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  1. #1
    Dominant kingofaces's Avatar
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    Other players mining before you affects your hit rate

    We just wrapped up the testing described here. Thanks to Leroy Casper Hunter and Leeloo Leeloo Mountain for helping out. There have been competing ideas out there on how other miners affect your hit rate, so I figured we'd try to some formal science on it.

    To sum it up, this was designed like I would any scientific experiment at work to give this data a bit more rigor to have actual testable data. The three of us each dropped en/ore at the exact same coordinates with about a 5 minute buffer between us. Leeloo went first, then Casper, then myself. If someone caught up to the person ahead of them, we typically gave at least a minute or two buffer if not closer to 5 minutes. These were all done with F-101's with no attachments, etc. so everything was standardized for depth, search radius, etc. There were 30 drops for each type, or 60 total drops per person.

    Hit rate

    The first miner had 26.7% HR, second was 6.7%, and third was 5.0%:



    As you increase the number of miners (primarily having more than one miner dropping on recently mined areas), hit rate significantly decreases. For the formal research statistics end of things, I used a logistic regression with hit rate as a response, and miner number as the independent variable. One way to look the above graph is if the confidence intervals overlap, you cannot say those average hit rates are significantly different (i.e., they are only numerically different due to randomness). The confidence intervals basically mean that if you repeated this study 100s of times or had a much higher sample size (maybe 10k PED worth), we can say with 95% confidence that the "true average" falls within those limits without needing to actually do that much sampling.

    Likewise, the logistic regression line had a negative slope (-1.2), and was also statistically significant p = 0.000982, also confirming that as you add more miners, hit rate goes down. P-values under 0.05 are generally the threshold for significance, so there's next to no question that we ruled out randomness in this experiment and the differences we saw are due to the number of miners.

    Hit rate however, was not zero for the 2nd or 3rd miners. Some claims could have been missed by the previous person because they found a claim closer where they dropped even though both were within their search radius. Another reason is claims "respawning". As the third person in the chain, I did have one claim appear right next to me and not on the edge of the radius as you'd expect with the former example.

    TT returns

    I also analyzed the TT returns from these runs since it was possible claim size might be different depending on your hit rate. This gets a little trickier to analyze because that data doesn't fit a normal distribution and are instead bimodal (a bunch of zeros for the NRFs, and another peak for actual claims). I won't get into the nuts and bolts of that one, but in order from miner 1 to 3's total TT: Leeloo 33.48, Casper 12.42, and myself 16.55 PED. There would be issues trying to graph that up due to the non-normal data, but I analyzed the total PEC with a zero-inflated poisson regression to take care of those. The short of it was that Leeloo's average TT per drop was significantly higher than Casper (p = 0.04155) or myself (p = 0.00342). Casper's and my TT per drop were not significantly different (p = 0.1988).

    Conclusions

    Essentially, TT returns declined with declining hit rate as more than one person mined an area. This go a good ways towards settling the question of whether other miners affect your hit rate or TT.

    There are a few followups mentioned in previous threads now that we found there is a difference due to other miners:

    1. Does the first miner only deplete claims at the depth they hit at, or at any depth within the radius (i.e., due claims exist in a disc, or cylinder)? This could be done in quick succession with at least two people at the same coordinates again. It would need to have enough range in depth treatments to not overlap much, so maybe like 200, 500, and 800m.

    2. What is the rough respawn rate? This could be done by repeating this again, but instead of 5 minute intervals, spread it out by increasing wait time of 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, etc. for each person to see when it's "safe" to mine the area again.

    3. Do others in the same zone affect your mining if you don't overlap drops? No need for staggering here again, just do 30+ drops in the same general vicinity and compare HR again.


    I would like to take another weekend to test either 1 or 2 now that we have this wrapped up. I'm thinking March 9, but I'll see what people think about what we have so far before setting up the next round of testing.
    Last edited by kingofaces; 02-24-2019 at 15:17. Reason: update on confidence intervals

  2. #2
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    Nice bit of testing. I have always had a feeling that was the case.
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  3. #3
    Prowler
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    Thank you very much King hope we get plenty more testing to do !!!

    I'll link this thread also to my mining guide

    Still some questions

    What if different finders (read different depths)

    Do deeper finders give the same results

    Longer waiting times (I mostly work with 2 hour timers)

    Different spawn times for different ores/enmatter?

    As MA stated that skills do matter, we might do the same tests with higher (deeper) finders to compare, cause with that F-101 my HR was way of lol Maybe its because it's the F-101 ...
    Last edited by LeelooM; 02-24-2019 at 07:14.
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  4. #4
    Stalker messi91's Avatar
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    Was that a 16.55 PED or 165500 ped test because its late and I can't read properly.
    I hope its not the first case.I've been educated that a test should be conducted for a period of at least 6 months + with a very large sample of ped spent so you can remove any variation possible.
    Anyway good luck

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by messi91 View Post
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    Was that a 16.55 PED or 165500 ped test because its late and I can't read properly.
    I hope its not the first case.I've been educated that a test should be conducted for a period of at least 6 months + with a very large sample of ped spent so you can remove any variation possible.
    Anyway good luck
    there are different kinds of tests

    like when you wanne see if you can find stuff on the same coordinates with autodropping without moving and you see that after the first hit the next 30 drops are all NRF then you dont need to do this test for 2 weeks and drop a million times. you can see the result after 2 minutes with a certain degree of certainty thats upwards of 95%.

    if you wanne test the refresh rate you would have to do this for maybe few hours, depending on when you start getting hits again.

  6. #6
    interestingly the second and third miner have roughly a fourth of the hitrate but have about half of the TT

    you could also test this with doing ore once and enmatter once, with a few days inbetween. i assume the higher TT in regards to hitrate is due to more ore hits. could be luck but could also be a statistically significant difference

  7. #7
    Slayer GoNi's Avatar
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    The sample looks a little small.

    Repeat it 100 times, if the numbers are still the same I buy it.

  8. #8
    Prowler
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoNi View Post
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    The sample looks a little small.

    Repeat it 100 times, if the numbers are still the same I buy it.
    I'm pretty sure even if we did this 1K times, results would be the same, but I'm willing to go for it.

    EDIT : that's also the reason why I almost never mine during weekends
    Last edited by LeelooM; 02-24-2019 at 06:41.
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  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeelooM View Post
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    Thank you very much King hope we get plenty more testing to do !!!

    I'll link this thread also to my mining guide

    Still some questions

    What if different finders (read different depths)

    Do deeper finders give the same results

    Longer waiting times (I mostly work with 2 hour timers)

    Different spawn times for different ores/enmatter?

    As MA stated that skills do matter, we might do the same tests with higher (deeper) finders to compare, cause with that F-101 my HR was way of lol Maybe its because it's the F-101 ...
    Ty for doing this testing and surply the data. Yes its only small sample and there is other variables to consider. I would help, but on diffrent planet. I had some say its no point minging this area i alreay done. I did mine it and found gold and run was ok. The diffrence was his 105 522m depth and my milf 900m depth. Also i dont know if skill level has factor or just what tool you can use. Are all 3 of you simlier level?

  10. #10
    Dominant Pretto Loco's Avatar
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    As a hypothesis test I buy it 100%. The server/s keeps track of areas. But is this unique to mining or also true for hunting in same area or even crafting? I wonder how large the respawn areas are, if set to predetermined area sizes or dynamically determined. Is the return also a combo of 1. Local activity in the area + 2. Global activity on the planet? But I guess its not so easy to just say "More miners in an area = Less finds" if more acitivity in an area also means that players spend more in that area. Does that also mean that our spending in an area also determines how much there is to find there? Or is the entire spending on a planet spread out evenly on that said planet or even universe wide?

    I have experienced fantastic hit rates and back to back globals and multis in more or less abandonded areas.

    Maybe one way of do some further testing is to get in contact with some land owners. Don't they have access to stats regarding mining activity in their areas? That way you could correlate activity vs returns maybe.

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