CLD ROI change?

[AxeMurderer]

Total player investment=money for MA + payout for LA/CLD + loot
More LA/CLD (payout) --> less loot --> less fun playing

Or is my math too simple??

no one playing -> 0 LA/CLD payout -> greatest fun

your math is about right

 

[Amar]

CLD returns remain over 20% based on the initial 1000 PED price. This is a very good rate of return for an investment.



I do not agree that we are currently in a downward trend. Trend lines are only appropriate if you actually look for trends to draw them through. Calculating a single linear regression through the entirety of the data tells us very little.

The income has been flat, or possibly a slight upward trend so far for 2013. I think the effect of the current/recent events is to support and stabalise the income, rather than cause a spike due to the drawn-out, on-going nature of these events. In the past we have seen events with short, well-defined timelines produce spikes of higher activity bracketed by troughs of preparation and recovery. It is no surprise that we are not seeing that with the current/ongoing events as they are of a more sustained nature.

The increase in trading value of a CLD is simply a balance of supply and demand. So long as people seek to acquire CLDs the price will creep up due to the fixed numbers in circulation.

CLDs will remain in demand while enough investors consider the rate of income to outweigh the risks of having large amounts of PED tied up in something that is potentially volatile both in terms of the current mechanism for income and the possibility of that mechanism being affected by MA decisions at any time.

In my opinion (assuming there is no drastic and controversial nerf by MA), any downward trend in the trade value of CLDs (for whatever reason) would to some extent be self-correcting in that it would eventually drop prices low enough to make the deeds more appealing to investors and once again start a new upward trend. So I think we should see a cyclic pattern of trends and corrections, rather than any disasterous crashes. Of course, this all relies heavily on the intentions of MA.

 

[FallenAngel]

maybe cld roi is down since folks are visiting other planets? The THING is open again and it's got free oil (not much - about 22 pecs spawned every 4 minutes but it's in a non-lootable pvp zone...) also with TEN going on it's hitting all the planets not just Caly.

this has to be one of the funniest posts i have seen in a while, 22 pecs of free oil every few minutes is the cause of the drop in cld roi? as if people that are scrambling for free oil are otherwise heavily supporting cld revenue, and as for TEN ongoing and "hitting" other planets, i was on ark when TEN hit and, it was dead, i cant put it any other way really but arkadia seemed pretty dead to me.

 

[K-Max]

Really no big loots in mining for like 2 months now = less deposits/PED cycled by hardcore miners.
Not many big (read over 10k) hofs in crafting = people that liked to gamble before don't probably have much of a interest in crafting so less deposits/revenue from there.

Pretty much exactly why I stopped hunting and mining for awhile. I track my returns on most everything I do kind of closely and since Feb they have been the worst since I started tracking almost 2 years ago. This in turn lead me to stop hunting and mining, I have been finding not many want to buy enough materials and resources from the hunts and mining runs at markups high enough to cover the losses, so I found no reason to continue bleeding. I just craft and sell slowly now until something changes with the way this loot has been changed.

 

[Shard-Angel]

Please see my thread HERE for more info about CLD ROI.

 

[Acro]

I replace the original text with something more usefull

 

[Dave Stevens]

Average ROI for 2011 = 21% (based on the small period only)
Average ROI for 2012 = 24%
Average ROI so far for 2013 = 24%

I fail to see the trend you are on about?

 

[DISABLED]

lol check the ROI for the last week... i got 3,89 PEDs per CLD

 

[Joat]

I wonder how many RX-weapons (and similar) that has been used lately.
With the decay that they have, there will be lower value that goes for
PP- and CLDpayout, but a higher value that is cycled in lootsystem,
but question is, have they been used by so many that it will have a notable
impact on the dividend?

 

[Skaffen]

Death Buzz

I thought the current events were to give Deathifier & Buzz a revenue boost due to the Moon being added prior to a player base increase?... not CLD holders.

As pointed out earlier in this thread;- CLD owners get similar returns to LA owners, since LA owners make more than Hunters, Miners etc, the CLD price will suck up extra cashflow until the itamz tt+ is minimal.

 

[Jimmy B]

MA drop even more of them into the ocean of loot, they're diluting the return.

Nah, there's 60000 of them, like there always has been. A small percentage of them were 'bought' by Planet Calypso for loot drops.

Worth maybe 200-300 in my humble opinion.

Really? So far in 1.38 years they've paid out 333.11 PED. If they were purchased at 200-300 PED each that'd be one hell of an investment.

 

[RickEngland]

Nah, there's 60000 of them, like there always has been. A small percentage of them were 'bought' by Planet Calypso for loot drops.

If I was MA I be buying them back from auction, and hope those peds are burned in game. The original purchase did it's job, and so did resales as long as they were bought with depos.

If the trend with current sales is made with in-game made peds, then the original purpose has come to it's conclusion.

We will never know how many still exist in game, although if there were 60K of them floating around, I would expect a lot more CLD resale than we currently see. Which begs the question, are MA buying them back on the quiet.

Not anti CLD, just a comment with a Commerical expertise hate on.

Rick

 

[Luckycharm]

I'm pretty sure the ROI will climb again. Such fluctuations are perhaps great to obtain some more deeds at lower rates than a previous buy ;p

 

[Jimmy B]

We will never know how many still exist in game, although if there were 60K of them floating around, I would expect a lot more CLD resale than we currently see. Which begs the question, are MA buying them back on the quiet.

Not anti CLD, just a comment with a Commerical expertise hate on.

OK, that's possible. My point was more that there is no dilution happening. If MA were to buy some back (I don't see any problem with that, although I'm not so convinced they would want to at this point), the remaining ones would be unaffected anyway.

 

[Farmer Smurf]

CLD returns remain over 20% based on the initial 1000 PED price. This is a very good rate of return for an investment.

perhaps it would be acceptable, if MA had not advertised it as a 30% ROI investment. basically 10% of the investment was simply stolen as "false advertising, and clever marketing"

Sure its a variable, but MA had all the years of data, and some skilled number crunchers at work, they fully knew ahead of time what the average payout would be...and its no where near 30%

 

[Harmony.]

perhaps it would be acceptable, if MA had not advertised it as a 30% ROI investment. basically 10% of the investment was simply stolen as "false advertising, and clever marketing"

Sure its a variable, but MA had all the years of data, and some skilled number crunchers at work, they fully knew ahead of time what the average payout would be...and its no where near 30%

Maybe you should reread what was said back when the CLD were released. I'm afraid you've twisted the information that was given back then into something like what you wrote in my quote. They said that based on previous returns those returns were possible. If you had paid attention at that time you would have known that new planets (arkadia/cyrene) would come into the mix potentially greatly decreasing the expected returns of CLD.

Frankly i'm amazed people put in real life money to invest into a game, without considering all aspects.

 

[Farmer Smurf]

I did, I do, still though it pisses me off its not hitting 30% though I guess its par for the course with MA

their advertisements to sell the cld were purposefully misleading saying expected returns would be 30% when all along everyone knew that had to be BS. I guess part of me just wanted to believe..

 

[AkiranBlade]

Nah, there's 60000 of them, like there always has been. A small percentage of them were 'bought' by Planet Calypso for loot drops.



Really? So far in 1.38 years they've paid out 333.11 PED. If they were purchased at 200-300 PED each that'd be one hell of an investment.

Isn't that point the point of an 'investement'.

 

[AkiranBlade]

Isn't that point the point of an 'investement'.

In business terms your supposed to aim for an ROI of about two years or less. So you would be achieving that with a valuation of 300ped per CLD.

This is not something you can liken to interests in banks (which has been said elsewhere.) This is high risk. Super high when you consider the royal shafting to long term participants who have deposited way too much over the years to get very, very little back in terms of appreciation for their custom. That lack of appreciation is more likely to dwindle the revenue day to day generated by those CLDs.

 

[aridash]

If I was MA I be buying them back from auction, and hope those peds are burned in game. The original purchase did it's job, and so did resales as long as they were bought with depos.

If the trend with current sales is made with in-game made peds, then the original purpose has come to it's conclusion.

We will never know how many still exist in game, although if there were 60K of them floating around, I would expect a lot more CLD resale than we currently see. Which begs the question, are MA buying them back on the quiet.

Not anti CLD, just a comment with a Commerical expertise hate on.

Rick

not discounting the possibility of MA or another buying on the quiet, but this analysis seems to overlook the large single buyer and many holders of large numbers. more to the point, one of the original objectives was for future landgrab and house building which would require block of 9. if we say theres 50000 available (after the large holder is removed, i cant recall the amount he holds), that leaves ceiling of 5555 9 deed holders. thats about 1/5th-1/6th the user base by some (admitedly) outdated estimates. more factors involved, especailly if wearing their commercial expertise hate

 

[Jimmy B]

In business terms your supposed to aim for an ROI of about two years or less. So you would be achieving that with a valuation of 300ped per CLD.

This is not something you can liken to interests in banks (which has been said elsewhere.) This is high risk. Super high when you consider the royal shafting to long term participants who have deposited way too much over the years to get very, very little back in terms of appreciation for their custom. That lack of appreciation is more likely to dwindle the revenue day to day generated by those CLDs.

I personally think it's more like a high-risk stock investment (moderately high anyway - invest in bitcoins if you want high risk ). A consistent 50%+ per year would be pretty spectacular, but it all depends on what you judge the risk to be. I don't buy the comparison to a business at all. Businesses involve work, CLDs you just sit on.

 

[Uvas]

In business terms your supposed to aim for an ROI of about two years or less. So you would be achieving that with a valuation of 300ped per CLD.

This is not something you can liken to interests in banks (which has been said elsewhere.) This is high risk. Super high when you consider the royal shafting to long term participants who have deposited way too much over the years to get very, very little back in terms of appreciation for their custom. That lack of appreciation is more likely to dwindle the revenue day to day generated by those CLDs.

2 Years!!!! That's 50%

I would love to see your portfolio.

I am estatic with the 15% I've been averaging the last few years.

And like Jimmy said, CLD's are an investment, not a business. A business in EU might be buying skills and a good fap and offering a healing service. Or something like that.

 

[ALEXANDER]

In business terms your supposed to aim for an ROI of about two years or less. So you would be achieving that with a valuation of 300ped per CLD.

This is not something you can liken to interests in banks (which has been said elsewhere.) This is high risk. Super high when you consider the royal shafting to long term participants who have deposited way too much over the years to get very, very little back in terms of appreciation for their custom. That lack of appreciation is more likely to dwindle the revenue day to day generated by those CLDs.

You really don't know a lot about investments, do you ?

 

[Wollongong]

In business terms your supposed to aim for an ROI of about two years or less. So you would be achieving that with a valuation of 300ped per CLD.

In business terms, you are confusing the concept of ROI with earn-back-period.

 

[AkiranBlade]

I personally think it's more like a high-risk stock investment (moderately high anyway - invest in bitcoins if you want high risk ). A consistent 50%+ per year would be pretty spectacular, but it all depends on what you judge the risk to be. I don't buy the comparison to a business at all. Businesses involve work, CLDs you just sit on.

Fair point I guess. Still not worth the risk imho. But that's just me.