CLD ROI change?

[OZtwo]

MA, I have noticed the last few weeks since the update that the ROI of CLDs have gone way down in that I would have guessed with the big robot war going on these last few weeks that the ROI would have gone up. This weeks return being the lowest in months.

Looking at the logs the last time CLDs have been this low was back in 1-28-2013.

 

[antonioliveira]

It's been a steady down movement, and in the opposite side an increasing price for deeds.

That's economics, the less the deeds are paying the more their price goes up, go figure

 

[Audrey Cheerful]

the less the deeds are paying the more their price goes up, go figure

Correlation does not imply causation.

 

[sawachika]

If you look at the CLD spreadsheet that's apparently updating and tracking the payouts weekly, you can see that its somewhat holding steady at around 4.60 peds. So instead of saying its a downtrend, I'ld more likely think of it as a fluctuation in between a certain avg value or something.

And if you ask me, its not a pretty payout, but neither is it a bad one....maybe if we sort of extrapolate a bit....we can somewhat guess that its gonna be 240 peds / 1 year?

As for the rising prices of CLDs...the reason kindda escapes me for the time being and the only ideas that pop into mind range from diminishing supply of CLDs (exchanging hands from sellers to holders) to hmmmm....price manipulation?

Nonetheless, I'll still maintain my position, if the price or its payout is unsettling for me and prevents me from sleeping at night, then I'll have to reevaluate my stance upon it.

* Disclaimer - Its mostly just speculation and my pov on things. Not saying who's right or wrong. *

 

[OZtwo]

If you look at the CLD spreadsheet that's apparently updating and tracking the payouts weekly, you can see that its somewhat holding steady at around 4.60 peds. So instead of saying its a downtrend, I'ld more likely think of it as a fluctuation in between a certain avg value or something.

And if you ask me, its not a pretty payout, but neither is it a bad one....maybe if we sort of extrapolate a bit....we can somewhat guess that its gonna be 240 peds / 1 year?

Do you have CLDs? See, wouldn't be all that big of deal to see that the ROI are going down. BUT since we have this big robot war AND Treasure Island event going on right now, well, sorry, returns should have been a little higher these last few weeks and not at a all time low.

See, if the ROI are as low as they are now..what will they be when both events are over?

 

[addz]

If you look at the CLD spreadsheet that's apparently updating and tracking the payouts weekly, you can see that its somewhat holding steady at around 4.60 peds. So instead of saying its a downtrend, I'ld more likely think of it as a fluctuation in between a certain avg value or something.

And if you ask me, its not a pretty payout, but neither is it a bad one....maybe if we sort of extrapolate a bit....we can somewhat guess that its gonna be 240 peds / 1 year?

As for the rising prices of CLDs...the reason kindda escapes me for the time being and the only ideas that pop into mind range from diminishing supply of CLDs (exchanging hands from sellers to holders) to hmmmm....price manipulation?

Nonetheless, I'll still maintain my position, if the price or its payout is unsettling for me and prevents me from sleeping at night, then I'll have to reevaluate my stance upon it.

The reason the price is going up is because there is a fixed limited supply. Add to that the fact that the rate of return is as good as or better than a LA and that the lower price point makes it accessible to more people and you come to a conclusion that's similar to the situation we have now

 

[SanSiim]

Really no big loots in mining for like 2 months now = less deposits/PED cycled by hardcore miners.
Not many big (read over 10k) hofs in crafting = people that liked to gamble before don't probably have much of a interest in crafting so less deposits/revenue from there.

 

[Few Scars]

To make it worth while you really need over 25 CLDs to get about 100Ped per week. That's over 33kped (1340ped each) tied up in CLDs. For the sake of 100Ped I would rather use the Peds for other things and just keep the 9 needed for future voting and land rights.
They have been great profit makers for those buying originally at 1000, then 1150 and more recently 1200, but unless you have the capital to buy stacks of 10, 20, 50, 100 at those times, profits will be small.

As it stands the market is pushing the price towards the 1400 milestone. This will not fall unless there is another mass sale or if the ROI drops significantly.

They appear a safe investment at this stage, but like anything in this game, things can change dramatically at MindArks whim, where they have no concern for the market value for items nor how much money players lose.

GL

 

[Manique]

This also proves the point that it isnt always the same sort of events and some new armor giveaway or opurtinity to loot that will make people more active and more confident about playing.

Changing the loot style however would do a lot.

MA hasn't put any efforts yet into making the hunting profession more stable.
It now holds some sense having skills to be able to use better guns and the new guns are terrific, but the drop rate is a joke and so is the overall hunting loot, a miner has a big advantage.

Mining can be "adjusted", but yet on a very early level, there is a need for new mining finders, adjusting and making a point on having mining skills because atm i can do better with a small finder than a bigger one and it should be the other way around, making skills matter at some point.

If they MA announces that they are going to quit the extra shit content, this stupid event here, some new area there, new mission, etc... and says, we are now going to dedicate to optimize the game when it comes to bugs and stability along with revising the professions since it seems to be a problem ( not saying that MA needs to make this a charity house). I'd be sure that it'd bring people aboard again.

At the moment its a pain to log in, badly optimized grafic bugs, the game compared to some newer games doesn't look as awesome, and its far from being well optimized, lots of grafic glitches, not to mention the insane and increasing memory usage.

And its been some months now that the most annoying bug yet has been around, the one that mutes your microphone, and at least MA could show that they care and announce what is going to be worked on or not.

But again I'm just putting here some empty hopes, stuff that unfortunatly, I believe i'll see the game ending before they are accomplished by the way things are going.

 

[sawachika]

This also proves the point that it isn't always the same sort of events and some new armor giveaway or opportunity to loot that will make people more active and more confident about playing.

...........

I quite agree with him on this...

Perhaps people caught on and generally continue to mind their own business regardless of whether there are events or not? Since most of the time...these events are when they would bleed badly only for a "chance" to loot some item so they would rather avoid it? Hence the lack of an increase in CLD payout.

* Disclaimer - Its mostly just speculation and my pov on things. Not saying who's right or wrong. *

 

[Futurama]

1) an event does not guarantee more activity than other times.
2) about the cld price - since it started to climb rapidly from 1280s the supply has been kinda weak, so its back to elementary school kids - which of the primitive law is this?

 

[ALEXANDER]

Considering the fact that there was recently a mass sale of CLDs as potential moon investors tried to gather money, I would say their price will go up even more.

Also, the reason for which we are making less money off CLDs is the same reason that allows me now to "lazily hunt" while I play other games or watch TV shows at the same time: you no longer lose ammo/decay when shooting at nothing. Big events like the huge robot invasion have now become one of the most economical way of hunting, considering the wasted ped factor to gun down one of those guys. The cumulated armor/fap/chip decay from bringing a Vortex down is significantly less when you have 30 people shooting it in 1 minute vs one guy killing it in 10 minutes.

 

[AxeMurderer]

I am not surprised that the CLD prise is constantly going up.
I was surprised that the weeks before Moon sale the price didn't go down.
At the same time people were buying 100 CLD at once and there were few post about buying LAs.
So big players didn't sale any CLD (or not more then 10) they deposited or had in ped card 150 000 $ (probably more than 200 000 - 300 000 USD).
so if this isn't some grand market manipulation of CLD price:
1 - Price of CLD will go up, no mather that I want it to go down or if the dividents are falling
2 - Some people have big faith in the game or just too much money in RL

 

[ALEXANDER]

2 - Some people have big faith in the game or just too much money in RL

Considering the age of the game and the CLD payout, you should be a fool not to invest in them

 

[Art Jennifer]

Just two points really.

Are you looking at the ROI that YOU are getting from the price you paid
or
Are you looking at the ROI for the general market.



General market is probably going down to the increasing price.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?pli=1&key=0Aj1CPJcQncDndHF4X2I4aDB3blhFVWNpY2E3a1FUSWc#gid=0

Shows that the ROI is still pretty healthy, not sure if it takes price into account though :S


Also the TEN has cocked up my loot, then with the shared loot mobs, personally I am doing nothing atm

People want CLD's, they generate income and will hold their value/ not really drop below 1000ped again..

I would not be surprised if they hit 1500-2000 this year.

 

[Svarog]

I would have guessed with the big robot war going on these last few weeks that the ROI would have gone up.

It's easy. The robot invasion goes for 2 weeks now and people burnt up their funds during the first week. Even low level players went gambling on shared mobs and now are taking a break, having no money to continue with their normal combibo, daikiba and whatnot

Steadily hunting non-shared bots all this time, I observe a great decrease both in loot and players activity during the second week. West of Minopolis was quite crowded with green dots and now nobody's there. Frankly, I expected this week ROI to be even lower.

But all this says nothing about reliability of CLDs themselves, so

1 - Price of CLD will go up, no mather that I want it to go down or if the dividents are falling

 

[AxeMurderer]

Considering the age of the game and the CLD payout, you should be a fool not to invest in them

Probably if I sell my house and buy CLD after 10 years will have 2 houses, but this require a lot of faith and I'm saying some people have that kind of faith in this game.

 

[slupor]

It's easy. The robot invasion goes for 2 weeks now and people burnt up their funds during the first week. Even low level players went gambling on shared mobs and now are taking a break, having no money to continue with their normal combibo, daikiba and whatnot

Steadily hunting non-shared bots all this time, I observe a great decrease both in loot and players activity during the second week. West of Minopolis was quite crowded with green dots and now nobody's there. Frankly, I expected this week ROI to be even lower.

But all this says nothing about reliability of CLDs themselves, so

Plus that people slow down their turnover in hunting during events to prevent getting shafted even more than usual.

 

[mastermesh]

maybe cld roi is down since folks are visiting other planets? The THING is open again and it's got free oil (not much - about 22 pecs spawned every 4 minutes but it's in a non-lootable pvp zone...) also with TEN going on it's hitting all the planets not just Caly.

 

[FlorencioNine]

Do you have CLDs? See, wouldn't be all that big of deal to see that the ROI are going down. BUT since we have this big robot war AND Treasure Island event going on right now, well, sorry, returns should have been a little higher these last few weeks and not at a all time low.

See, if the ROI are as low as they are now..what will they be when both events are over?

Oz, isn't it quite obvious? Now, the events going on at the moment are nowhere near the event levels of Merry Mayhem or anything "big" like that. The story-line for these current events is terrible at best after-all so the only incentive to participate is the possibility of getting special rewards. As such, the big game players have stopped spending peds where they normally do (in every day activities) and have instead spent the same amount of peds, or close to it, on these new events. The same amount of ped is being spent, where it is being spent is just in a new place. So, I wouldn't expect the ROI of the CLDs to rise. The CLDs are also far from an all time low. They are hanging about around an average that's been seen since near the begining. The all time low was a little above 2PED/deed one week. The current CLD payout is by no means less than it should be or odd in any way.

 

[FlorencioNine]

The THING is open again and it's got free oil (not much - about 22 pecs spawned every 4 minutes but it's in a non-lootable pvp zone...) .

22 pecs spawned every 4 minutes? That's more than it was before. It was roughly 1PED spawned per hour before. At 22 pecs every 4 minutes that's 3.30PED per hour. I should get over there and get me some oil!

 

[OZtwo]

Just two points really.

Are you looking at the ROI that YOU are getting from the price you paid
or
Are you looking at the ROI for the general market.

Yes, I own one CLD just to watch the market.

It's easy. The robot invasion goes for 2 weeks now and people burnt up their funds during the first week. Even low level players went gambling on shared mobs and now are taking a break, having no money to continue with their normal combibo, daikiba and whatnot

Well, CLDs have been down since the two events and about the time the first Event started the CLD started going down..so well, break time was I guess before any event.


BUT...I forgot about the over all cost to play that MA stated they are working on. So this most likely is why CLDs have been going down in return. Since it's costing us less to play, well that is giving less to MA and the CLD owners..so I guess that could be the answer. I was just hit kind of hard when the first event started and CLD went down and then the second event started and again CLD return went down even more.

But yes, CLDs are not at 'their all time low' as I stated, just at a all time low being we have an event going on.

 

[forgo]

My guess is that there were a number of regular players liquidating and holding off for moon investment groups to form.

I limited my play in the last few weeks to purchase deeds off of those who did win the moon. Seeing as they had a few thousand that went away fairly quick, it seems I wasn't the only one saving for those assets / taking advantage of the high dollar liquidations.

Now that people get some returns off the liquidated assets, they will probably start playing again at the levels they had been, and with better returns to follow we hope.

 

[chevrons]

BUT...I forgot about the over all cost to play that MA stated they are working on. So this most likely is why CLDs have been going down in return. Since it's costing us less to play, well that is giving less to MA and the CLD owners..so I guess that could be the answer.

No you've got that the wrong way round. If the loot is better, people can play for longer, they pay decay for longer, the ROI on the CLD goes up. If MA turn the loot down, the players lose the same amount, but more of it goes straight to MA as Developer in loot loss and not to MA as PP in decay.

I've actually had better loot for the last few weeks, so if that is general, either fewer people are playing, or they are not on Calypso.

 

[AkiranBlade]

As I said recently, the deeds are nowhere near worth what people have been paying for them. MA drop even more of them into the ocean of loot, they're diluting the return.

Waste of PEDs if you ask me currently. Worth maybe 200-300 in my humble opinion. Wouldn't pay more than that for one.... which likely means I'll never have one

 

[Ludvig|MindArk]

MA drop even more of them into the ocean of loot, they're diluting the return.

They have not dropped any more in loot. The amount of CLD has been the same the entire time. The only difference is that when one is looted it starts being owned by a player instead of being owned by Planet Calypso AB.

Total payout is the same % per deed, only that with each deed that is looted less of it goes back to PCAB and more goes to the player base.

 

[Svarog]

Worth maybe 200-300 in my humble opinion.

200-300 do worth my feodora, but it doesn't bring me additional 4-5 per week CLDs do.

Those in loot are part of the initial 60k batch:

Those of you who missed the chance to acquire deeds will be happy to hear that the Planet Calypso Team has purchased 1000 deeds out of the 60000 in total. These 1000 deeds will be distributed to colonists in various ways. Colonists on Calypso will be able to obtain many of these deeds via normal activities such as hunting, mining and manufacturing. A smaller portion will be distributed as prizes in special events and story lines.

 

[Uvas]

The payouts are just fine with me. They seem to be holding steady.

There does seem to be a little upward pressure on price.

 

[OZtwo]

No you've got that the wrong way round. If the loot is better, people can play for longer, they pay decay for longer, the ROI on the CLD goes up. If MA turn the loot down, the players lose the same amount, but more of it goes straight to MA as Developer in loot loss and not to MA as PP in decay.

I've actually had better loot for the last few weeks, so if that is general, either fewer people are playing, or they are not on Calypso.

Well, I didn't want this to start out as a debate on what the value of the deed itself is worth. All I was asking is if MA may have change how much return we get since return has been way down the last few months from what I have seen from MY return and not second guessing here.

But since we did have a big turn out on both events and in the past I have noted that MY RETURN is always a bit higher when Calypso has a large event (this month we had three big events btw) I just found it very odd that MY RETURNS are lower then normal as if there was no event at all going on. And again, if there was no event going on I would have not posted this question in the first place since a lot of people have noted, it would just be normal.

So at the end,

A) MA changed the return value - most likely no
B) We have a lot less players these days - Not a good sign at all
C) MA's change of the overall value of game play is hitting the CLDs. (Yes, if MA is making less money, we are making less money**)

I would like and hope it would be C here and makes the most sense really.


** In the sort run the ROI of the CLDs will have gone down but in the long run the return will go higher due to more players.

 

[Petrus PM]

Total player investment=money for MA + payout for LA/CLD + loot
More LA/CLD (payout) --> less loot --> less fun playing

Or is my math too simple??