Does Avataar Luck really Exist!! A non believer starts believing :(

[Divinity]

bla bla bla

You have written an essay without even bothering to get the facts right.

Your words speak more about your ignorance, then the agenda you came to view the thread with.

HEIGHTS OF HYPOCRISY :

Wow, shouldn't have read this thread.

And then the essay begins.

PS : I would suggest you read what the thread is about, what are the special circumstances we are considering and then make a non biased judgement , and please dont give us the MA PR crap. We are not here to support all the wrongs in the game. Despite the fact that i probably have at least double your investment in game, I am ready to point fingers at MA where i believe they are wrong.

 

[Soradin]

Big long post whining... .about whining?

Wouldn't it have made more sense simply not to post?

 

[Om3n]

You have written an essay without even bothering to get the facts right.

Your words speak more about your ignorance, then the agenda you came to view the thread with.

HEIGHTS OF HYPOCRISY : And then the essay begins.

Well first off you need a better grasp of the English language. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hypocrisy

Also agenda? Use the word right. Casue you know i came viewing a thread with an agenda lol

If your going to quote, you might as well do it correctly. As well as I'd love to see the ignorance of that, i wont bother posting the dictionary link on that as you've got the site with the first one. If you can navigate around here you SHOULD be able to manage that as well.

You must be one of the people i was referring to in my previous post. Sorry to hurt your epeen I love how you had to make an insignificant post in an attempt to hurt my feelings or whatever your agenda may have been when you wrote the post to flame me.

 

[Om3n]

Wouldn't it have made more sense simply not to post?

I could say the same thing

 

[Divinity]

Well first off you need a better grasp of the English language. http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hypocrisy

Also agenda? Use the word right. Casue you know i came viewing a thread with an agenda lol

If your going to quote, you might as well do it correctly. As well as I'd love to see the ignorance of that, i wont bother posting the dictionary link on that as you've got the site with the first one. If you can navigate around here you SHOULD be able to manage that as well.

You must be one of the people i was referring to in my previous post. Sorry to hurt your epeen I love how you had to make an insignificant post in an attempt to hurt my feelings or whatever your agenda may have been when you wrote the post to flame me.

While i don't really care whom u were or not referring to and whether i was included or not, my statement is based on the garbage you spilled onto the thread.

And Yes, hypocrisy and agenda were both used correctly, however i don't have the patience to tutor you in English. Perhaps going back to school would put your time to better use.

Lastly, you dint hurt anything as all my remarks are based on what you have written. I hold no personal grudges towards you and would probably say "Hello" if we met in game.

Again, i would say read up first. A reply then would seem sensible.

 

[wizzszz]

However , a friend of mine ( wont mention names) tells me that everytime he goes mining he gets close to or above 100% tt returns on calypso. I sent him to mine rocktropia and he complained of bad returns (60% or so) and came back fast . I was surprised when he said that he hardly gets below 100% tt returns on his runs on Calypso and its been that way since a year. This was yesterday and so i did a bit of digging as i became a bit curious.

If you lose a shitload of peds in crafting (preferably on quality) in a short timeframe and go mining right after you will of course have high returns... if you track only the mining results you will end up with overwhelmingly good results.


Don't believe everything people tell you, they tend to tell you only the "omg really?" part of the story and skip the parts that would explain why and that they are not kinda special or MAs favourite player - star did this long ago, too...

*yawn*

Just ask your friend if (s)he still deposits...

 

[Divinity]

If you lose a shitload of peds in crafting (preferably on quality) in a short timeframe and go mining right after you will of course have high returns... if you track only the mining results you will end up with overwhelmingly good results.


Don't believe everything people tell you, they tend to tell you only the "omg really?" part of the story and skip the parts that would explain why and that they are not kinda special or MAs favourite player - star did this long ago, too...

*yawn*

Just ask your friend if (s)he still deposits...

That's the thing, he doesn't. At least according to him he only deposited once when he couldn't sell his ores fast enough, and the second time when i sent him to rock. This was besides his initial deposit.

 

[wizzszz]

That's the thing, he doesn't. At least according to him he only deposited once when he couldn't sell his ores fast enough, and the second time when i sent him to rock. This was besides his initial deposit.

The losing streak on RT made him deposit?

Seriously, with 100% TT return (and he claims more than 100%) and the markup on the finds he should have big fat PEd card...

Unless... your friend is fairly new... maybe he doesn't know that there is a difference between return including markup and TT return.

 

[Soradin]

In the end..... as I've posted in many such threads...

There is loot.


People get it.


Why?


Have fun!

 

[Divinity]

The losing streak on RT made him deposit?

Seriously, with 100% TT return (and he claims more than 100%) and the markup on the finds he should have big fat PEd card...

Unless... your friend is fairly new... maybe he doesn't know that there is a difference between return including markup and TT return.

Well i had suggested a long run on Rock and that is what he deposited for , and he got approx 60% tt return in the trip. The reason i suggested rock was for MU , which he had not been targeting before and if u don't target MU , even with 100% tt return you are pretty much stuck with what u deposited. He also has got in game investments i believe.

 

[MIND]

In the end..... as I've posted in many such threads...

There is loot.


People get it.


Why?


Have fun!

LIKE A BOSS

 

[Zacariaz]

that's 1 out of 1024 and no i haven't tried but the real question is , how many have actually succeeded in doing so without a rigged coin.

Yes it's 1024, but it don't sound as good

anyway, I didn't mean that we all have succeeded in this particular endeavour. Maybe you have survived a significant blow to the head (I'm quite sure some on this forum have), maybe you have rolled four dices, all sixes, maybe you had twins, won the lottery or whatever.

In any case I've made my point. We have all tried being lucky, although it may not always be the positive kind of luck.

 

[Infinity01]

And next you will say that those who get generally good, much above the average returns are also covered by your disclaimers, because they are not part of the "general populace"?

You cannot say that some avatars are targeted for huge payouts and at the same time say that people pay for their own hofs. You also cannot say that and that everybody will receive 90% back. You also cannot say that the system is based on 90% returns. You also cannot say that avatars are equal.

yes, i can say all of the above and still be valid... you need to be more granular......nuanced.

MA can give an avatar high MU items and still give 90% TT value in the longer term!

MA gives uber HOF to a noob to increase rentention rate...MA just hopes that those noobs are not withdrawing..

I got my 24k HOF when i was 4 months old..... and i had bad loot afterwards.. So MA took back all of it... within 2 months or less!

I don't think MA treat all avatars as equal.... other than 90% TT return rate in the longer term....

Within the frame work of 90% TT return... MA can do ... and i'm sure doing a lot of irregular things... for which they use the phrase "loot is dynamic"


I see Narfi is on this thread.... and reminded me of Hunt the thing:
we were in a team of about 7 players and hunting the "the Thing" At some point we spotted some high maturity hunt the thing and decided to go after them... I"m sure their HP were arround 3 to 4k. We were expecting nice loot...

But guess what we hunted in total 4 or 5 those high maturity mobs.. dying many times for each kill... and all of them were no looter...

My imppresion was it couldn't be a random thing... 4 or 5 mobs with that HP to be No looter in serial!!
It had to be somehow coded in the program.... I told narfi about it.. He simpley answered paraphrasing "do not manufacture things out of your mind" ....lol..

But here was my thinking at that time...

I guess MA wanted to take peds out of existing players, and give them to new players joining the game arround that time... to increase their retention...

And sure enough, I met a noob. who was doing missions... I helped the noob.... the noob got in total about 10 peds profit after doing all the missions before jumping into the hole.

the noob bought a shotgun.or whatever was best in the TT there.. i suggested for that... I fapped the noob while shooting for the final "hunt the thing".... and the same noob got about 20 peds out of the mob....

So, I'm linking these 2 events together.

MA took peds from older players who can afford to hunt high maturity mobs.... and gave those peds to a new player to increase retention...

you may or may not accept my explanation... but that's what i continue to believe... and I think it's a good decision by MA

And no wonder... after that "hunt the thing" the player base at RT has increased!

 

[wizzszz]

4 or 5 mobs with that HP to be No looter in serail!!

Nice freudian slip...

I told narfi about it.. He simpley answered paraphrasing "do not manufacture things out of your mind" ....lol..

Yeah, that's narfi... he's like that to everyone who joined EU after him.

So, I'm linking these 2 events together.

Why? There is absolutely no reason to do that.



And in general:
You're not the first one to come up with this - Marco said "There is no luck involved" ages ago.

 

[Infinity01]

Originally Posted by Infinity014 or 5 mobs with that HP to be No looter in serail!!

Nice freudian slip...

LOL, looks like your brain is very primed/conditioned to catch those slips

 

[MsPudding]

This thread is getting way off topic. It needs the attention of a moderator or something...

*On Topic*

My own belief is that no certain avatar is more or less programmed with "luck" than any other avatar upon creation. I'd like to think anyone has a fair shot at the ATH's and really Uber HOF's in the game, its about being in the right place at the right time. I'd highly doubt certain avatars are programmed to be paid out in a 1-2 year window, or a 3-4 year window. It may play out that way for some people, and some people may never get a fraction of what they put in the game.

I could be wrong, but its my current belief that anyone can take a share of the pie.

In reflection, for this game to work there has to be losers. There are going to be winners, and there are going to be losers. For this company and this game to continue to operate there are costs. In the end there has to be more losers than winners to pay for those costs. We all deposit money in hopes that we may fall into the winners category, and we can hope to have fun along the way. I've had high times and low times like anyone else on here, but the important thing is I've had fun. I think anyone has a chance at hitting something big, they just have to be playing and cycling PEDs to be there... It may come, it may never come, but I don't think there's some sort of "black list" where players don't have a chance to win it at all.

Big GZ to the 'un-named' avatar who sparked the topic discussion. Some interesting ideas on this, subscribing.

 

[gtphanta]

Globals and hofs don't really mean a profit...

I rejoined the game a month ago, and have deposited $500 total.

I've thus far spent over 100 Ped on mining, and got an 87 ped global, however my total mining return was only 89ped (which seems about right).

I've had 5 or so hunting globals, max was 104 Ped, but have lost much more than I've gained.
Overall my hunting return is far less than 90%, even on a hunt where I global, it only goes up to about 90%...
Checking return on most hunts, it's about 60% (after counting decay on A104, EP40 and Ghost Armour).

I always lose at the casino too... but it's not as much fun.

 

[Joat]

I don't call it luck, I call it gamemechanism. Basics are the same for everyone,
the difference is the ability to find out what works. Could be a darn boring thing
to do thou'...

 

[Soradin]

I Basics are the same for everyone, the difference is the ability to find out what works.

Prove it.





Never mind.... you can't.


We can only make assumptions, or speculations.

 

[Miles]

Any good coach will tell you "Luck favors the well prepared."

Now, if a person can truly be lucky IRL, there is no reason that their luck should not carry over into EU - without any programmed "luck" factor in EU. Then blaming MA for bad luck is misdirected, when it should really be directed at whatever higher power handles luck for you IRL.

As for the patterns and coincidences and odd occurrences - that's what happens when a large number of events occur in a random-ish system. The odds of someone being "lucky" are essentially 100% - it's odds of it being you that are so small. Somebody is always winning the lottery, right? How often is it you? (Well, I don't buy any tickets so it's never me - but you get the point.)



Miles

 

[Sunsout Gunsout]

Testing the theory....

Hey everyone...I read the forums a lot but never post, however this thread made me sign up. I think I have an extremely faulty way to test the "is an avatar born with luck" hypothesis, but would like input on how I should proceed.

Facts:
Month's ago my gf's son created a character. He was geared with all decent noob items courtesy of me. He played only for a week or so. On the 3rd or 4th day, we were team hunting on Arkadia (just us 2). We flew out to the Jori NW of Santuary Cove. After landing, I began sorting inventory and getting a few things ready for our Jori hunt. My gf's son kills a couple jori by himself (cuz I was busy) and the 3rd one Hof's for about 4k ped. He did all the damage, so the loot went to him. (when he stopped playing I had to buy him off with a some PS3 games and a few trips to his favorite restaurants

This character still exists. It might be a one time Noob HOF or is he a "lucky" character?

My character: In a little over 1.5 years I have deposited more the $10k and today I barely have $1k in items on my avatar (plus skills). All I do is lose. (I am L38 sniper, 30 Miner, 23 Attacment engineer are the highest of each category...chipped in about 2000 ped max) I have no idea why I keep playing, but it is probably because the fun outweighs the money I dropped.

Anyways, his character has not been played since that time about 6 months ago. This thread got me thinking: If I can convince him to start playing again, is there a way I can see if his avatar is luckier than mine. If I wear the same stuff, shoot the same stuff with the same guns as him, keep track of the returns, over time...a long time, would it give us any relevant data? I tend to think no...if the game does in fact balance itself, then I am due for a hot streak, and he is due for a cold streak, and that would throw off the returns. However, I believe the system would have a hard time balancing my overall losses on my avatar during a 2 month exarosaur grind if we indeed tried to calculate the differences between our characters.

I am not trying to prove the exitence of luck so no need to point that out. I know there are many, many flaws and influences in a lot of this. But I mostly wanted to look to you guys and gals to see if there was a good way to utilize him and my's avatars and record the experience to see if ANY info can be obtained.

It will cost me a bunch of dinners at the Golden Corral to get him to start playing again (I cant find the puking smiley face) but i am sure I can convince him. So then what? It seems like a lot of work. Probably best if you tell me to shut up and go away

 

[Sibolovin]

Be interesting to see if you can get him to play again if he is lucky. Offer to buy him pizza for tea if plays for a bit

 

[Joat]

Prove it.





Never mind.... you can't.


We can only make assumptions, or speculations.

Or trust MA, but that is hard to do sometimes, I guess.
Not sure what to prove thou', since there is no need to create a system
that gives "luck" for some few, when system is based on understanding
the gamemechanism, and utilise that.
Ask any of those that are successful and don't depo, if they play based
on "luck" or their own knowledge of gamemechanism (I already have,
I know what answer would be from some.)
Still no 100% proof thou'.

 

[Divinity]

There is a plan to prove/disprove at least the knowledge bit.

Test Case : Get the lucky avataar's mom/dad/son/gf/etc (*cough*) etc or whatever to start playing under complete supervision (*cough*) and then we can see whether the same person can actually get similar results or not. If he cannot, then i would at least remove the knowledge quotient away from the prognosis.

This thread can now be considered WIP , will update with results when i get some indication.

Note : An ava like mine , i cannot test because the probability of getting a "lucky" one is lesser and as such makes sense for someone who has got good returns to test it out.

 

[Divinity]

Hey everyone...I read the forums a lot but never post, however this thread made me sign up. I think I have an extremely faulty way to test the "is an avatar born with luck" hypothesis, but would like input on how I should proceed.

Facts:
Month's ago my gf's son created a character. He was geared with all decent noob items courtesy of me. He played only for a week or so. On the 3rd or 4th day, we were team hunting on Arkadia (just us 2). We flew out to the Jori NW of Santuary Cove. After landing, I began sorting inventory and getting a few things ready for our Jori hunt. My gf's son kills a couple jori by himself (cuz I was busy) and the 3rd one Hof's for about 4k ped. He did all the damage, so the loot went to him. (when he stopped playing I had to buy him off with a some PS3 games and a few trips to his favorite restaurants

This character still exists. It might be a one time Noob HOF or is he a "lucky" character?

My character: In a little over 1.5 years I have deposited more the $10k and today I barely have $1k in items on my avatar (plus skills). All I do is lose. (I am L38 sniper, 30 Miner, 23 Attacment engineer are the highest of each category...chipped in about 2000 ped max) I have no idea why I keep playing, but it is probably because the fun outweighs the money I dropped.

Anyways, his character has not been played since that time about 6 months ago. This thread got me thinking: If I can convince him to start playing again, is there a way I can see if his avatar is luckier than mine. If I wear the same stuff, shoot the same stuff with the same guns as him, keep track of the returns, over time...a long time, would it give us any relevant data? I tend to think no...if the game does in fact balance itself, then I am due for a hot streak, and he is due for a cold streak, and that would throw off the returns. However, I believe the system would have a hard time balancing my overall losses on my avatar during a 2 month exarosaur grind if we indeed tried to calculate the differences between our characters.

I am not trying to prove the exitence of luck so no need to point that out. I know there are many, many flaws and influences in a lot of this. But I mostly wanted to look to you guys and gals to see if there was a good way to utilize him and my's avatars and record the experience to see if ANY info can be obtained.

It will cost me a bunch of dinners at the Golden Corral to get him to start playing again (I cant find the puking smiley face) but i am sure I can convince him. So then what? It seems like a lot of work. Probably best if you tell me to shut up and go away

While the testing condition is good, i personally dont consider a single instance of uber loot as "luck" by design. It is too circumstantial. Someone profiting on tt over a period like a year or so however in my books, needs to be understood.

Wish you the best with your experimentation. Do update us with your findings.

 

[TheLastKnight]

I personally believe in "lucky" avatars.

When I first started playing, I was considered lucky, globalling/hoffing often. I'd have Society mates comment on my apparent "luck". I even met strangers who told me that their experience, although much longer than mine, weren't as lucky as I was. Then my avatar luck crashed and I figured it was pure coincidence that I was lucky.

Fast forward 2 years, and I invite my friend to play. Within the first 3 months, I considered him to be a lucky avatar. His largest mining hof surpassed mine...although I dumped thousands into mining 2 years prior, and used significantly larger amps. Then he surpasses my crafting by a whopping +17k ped....on a BP that I crafted religiously for the 2 years I was playing. All this with a substantially lower depo history and amount.

I've been at awe with his luck and a bit disappointed. Apparently MA doesn't recognize a person and their spending habits or skill in game, only a system that randomly rewards avatars based on their "luck" (my observation).

EDIT: forgot to add...I think that being "new" to the game automatically increases your LUCK skill and the further you progress, it runs out and you're just another depositer for MA and the odds are against you.

 

[Infinity01]

I personally believe in "lucky" avatars.

When I first started playing, I was considered lucky, globalling/hoffing often. I'd have Society mates comment on my apparent "luck". I even met strangers who told me that their experience, although much longer than mine, weren't as lucky as I was. Then my avatar luck crashed and I figured it was pure coincidence that I was lucky.

Exactny same experience here

I personally believe in "lucky" avatars.
EDIT: forgot to add...I think that being "new" to the game automatically increases your LUCK skill and the further you progress, it runs out and you're just another depositer for MA and the odds are against you.

The red text I don't believe in!

But the text after EDIT, I do believe in that.. it's coded in the system to favor new players.. especially if you are a depositor...Later not so much...

Only way to get better outcome after you reach mid level is via making best use of your knowledge and skills.... Other wise the system is going to just drain your money... which is fine as long as you balance it wiht your budget/entertainment..

I also think that MA do some favors to the extremely heavy grinders... coz IMP they are the engines of EU to convert deposited peds for MAs revenues..here also i think it's a fair game!

 

[Sunsout Gunsout]

While the testing condition is good, i personally dont consider a single instance of uber loot as "luck" by design. It is too circumstantial.

I agree...at this point, all it is so far is one of the "Noob-that-ubers" acoounts. The truth is, in the short time he played, I didn't even pay attention to the other returns he had (primarily b/c we spent most of the time dropping our Valk's off on the top of random mountains and racing to see who could get to the teleporter first without crashing )

But not that many totally new accounts hit one 4k+ so I am curious to see what happens when he continues. He is gonna start playing it again, and is excited to be part of an "experiment" lol. I am going to strictly monitor him and keep track of all the runs, for as long as I can. It will take a lot of time, but I think it would be interesting to see the "dynamics" of a noob-looters returns or even if in fact his character is "lucky". I'll figure out a plan soon and post it here...If this is in the wrong place, someone let me know, and/or move it where you want.

I will post his avatars stats soon, and if anyone has suggestions on the stuff I should be having him do/hunt while I am monitoring him, lmk.

 

[Trina Xenophage]

I agree...at this point, all it is so far is one of the "Noob-that-ubers" acoounts. The truth is, in the short time he played, I didn't even pay attention to the other returns he had (primarily b/c we spent most of the time dropping our Valk's off on the top of random mountains and racing to see who could get to the teleporter first without crashing )

But not that many totally new accounts hit one 4k+ so I am curious to see what happens when he continues. He is gonna start playing it again, and is excited to be part of an "experiment" lol. I am going to strictly monitor him and keep track of all the runs, for as long as I can. It will take a lot of time, but I think it would be interesting to see the "dynamics" of a noob-looters returns or even if in fact his character is "lucky". I'll figure out a plan soon and post it here...If this is in the wrong place, someone let me know, and/or move it where you want.

I will post his avatars stats soon, and if anyone has suggestions on the stuff I should be having him do/hunt while I am monitoring him, lmk.

I think he will see pretty much the same as has been for many years.
He started with gear you bought him...not enough skill to use..not good on eco yet and cycled decent ped keeping up with you in teams. He eventually got paid back for such a practice as is standard programming for EU.
As he progresses further and skills more the avg loot will stablize a little more with less and less ubers coming.
Once he hits roughly level 15 this "noob luck" will cease and he will be subject to the same extended periods of shit with a short period of catch up. Depending on how fast he does this and how much he cycles will determine if his catch up loots meet or exceed the investment to get there.

This how it has been with ANYONE starting out that I have had contact with since joining myself included. The difference between avatars is simply the ability to sustain massive ped cycling for extended periods to get to the catch up phase. It has been that way since roughly VU9.3 when all the big changes started and EU coverted to a money in vs ped out structure and got further away from a skills based algrythm.

 

[Sunsout Gunsout]

I think he will see pretty much the same as has been for many years.
He started with gear you bought him...not enough skill to use..not good on eco yet and cycled decent ped keeping up with you in teams. He eventually got paid back for such a practice as is standard programming for EU.

As he progresses further and skills more the avg loot will stablize a little more with less and less ubers coming.
Once he hits roughly level 15 this "noob luck" will cease and he will be subject to the same extended periods of shit with a short period of catch up. Depending on how fast he does this and how much he cycles will determine if his catch up loots meet or exceed the investment to get there.

This how it has been with ANYONE starting out that I have had contact with since joining myself included. The difference between avatars is simply the ability to sustain massive ped cycling for extended periods to get to the catch up phase. It has been that way since roughly VU9.3 when all the big changes started and EU coverted to a money in vs ped out structure and got further away from a skills based algrythm.

I agree with you on all this. The only difference is in this case: at the time he had played about a total of 4-5 hours, and though he had decent armor for a noob, he was only using an opalo and couldn't have spent more than 100-150 ped in ammo. But that's probably irrelevant. The cycle will still work it out like you stated. IMHO there isn't "lucky" avatars, and I 100% agree on your analysis of the differences between avatars.