Conversation about Varying [Bet] Sizes (Poll)

Which do you think is true?

  • Multiplier was wasted

    Votes: 8 18.6%
  • It does not matter

    Votes: 21 48.8%
  • The cake (kickbacks) is a lie

    Votes: 7 16.3%
  • Other (explain in post)

    Votes: 7 16.3%

  • Total voters
    43
Yes, they can change the algorithm at any time they'd like. It's their game. Would they? Likely not. Why? Changing a working payout algorithm is a costly thing, especially when it involves real money. Parameters, however, I am sure they play around with :D

On topic:
I think what you do, as an individual player, does not matter.
I think that Mindark doesn't look at you, as an individual player, at a micro level, at all. Why would they? They don't care at all, because they don't have to. They, as a company, only have to balance their incomes vs their expenses. Easy job for a statistician with 15+ years of data with various different settings to draw conclusions of what is a decent "player retention setting". The only thing they need to care about is keeping people around, and ensuring that they keep shooting/dropping/clicking.

I do believe that every instance is "unique", your last mob/craft/drop does not matter at all. What you do, and what others do (+randomness) is what decides your outcome.

Macro level: RTP < Income
Micro level: Balance between average returns (player retention, if you consistently lose 50% of your money everytime you kill a mob you are going to quit) and big payouts (player retention + marketing) if you had a constant 99% payout on every single mob, you would quit instantly.

So basically, my view of it all is:
Mindark doesn't care at all, as long as you are happy enough to keep shooting/clicking/dropping. So they balance the parameters for the payout algorithm to fit the current playerbase, to a point where they keep playing. That would be both maximizing the minimum payout, versus the volatility for big payouts. This is "easy" to do with enough data.

So actual on topic:
The simple I conductor for the hunter, does not matter. Be a little sad that you didn't hit that multiplier on your hunt, but be happy you hit the multiplier and move on.
The simple I conductor for the crafter, does not matter. Be a little sad that you didn't hit that multiplier on your bigger craft, but be happy you hit the multiplier and move on.

C)
 
So actual on topic:
The simple I conductor for the hunter, does not matter. Be a little sad that you didn't hit that multiplier on your hunt, but be happy you hit the multiplier and move on.
The simple I conductor for the crafter, does not matter. Be a little sad that you didn't hit that multiplier on your bigger craft, but be happy you hit the multiplier and move on.

C)

That is basically how I see it too...

It does suck if I'm doing a 3ped/click mega cycle (like say >9k ped cycle almost 4 hours long), hit nothing but crap multis on it, then switch to component crafting like say Standard Plate (0.08 ped/click) and hit a 1k multi (80 ped global). It does happen, and it really sucks...

The only way to guard against that is to just stop doing the low cost clicks and do samples of about 30 minutes to see what the returns are like and if it's worth it. But doing that will greatly limit the times when you can really cycle ped down to maybe 2-3 times per week, if you can catch the good times..

But all this gets exhausting and who's to say you're not gonna hit a nice one in the middle of the night when no one else is on, it's so random that there's really no way to know what's gonna happen in the next 2 minutes.

I did notice time and time again though that there are some periods where the returns are particularly gruesome, as if the loot system was trying to compensate for a large withdrawal of something.

Oh well, just play the game, but proceed in a cautious and calculated manner.

Legends
 
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I did notice time and time again though that there are some periods where the returns are particularly gruesome, as if the loot system was trying to compensate for a large withdrawal of something.

or compensating for lack of others actively spending ped in decay in the same profession one to one and a half hours earlier in that same day's cycle. (I kind of subscribe to the idea the big globals are sort of like a real world progressive slot machine..... so more loot in the pool = more payouts that day essentially)
 
... it's so random that there's really no way to know what's gonna happen in the next 2 minutes.
Forgotten already all the "fix the loot waves" screaming, yes?

It does suck if I'm doing a 3ped/click mega cycle (like say >9k ped cycle almost 4 hours long), hit nothing but crap multis on it, then switch to component crafting like say Standard Plate (0.08 ped/click) and hit a 1k multi (80 ped global). It does happen, and it really sucks...
You are not "due" a multiplier just because you cycled x amount of peds or did x clicks since any arbitrary point in time. The likelihood increases with the number of clicks, of course. But if the response was tailored to your individual input, the game would have to be considered rigged, and you know what will happen the moment authorities find out about it. If there was evidence in the past, this mandatorily changed by now. Hence it makes no sense to perceive a multiplier as wasted when it occurs while you do something less expensive.

Think of how much money the system can have to redistribute at any given moment, and what makes some times better than others. These factors aren't in the machine, they are entirely human. Your contribution is but a drop in the ocean. Are you swimming with the current, or against it?

Maybe it is so difficult to adopt a working theory because the problem is more in psychology than in mathematics. They can probably make this game as deterministic as it can be, people will still go about it like they approach gambling. They cannot control their impulses. They don't calculate, they hope. Or their only calculation is based on a false sense of entitlement. They are not able to put a stop limit on an expensive run, because the moment they stop, the next global appearing in the ticker should have been theirs, right? They are entitled to it after spending so much, right? RIGHT? And then people wonder why ever more obnoxious and suffocating laws are made to protect us all from ourselves.

PS: There are extensive lessons on the basics, mechanics, do's and don'ts of Forex trading widely available for free. It seems to me we should hint at their field more often. It is of course not the same system, but much of the advice very applicable.
 
If Mindark would be considered gambling, then US citizens would not be allowed to play.

?? there is a place known throughout the world for its gambling.. that is located in the u.s. hmm can't remember the name though.. Las Amsterdamn? no that isn't it.. The U.S. has casino's all over now days they get placed on Indian reservations because the federal government can't impose those "laws" there..

Not saying that MA is a casino, although sometimes it feels like one when running explosive blueprints.. and if it were, then you couldn't get adjustments to success at a casino.

Scratch cards and lottery tickets are also gambling, and those are distributed from the individual states. anyways, the internet is still not entirely governed. as someone said, we should probably look at it more as investments like in forex trading (something a lot of american's do...) Is the stock market "gambling"? depends on one's definition.. I guess if you approached picking out stocks like you do lottery tickets then you would have the opinion of "that's gambling" but if you approach it in a way that is calculated, with strategy, and with technical analysis.. is it still gambling?

BTW, I remember in the mid-2000's when MA and Other software company's who allowed you to "deposit" USD into their game and withdrawal it had to go before the supreme court to explain themselves.. the supreme court was like "are you a bank?", etc. apparently MA, and some of these other companies, satisfied the supreme court. otherwise they would be on the top of the list to be eradicated from the American public eye.

Now the question lies, if it is investing, is MA a brokerage? None the less, it probably isn't for anyone on these forums to decide these things.. so I will stop here.
 
?? there is a place known throughout the world for its gambling.. that is located in the u.s. hmm can't remember the name though.. Las Amsterdamn? no that isn't it.. The U.S. has casino's all over now days they get placed on Indian reservations because the federal government can't impose those "laws" there..

Not saying that MA is a casino, although sometimes it feels like one when running explosive blueprints.. and if it were, then you couldn't get adjustments to success at a casino.

Scratch cards and lottery tickets are also gambling, and those are distributed from the individual states. anyways, the internet is still not entirely governed. as someone said, we should probably look at it more as investments like in forex trading (something a lot of american's do...) Is the stock market "gambling"? depends on one's definition.. I guess if you approached picking out stocks like you do lottery tickets then you would have the opinion of "that's gambling" but if you approach it in a way that is calculated, with strategy, and with technical analysis.. is it still gambling?

BTW, I remember in the mid-2000's when MA and Other software company's who allowed you to "deposit" USD into their game and withdrawal it had to go before the supreme court to explain themselves.. the supreme court was like "are you a bank?", etc. apparently MA, and some of these other companies, satisfied the supreme court. otherwise they would be on the top of the list to be eradicated from the American public eye.

Now the question lies, if it is investing, is MA a brokerage? None the less, it probably isn't for anyone on these forums to decide these things.. so I will stop here.

You miss the point. Online gambling is illegal in the US.
 
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