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Thread: Seasonal rings

  1. #21
    Old Alpha Detritus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MsPudding View Post
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    I guess I disagree with the initial sentiment that the seasonal ring distribution system is "broken". I would just caution anyone opening boxes to know that their chances of looting a seasonal ring are very slim, and to not expect to get one after opening a certain amount.

    This is the key... people don't understand how probability works.

    If you flip a coin 1000 times and it's heads 1000 times in a row, the fallacy is to think "well fucks sake, the next toss has to be tails since the last 1000 were heads"... but reality is the 1001 toss is still a 50/50 chance.


    Doesn't matter how many boxes you open, probability doesn't change with each.

  2. #22
    Old Alpha theProphet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Detritus View Post
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    Doesn't matter how many boxes you open, probability doesn't change with each.
    that's how it should be. when only a few handful seasonal rings drop out of all boxes opened by all avatars, chances to loot one are close to zero, as most of us know, because they never got any at all.

    when chances are close to zero, it's not like throwing a coin with 2 sides. the probability to loot 2 or even 3 is in theory very very unlikely, while in EU it's standard as it seems. (happens every season)
    Free from desire, you realize the mystery. Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations. Yet mystery and manifestations
    arise from the same source. This source is called darkness. Darkness within darkness. The gateway to all understanding. 道德經 老子
    Eyes closed -.-

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by theProphet View Post
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    ... the probability to loot 2 or even 3 is in theory very very unlikely, while in EU it's standard as it seems. (happens every season)
    This kind of RNG distribution is not exclusive to EU. Its found anywhere there's RNG distribution, it's very normal. As weird as it sounds, it's very likely you'll see "unlikely" results. But the key here is changing the mindset that what you believe to be "unlikely", really isn't abnormal at all, if that makes any sense.

    All systems are working as intended, and no avatar has been given an advantage from MA over another when cracking boxes.

  4. #24
    Distribution isn't random. Same as anything else, you need to fullfill certain criteria
    to get the wanted item. I doubt it's impossible for certain players, its just the value
    for probabilty to get it that is very low for some... but the chance is there.

  5. #25
    Elite forgo's Avatar
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    Real players don't need to buy boxes, we sell them.

    I haven't bought keys in a couple years to be honest, the system has bias, and people are just now noticing.

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  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Jack View Post
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    Upon careful analysis there seems to be a strong correlation between players who open tens of thousands of strongboxes, and players who loot multiple rings. Not enough evidence yet to determine causation, but correlation is definitely there.
    Said the guy who used to gloat he had the magic recipe for looting the christmas rings. Remember that? I do.

  7. #27
    Marauder Angel O2 Mercer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by atomicstorm View Post
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    Said the guy who used to gloat he had the magic recipe for looting the christmas rings. Remember that? I do.
    oh, I member !

  8. #28
    Old Alpha theProphet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angel O2 Mercer View Post
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    oh, I member !
    brain is pain i swear
    Free from desire, you realize the mystery. Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations. Yet mystery and manifestations
    arise from the same source. This source is called darkness. Darkness within darkness. The gateway to all understanding. 道德經 老子
    Eyes closed -.-

  9. #29
    Elite Captain Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by atomicstorm View Post
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    Said the guy who used to gloat he had the magic recipe for looting the christmas rings. Remember that? I do.
    Guilty as charged. But to be fair, I did attempt to exonerate myself by sharing the magic recipe this year.

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