Fed up!

[remontoire]

"Hunt 1000 mobs and you will get 90% or better" is simply utter bullshit. I'm sure in a year or two, it will be 1500 to be upgraded to 2000. The reality is that this has no basis. You can hunt over 6000 molisk, and never see a return over 80%, either for any consecutive 1000 kills or overall. No doubt it applies just as easily to other mobs too.

It is simply pathetic how people go off and put down everybody not achieving equal results. It is even more pathetic how they feel the right to preach whatever is their modus operandi as the one true way and ringer of those results.

 

[GoNi]

What remontoire said.

Its just BS.

As alread said, never ever killed 1k mobs in 1 run, very unlikely I will ever do this.

Never ever killed 1k mobs (without hunting anything else in between) over a period of several days.

I do fine anyways, others who follow your rules do way less good in EU than I do.

My decisions what to hunt, where to hunt, how long to hunt, are based on some totally different factors, fitting into my own personal loot theorie, and that works for me. No I do not share my theorie!

What me pisses off, is calling me a gambler not following your theorie, never killing 1k mobs in a row.
That is absolutely not needed to get an average return of 90%, beside that this 90% average is not needed to do good in EU.

Do I play smart, well I think I do.
Do I play stupid, well I am sure I do that from time to time, too.
Does this hurt me? No it doesn´t hurt me.
Do I have fun in EU, yes I definately do!

Last sentence is the most important of all!

All you analysts forget, is to have fun in EU.
Its a game, its a universe, its for having fun!

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

;

What remontoire said.

Its just BS.

As alread said, never ever killed 1k mobs in 1 run, very unlikely I will ever do this.

Never ever killed 1k mobs (without hunting anything else in between) over a period of several days.

I do fine anyways, others who follow your rules do way less good in EU than I do.

My decisions what to hunt, where to hunt, how long to hunt, are based on some totally different factors, fitting into my own personal loot theorie, and that works for me. No I do not share my theorie!

What me pisses off, is calling me a gambler not following your theorie, never killing 1k mobs in a row.
That is absolutely not needed to get an average return of 90%, beside that this 90% average is not needed to do good in EU.

Do I play smart, well I think I do.
Do I play stupid, well I am sure I do that from time to time, too.
Does this hurt me? No it doesn´t hurt me.
Do I have fun in EU, yes I definately do!

Last sentence is the most important of all!

All you analysts forget, is to have fun in EU.
Its a game, its a universe, its for having fun!

Imho it is enough to stick to a level where your bankroll supports that amount of kills in order to let randomness level out. The 1k consecutive same mob idea sounds a bit overkill for me.

I guess it all comes down to where you believe loot is kept.

 

[Wollongong]

Whether it is BS or not is not really relevant. It would be a lot better when you get somewhat predictable results with lower amounts of kills. I mean, the central tendency statement (I hope that is translated) translates (very simplified) into: if you have 30 measurements or more, you will see a spread resembling standard normal returns. Should be about the same here.

Because I don't know about others, but I like to be able to switch every now and then. Throw 100 PED onto argo, then do some puny, try a mission again, etc.

Varied gamestyle brings more fun than grinding 10K of the same mob for months.

 

[Scurvy Sityl]

Whether it is BS or not is not really relevant. It would be a lot better when you get somewhat predictable results with lower amounts of kills. I mean, the central tendency statement (I hope that is translated) translates (very simplified) into: if you have 30 measurements or more, you will see a spread resembling standard normal returns. Should be about the same here.

Because I don't know about others, but I like to be able to switch every now and then. Throw 100 PED onto argo, then do some puny, try a mission again, etc.

Varied gamestyle brings more fun than grinding 10K of the same mob for months.

If they gave more predictable results, then they'd have to reduce frequency/size of globals/hofs.

The ultimate stability would be a 90% return on every single mob with literally no variability. I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound very fun at all. Variability is what's exciting!

 

[S4400Salvation]

When should one reach the magical 90%, i've killed aurli in 1k kills + per run, the 90 was nowhere in sight so i just stopped killing them (5k~ of 10k remaining).

 

[Naithen]

When should one reach the magical 90%, i've killed aurli in 1k kills + per run, the 90 was nowhere in sight so i just stopped killing them (5k~ of 10k remaining).

Well dont forget you have to account for the bastard who enters the same area your hunting for 5 minutes and takes your global/hof and then leaves OR the login global guy or Mr Lootius who forgot to load the loot into your mob when he came to work because he was hung over from the previous nights drinking Theres so many factors to screw your hunting returns

 

[narfi]

Its just BS.

It's just statistics.

Flip a coin 1000 times.
Chances are very slim that you will get 500 tails and 500 heads.
You will get either more heads or more tails even though statistically you should get 50/50.
It is not BS, it is simple math and statistics and probabilities.
Step back and look at the big picture and take off the ME ME ME!!!! colored glasses.

Suppose you got 468 heads and 532 tails.
While quite possible to get these numbers flipping a coin, it is actually quite a bit different than the predicted 50/50.
Now go back and look at the 'patterns' of heads and tails throughout that entire series of 1000 flips.
You will have periods of time where heads was very strong in a section of 10-100 flips, and you will have periods of time where tails were very strong.
This is as simple as it gets, and yet it can be done in your livingroom with one coin and a pen and paper.
Now suppose you got 10 of your friends together one evening and each flipped a coin 1000 times and wrote down each result.
Now suppose each of us who reads the forum planned on a single night that we would each have 10 rl friends over to our houses and flip coins.

Now combine the results of the 10 at your house, with each set of 10 from each of the other players participating..... Your results would be much closer to 50/50 and yet very very few of those 1000+ people participating in the experiment would have gotten exactly 500 heads and 500 tails.

This is so simple a concept it can be done without a calculator and without a computer.
What we see here in Entropia seems to me to very closely parallel that example scenario.

It's just statistics.

The ultimate stability would be a 90% return on every single mob with literally no variability. I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound very fun at all. Variability is what's exciting!

I don't think anyone wants 90% back per mob if they really took the time to think about it. Most players would quit the day that happened because all excitement and fun would be gone.

 

[remontoire]

EU loot does not follow a normal distribution, so analogies with coin tosses do not actually apply.

The standard deviation for 1000 coin tosses is 15.811 (~16). 95% of the distribution is within 2 standard deviations of the mean, so 95% of people would be getting between 468 (93.6%) and 532 (106.4%) tails, which if the mean "payout" was 90%, would be 84% - 95.76% returns.

Except it is not a normal distribution.

 

[narfi]

It doesn't matter how many modifiers you add to the coin, or how complex you make it, the analogy still applies

 

[Haruto Rat]

EU loot does not follow a normal distribution, so analogies with coin tosses do not actually apply.

The standard deviation for 1000 coin tosses is 15.811 (~16). 95% of the distribution is within 2 standard deviations of the mean, so 95% of people would be getting between 468 (93.6%) and 532 (106.4%) tails, which if the mean "payout" was 90%, would be 84% - 95.76% returns.

Except it is not a normal distribution.

It's not even a homoscedastic distribution (in time), so trying to pin down a magic number of "tosses" to arrive at magic 90% is a waste of time.

 

[Haruto Rat]

It doesn't matter how many modifiers you add to the coin, or how complex you make it, the analogy still applies

In a sense that more attempts are more likely to take you closer to the mathematical expectation (presuming it's constant which is a generous assumption), yes.
In a sense that you can predict the range you'd be in after 1000 attempts (or any other number), no.

These are tt returns of 32*100 click runs on maxed generic leather texture:

Cumulative return indeed does converge towards 95%, but it's not like you can predict when it will happen.

 

[narfi]

Your chart (and I think what you are saying) is perfectly in agreement with what I said.
I think I am confused where the argument is?

 

[remontoire]

It doesn't matter how many modifiers you add to the coin, or how complex you make it, the analogy still applies

It ONLY applies if the other distribution is also a normal distribution. There are other distributions, you know.

 

[Haruto Rat]

Your chart (and I think what you are saying) is perfectly in agreement with what I said.
I think I am confused where the argument is?

I'd rather say there's partial agreement.
The general direction of convergence is (hopefully) predictable, the rate is not.

 

[Neil Stockton]

In a sense that more attempts are more likely to take you closer to the mathematical expectation (presuming it's constant which is a generous assumption), yes.
In a sense that you can predict the range you'd be in after 1000 attempts (or any other number), no.

This is right. Some people seem to be taking away the message: "If I kill 1000 mobs then I'm guaranteed 90% TT return". This is NOT true. But you ARE much more likely to be close to that level than if you'd only killed 50. Especially considering the temporal fluctuations we see in loot (there are days almost everyone gets bad runs, there are days almost everyone gets good runs, I see this with mining).

It WILL take many more runs over long periods of time before your returns approach their "true" long term value.

 

[remontoire]

Your chart (and I think what you are saying) is perfectly in agreement with what I said.
I think I am confused where the argument is?

The argument is in statistics. You cannot apply results from a normal distribution to a function that doesn't have a normal distribution. Consider something like this:

The mean value may be the same, but the probability of various outcomes is different and you cannot even close to make the same kinds of claims as you can for normal distribution.

 

[FauconIoji]

I am a non-mathematician chiming in on a complex, statistical discussion here so please excuse my ignorance on distributions as I can't really add to the conversation in that respect. However, I think it's worth saying that Entropia has always been casino-esque; the house (MindArk) is always going to have an advantage, and will usually take your money, one way or another.

That's just one of those things i've come to accept. Although the circumstance of the OP is an extreme case, how many of us actually experienced similar results? I would anticipate that variance and murphy's law just came into play this time around. OP - try not to get too discouraged. How many times have we gone to a casino and lost everything, only to be matched by times where we make a tiny profit, or "damn-near break even"?

 

[narfi]

The argument is in statistics. ...........
The mean value may be the same............

This is all I am saying.
Obviously you cant predict anything, but you can observe the mean value.

 

[Neil Stockton]

Current unamped mining loot distribution. 1500 runs since April 15 (about the time mining loot system was changed). Each run is exactly 200 ped dropped, from several dozen different miners of all different skill levels, depths and finders. Tool decay is not included in the TT return numbers. There is a long tail out to the right (not shown on graph) consisting of ~ 7% of the runs. Height of the bar indicates how many runs fall into each category. Notice in particular the extremely small number of runs less than 60% return. Average for the runs included in the sample is 96.6%

 

[Arch]

It's not even a homoscedastic distribution (in time), so trying to pin down a magic number of "tosses" to arrive at magic 90% is a waste of time.

who u callin a homo?

 

[GoNi]

And all your math will not work if there is something like Lootpool.

You can´t get out of a pool what is not put into it.

 

[narfi]

And all your math will not work if there is something like Lootpool.

You can´t get out of a pool what is not put into it.

Just a reminder of what the horse says about lootpools.

Personal Lootpools - Many of the theories which suggest - inaccurately - that efficiency is unimportant will often employ the concept of a “personal lootpool”, claiming that the “system” will eventually provide a sort of compensation to avatars who have been operating in an inefficient manner. Such theories are very much misguided. There is no such thing as a “personal lootpool” for individual avatars, and there is no system in place which tracks each avatar’s returns over time, or which provides compensation to individual avatars. As a result, long-term results in Entropia Universe are directly related to the choices made by each participant, and those who approach their chosen profession in an efficient manner will find more success than those who do not. Overall this is a very positive thing and an important part of the Entropia virtual universe concept, as it allows those participants who spend the time and effort to approach their activities within Entropia Universe in a smart way to improve their chances of becoming successful, just like in the real world.

Independent Lootpools - One concern that we see very often on community forums, especially when a big All Time High is achieved, is that one profession is unfairly “financing” a huge loot in another profession. This misconception often results in one group of participants (i.e. hunters) becoming upset or frustrated that their activity is being used to fund the rewards given to another group of participants (i.e. miners). To hopefully dispel this misconception, we would like to inform participants that the loot pools for each main profession (hunting, mining and manufacturing) are completely independent of one another, and that a large loot in one profession has absolutely no impact on potential loots in any of the other professions.

 

[chronos]

Or, instead of killing 1000 mobs, or dropping 1000000 probes, you do 10 mobs, or 100 probes at that time return is good . I just wish i knew when that was, or if "good" is triggered by spending tons of peds first (but i dont think so).

 

[GoNi]

Just a reminder of what the horse says about lootpools.

I know that all!

There is no "personal" lootpool, so there is no granted 85-90% return on the long run.

There is seperated loot pool for every main proffession, no loot affects the loot of another proffession.

But it also says there is loot pools, at least one for every proffession.

What you do with this given information (and thats offical information given by MA), is up to yourself.

My point is your kill x numbers theorie to get an average of 90% can´t work if loot work with pools.
Someone else can drain that pool and then there is nothing left to get you back to your 90%, when you are actually in bad streak when this happens.
To get back to your 90% would need a way above average loot for you, what directly result in someone else losing more.

You still may do your statistic, and maybe its balanced out if you are constant active, but you definately can generalice it and say it balances out. History of EU already showed that there are unlucky players, that lost insane, while others covered their complete loss over years with hitting 1 ATH.

From my personal point of view, I would need to lose long time to get back to that 90%, as I hit some outstanding good loots in my career (TT wise, not items).

What is needed to survive in EU is beeing informed what actually happens.
If you would be my disciple, I would share some of my wisdom. I don´t want to share it on forum, as my fear is, when many players follow the same system I do, it very likely won´t work anymore.

Althoug I am not here to make big money, I try to avoid losing it. As long it works how I do it, I will continue doing it that way.
My strategy is different to what you suggest should be done to get that 90% return.
And I get that 90% returns aswell.

I don´t say your system is false, as long it works for you, well go on with it.

In my country we say:
Many ways lead to Rom, not only one!

Calling others who don´t follow your way a gambler is arrogant, thats why I feel pissed by your coments.

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

I know that all!

There is no "personal" lootpool, so there is no granted 85-90% return on the long run.

There is seperated loot pool for every main proffession, no loot affects the loot of another proffession.

But it also says there is loot pools, at least one for every proffession.

What you do with this given information (and thats offical information given by MA), is up to yourself.

My point is your kill x numbers theorie to get an average of 90% can´t work if loot work with pools.
Someone else can drain that pool and then there is nothing left to get you back to your 90%, when you are actually in bad streak when this happens.

Now, this is pure speculation on my part:

Back in the Marco-days we were told that big hofs would have no effect on ordinary loot and that aths came from separate sources like sales and such. If that still is true, that would basically divide the loot pools into three different categories:

-A normal for ordinary loot
-A progressive for big loots
-A completely separate from other sources

I am quite certain MA wants to balance the game in such a manner that the average return indeed is around 90%. There are plenty of statistics around to show for it and it gives a certain degree of trust.

Now, what you are talking about is deviations. But that's what makes probability so interesting; the larger the sample, the closer to the mean you will get.

So say you are out hunting a day when the pool is drained, even though I'm sure MA works against that, it won't matter in the long run because you will probably have plenty of hunts before you are hunting at such conditions again.

However, there are deviations no matter the sample size. I don't know the size of these, and I couldn't care less about researching them. But using standard models you could say that about 65% if players will be close to the 90% mark, about 25% a tad further away and a few percent are yet further away from it.

Pure speculation as I stated, but I am confident that MA has some sort of balancing mechanism in place to make sure that randomness can have its way. I have seen enough logs and statistics to go against it.

Thought experiment: Since MA knows how probability works, they have a lot of experience in it, what says that they can't let the hunting-pool reach a negative 100 000 on any given day? After all, they do know that given enough time it will even out.

 

[Neil Stockton]

However, there are deviations no matter the sample size. I don't know the size of these, and I couldn't care less about researching them. But using standard models you could say that about 65% if players will be close to the 90% mark, about 25% a tad further away and a few percent are yet further away from it.

Pure speculation as I stated

That's not how it works. The long-term asymptotic return number is more or less the same for everyone. There are minor factors like in-game activity, time of day you play, what you hunt/where you mine etc. that can affect your return. But the distribution of these asymptotic values does not have a wide spread. Even if your play style gets you all these "negative" factors you should be able to get 90% eventually. Of course, if you're playing uneco then your long term return will be lowered by the amount you're uneco. A lot of hunters can't get 95% simply because they get hunt with such high armor decay or use uneco weapons. In their case, 80% could be the max they can get long term until they change their playing style. Long term is not 1000 loot attempts, but more like 200k loot attempts.

And the concept of "loot pools" has only one relation to long-term returns: if MA regularly removes peds permanently from the loot pool then your long term return will decrease.

 

[Scurvy Sityl]

That's not how it works. The long-term asymptotic return number is more or less the same for everyone. There are minor factors like in-game activity, time of day you play, what you hunt/where you mine etc. that can affect your return. But the distribution of these asymptotic values does not have a wide spread. Even if your play style gets you all these "negative" factors you should be able to get 90% eventually. Of course, if you're playing uneco then your long term return will be lowered by the amount you're uneco. A lot of hunters can't get 95% simply because they get hunt with such high armor decay or use uneco weapons. In their case, 80% could be the max they can get long term until they change their playing style. Long term is not 1000 loot attempts, but more like 200k loot attempts.

And the concept of "loot pools" has only one relation to long-term returns: if MA regularly removes peds permanently from the loot pool then your long term return will decrease.

His numbers actually make sense in the short term, as the smaller sample size will lead to higher variance, but you're right, assuming the player is hunting eco, over a long term, there should be very similar (at least %-wise) returns.

 

[WhiningSkeptic]

That's not how it works. The long-term asymptotic return number is more or less the same for everyone. There are minor factors like in-game activity, time of day you play, what you hunt/where you mine etc. that can affect your return. But the distribution of these asymptotic values does not have a wide spread. Even if your play style gets you all these "negative" factors you should be able to get 90% eventually. Of course, if you're playing uneco then your long term return will be lowered by the amount you're uneco. A lot of hunters can't get 95% simply because they get hunt with such high armor decay or use uneco weapons. In their case, 80% could be the max they can get long term until they change their playing style. Long term is not 1000 loot attempts, but more like 200k loot attempts.

From my understanding you could expect some variance even though you have a large sample. What you are talking about is deviations from mean return and I am talking about deviations from average return per player.

I might be wrong, I'm not very knowledgeable when it comes to statistics, but if you take 1000 players average from 200 000 loots per player you will still have some variance. However, to be certain of how far away the players at the edges would end up we would need to calculate the standard deviation. Even though it might not be as big as a few percent, it will be around.

Do we have the required numbers? I would need to look into my old books before I can say anything more.

 

[KullXP]

Lies! All UL gear, most eco setup I can get together... Always hunting at good times of day, hunting right mobs... Good kill rate... Kill faster then regen would effect... If I ever hit somthing that bumps me up to 90% ill be in the ATH List !
Gear https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?266090-Caly-Trek-Cap-30-Smug-Tango-Cryo-VIII-Liakon-Boar-Etc&highlight=

But im not complaining, seems MA took a great big step in right direction recently and im very proud of them for that.