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  1. #1

    Captain Jack's Expression of The Theory of Volatility and Multiplier Caps in 2020

    This was originally written as a response to a discussion thread. It then occurred to me that the information contained here may not be as widely understood by the public, and therefor I created this as a stand-alone thread to facilitate public access.

    This thread describes the theory of loot volatility in hunting and what are popularly referred to as "HoF caps" or "multiplier caps" on certain mobs.

    To illustrate my point I will use a few variables.

    A = The average cost to kill a mob.
    B = The average value of all loot instances.
    C = The average value of each individual loot instance after excluding the top 10% of individual loot instances.
    D = The "multiplier", or the loot value of an individual loot instance divided by the average cost to kill.

    High volatility mobs: Most mobs ingame fall into this category.
    A significant disparity exists between the B value and the C value. This is because these mobs have a higher limit on their D value than low volatility mobs, and thus the higher multipliers are required to bridge the gap between B and C values.
    In summary: Higher loot volatility in exchange for higher potential multipliers.

    Theoretical example:
    C / A = 80% TT return
    B / A = 95% return
    C / B disparity = 15%

    Low volatility mobs: These are generally few and far between, most often found in the highest HP mobs ingame (Mulcibers included).
    A notably lower disparity exists between B and C, because they have a lower limit on their D value than high volatility mobs. Consequently loot on most hunts is far more stable, but the higher multipliers are far less frequent or not possible.
    In summary: Lower loot volatility in exchange for lower potential multipliers.

    Theoretical example:
    C / A = 90% TT return
    B / A = 95% TT return
    C / B disparity: 5%

    In both theoretical examples the mobs yield 95% return in the long term, but high volatility mobs require far more far more loot instances to achieve similar results to those of a low volatility mob.

    Note 1: The % returns listed above are purely theoretical and used only to provide a clear illustration of the concept being conveyed.

    Note 2: This thread contains theoretical information only which has been evidenced by the anecdotal observation of myself and other experienced hunters. It does not, however, contain empirically tested information.

    Note 3: This thread was written in April 2020 and the old saying "loot is dynamic" is as true as it ever was before. We know that MindArk can (and does) make adjustments to the loot mechanisms and therefor this information has a shelf life of unknown duration.

  2. #2
    You're introducing 'anecdotal' variables that aren't based on anything to explain what volatility is.
    Thanks, I guess?
    Would you suggest going for the bigger or smaller D value?

  3. #3
    Elite Bones's Avatar
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    Since this thread is "anecdotal" based , are their any observances that show a loot table variance , or time limit to the sweet spot in the loot cycle ?

    Though what i am asking might be nonsense.
    Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.

    Eleanor Roosevelt
    11 October 1884 7 November 1962

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Taldur View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    You're introducing 'anecdotal' variables that aren't based on anything to explain what volatility is.
    Thanks, I guess?
    Would you suggest going for the bigger or smaller D value?
    I am explaining a concept which is periodically referred to by hunters who have experienced it. At present time it appears to be mostly limited to very high cost to kill mobs, which are inherently restricted to less than 1% of the player base.

    My statement that the theory is based on anecdotal evidence is simply for the sake of transparency.
    For the purposes of this thread "casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis" is the intended definition of anecdotal evidence. I don't have a spreadsheet detailing each and every loot instance, as the creation of such a spreadsheet would be time intensive and relatively unnecessary.
    What I do track, however, is a running total of my TT expenditure and TT returns.

    Whether to pursue higher or lower D value depends on your goals. Someone looking for the rush of a HoF would be better suited to pursuing a higher D value, whereas someone looking for loot stability would be better of pursuing a lower D value. Either way the long term results are the same in the TT.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bones View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Since this thread is "anecdotal" based , are their any observances that show a loot table variance , or time limit to the sweet spot in the loot cycle ?

    Though what i am asking might be nonsense.
    In short; yes, but that is not what I am covering in this thread.

  5. #5
    Prowler theProphet's Avatar
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    there is no loot volatility. we call it the dynamic statics...
    Free from desire, you realize the mystery. Caught in desire, you see only the manifestations. Yet mystery and manifestations
    arise from the same source. This source is called darkness. Darkness within darkness. The gateway to all understanding. 道德經 老子
    Eyes closed -.-

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