Hardwrath, the main issue with that ammo theory, is:
1)Why would it even be there?
There needs to be a logical and coherent path for money to flow from our bank accounts through the EU economy and into MindArk's pockets.
While 100% of our deposits technically are transferred into MindArk's bank accounts right away, as a company they still have to record those deposits as "Contingent Liabilities" which essentially means "money they owe us". When we deposit, essentially MindArk is taking on a debt since at any point we can withdraw that same money. Thus for accounting reasons, the PED and TT value that we have on hand has to be accounted for which is why they have Contingent Liabilities on their balance sheet.
At any given point MindArk has to fuel two money hungry beasts. One is their own costs along with the need for profit as a company. The second is the loot system. That loot system is the core of the virtual world and is the primary thing that causes money to flow between players.
The money for the loot system has to come from somewhere. Because this is real money, the system as a whole has to be dependent on the input/output of all participants otherwise MindArk could easily run themselves bankrupt.
There has to be a mechanism to deplete Player Held funds and at the same time there has to be a mechanism to fuel the loot system.
Decay drains Player Held funds from the virtual universe thus reducing MindArk's Contingent Liabilities
Ammo burn fuels the loot system and allows PED to flow between players. That same loot system is what motivates players to deposit and then decay their items in the first place. One fuels the other.
Think about some scenarios with PED
Deposit $1,000 and get 10,000 PED. MindArk now has another $1,000 to use as they need to however they also have another $1,000 in Contingent Liabilities (debt).
Buy a weapon with a TT value of 200 PED and a markup of 5,000 PED so 5200 PED in total. The 5000 PED in markup simply transfers from player to player. To MindArk that 5000 PED is the same thing because as long as it’s sitting on someone's PED card or in the TT value of something then it’s a Contingent Liability.
When the TT value of that item is spent through decay, that money then leaves the virtual world forever and is Gross Profit for MindArk.
When you spend PED in ammo burn, that PED enters the loot system and cycles between you and other players. Lets say that your hunting run is a big PED loss, meanwhile I get a global and loot a (L) item with a TT value of 200 PED. Someone somewhere will decay that item.
Money transferred from you, into the loot system, and into my inventory. During that process, the decay we generated left the virtual world permanently and is now Gross Profit for MindArk. Meanwhile someone out there will also decay that 200 PED (L) item that I looted, creating more decay.
Essentially all the money in the loot system is still a Contingent Liability because its money that is simply cycling from one player to another. While that cycling happens, we decay our items which reduces MindArk's Contingent Liability of player held funds aka generating Gross Profit for MindArk.
2)How would it translate to all other professions?
Mining is simple and is just like hunting. The value of bombs and probes enter the loot system. Decay of (L) and unlimited items leave the virtual economy permanently.
Crafting is a whole different world since the crafter doesn’t directly generate any decay at all however indirectly the crafter creates whole new ways for other players to decay.
Crafting is a fantastic way to help facilitate the cycling of PED between players. For MindArk's contingent liabilities it is essentially neutral which is why perhaps crafting doesn’t seem to always be too high on MindArk's priority list.
I assume that TT value losses in crafting simply enter the loot system like ammo burn or decay. Crafting mining amps even requires the usage of bombs and probes in the crafting process which certainly adds money to the loot system. It’s possible that certain crafting ingredients don’t enter the loot system and end up as Gross Profit for MindArk however I can’t think of any current scenarios where that would make sense. Eventually MindArk will figure out how to incorporate decay into crafting and make it work with the overall system. I can already think of a way they can do it.
Anyway, Hunters and miners end up decaying the crafted items they purchase which generates a ton of gross profit for MA. The ammo, bombs, and probes used in the process help further fuel the loot system.
It's much easier to implement and control a universal algorithm that dictates return ratio per PEDs cycled, for all activities that net returns. Occam's razor at it's best.
Believe it or not, the current system isn’t that complicated. Once you understand the core principles of it you can easily explain everything in EU.
Over the years there have been many additions to EU and it seems more complicate then it is.
Another big question is (not related to the ammo vs decay theory, though): would PEDs used on decay on things that only generate skills but no tangible returns, like beautician, armor decay, healing, etc. be accounted for in such an algorithm to be returned back to the player to keep his universal spendings around that ratio, or only the ones directly spent on activities that net tangible returns other than skills?
Everything is accounted for... but maybe not in the way that you think it is... it’s dynamic
Your question is a good one and it’s hard to prove or disprove it one way or another. Essentially you are asking:
If I spend X amount of PED doing something that doesn’t draw from the loot system, will I then at some point get more out of the loot system to make up for it?
Skill gains in all professions inherently have a contingent liability in them since they have value to them that we can extract and cash in. I believe that skill gains are accounted for in your overall ratio of returns.
Let’s say you stand in one place and shoot off 1,000 PED of ammo into the air... will you get better loot returns to make up for it? It’s hard to say but if you do it please let me know so I can go out and hunt while you are doing it
The other non standard professions such as stylist, sculptor, pilot, etc end up turning over small amounts of PED in loot and decay however they also have a profit opportunity tied to them. Since that profit opportunity exists, these professions can be a direct drain on the EU economy because these people have an ability to accumulate player held funds and withdraw the money. Some people have some interesting loot theories that revolve around these kinds of people. Would MindArk nerf their loot in order to keep money in-world? Does MindArk nerf loot of anyone? They say that they don’t.