Ionar
Alpha
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2008
- Posts
- 652
- Location
- Sweden
- Society
- CRT
- Avatar Name
- Fritz Ionar
If the system works as Marco agreed to, you do have a 10% chance to lose the item. If it actually works with 2 dice rolls it is 5%.
Oh, I love numbers
Total risk of loosing secondary item over a maximum of 2 attempts = 7,25%
Risk to loose the secondary item on the second attempt = 2,25%
Here is how:
My interpretation of the OP as well as Marcos futher statements is that is only one "dice roll".
Assuming these facts are correct:
- One die roll per atempt
- 50% chans of success
- 45% chanse of faliure with salvage
- 5% chanse of total faliure (secondary item lost)
if you succed there is no second try. If the item is destroyed in the first attempt there is no second try (with that item). Hence there is only a 45% chanse of a second try to acure. And in the second attempt there is a 5% chans to lose the item (as it allways is in any one attempt).
So 5% of 45% is 2,25%.
Now total chanse to lose the item over a maximum of two trys is an other story ofcourse. My intuition says 5% (risk in first attempt) + 2,25% (risk in second attempt waying in the chanse there won't be a second attempt) = 7,25% risk. I'm not how ever an expert on statistics so I'm can't say for sure on that one...
Feel free to prove me wrong