Non-hunter oriented VU

Alukat123: "Also a friend of mine is still trying to get his hands on a wetski BP, i have a BP i could get it with, but it's only QR1 atm, which means tt-return will most likely be sub 70% and at those costs it's just not worth trying to go for the wetski BP. I certainly would burn a lot of hunted materials there if i'd go for it. "

This strikes me as a VERY interesting quote.

you can have another interesting one from yesterday:
Someone asked me if i had a certain item, i didn't, but i had a L BP for it and i could have gotten the materials (110-160% MU) for it. But i decided against trying to make one, because the 250-350% MU the item has wasn't worth the risk (getting 66% TT-return and possibly no successes at all on a small amount of clicks, <15 attempts).
 
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you can have another interesting one from yesterday:
Someone asked me if i had a certain item, i didn't, but i had a L BP for it and i could have gotten the materials (110-160% MU) for it. But i decided against trying to make one, because the 250-350% MU the item has wasn't worth the risk (getting 66% TT-return and eventually no successes at all on a small amount of clicks, <15 attempts).

Yes. There is often a slight (general) fallacy made about risks, however, and in British English v US English I think you mean possibly no successes and not eventually (for 1 run). The stronger Germanic influence shows through in US English there...

There are situations where the risk:benefit analysis would be positive in the long run, but unlikely to be in the short-term. If you regularly take risks, then you should take the ones that are on your side overall, even if short runs would be negative usually. (An exception is where the overall results have to include something like the jackpot win with very small odds of it happening, so that the overall result on even a long run is likely to be negative - in EU the question is what level multi would you need - and why so many people talk of the bankroll you need).

If in your case you can generally spend your time profiting on rarer clicks anyway, you might indeed decide the risk isn't worth it comparatively. That doesn't mean it would also not be a risk worth taking for someone else with nothing 'better' to do.
One of the balancing problems is that good players then under-utilise their equipment/bp (whatever) potential because they have better potentials available and can only do one thing at a time, while lesser players cannot find anything that leverages them into plus territory. OR, the better-skilled players (or better qr, for example), squeeze prices so they are still in profit, but lower players aren't. It's tricky, but thank you for your further example, yes.
 
benefit analysis would be positive in the long run

with an item that sells maybe 20-30 times a year and where BPs have <100 clicks, there simply is no long run, because of this the "it's gonna be positive in the long run" is just useless/worthless...

For L BPs & rather slow selling items (1 or less per week) the short run is what's important and if the short run is bad, then those crafts simply die.

corrected the possibly and eventually thing, thanks for pointing it out.
 
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Alright i intended this to be a discussion about mining/crafting content and not a pissing contest/whine thread over why crafting isn't a guaranteed profit.


Mods please close this.
 
Alright i intended this to be a discussion about mining/crafting content and not a pissing contest/whine thread over why crafting isn't a guaranteed profit.

that's not what it is for me, just stating why a lot of stuff isn't being crafted, despite there being demand...
 
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Alright i intended this to be a discussion about mining/crafting content and not a pissing contest/whine thread over why crafting isn't a guaranteed profit.


Mods please close this.

I try to get this before it does close. Yes, I do feel mining, and many areas are overlooked a lot. I guess hunting is so much of what this game is about. Wh have had mining boxes that have new stuff in including new finders. Then you don't need a high level for them. What type of finder could they produce for higher levels? Once you reach L50 its not much different to L100. If they gave the advantage to higher levels who could use new finders to find more rare items and less filler. then again filler stuff has better mu than rare stuff atm.
 
with an item that sells maybe 20-30 times a year and where BPs have <100 clicks, there simply is no long run, because of this the "it's gonna be positive in the long run" is just useless/worthless...

Ah, you see that is exactly the point; you don't need every horse to win to make a profit if the odds are right on each horse you choose. As long as some of them win, then you profit, but you don't know which will do so in advance. It's about the gains:risk, so if you have several sets of bps, none of which give enough of a 'run' on their own, the set should still be ok as long as you choose the right bps to belong to the set according to the calculations. (unless you believe certain bps have separate pools, or something like that that is not purely about probabilities...) edit: possibly having mats left over might be a pain, that could be an issue, ok.

Sorry to OP that you feel the thread is off course - for me it is indeed about the current economics of crafting and why things could be improved in a vu. But it is also about understanding what actually happens with bps etc. AND risks or not that players wish to take. MA need to consider this carfeully in any crafting change vu. They have made cautious changes in the past which I like (on success rates v. volatility for example), so I feel fine mentioning this sort of thing here.
 
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Ah, you see that is exactly the point; you don't need every horse to win to make a profit if the odds are right on each horse you choose. As long as some of them win, then you profit, but you don't know which will do so in advance. It's about the gains:risk, so if you have several sets of bps, none of which give enough of a 'run' on their own, the set should still be ok as long as you choose the right bps to belong to the set according to the calculations. (unless you believe certain bps have separate pools, or something like that that is not purely about probabilities...) edit: possibly having mats left over might be a pain, that could be an issue, ok.

The problem is that everything is high risk atm.

I tried making:
j579cui7.png


for a friend and i did regret trying to make some... it was a major loss, despite having sold the table for 250%... I think was about 60-80 PED of materials (with MU) for 20 PED item (with MU) to sell..
with results like that you think twice about trying to craft certain stuff...
 
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The problem is that everything is high risk atm.

with results like that you think twice about trying to craft certain stuff...

Yes, I've noticed risks seem to be getting higher and it is more likely each risk will not pay off and that even trying to assess the values involved becomes harder and time-consuming due to low volumes.
I've wondered about whether people will be gathering up stackable bps now as one bp until maybe worth a run. That is a change MA have made more easily possible (if you can find the bp again ;) ).

It also seems part of the payback side is getting a good bp rather than what item is actually being clicked. That also seems a little strange and not good for making even semi-reliable calculations. That's not even about multis, but whether you might get 10,20, or whatever clicks of some super bp at some point. Maybe this is why MA decided to mark boosteds, as this was not known by enough people. But it appears the boost itself is a 'poorly understood concept'. Things are undergoing change, though, dear OP, but is it good?

Edit: I'd welcome the return of ootos, such as spaceships. By that we mean mining could spawn a little alien ship and a couple of guard robots sometimes. Thus the mined ore/enmatter might not global, but the little ship would have a nice surprise. BRING them back please MA!
 
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Yes, I've noticed risks seem to be getting higher and it is more likely each risk will not pay off and that even trying to assess the values involved becomes harder and time-consuming due to low volumes.
I've wondered about whether people will be gathering up stackable bps now as one bp until maybe worth a run. That is a change MA have made more easily possible (if you can find the bp again ;) ).

It also seems part of the payback side is getting a good bp rather than what item is actually being clicked. That also seems a little strange and not good for making even semi-reliable calculations. That's not even about multis, but whether you might get 10,20, or whatever clicks of some super bp at some point. Maybe this is why MA decided to mark boosteds, as this was not known by enough people. But it appears the boost itself is a 'poorly understood concept'. Things are undergoing change, though, dear OP, but is it good?

The problem with stockpiling for big runs is still that you have to pay for so many unneeded items that it ends in a major loss too, not because of bad returns, but by having paid a lot of MU for materials which are not needed.
Pre loot2.0 was much better in that regard as it was nowhere near as volatile, neither tt-return-wise nor success-rate-wise, as it currently is. Pre 2.0 it was just click whatever has or may have MU, that's kinda what you want in terms of economy.

As it goes for boosted BPs, wondering what the boost of BPs, which have boosted mark but don't give multi on every success/near success, is. But then, maybe they aren't boosted at all and their mark is just a mistake.
 
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I try to get this before it does close. Yes, I do feel mining, and many areas are overlooked a lot. I guess hunting is so much of what this game is about. Wh have had mining boxes that have new stuff in including new finders. Then you don't need a high level for them. What type of finder could they produce for higher levels? Once you reach L50 its not much different to L100. If they gave the advantage to higher levels who could use new finders to find more rare items and less filler. then again filler stuff has better mu than rare stuff atm.

So you suggest A higher level miners that will do 10000% guarantee profit all day all night ? Something like high end hunters in loot v.1 ?

No thanks . Game should be dynamic and change over time . Noone should be guarantee profit every time he click the mouse . For F sake
 
*nods* (to Alukat). I was also wondering if some boosted markings could be mistakes, given by what people were saying. It highlights that there is more and more involved with no idea of whether things are even working as intended. In the past it could be key-tt not being repaid in the final box of an instance - something that people could at least be reasonably sure was going wrong over time.
Nowadays MA can hide behind some unknown boost factor, the drop or not of a bp into your loot. Heck, there may not even be any of some bps left in the pool at all and nobody can know for sure except MA. It's getting more than untidy - and I feel it is turning people away.
Let multis be multis, MA. If we get them, we know what is happening and get a better idea of how often it should happen as well. If we see them on the hof board, we may not know whether it was a condition or quantity click, but at least we will see them (as long as eps don't smother the boards as usual.. - maybe separate the boards, MA?)
 
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