90% Returns Still?

[Dr.D.C.]

It is not possible to monitor actual return rate due to lack of data.

Basically there would exist two possibilities. One is to monitor return on a sample of avatars over time. Another possibility is to monitor single loot values per mob and dmg done, per drop and amp or per click and BP.

actually you can track your runs

my personal experience is that my loot return was never even close to 90%, but it s me, i m stupid, i dunno how to play etcetc
gl
dc

 

[SunnyS]

Sunny, I dont think the 90% return on TT happens when you craft on condition, which I seem to recall you doing.

I do know that I do get an average around 90% return on TT when hunting using maxed weapons, unamped mining, and crafting on quantity with maxed bp's, as I kept a log for 2 months last year to test this for myself.

See this is what I mean. Now, out of all the people here I know I trust you the most and I believe you 100% that you do get that. But I haven't even got 50% returns when I do unamped mining or quantity crafting. As you can see my HOFs and Globals have dropped considerably in the last few months... Why? ... Because I have been crafting springs on quantity and I still never EVER get 90% return.

Even if it was true that you don't get 90% on condition and amped mining ... It still proves that you can't always get 90% ... Because no none would only do unamped or quantity 100% of the time.. Will they ... So to categorically say that it's 90% across the board is a fallacy .. Wouldn't you agree ?

 

[SunnyS]

Not taking a stab at you here, but I assume you have kept a long term log? You seem to be very sure it's not 90%.

You can stab me as much as you like but I won't return a loot. Just like EU lol

Problem is I AM sure about my return ... But not about others... But some people seem to be sure about EVERYONE here getting 90% ... Which one is more logical?

 

[mrproper]

Problem is I AM sure about my return ... But not about others... But some people seem to be sure about EVERYONE here getting 90% ... Which one is more logical?

Show us your numbers. Spend around 1000 PED on anything you usually do and log returns. We'll agree with you on any percentage you get, as that being your % return.

 

[DoubleWolf]

Problem is I AM sure about my return ... But not about others... But some people seem to be sure about EVERYONE here getting 90% ... Which one is more logical?

No the problem is that given all the EVIDENCE and FACTS and TESTING and LOGS it would appear that the long term average is ~90%. Until some data comes along to disprove that, it's what we have to go with. That is far more logical than believing some guy who claims otherwise, with nothing to support that claim.

Simply saying you are "sure about your return" without any numbers to support that does not do anything to help anyone here.

Allow me to share with you some data from my logs and I'll show you why you feel so sure about your returns:

Out of 911 runs tracked (going back 2.5 years):

26.7% of the time the run was >= 100%
20.3% of the time the run was <100% but >=75%
53.0% of the time the run was <75%

My worst run with at least 100 loot generating opportunities was 31.03%

No one is saying bad returns don't happen. I fail to break even on 3 out of every 4 runs, with 2 of them being less than 75% back. If I didn't track my runs, I'd probably think I was getting poor returns as well. And as humans, we tend to add more weight on negative events then to the positive ones. It's just the way we are wired.

But after all that is said and done, my entire log has me at 90.13% which confirms the idea that average long term returns will be ~90%, provided you play efficiently and are not wasteful.

There's always people on here that think the 90% idea is BS, but I have yet to see anyone post a log or share tracked returns that would invalidate this theory. If you really think you are getting lower than this, I suggest you track and share. Many in the community would love to see it.

 

[RobBuona]

You can stab me as much as you like but I won't return a loot. Just like EU lol

Problem is I AM sure about my return ... But not about others... But some people seem to be sure about EVERYONE here getting 90% ... Which one is more logical?

http://jsfiddle.net/k3y6N/15/

Take a gander at this...fact is, in same cases it takes longer than others to arrive at the long term average. That's why it's called "long" term! But with enough use cases, it all levels out in the end. You just need to be able to survive the short term losses, and that has always been the challenge.

 

[mrproper]

http://jsfiddle.net/k3y6N/15/

Take a gander at this...fact is, in same cases it takes longer than others to arrive at the long term average. That's why it's called "long" term! But with enough use cases, it all levels out in the end. You just need to be able to survive the short term losses, and that has always been the challenge.

One of those runs had 34% after hundreds of mobs. And one had over 150% all the time.

That tool has potential, but I suggest some tweakings if you know the author.

 

[DoubleWolf]

http://jsfiddle.net/k3y6N/15/

Take a gander at this...fact is, in same cases it takes longer than others to arrive at the long term average. That's why it's called "long" term! But with enough use cases, it all levels out in the end. You just need to be able to survive the short term losses, and that has always been the challenge.

Well that looks like a reasonable experiment, but how are the variables interacting with each other? I don't really understand code well enough to know how to read that. I'm seeing something about system payout rates and frequency multipliers but I can't see how they effect what each "player" gets back in loot. Is there any indication that this is indeed how the game works?

 

[Sircus]

Well that looks like a reasonable experiment, but how are the variables interacting with each other? I don't really understand code well enough to know how to read that. I'm seeing something about system payout rates and frequency multipliers but I can't see how they effect what each "player" gets back in loot. Is there any indication that this is indeed how the game works?

Interesting

 

[RobBuona]

Well that looks like a reasonable experiment, but how are the variables interacting with each other? I don't really understand code well enough to know how to read that. I'm seeing something about system payout rates and frequency multipliers but I can't see how they effect what each "player" gets back in loot. Is there any indication that this is indeed how the game works?

Well, that isn't my application - there is a "credits" section that tells you who wrote it. One of them is Piotr, who I believe is still an active player.

 

[Magix]

One mistake people make is that they think that after playing for a month, they should end up with 90% of what they started with. This is not what "90% returns" means.

This means, if you start with 100 ped:

Run 1: 100 in, 90 back.
Run 2: 90 in, 81 back.
Run 3: 81 in, 72.9 back.
etc.

Therefore, depending on how fast you cycle through your peds, you could reach zero in a relatively short amount of time.

Also, what most people here are talking about is length of run. If you take any single loot or small sample of loots, it's quite possible to see huge variances. I used to do 200 ped apis hunting runs, and it was quite possible for me to see 3 or more losing runs in a row. However, when I started 800 ped apis hunting runs, it was much easier to see how loot flattened out with a bigger sample. In my experience, you want to do about 60-100 loots per run, and several runs per day, to see how loot evens out over time.

 

[Kerham]

I don't think that 90% would be some birthright of an EU player. For me, is true on mining and hunting, but on crafting, rofl, long way to anywhere close.

 

[mrproper]

I don't think that 90% would be some birthright of an EU player. For me, is true on mining and hunting, but on crafting, rofl, long way to anywhere close.

Since you are combining all of the above, and the success rate on crafting is less than 40% (and even then you don't get the tt back from the materials), your crafting losses get returned during mining and hunting. You would need to stick to only crafting for several months to see that part get close to 90% returns.

 

[Evil Aeon]

1-2 out of 10 runs 105-120% TT return , 3 out of 5 runs 70-90% return , 2 out of 5 runs 50% .This 50% killing fun for me

 

[mrproper]

1-2 out of 10 runs 105-120% TT return , 3 out of 5 runs 70-90% return , 2 out of 5 runs 50% .This 50% killing fun for me

Mine look like this:

I don't care about the 40% ones. Never go ALL-IN.

 

[Norm]

I'm primarily a miner, but I've cycled around ~35k ped YTD hunting, primarily on Corn/Allo/Esto/Atrax (working on missions). My TT return is just shy of 91%.