Haruto Rat
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I'd much rather have a 1.0 probability shooting 14.3 Sand Kings as an "uber", than 476.1 Sand Kings as a noob, based on your math, ZPF - even if the theoretical risk is higher.
You don't get 1.00 probability this way.
If you have ~0.07 chance in one attempt, 14 attempts would give you 1 - (1 - 0.07)^14 ~= 0.64 chance. (Note it's the chance of getting that ESI at least once, you can also get several, but that's already binomial distribution)
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