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Thread: Seasonal rings

  1. #11
    Old Alpha theProphet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hego Damask View Post
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    its not 100% accurate
    have you ever read about the law of large numbers? it doesn't need to be accurate, over time everything should even out, right? let's throw some physical coins for fun, instead of spending them on amazon
    Free from desire, you realize the mystery. Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations. Yet mystery and manifestations
    arise from the same source. This source is called darkness. Darkness within darkness. The gateway to all understanding. 道德經 老子
    Eyes closed -.-

  2. #12
    Prowler MarcusLucius's Avatar
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    its pure statistics nothing else
    whys a guy that loots 2x 2k+ loot on one day?
    because statistically it CAN happen.
    Quote Originally Posted by LeWolf86 View Post
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    This game is similar to anal sex... if you try to force it... no one will be happy...Let it come naturally...

  3. #13
    some are just lucky and others not simple as that thinking even to delete my avatar to get a lucky one

  4. #14
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    I guess I disagree with the initial sentiment that the seasonal ring distribution system is "broken". I would just caution anyone opening boxes to know that their chances of looting a seasonal ring are very slim, and to not expect to get one after opening a certain amount.

    My best guess is that seasonal rings are looted every 1:10,000 boxes. But, this by no means indicates you'd loot one after 10,000.

    As such, I would expect to see people at the extremes. Results should yield players that get a ring in their first 100 boxes, and again, players that don't get a seasonal ring even after 100,000 boxes. There's simply no guarantee, which further confirms the presence of an RNG system.

    In practice, RNG distribution systems almost never provide loot equally to those participating. You can google and see all the people that have won multiple million dollar jackpots, and then hear countless stories of people that never win, even though they may have purchased more tickets than the winners. "Luck", or whatever you want to call it, can manifest weird "patterns", whether or not there are patterns at all.

    One of the things human brains do so well is recognize patterns. We do it so well that we even "create" patterns, even when none exist.

    Ever have a friend that you go gambling with that is certain they've cracked the code? That friend will tell you that they know how to bet to win more often than 50%, they've somehow figured it all out. One of the problems with recognizing patterns so easily and effortlessly, is that it lends itself to the creation of superstition, and many times we find ourselves attributing causation to correlation, when it doesn't exist. That's when you hear hair brained ideas and wild explanations about why something occurred, and people convince themselves they can recreate the results.

    A lot of what I'm saying rests on the assumption that the ring distribution system really does have that RNG factor. Which I do believe. I don't think anyones loot switch is turned on or off by MindArk when cracking boxes. I believe we all get an equal shot at the seasonal rings, some just are luckier then others. And of course, it's been said, but taking more shots definitely increased your chances, but by no means guaranteed results.

    tl:dr
    What I'm trying to say is that I think the current system is working as intended. You're going to see some people appearing to get all the loot, while others appear to never get the loot, this is how RNG systems typically play out. I don't believe the current ring system needs changed, as I don't believe anyone is a "favorite" or that MindArk has enhanced certain peoples' chances over others. The odds of looting a seasonal ring are very low, but they're low for everyone cracking boxes. I think it's kind of cool that a new player can start EU and snag a seasonal ring their first 100 boxes. Although I can understand why some get frustrated seeing someone new get a ring with very few boxes opened, that's what creates the allure in the first place.

  5. #15
    Old Alpha theProphet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MsPudding View Post
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    tl:dr
    .
    Free from desire, you realize the mystery. Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations. Yet mystery and manifestations
    arise from the same source. This source is called darkness. Darkness within darkness. The gateway to all understanding. 道德經 老子
    Eyes closed -.-

  6. #16
    Elite Haruto Rat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theProphet View Post
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    Just wondering again, out of 21 seasonal rings, 3 people were able to loot 2 pieces (again).

    Why in hell does Mindark think that this isn't broken and working exactly as supposed?
    This is roughly consistent, for example, with the theoretical distribution that would result from 50 agents doing 500 attempts each at a 1:1000 success probability:



    (30 get nothing, 15 get one each, 4 get two each, and 1 gets three - 26 total (should be 25 but rounding is a bitch))

    Colloquially, a picture like this is called "few big whales".
    Last edited by Haruto Rat; 11-27-2019 at 07:54. Reason: fixed total
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  7. #17
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    Waves... all loot, including in boxes are sitting on waves. Mindark has done some changes to the wave calculations, but they are all still waves... so if you hit it, you ride the wave like a surfer dude... yes, to some, that may be considered broken.

  8. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by theProphet View Post
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    PS: i looted 7 rings totally, and 1 xmas ring out of it.
    15000 boxes here, best was aug athenic and total rings is 6. lol. Why didn't I make this thread? :P

  9. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slyk View Post
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    Why didn't I make this thread? :P
    Because 2 balls in your pants prevent you from crying in public.

  10. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slyk View Post
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    15000 boxes here, best was aug athenic and total rings is 6. lol. Why didn't I make this thread? :P
    Over 30k boxes opened atlest and ares improved best ring. got couple of those so doesnt feel that bad.

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