Have started mining 15 years ago, then had a 7 years break, and returned year ago.
End of a short introduction.
Since april 2019 I have around 90% tt return (my turnover around 100-150k a month), which is a bit odd, if to compare with old good times. It seems previous version 10 years ago, was a bit more random and fair. Now I can spend anything with any amps and get 90% return. If I fell to 85% (due to extensive peds wasting on FOma) MA gives me tower just enough to bring back statistics.
I read all pages and there are some opinions I strongly disagree.
1) Hit Rate some of you bragging is a conditional random. I believe it has nothing to do with your style, premined location and your skills/tools.
- firstly It depends on how much of location resources Balancer (a daemon running on server) have available for the game at current time to anyone by request. it's not very personal at this stage (except depth checking). If it gave away today, lets say 5k of putty already (from all locations/planets!!!), you will not find it with any depth/tool/skills/luck. This is what you call "effect of premined location" more below.
- secondly (personal stage) it depends on how much MA think it owes you. Did you had a situation you woke up, turn on EU drop one probe and get tower? It's not a luck. It's how much MA think it owes you depending on your previous spends.
OK, Tower is a very strong example.
Lets say you started to mine and dropped first probe (amped 2 peds). Ma knows what you've spent, and randomly gives you claim of 1.8 peds, or gives you 1 and postpones 0.8, or postpones whole 1.8 ped. It's random until some tactical threshold. You drop next - same checking happens. And again.
When you reach some minus threshold (if you do!), which can be dynamic/random but should not be too big ( As MA dont want you to close the game and never return ) - you get glob/hof/ATH. Especially if server's Balancer think that resource you asking (by location and your tools/skills set) can be given to the game. Basically every probe drop is a request you do. Sometimes balancer have available 50k of caldo, and you have big multipler (amp) - you get ATH (in case MA owes you what much during last years cuts).
You will not get high HR if MA does not owes you anything. What's why initial HR is always low, and after you spend some you see that MA is urgently trying to give you all you spent minus 10% tax. That's why HR in the middle/end session is always high. Especially last probes from inventory. That's why we often get a big kaboom on last probe we drop. Ma scares that it owes you 300 ped from this mining session, and it's last probe, and you may never return.
This is why your theories about what to do with a low HR (to change location or continue) have no sense. You will get your 90% anyway either you continue or change loc. The only difference is what set of resources you get. As locations have different sets.
2) Effect of premined location. As I said your mining return have nothing to do with some one just run over this location.
My Statement: Balancer on server fulfil requests (dropped probes) due to it's own data. If 10 miners dag up 5k putty already today (or hell knows what cycles it uses, i'd stick to a day) on all locations/planets (i believe it's global) you will not get any/many claims with it. You can use any depths/tools you just wont find it. It's just a part of balancing (rare) ore. MA don't want you people dag up tonnes of it and crash the economy. On Cali - they even switched to waves to limit rares give aways.
This explains why you can drop a probe on top of someones claim and still get some resources. If balancer think it can give away 1k more putty/lyst/caldo today (and your depth/skills/tools set is satisfy) - you will get it no matter how hard prebombed this location.
To summ up. You will not get more than 90% tt return in current system (on long run). MA tracks every ped you spent in years. Otherwise they would go bankrupt long ago.
I know some people claim they get 100%+ return on long run (months), but I believe it's just a mistaken calculations or some bug related to avatar.
PS if you believe you have low return on a long run, and MA owes you ATH, and your calculations are correct - eventually you'll get it. May take years but once you'll appear in a location and time where/when balancer have available 50k-100k of lyst - you get it. This happens all the time. If crafters have burned 50k of lyst this night for example.
Sorry English is not my first
It also too late, maybe write some more later.