Problem is I AM sure about my return ... But not about others... But some people seem to be sure about EVERYONE here getting 90% ... Which one is more logical?
No the problem is that given all the EVIDENCE and FACTS and TESTING and LOGS it would appear that the long term average is ~90%. Until some data comes along to disprove that, it's what we have to go with. That is far more logical than believing some guy who claims otherwise, with nothing to support that claim.
Simply saying you are "sure about your return" without any numbers to support that does not do anything to help anyone here.
Allow me to share with you some data from my logs and I'll show you why you feel so sure about your returns:
Out of 911 runs tracked (going back 2.5 years):
26.7% of the time the run was >= 100%
20.3% of the time the run was <100% but >=75%
53.0% of the time the run was <75%
My worst run with at least 100 loot generating opportunities was 31.03%
No one is saying bad returns don't happen. I fail to break even on 3 out of every 4 runs, with 2 of them being less than 75% back. If I didn't track my runs, I'd probably think I was getting poor returns as well. And as humans, we tend to add more weight on negative events then to the positive ones. It's just the way we are wired.
But after all that is said and done, my entire log has me at 90.13% which confirms the idea that average long term returns will be ~90%, provided you play efficiently and are not wasteful.
There's always people on here that think the 90% idea is BS, but I have yet to see anyone post a log or share tracked returns that would invalidate this theory. If you really think you are getting lower than this, I suggest you track and share. Many in the community would love to see it.