on TI. Someone check my math please.
Easy when it's a novelty, but there is long mayhem around the corner, we don't know if Dasps stay, and there is no hook in TI. There is no hidden cave to hunt for, no armor gorgon parts to improve.

I don't think your math is entirely correct:

Total # of Deeds: 800,000
Payout: 0.01 PED
Revenue Needed: (800,000) * (0.01) = 8,000 PED
50/50 Player/MA split = 8,000 PED / 0.50 = 16,000 PED
Total Rev Needed for 0.01 Payout = 16,000 PED

Now to get 16,000 PED Revenue, we must make some assumptions on the % return on the land. Because we all use diff gear it is hard to say one number is hard and fast so rather than stick to 1% I created a table for 90% - 99% TT return:
16,000 / (100% - Player Ret %) = PED cycled required to get 0.01

 

[Msturlese]

kayla i think yo missed one point.. it is not 50%..... it is 50% of Planet Partner slice
(MA did not disclose how muhc is the percent of Planet partner on NTW zone so we missed a FUNDAMENTAL number for any calculation
i estimated 50% in another thread and 2% (based on old report on average 98% returns) to come as 1.600.000 ped ammo shot per week
or 228k per day.
THAT ON THE SOLE NTI....
it is 9.500 ped per hour on the 24 hours.... but we do know that some hours are a desert in game... so... let's say 15.000 ped/hour for active times
that require at least 20 people (Sorry EVE we dont shot 3k each player, average Joe shot 600/800 ped hour)
and that means every day of the year 20 people active on the zone to sustain 1 pec per week. and that lead to 52 pec that is 5% "Interest rate"
or 19 years duration.
to match CLD need instad to get 30..40 ppl active ont eh zone all year.
math.......

 

[Katie Chalmers]

kayla i think yo missed one point.. it is not 50%..... it is 50% of Planet Partner slice
(MA did not disclose how muhc is the percent of Planet partner on NTW zone so we missed a FUNDAMENTAL number for any calculation
i estimated 50% in another thread and 2% (based on old report on average 98% returns) to come as 1.600.000 ped ammo shot per week
or 228k per day.
THAT ON THE SOLE NTI....
it is 9.500 ped per hour on the 24 hours.... but we do know that some hours are a desert in game... so... let's say 15.000 ped/hour for active times
that require at least 20 people (Sorry EVE we dont shot 3k each player, average Joe shot 600/800 ped hour)
and that means every day of the year 20 people active on the zone to sustain 1 pec per week. and that lead to 52 pec that is 5% "Interest rate"
or 19 years duration.
to match CLD need instad to get 30..40 ppl active ont eh zone all year.
math.......

They don't need to match CLD return though. We all know they are unbeatable for ROI.
CP shares do half as good as CLD ROI% Wise, and they sell for 18 ped. The lower cost of entry into passive income is their advantage and they can get away with 5% returns or so and still be attractive.
NTI only have to perform similarly to CP shares to be successful, not CLDs

 

[Shard-Angel]

I don't think your math is entirely correct:

Total # of Deeds: 800,000
Payout: 0.01 PED
Revenue Needed: (800,000) * (0.01) = 8,000 PED
50/50 Player/MA split = 8,000 PED / 0.50 = 16,000 PED
Total Rev Needed for 0.01 Payout = 16,000 PED

Now to get 16,000 PED Revenue, we must make some assumptions on the % return on the land. Because we all use diff gear it is hard to say one number is hard and fast so rather than stick to 1% I created a table for 90% - 99% TT return:
16,000 / (100% - Player Ret %) = PED cycled required to get 0.01

Correct! However, I did mention in Part 2, that PP-splits were not taken into account at that stage. That was for Part 3/4 and folks who are cleverer than me to compute murky numbers,

 

[TheAlchemist]

I don't think your math is entirely correct:

Total # of Deeds: 800,000
Payout: 0.01 PED
Revenue Needed: (800,000) * (0.01) = 8,000 PED
50/50 Player/MA split = 8,000 PED / 0.50 = 16,000 PED
Total Rev Needed for 0.01 Payout = 16,000 PED

Now to get 16,000 PED Revenue, we must make some assumptions on the % return on the land. Because we all use diff gear it is hard to say one number is hard and fast so rather than stick to 1% I created a table for 90% - 99% TT return:
16,000 / (100% - Player Ret %) = PED cycled required to get 0.01

It is not 50/50 split

50% MA
25% CLD holders
12.5% planet partner Calypso
12.5% NTI deed holders

before NTI the split was
50% MA
25% PP calypso
25% CLD owners

Now they said that Shares will hold 50% of Planet Partner revenue of activity on treasure island.

See quote:

• Revenue is generated from activity on the 64 square kilometer area of New Treasure Island.
• Deed revenue represents 50% of Planet Calypso’s planet partner revenue for all activity on New Treasure Island.

For every ped "lost" on NTI 12.5pec will go to the share holders.
Fore each 64.000PED people lose on NTI, shares will get 1pec

As such your ped cycling table is off by factor 4.


This is interesting to note, since Ancient greece shares are 25% of the total and half the shares, so NTI will need for times the activity (ped lost by players) to generate the same dividend as AG shares.

Future will tell if this is a good investment compared to AG or CP shares.

We can already see a direct base line with CLD, and that is if people only hunt on TI still twice as much revenue will be allotted to them through CLD as is allotted to NTI share which means that the absolute minimum ratio is


Just wanted to clear this up. Because a lot of people think they will get 50% of the total revenue, while it says 50% of Planet Partner revenue is 25% to begin with.

 

[anonimity]

It is not 50/50 split

50% MA
25% CLD holders
12.5% planet partner Calypso
12.5% NTI deed holders

before NTI the split was
50% MA
25% PP calypso
25% CLD owners

Now they said that Shares will hold 50% of Planet Partner revenue of activity on treasure island.

See quote:


For every ped "lost" on NTI 12.5pec will go to the share holders.
Fore each 64.000PED people lose on NTI, shares will get 1pec

As such your ped cycling table is off by factor 4.


This is interesting to note, since Ancient greece shares are 25% of the total and half the shares, so NTI will need for times the activity (ped lost by players) to generate the same dividend as AG shares.

Future will tell if this is a good investment compared to AG or CP shares.

We can already see a direct base line with CLD, and that is if people only hunt on TI still twice as much revenue will be allotted to them through CLD as is allotted to NTI share which means that the absolute minimum ratio is


Just wanted to clear this up. Because a lot of people think they will get 50% of the total revenue, while it says 50% of Planet Partner revenue is 25% to begin with.

Thanks for the extra perspective and info. I didn't previously take into account the 25/25 split of CLD and PP revenue so I have adjusted my model to account for the 50/25/25 split which is represented in the table below. It makes the total turnover even more to generate 0.01 revenue per Deed.