An interesting discussion. One point which occurred to me:
It was said above, that random loot is most likely, primarily because it's the simplest to implement.
It's a close run thing whether this is actually easier than tracking amount spent by player (ie removed from inventory or decayed off items - all of which are tracked from shot to shot, so you can see them - try hunting with inv open - your ammo goes down). If you track amount spent by each player, it's trivial to generate a cumulative sum of loot awarded less amount spent, and hence award loot based on whether the player is in credit or debit.
But leaving that aside, I think the biggest argument against random loot is monkeys with typewriters.
Essentially, if loot is totally random, there is a chance that one month, because it's random, loots may total more than the entire amount of loot paid in total so far in EU. It's not very likely, but it could happen, if loots were random - that is what totally random means - there is a chance of any outcome. But MA would then be panicking. This is a real risk, and for a business, not a chance to take.
So if there is a random element, it is surely just that - an element. Other factors to limit the high and low loots must also exist. Limit high lots so that MA does not go bust. Limit low loots, so players do not leave.
Marketing psychology is one of the most sophisticated areas of business, and it does not take long (eg staff of 10 and 2 weeks) to come up with a clever algorithm which keeps people entertained and hooked just enough with rewards, so you maximise your profits. It's certainly a lot quicker to do that than create all the 3d graphics and eye-candy we see in EU.
MA are a business, and let's face it we want them to stay around, or EU would disappear. I am quite sure that while they may not get everything right, one thing they get totally right these days is watching their profit, and I'm glad of it.
So my guess is that the loot algorithm is very clever, perhaps one of the most complex parts of EU, and designed very carefully to keep players as happy as possible while not giving away the crown jewels.
This is an intelligent guess - it's what I would do, but I have no idea if it does work like this.
Personally, I am quite happy with the loot payout I get. If I wasn't I would change my playing tactic. If that didn't help, I would stop playing. I mean we play EU for fun right (apart from those who have invested to make a business out of it). If it's not fun, do it differently or stop doing it? Seems like a no-brainer surely?
Edit: and spot on Hally, you've said in 2 lines what it took me 2 pages :S
Haha!
