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FYI: Best Theory EVER

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R4tt3xx

I want to believe
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Alexis Sky Greenstar
The game's mechanics are at the moment unknown, but the inverse is also true.

The game does not know how WE play, therefore to the game's system, we are RANDOM. Us as players do not know what the hell we are doing.

The probem with EVERY theory so far is perspective, we have out own way of seeing things, so does the game devolpers and the system that they have created. Mindark's system has to draw stats and adapt to different playstyles in order to make the game fair, so from time to time, it fudges the loot, gives out what it should.

How it does it, hit me like a ton of bricks. Statistics and probibility, the same type of math that falkao‎ used in his mining and hunting loot return tests.

See if from Mindark's point of view, they have to come up with a system that delivers pridictable results from a random set of data. Mindark is NOT a casino, please stop treating them as one.
 
I was kinda following you til the last part. Yes they are an online casino with a fancy front.

-Bemo-
 
agree 100% , its not a casino.

sure you as a player can loose your peds fast if you try and treat eu as a casino , but its not a casino just because you as a player takes it for one.

system doesent know what you think, but it tries to adapt to your playstyle to some extent.

good pov, from the systems perspective rather than the players.

+rep

cheers

ermik
 
The problem with any theory the players of this game will ever have is that they will be unproveable, as there will never be a adequate control group to which comparisons can be made. The puppetmasters will never reveal the formula for the secret sauce.
 
I agree with the OP, this game is not a casino, its been investigated officially, ending results were, its not random overall and it is not a casino(i forget where i saw this)

But with personal experience, depending on what i do i can get 100% return or 40% return. With all facts and stuff i hear you will get most of your peds back long term.

The problem alot of people dont see is this, they think MU is apart of what you are owed which is not so.
That is the biggest problem with alot of people, they spend MU and expect that MU back.
You only cover using MU with only gaining MU.
 
I beg to differ, you buy peds (chip) you buy ammo shoot mobs. Global bingo "jackpot"

Ask and professional gambler they can make a living out of gambling ?

Where is the difference ?

Call it what you want you are still Gambling one way or another.
 
Is playing EU gambling? I will not argue for or against that. I suppose to some at least it is, but what EU is not, is a casino, for one very simple reason. When you go to a casino you know your odds (mostly), while in EU you don't.
 
Ok, lets apply the gambling idea.

We buy ammo/ buy chips.

We kill a monster/ we make a bet for a hand.

We loot monster/ we either lose it all or double/ more

Now this is where the difference is.
EU= lost ped goes into a earn back pouch for example, which you can earn back.

Casino, you place another singular bet that will not take into consideration just lost that amount, last bet.
 
Dennis blighter said:
I agree with the OP, this game is not a casino, its been investigated officially, ending results were, its not random overall and it is not a casino(i forget where i saw this)
Click to expand...
The swedish lottery inspection concluded that the game is not a lottery, as in not dictated purely by chance.
Some people interpret this as getting perception or owning a MM is a winning ticket. In reality all that was needed was to show that people can fire into the air and not get any loot.
R4tt3xx said:
See if from Mindark's point of view, they have to come up with a system that delivers pridictable results from a random set of data. Mindark is NOT a casino, please stop treating them as one.
Click to expand...
Casinos deliver predictable results from a random set of data.
 
Beanie said:
Call it what you want you are still Gambling one way or another.
Click to expand...

I repeat call it what you want, you can split hairs all day.............
 
Since there is some people making sustained profit in this game and withdrawing every month I fail to see how this is a casino...
 
slot machines generate payouts using a random number generator, numbers being generated thousands of times a second. each number represents a combination of reels. most of the numbers are designated to low or no payout reel combinations while very very few are designated to jackpots. each 'spin' is not influenced by any previous spins whatsoever. that's how they work and why they are considered 'gambling', because it is an unknown outcome for every time you spin the reels. this is a fact, at least in the US.

eu loot payouts are generated by a complex algorithm taking into account many things. it takes into account previous ped cycled, location, loot available, loot needed, skills, unknown variables, etc etc etc and at the end of the calculation out pops your loot. this is the conclusion i've come to based on many observations, and loot tracking, and common sense. one obvious proof is the 90% tt return, would that happen in a casino? hell no.

two very different things here, the only 'random' outcome from loot, that i think, is rare items... those just may use a RNG. for example instead of getting 100ped of eye oil you get a 100ped esi if the rest of the algorithm and rng leads to that.u
 
I would like to end this debate once and for all... Entropia is not a casino! If it is then why is there no beer????? :girl:
 
pink said:
I would like to end this debate once and for all... Entropia is not a casino! If it is then why is there no beer????? :girl:
Click to expand...
motorheadkeg-png.2077
 
EU is not gambling. It can be played that way, but only if you want to have a very simplistic view of the game.

In a casino, playing say roulette, the odds of a number coming up are always the same.

They're not influenced by the last number spun.

Or how much was bet by the guy sitting next to you.

Or the last roll of the dice in the craps game at the next table.

Or the number of cards left in the shoe on a blackjack table on the floor below.


We've been told for years that EU loot is 'dynamic ;)'.

And that's exactly what I think loot in EU is: A dynamical system. A practical application of a field of applied mathematics, presented in the form of a game.

I'll let you Google 'dynamical systems theory' for yourself, and find the wealth of information on the topic.
 
R4tt3xx said:
See if from Mindark's point of view, they have to come up with a system that delivers pridictable results from a random set of data.
Click to expand...

You're almost there, but not quite. If you truly want to understand you have to ask yourself this question:

How would anyone design a game that 99.9%(ish) of the time, they can ensure that they pay out a little less in TT than is used (decayed) regardless of:

  • How they hunt
  • How they mine
  • How they craft

No matter what weapon, gear, or blueprint they use. Regardless of skill levels. Regardless of how much or little someone does it. Regardless of playing eco or not. Using equipment "meant for their level" or not. No matter much they bounce, camp, whatever.

If you were to build a TT decay system (think: micro-payment) that would work regardless of qty of players or how they played (remember, MA built their loot system before folks played, and had no idea how we'd end up playing this game) how would you build it? :wise:
 
I usually dont like getting in to these type of conversations about mining theories, cause there are no theories. But since I've been here for a long time and have mostly mined the last five years, and paid attention, I have found some interesting observations.

1) Mining somewhat works the same as hunting, the deposits behave in much the same way as mob distribution.

2) If you pay attention, you can figure out where and when to drop, I have been doing that for many years now, and have lived on my deposits for at least 5 years...maybe more.

The interesting thing I have noticed is, since I get such very high percentage of hits, the amount of deposits have reduced slowly. At first I couldnt figure out why, and then one day the light bulb lit. Its kind of the same idea when one goes in to a casino and plays cards, if they suspect your counting cards and your good at it, they cant claim cheating cause your using your mind, but they will tell you to leave and not ever come back, its a safeguard.

So, since the game makers had to also figure out a safeguard in case someone by chance could figure out the system, they do so by looking at your hit percentage, and if its unusually high, the just reduce the amounts by X percentage, so you cant game the system.

Someone would say, well why dont you use amps, I have considered using them, but not sure whether amps actually pay off, even if I get a 75% hit rate, the 25% loss rate may not give me any real profit considering the cost of amps, I may try it one day.

I have used 105 equipment for a long time, which got changed to 106 when they put the two together. I cant remember the last time I even got a global, never mind a hof, but when I sell my stuff, I always have enough for the next trip.

Of course that could change tomorrow, after all...its dynamic....lol

Von
 
Let me explain, from my point of view, which is subjective. How this all works.

Actually I am not even going to go there. There are a couple of theorems in statistics, one of them is the central limit theorem. It states that for an infninte amount of data points, the sum of the data samples will be +- a normal distribution.

In other words as long as no one is cheating, they should expect returns ranging from 34 to 95% +-. This is accomplished through a measurement of our addiction, levels. Higher level can access a higher % of the total loot per resource node.

Yes I said resource node. Little points where loot accumulates as you pass through them, and I am going to stop right there.

This is not the entire picture of course, as the rest is purely speculation. I know that I want to create as a baseline model, it will just take some time to create the math that does the job.

The 3d sphere is going to be a challange, but I think I have a way to get through it.
 
The loot system is a casino. Markup is not. Ain't no rocket science here.
 
The best theory I ever heard in EU, one that even strikes down my own theories is this;
All loot theories are well researched and wrong.
 
The funny thing here, R4tt3xx is , even though you figure the game or part of it that can make you profit steadily ( whitout LA, deds .etc.) they will eventually stop you from doing that:)

So you're being watched right now, the second after you crack they will change the thing for you or maybe for all:) and then you find yourself at ground zero starting the loot theory again and again...so in the end you go crazy:)


Just play the game man and hope for the best!
 
JohnCapital said:
You're almost there, but not quite. If you truly want to understand you have to ask yourself this question:

How would anyone design a game that 99.9%(ish) of the time, they can ensure that they pay out a little less in TT than is used (decayed) regardless of:

  • How they hunt
  • How they mine
  • How they craft

No matter what weapon, gear, or blueprint they use. Regardless of skill levels. Regardless of how much or little someone does it. Regardless of playing eco or not. Using equipment "meant for their level" or not. No matter much they bounce, camp, whatever.

If you were to build a TT decay system (think: micro-payment) that would work regardless of qty of players or how they played (remember, MA built their loot system before folks played, and had no idea how we'd end up playing this game) how would you build it? :wise:
Click to expand...

well.. first i would make a statistical model of the game which simulates 1000s of loots , starting with a base formula running on the stat' model and then tweak the formula until the desired result is achieved 100000 times over , then when thats done you raise a considerable ammount of cash to add as the initial "pool" (and safety measure so even at the first minute of server up for 1st time there is loot to be won and some global spamming from the first kills)
to get it to work regardless of playerbase all u have to do is set restraints on the max loot in any low period for eg 's

IF lootpool < 50000 then maxloot = 25000
same for loss ajustment
IF player loss > (totaldeposit / 2) then increase big loot chance
and for gain ajustments
IF playertotalloot > totaldeposit then nerf player loot

these failsafe's could be anything you dont want to happen , or want to happen extremely rarely
The pool never pays out what isnt there (if it does then MA people are as mad as a hat on a mad person which clearly reads "mad person below!")
If you were worried about the pool running dry by freak occurence (just paranoya), soon you are safe since 50% of looted items dont even drain the pool because people deposit to pay the looter , then u have a mind-gasm as u watch the pool increase expenentionaly and all that real usd sits in your fat account never getting fully payed out .
 
RobBuona said:
The loot system is a casino. Markup is not. Ain't no rocket science here.
Click to expand...

Yes it is a lottery of sorts, but predictable. Heck mining depth follows uniform distribution

e - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_(mathematical_constant)
(n) - natural number
Th = Theta
Rho = "The radius in the spherical coordinate system" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rho
Pi / phi = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phi
A = Area

e^nThRhoP(h)i=A - entropia

Wow, need to read this later -

http://www.math.montana.edu/frankw/ccp/multiworld/multipleIVP/spherical/body.htm

Google is your friend (theta rho pi formula) - Well now, really is that so hard...
 
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R4tt3xx said:
Yes it is a lottery of sorts, but predictable. Heck mining depth follows uniform distribution

e - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E_(mathematical_constant)
(n) - natural number
Th = Theta
Rho = "The radius in the spherical coordinate system" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rho
Pi / phi = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phi
A = Area

e^nThRhoP(h)i=A - entropia

Wow, need to read this later -

http://www.math.montana.edu/frankw/ccp/multiworld/multipleIVP/spherical/body.htm

Google is your friend (theta rho pi formula) - Well now, really is that so hard...
Click to expand...

that says "what goes around comes around, and what comes around went that way"?:scratch2:
 
Hey look it's Rattexx's annual "i'll post a formula that I think applies to EU that I think no one else could possibly understand (and therefore not refute) and try and look smart"

Loot system is known. I've only posted the algorithms half a bajillion times, but still you create these threads.
:locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked::locked:
 
R4ttex, you should take a good look at your signature, and think for a bit, how it applies to you.
 
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R4tt3xx said:
The game does not know how WE play, therefore to the game's system, we are RANDOM.
Click to expand...

So wrong and so is the rest of your theory

gratz you learned something in first semester statistics btw :wtg:
 
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Beanie said:
I beg to differ, you buy peds (chip) you buy ammo shoot mobs. Global bingo "jackpot"

Ask and professional gambler they can make a living out of gambling ?

Where is the difference ?

Call it what you want you are still Gambling one way or another.
Click to expand...

My personal thesis is, who is around here for quite some time ans till sees EU as Casino, hasn't understood the concept of MU and how to use the market to their advantage.

Well go to the casino of your choice and ask the people there if they are willing to give you 110 Bucks for your 100 Dollar chip. When you find them in that place on regular base, let me know then i could revise my statement.
 
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