It is wrong, u can't make the arithmetic mean, you should computes a weighted average..
It was just about predicting that MA needs a share about 5%, so the return rate across the universe should be at about 95%.
Then I just took into account that they said that loot returns are mostly dependent on loot input, and weapon efficiency has a 7% influence on loot returns, which I translated into something like this:
Imagine something like (obviously oversimplified): loot_return = kill_costs * (92.5 + efficiency/10)%, resuling in 92.5% return rate at 0% efficiency and 99.5% return rate at 100% efficiency.
So just applied a +/- 3.5% to the 95%, resulting the 91-92% to 98-99%; obviously, I never said distribution was linear; most likely there are a lot of players (with relative low cycling values) on the lower part of the spectrum and just a few whales (not saying in a bad way) with high efficiency and lots of spendings on the top of the spectrum.
Then, with almost every single log I had access to (either being posted on forums or got it from people I know in game) they kinda followed in this model: almost everyone was about 91-92% and below 98-99%; the highly efficient people were above 95%, the less efficient players below 95%; the people that used to get better than 99% return rates saw a drop, the people that used to get lower than 91% returns saw an increase.
Now MA comes and publish the very same numbers: ~95% for general average and ~98% for the top players (sure, they didn't said top players, they just said big grinders, but I guess we agree that the people cycling 100,000k+ PEDs in less than a month are generally exactly the top players), which is exactly where I placed them in my model. They not only publish these numbers, but they also say that they are very close to where they expected them to be (so working as intended).
So yeah, I think I can safely say that my vision about what MA tries to achieve was spot on and that my suppositions were (almost entirely) confirmed by the numbers provided by MA. If you still don't see it or if you (not you in this case) continue to say that all I say is wrong because I don't have the budget to hunt myself and only theorize, even after all my "philosophical theories" proved right, I can't help it.
Anyway, since all I (afford to) do is swunting (and enjoying), I don't really care about what happens with hunting; as long as they give me 50%+ return rates (and that is something I can swear will always happen) so I can cover the loses from the sweat price I'm all good.
For me, all these loot 2.0 theorizings were representing just an intellectual exercise and all the posting on forums in this period represented sheer enjoyment (caused mainly by a lack of debate club in my school/town), which probably somehow borderlines with trolling - lol. Anyway, I'm really happy to see my numbers confirmed and (at least in my vision) won the debate argumentation. For now (probably 'till I'll get bored again in a few days)... DoA over'n'out.