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severe worries about eu future

CBB said:
well its just weird that the trend on all graphs sets in at roughly the same point = time , and i cant find a reason why its that time ad not more foten or anything.

i cant find a game reason what happened at that time

if its implementing more stuff then u would see this al the time, or if stuff is sold outside market that would happen more often too. Its a breaking point at the same time over tons of items


problem is its a one of a kind breach in trend.

its not doomsday lol, just somethign i noticed and wondering about.
i got roughly 35k ped involved and i ain gonna withdraw a pec about it ;)
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We have the VU 9.0 as a breakpoint, late 2007.

And if you check the Financial reports from MA site http://mindark.se/press/financial-reports/
you could cross reference with the graphs. When I last looked at them it looked like less people where was joining.

One thing more that I think about is that the mid lvl player bas is huge. You could think the skills and equipment ploted out should look like a pyramide with ubers and uber equipment at the top and noobs with opalos and pixie at the base. I guess it's more like a donought, with a fat middle with people with decent skills and decent equipment. We see the proof of that with the mob nerfs. If there was a huge playerbase that found it hard to take down a young Molisk why should they change it.
With a huge midlvl playerbase that instead of selling or TTing there loot and instead putting it in storage for later use(like I do), the volume of sales could decrese. In the end it feels like it's the (L) thing that causes this. If you buy the right (L) stuff you can be at least be in the top of the mid lvl without skill.

I blame the donought.
 
Two things here:
1. When prices go down people tend to throw stuff in tt or sell player to player more often than putting stuff in auction

2. I am very suspicious of the figures in MA s In-game stats. It would be more interesting if the statistics were gathered from some other source (PEAUCTION?) and compared there.
 
Change in loot distributions?

More people tt-ing low % mark up?

IMO:
Changes in the way auction is charged + low % mark up = turning point. When the auction first changed its charging, there were no changes is these graphs (as far as I can see).
 
CBB said:
...

Atm i am busy with some trading/reselling and ....

...

I still have so much faith in eu, been doign that for 6 years, and i wont withdraw a ped over this, i just think it will be a bumpy ride and i feel MA should do max atm to draw in new players and hold current onces.

....
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Despite you are not my kind of friend ;), I + Rep you for the intersting concept. I have no idea about the reason for these graphs but the topic is cool. :computer:
 
yes tt-ing more might work, but that doesnt explain that the same trend is also in Mind essence which has a 200% mark up and other minerals with a mark up.
Or the korss 400, which i hope u dont TT
 
steffel said:
each graph got 8 datapoints for a total of 3 to 5 years...maybe that's why the former summer holes aint visible, not enough data = tomuch smoothing ?
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Exactly my thoughts

And btw, this is not the first "Teh sky is fallin!!111oneone"-thread - no, not even the first this year - and won't be the last... ;)

Relax, it's only the graph that sucks...
 
CBB said:
yes tt-ing more might work, but that doesnt explain that the same trend is also in Mind essence which has a 200% mark up and other minerals with a mark up.
Or the korss 400, which i hope u dont TT
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As i stated at the beginning, loot rate of korss 400 has dropped a lot a few month ago (with fef adjustment), so that can explain why less tt is sold.
 
As this thread is pointing out, there isnt just one paticular reason we are seeing this in the graph.

Rl issues, how much materials drop, how many ppl mine for them selves or trade amongest their soceities, bp's that are better to skill on than the old ones, what type of equipment is being used in game....the list goes on.

I think most ppl realized that there was going to be a 'glass ceiling'. Things can only go up so long till it changes.

I found this vu to be interesting. I couldnt figure one reason out why I should depo. Hunt?....nah, chance of hof low, chance of getting uber weapon ul or L , very low, chance of even looting ul anything like a&p very low, skill up at an acceptable pace...no. Mine? Well probably the best odds but Im just bored with it. Crafting? same chances as hunting to get anthing worth a crap, too much compitition to sell low lvl equipment ect...all the same reasons as already stated not to do it....

I cant even find stuff on auction for a sutaible price or even on auction at all to depo and buy....wtf MA?
 
hmmmm :scratch:

Well just from the Aurli Bone standpoint I can remember them being extremely hard to loot and it was very profitable for someone with the 5B plate BP to make a lot of ped because they were in demand. So pretty much any Aurli bone was bought because mark up on the plate was high.

I recently looked at the plate section of the auction and there are more 5B plates for sale than I can ever remember. Are they being sold? Is it profitable for the crafter? If there is a flood of those plates on the market that are not being sold then people will buy less Aurli bones to make them.

The Korss 400(L) is IMO dropping less making it less of an option. People will look for similar or better options that are crafted and more available. (L) is supposed to churn crafting and if things like Korss 400(L) drop in high amounts people are less likely to seek out a crafted option.

We continually have new items that show up in crafting some of which people will adopt that don't take the raw materials that were in demand for the prior item that was crafted. If that happens those raw materials will be bought less and if they are being readily found there will be more competition to sell them.

I think the summer slump combined with higher real life prices is taking a toll on people's entertainment dollar as well. Many cannot justify depositing 100USD when they need to pay more for food, gas, and living expenses.

I think there are more concurrent participants in EU. Part of that is due to prices constantly dropping on raw materials. If there is more competition to sell then crafters can by for less. Sometimes there is so much competition its not worth auctioning items due to the fees so a lot of raw materials get munched by the TT.

MA can balance the system how they see fit. As it stands now they are making it cheaper to craft and hopefully with more people crafting we will see decent competition and prices lowering across the board making it less expensive to participate.

Will it take MA balancing the system or will those graphs perk up as summer ends and fall nears? I can't say but I am not worried about it.

On a side note EU has been lacking that big yearly buzz worthy news like Banks, Malls, CND, and TI. Once they get CE2 up and running it might breathe new life into EU just like the other events in our past, but that is just my opinion.
 
We have seen the introduction of limited items and many, many new items in EU. The demand for many items has dropped and been replaced by the demand for many new items.

While this topic may be worthy to discuss, I think that the title of the thread suggesting doom and gloom is irresponsible.
 
i didnt read every post completely but i gotta say one thing, ive met lotsa miners who want to eventually become crafters and many people have told me to store my mining loot for crafting.... and also usage of auction to sell items has gone down due to some auction bots who will bid the minimum for ur item on which others might have bid a little higher but are discouraged...... but if you really take this as a problem its probably coz the aution fees+low% selling of the items is what is causing more and more people to avoid the auction and deal directly with traders/crafters so as to avoid the auction fee and the low % ppl put on their items....

Just a possibility...:cool:
 
Pol said:
OK something no one has considered (yet) is that the EU economy is very reliant on the real world economy. Its called discretionary spending, the world economy is reeling from higher petrol prices, food prices and a "credit crunch".

If its not just a change in the way ppl trade, it might well be the real world rippling through (which it should in theory).

If its a change in behaviour then no real harm done, if its the effect of the real world economy it should correct itself as things improve.

Either way I've not seen anything to say that the player base has changed and in both cases MA should be monitoring the situation and "balancing" where required.

My personal opinion is that I've noted what is said, but I'll be waiting to see what is happening further on down the track, basically because I agree with the others.... its to early to tell yet.
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Yes, it seems natural that the real world economy low also affects EU economy.
 
I saw the graph on animal hides but I learned early to carry the tailoring refiner for hides and skins (to save weight) so I don't have a lot of hides ... also with texturing coming in I save my "leathers" for that.
 
Maybe the graph is just buggy and looks weird because we havn't finished 2008 yet.

If all the other points are total sales during that year and they use the same way to jsut sum up 2008 (SELECT SUM(*) num_sold IN sales WHERE date=2006 or whatever), then you would get a dip on this year...

From what I can see its only aurli bones that fell down already 2007, all the others are a straight line down from 2007 to 2008...
 
funny that everybody is making excuses and ways around it, nobody agrees with the possibility of less depo/players or activity;)

i hope u re right
 
CBB said:
funny that everybody is making excuses and ways around it, nobody agrees with the possibility of less depo/players or activity;)

i hope u re right
Click to expand...

I just think there are other reasons things like this could occur other than less deposits/players/activity. I think there are more miners now and crafters than ever before. To me more miners means more competition which means ore prices will drop. If the handy dandy new (L) gadget MA implements that everyone wants does not take belkar then need for that ore might drop as well.

There is always some activity decrease in the summer time that is just EU. There is a strange bit of balancing that has been going on for some time. Part of me thinks MA is flooding the market with some items well.........because people have been asking for it.

:dunno: It could be a mixture of MA balancing and what you stated. I just know before it ever gets out of control I think MA would step in. I am also not sure if the prior data in the graphs is as accurate as the current data since thier implementation but thats just my opinion. Its hard to say what MA implemented in the VU when the market data was introduced and what they were collecting since the beginning.
 
euhm the ore amp 103 , for example has the same breakpoint at the same time
 
Interesting that sales volume is down on those items, indeed.

At the same time, I haven't noticed any decline in activity in EU to be honest, more the opposite if anything.

Down turn could be caused by a number of things other than less activity:

(i) Less reseller activity on resources, due to auction fee making it less profitable
(ii) More resources being sold in shops rather than auction
(iii) More variety of resources being available resulting in a thinning of sales as people use the new stuff as well as the old stuff
(iv) Summer lull

Interesting spot though, worth having another look in a few months time certainly.
 
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CBB said:
euhm the ore amp 103 , for example has the same breakpoint at the same time
Click to expand...

Compare that with something that does not have the same break point at the same time and figure out why one has the issue and why the other does not. The answer might be tied to a specific VU or possibly a change in MA balance or player perspective on those certain items.

I know at one point someone bought all the available OA-103s and jacked the price up. It was obvious what had happened so I looked elsewhere for other options or I mined unamped because of the blantant manipulation.

Every action there is a reaction. I would say to get to the bottom of the reason behind the dip in those item graphs all around the same time you have to find the catalyst which cause the reaction. It could be one thing or many different things but from the graphs you showed us something did occur for those items.
 
I read in the financials that MA has been concentrating on partnership agreements, China and the new game engine. Customer acquisition and marketing has taken a back seat but there will be a big marketing campaign once the new engine is in place.

Back a few years ago, MA was bankrupt. Now they are a profitable company looking to the future. Not everything can be done at once.

Having left EU for quite some time before resuming my activity last year, it seems that there are many more players than back in 03.
 
players keeping it more real, changes in loots, mobs etc.

first reason, the most obvious one - changes in auction system. remember those? that is why quite a lot of it does not go through auction any more.


J.
 
I will comment on 2 graphs - korss and iron.

The apex of Korss sales seems to be at the beginning of 2008, and after that it goes downhill. This is perfectly normal, since in the beginning of 2008 korss H400 dropped in EVERY fef global. The chance of getting a korss in a globe was literally 99% Then MA adjusted the rate, and there you have it.
Also the drop in volume coincides with price drop of guns like LR53 LR59, HL6, CB13 etc, and and supply stability increase of crafted breer P5a.

Iron.

There are several reasons for this. From hunting scene perspective - argonauts aren't the #1 profit mob anymore - ppl have moved on to different mobs, so there are no more godzillion tons of iron supplied by the hunters.

Second reason - basic filters aren't the "skill crafting" item #1, where iron is the key component :)

And finally, yes there is a macroeconomic cause for this too, as it was mentioned before - the "adjusted" auction fee.
 
CBB said:
funny that everybody is making excuses and ways around it, nobody agrees with the possibility of less depo/players or activity;)
Click to expand...

its an interesting observation, and certainly its possible that there are fewer players/less activity. however, it doesnt feel like that, places a still busy as they where last year and most prices are up (which on lower volumes indicates even stronger relative prices). I think the problem with analysis of these grpahs is there's no way to know if earlier volume data was due to a greater number of auctions placed at more reasonable prices (only a sale is registered*), or to account for off auction sales.

* actually, you might be able to look at PE Auction to get an idea of this.
 
Hummm

Is the not due to the fact we have alot more shops now...

Most of the shops have become established and many players that loot alot or Societies sell there items via a shop. The Auction also became alot more expensive at one point and the knock on effect could be that people just sell less in auction.

2 pecs
MoonFish
 
Nice finds-very interesting work +rep

Tbh, I do think that most players are playing less than they used to e.t.c. but I believe that it is only temporary-cryENGINE will draw players back, draw new players to the game, and get people interested again. The engine will allow so much more to be done ingame, mindforce could become useful e.t.c. ;)

I believe this is only a temporary glitch-it will pick up, trust me ;)
If MA do it right, EU is heading for a boom-crytropia will be enticing, interesting, and the best looking MMO in the world :)
Frankenberry-NBK Legion
 
about the hides going down. Since VU version? (about a year ago or sth) the amount of hides that drop in loots has increased MEGA. A year ago you maybe looted 200 hides in a whole hunt, now you can loot it in one mob.

My point is: A year ago, i collected the hides in my storage and would sell them in auction. NOW because it is a much bigger part of my total loot i get in a hunt, i TT-them directly cause i need the peds.
SO maybe a lot more is TT-ed then sold since last years VU. A year ago i would never have TT-ed wool. Now it is coming in suchs big amounts, and suchs low markup, that i tt them.

I didnt look at the different graphics closely, but maybe more 'loots' are TT-worthy now than a few years ago.

AND i forgot one very important thing.
Since the end of 2007 the worldwide RL economy is slowing down bigtime. Big financial problems for Financial institutions, for a lot of people healthinsurance went up, high oil prices, increasing costs of 'living'. Consumerspending indexes on all time low/negative ETC ETC.

A lot of reasons why people maybe have less to spent, cant and dont wanna afford 'luxury' things like depositing in EU.
 
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Almost every item markup is going hazy and rockety, which totally sucks, it is never really a average amount, sometimes markup can go so high and even below usual average.

Since the VU last year, i think less players are coming on, well maybe quit, like my old soc for example, every1 is now inactive that's why i left when i came back from half a year hiatus. Even look at PA and Twins, there are way less people buying, and so much selling (and it used to totally lag from too much people all condensed in the marketplace, now is basically almost empty).

I hope the Cry Engine would actually bring in more players and possibly boost up the markup of items, or else it would be ridiculously hard to play on without even depositing.
 
I beleive the drop in market value of lower end items / resources etc is down to increased playerbase.

Newer players have a much wider variety of activites in Entropia than we did when we started, making it quite attractive for newer players to want to free up PED quickly to try out the 'new thing' they found , or keep up with their Soc mates.

What's the quickest way to sell something and gain those peds ? Simple... Sell it cheap...

What do you look for in the auction when you buy something ? Cost right;), so those who see it undermarkup buy it , and in turn influence the market value.

Which is why you don't really see high end items losing value... bcos the newer , bigger playerbase doesn't have much access to them.

I also think that some of it can be accredited to the holiday season... not alot, but when you have a smaller market audience it's harder to sell, hence people who want to sell quickly , have to sell cheaper.

Just my 2 pecs ;)
 
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