Entropia Directory CLD Report 25/11/2013

[Amar]

Entropia Directory CLD Report 25/11/2013

Calypso Land Deeds

• 22.33% return 2012/13
• 223.32 PED per CLD

Monday 25th November 2013 saw the 104th CLD payout and marked the second full year since the introduction of Calypso Land Deeds at the end of 2011. This latest payout was 4.15 PED, making the total payout for 2012/13 223.32 PED (based on a participant owning 1 single CLD - there is some rounding down that will cause those with large number of CLDs to get a few extra PEC).

The return for this year was 22.33% based on the original CLD price of 1000 PED. Although, during the year the CLD resale price has ranged from 1180 PED to 1560 PED and ends the year somewhere around the 1480 PED mark. The overall trend for the year is a stable high return, with a September/October dip, producing a very shallow downward gradient.

As I stated in a previous article, the value of a CLD is simply a balance of supply and demand. For this reason any drop in price should be self-correcting as investors take advantage of the lower prices as an opportunity to buy. I believe in the last few months we have seen this in action. CLD resale prices fell from their 1550 peak in september/October to around 1430 in November. At the end of November there is increased buying activity and CLD prices are already back to around 1480 or more.

Comparison to 2011/12

• 22.33% (223.32 PED) 2012/13
• 24.18% (241.81 PED) 2011/12

The return of 223.32 PED or 22.332% is slightly lower, but generally similar to the return of 241.81 PED or 24.181% for the previous year. Individual payouts for 2012/13 were less erratic than the previous year, which may be due to the ongoing 10th anniversary events. But, with so many factors being relatively new (new planets, ongoing events and the CLDs themselves) it is hard to speculate on the reason for this.

Overall

• 46.51% return to date
• 465.13 PED
• Time to return (1000 PED): 4.3 years

When all the data is combined we see a return of 465.13 PED or 46.51% over 2 years, averaging to 232.565 or 23.25% per year. Based on these averages the time-to-return (based on original CLD price of 1000 PED) is 4.3 years.

Conclusion
As with all investments, there is an element of risk to CLDs and participants should only invest if they are comfortable with that risk.
As with all things EU, the perceived value of an item is affected by participant activity and can also be directly affected by decisions made by Mindark.
All that said, with the returns we have seen to date and the potential future land rights and voting aspects, I believe CLDs continue to be a stable, relatively high return investment opportunity.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1JkV_z0RY1xIcHkrhF4otpkzu7XMaEvV6kRdtREHyB54/edit?usp=sharing

 

[Harmony.]

very nice analysis, well done!

 

[tamlin]

The overall trend for the year is a stable high return

I strongly disagree with that assertion.

For starters it would IMNSHO have to be closer to the higher end of the projection range stated by the original sellers (MA, projecting 27%-30%), i.e. over 28.5%.

Secondly, both the 3-month and 6-month average have for the last ten consecutive weeks been at an all-time-low, only "recovering" a tiny amount in the last 2-3 payouts:

The 3 month average has "recovered" from 19.39% three weeks ago to 19.96%.
The 6 month average has "recovered" from 20.86% three weeks ago to 21.18%.

CLD weekly payouts have only ONCE (*) even reached the lower projection of 27%, new years eve 2012 (2012-12-31) - that is one single data-point in over 100, i.e. it's more of a statistical anomaly.

Neither the 3 month- nor the 6-month average have ever (*) been above 25%.

I therefore claim that calling this "stable high return" is at best a report out-of-context, or at worst an attempt at history revisionism. Payouts have neither been stable (fluctuations of over 100%) nor high during 2013. The truth is that CLD returns have never (*) even reached the minimum projection.

(*) Counted from the time all CLD's were sold, and payouts started to stabilize - i.e. around July 2012.

 

[TiveXO]

I strongly disagree with that assertion.

For starters it would IMNSHO have to be closer to the higher end of the projection range stated by the original sellers (MA, projecting 27%-30%), i.e. over 28.5%.

Secondly, both the 3-month and 6-month average have for the last ten consecutive weeks been at an all-time-low, only "recovering" a tiny amount in the last 2-3 payouts:

The 3 month average has "recovered" from 19.39% three weeks ago to 19.96%.
The 6 month average has "recovered" from 20.86% three weeks ago to 21.18%.

CLD weekly payouts have only ONCE (*) even reached the lower projection of 27%, new years eve 2012 (2012-12-31) - that is one single data-point in over 100, i.e. it's more of a statistical anomaly.

Neither the 3 month- nor the 6-month average have ever (*) been above 25%.

I therefore claim that calling this "stable high return" is at best a report out-of-context, or at worst an attempt at history revisionism. Payouts have neither been stable (fluctuations of over 100%) nor high during 2013. The truth is that CLD returns have never (*) even reached the minimum projection.

(*) Counted from the time all CLD's were sold, and payouts started to stabilize - i.e. around July 2012.

well all this data are adressed on a CLD-price of 1000ped.

If you look on current prices for CLD all this data need be corrected down.
1450 / 100 = 14.5 (eq. 1%)
~4 ped current days per week -> 14.5/4=0.275862.
52 weeks in the year -> 0.275862 * 52 = 14.3448 % (thats the REAL projected ROI for the year nowadays)

The data MA included in the item info of CLD are completely missleading.
In my eyes this is purpose to cover the Real returns of CLD.
MA-staff isnt that stupid that they wouldnt notice this............
Aswell the MU-bug on CLD's are made under purpose in my eyes.
first they made %'s which was very confusing,
now they made TT+ but if someone buy a stack of 5 , the whole price for the stack is added to the middle average...........


they just want to avoid that people who dont make further investigation dont get the real status of CLD and their rational worth.

 

[Zorander]

TL;DR - If you're unhappy with the return rate on CLDs, don't buy them. Plenty are willing to take them off your hands.

Are you seriously whining about getting a 14%+ interest rate on your PED? Go ahead and withdraw your money and get more for it then, you can just deposit the earnings from the higher yield investments you've made and end up with more PED.

As for CLD returns not being stable... the overall returns for the year seem pretty stable to me. They are indeed below MA's projections but not so much that they aren't worth having. You speak of stability from one point to the next, you remind me of those that kill 10 mobs and then complain about the horrible hunting returns. When you take the average of a good number of data samples you get the steady returns the OP mentioned. It's like magic... but with numbers and rational thought.

 

[Raven Lunchbox]

well all this data are adressed on a CLD-price of 1000ped.

If you look on current prices for CLD all this data need be corrected down.
1450 / 100 = 14.5 (eq. 1%)
~4 ped current days per week -> 14.5/4=0.275862.
52 weeks in the year -> 0.275862 * 52 = 14.3448 % (thats the REAL projected ROI for the year nowadays)

The data MA included in the item info of CLD are completely missleading.
In my eyes this is purpose to cover the Real returns of CLD.
MA-staff isnt that stupid that they wouldnt notice this............
Aswell the MU-bug on CLD's are made under purpose in my eyes.
first they made %'s which was very confusing,
now they made TT+ but if someone buy a stack of 5 , the whole price for the stack is added to the middle average...........


they just want to avoid that people who dont make further investigation dont get the real status of CLD and their rational worth.

no,

we do not take into account the current mu of cld's as MA NEVER EVER EVER SAID we will give u 27-30% of what the mu in the future will be. It was always based off the 1k ped base value they were originally sold at. So that is how it is to be calculated, which true is still below lower estimated returns.

Zorander,

I understand your point. But.... this isn't LaLa land either. When you give financials, every .1% matters

You try to work with or invest in any firm that promises you will get say 5% return and then u get 2% your gonna be unhappy about that.

Is 22% good, yes I think its not bad for sure. but it absolutely is not the 27-30% projection that was originally stated, so the argument in post 3 holds true because it is not on the high end of payouts its always been below the mark.

If that mark is acceptable to you that it can be 5-8% off estimates, you should invest large amounts of cash into this idea I have you will get 20% back per year. (I think)

My cut will be an undisclosed amount.

 

[Zorander]

As I said in my first post, the returns have been lower than MA's initial estimates, but not low enough to mean CLDs are a bad investment. The returns have been fairly stable, they haven't dropped off dramatically since the first leveled out, and at 20%+ ROI they certainly beat letting your PED just sit around and they beat out many real world investments. I believe this is what the OP meant by high returns and I agree with him.

Anyone that purchased CLDs before the real returns were apparent did so at 1k PED per deed. This means that they could sell now, or could have sold for the last year, for a tidy 50% profit on their original PED plus all the payouts for the time they held the deeds. Not a bad deal IMO.

Anyone that purchased after the initial sale was done already knew they weren't going to get the approximate return MA originally stated. The fact that these deeds now sell for about 150% of their original price proves that many still consider them a good deal or, at the least, a good place to store idle PED.

All of that aside, when was the last time we actually got exactly what was promised from MA?

 

[Raven Lunchbox]

As I said in my first post, the returns have been lower than MA's initial estimates, but not low enough to mean CLDs are a bad investment. The returns have been fairly stable, they haven't dropped off dramatically since the first leveled out, and at 20%+ ROI they certainly beat letting your PED just sit around and they beat out many real world investments. I believe this is what the OP meant by high returns and I agree with him.

Anyone that purchased CLDs before the real returns were apparent did so at 1k PED per deed. This means that they could sell now, or could have sold for the last year, for a tidy 50% profit on their original PED plus all the payouts for the time they held the deeds. Not a bad deal IMO.

Anyone that purchased after the initial sale was done already knew they weren't going to get the approximate return MA originally stated. The fact that these deeds now sell for about 150% of their original price proves that many still consider them a good deal or, at the least, a good place to store idle PED.

All of that aside, when was the last time we actually got exactly what was promised from MA?

I approve the above message

 

[Amar]

For starters it would IMNSHO have to be closer to the higher end of the projection range stated by the original sellers (MA, projecting 27%-30%), i.e. over 28.5%.

Secondly, both the 3-month and 6-month average have for the last ten consecutive weeks been at an all-time-low, only "recovering" a tiny amount in the last 2-3 payouts:

The 3 month average has "recovered" from 19.39% three weeks ago to 19.96%.
The 6 month average has "recovered" from 20.86% three weeks ago to 21.18%.

CLD weekly payouts have only ONCE (*) even reached the lower projection of 27%, new years eve 2012 (2012-12-31) - that is one single data-point in over 100, i.e. it's more of a statistical anomaly.

Neither the 3 month- nor the 6-month average have ever (*) been above 25%.

I therefore claim that calling this "stable high return" is at best a report out-of-context, or at worst an attempt at history revisionism. Payouts have neither been stable (fluctuations of over 100%) nor high during 2013. The truth is that CLD returns have never (*) even reached the minimum projection.

(*) Counted from the time all CLD's were sold, and payouts started to stabilize - i.e. around July 2012.

Firstly, I understand that some people attach a great amount of importance to MA's original prediction of CLD returns when reviewing their performance, you are certainly not alone there. Personally, I have limited interest in these predictions and consider a consistent 20%+ return to be "high" on its own merits. That said, I am in no way trying to hide the fact that returns are significantly lower than was predicted.

Secondly, I'm not convinced that these 3 month and 6 month rolling comparisons are very useful since they are affected by seasonal trends that would be better compared with the same period in other years.

You stated that the 3 month and 6 month averages had only recovered a tiny amount in the last 2-3 payouts - but it is only possible for a 3 month average to recover a tiny amount in 2 or 3 payouts because it is a 3 month average! Not really sure what you think that information is telling us.

 

[Amar]

well all this data are adressed on a CLD-price of 1000ped.

If you look on current prices for CLD all this data need be corrected down.
1450 / 100 = 14.5 (eq. 1%)
~4 ped current days per week -> 14.5/4=0.275862.
52 weeks in the year -> 0.275862 * 52 = 14.3448 % (thats the REAL projected ROI for the year nowadays)

You have made a good point that I missed in the report. Anyone considering buying CLDs as an investment should consider the returns in relation to the price they are paying for the CLD, i.e. the current resale value. Returns represent a much lower % for new investors.

However, it is necessary to continue comparing performance relative to the 1000 PED base price to make trends and historical comparisons as easy as possible to understand.

 

[Wollongong]

We very much needed an analysis as this one.
Thanks.

 

[J D]

a stable, relatively high return investment opportunity.

I overlaid the 2013 Google Trends for "Entropia Universe" on to Amar's 2013 ROI chart.

​

Which kinda states the obvious.... That the CLD ROI is somewhat related to newcomer interest into the game.

Which in turn is primarily driven by Virtual Sales Hype, News Reports, New Game Mechanics and Press Releases.

So with that in mind, it would pay to look at the last 2 years trend from Google on the ALL-TIME 'Interest Over Time' chart below to judge the Stability of your CLD ROI

As investors in Planet Calyspo (and essentially MA) one would need to ask...
"What are you going to do to compete with big upcoming multi-player online PC titles for 2014/2015?"

At the end of the day and as a combined group of investors. Do you want stability or growth?

 

[Wollongong]

I would like stable growth....

 

[AxeMurderer]

I overlaid the 2013 Google Trends for "Entropia Universe" on to Amar's 2013 ROI chart.

​

Which kinda states the obvious.... That the CLD ROI is somewhat related to newcomer interest into the game.

Which in turn is primarily driven by Virtual Sales Hype, News Reports, New Game Mechanics and Press Releases.

So with that in mind, it would pay to look at the last 2 years trend from Google on the ALL-TIME 'Interest Over Time' chart below to judge the Stability of your CLD ROI

As investors in Planet Calyspo (and essentially MA) one would need to ask...
"What are you going to do to compete with big upcoming multi-player online PC titles for 2014/2015?"

At the end of the day and as a combined group of investors. Do you want stability or growth?

This is not the obvious. This is your interpretation.
The obvious is that every time there is new content added or new event interest in game and CLD payout increase. And everyone playing actualy knows it even before it happens.
The part from your post that is probably most wrong is that "That the CLD ROI is somewhat related to newcomer interest into the game."
And if you find another game "big upcoming multi-player online PC titles for 2014/2015" with so much freedom, even just in avatar movement let me know so I can play it.

 

[Amar]

I would like stable growth....

Yeah, me too. Of course, while we have had a flat-ish rate of return, we have still had some growth in the resale value. With limited supply there is every possibility that could continue. Especially if any of the added features we are awaiting have significant perceived value. Thats always worth bearing in mind

While JDs overlay may be predicting flat returns, I think it also shows the potential of what could happen if MA get some significant new interest somehow.