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The infamous luck factor - is MA breaking the law?

Starfinder

Starfinder

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Jan 31, 2005
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Denmark
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Planet Express
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Ms. Kazzza 'Starfinder' Milla
Consider this an "open letter to MindArk".

Given my unique position as the owner of EntropiaTracker.com I have access to the most comprehensive database which has been recording globals from inside Entropia Universe since 2008.

It has come to my attention, after reading many posts which amounts to "another newbie gets an uber", I decided to check the numbers in the database. Surely the "average uber rate" for newbies should be lower than that of "long term players" simply because "long term players" have accumulated high end armor and weapons in order to be able to take down the big mobs. Those mobs which by any logic should have a higher chance of dropping the big loots. This combined with the constant reinsurance from MindArk that "All avatars are created equal" led me to believe that what the database would tell was that - regular players do at least uber as often as newbies and likely more.

Here is how I did the database look up.
I pulled the total number of globals, and the total number of ubers (1000 PED or higher) for people (not teams) which had 50 or less globals.

The total number of globals for people who has had less than 50 globals is: 112.394 globals.

The total number of ubers for people who has had less than 50 globals is: 513 ubers

This gives an uber rate of 0.004564

I did the same for people with MORE than 50 globals.
Then the numbers looks as follows:
Globals: 1.610.598
Ubers: 6.141

This gives an uber rate of 0.003812

The differences between those two numbers may not seem that big, but if we assume that the "normal uber rate" is that of the "long term players" then the newbies have an approximately 20% higher chance of ubering than long term players.

This is disturbing to say the least, especially considering that newbies usually global on mobs like:
30 Daikiba Young
21 Argonaut Young
20 Atrox Young
18 Combibo Young
16 Exarosaur Young
13 Berycled Young
13 Feffoid Guard
12 Atrox Mature
12 Ambulimax Young
11 Molisk Young



Anyone from MindArk care to comment on this - by the looks of it - favoritism of the newcommers?
 
Just out of interest - Cornundacauda?
 
math

Thanks for crunching the numbers. To me it totally confirms the thought that noobs get ubers on a suspicious rate.
Just where you said, that statically long term players should have more ubers due to playing time. If I killed 1000 Levis and someone kills 1000 Daikiba, you would think that the 1k levi would win. Of course you have the Dynamic factor...
Your numbers support the assumption. What can we do about it? I guess not much. I got a big hof mining when I first started... Hofs on Calypso mining since??? none. I would not be surprised to finish the 10k daikiba mission and not get a single global, but I would also expect in that time I will see at least 2 more big hofs if not an uber or two.
Maybe I'm getting off track here.
I just wanted to say thanks for providing this information. The work you do is something I am truly grateful for.
:wise:
 
4 Cornundacauda Mature
3 Cornundacauda Young
2 Cornundacauda Prowler
2 Cornundacauda Stalker
1 Cornundacauda Dominant
1 Cornundacauda Old Alpha
1 Cornundacauda Old



Also.. as a addition to op.
MindArk can very well claim that "Daikiba young rarely global, thus when they do.. its likely that they uber more than for instance atrox which everyone hunts and globals on all the time - which COULD explain why it looks like newbies are ubering a lot compared to 'long term players'".
 
There seems to be a structural problem with your analysis.

You take an uber for 1000 PED and more which is, however, completely arbitrary from a math standpoint. You set the threshold for globals achieved at 50 which is arbitrary as well.

If you’d alter one or the other or both you’d arrive at different results. In fact, there will be a set of pairs (U, G) with at least very near equality. It’s only that (1000, 50) is not included therein. :dunno:
 
GradenFoss said:
There seems to be a structural problem with your analysis.

You take an uber for 1000 PED and more which is, however, completely arbitrary from a math standpoint. You set the threshold for globals achieved at 50 which is arbitrary as well.

If you’d alter one or the other or both you’d arrive at different results. In fact, there will be a set of pairs (U, G) with at least very near equality. It’s only that (1000, 50) is not included therein. :dunno:
Click to expand...

True. So, would you eliminate U by comparing global sizes?
And how would you eliminate G?
 
Starfinder said:
True. So, would you eliminate U by comparing global sizes?
And how would you eliminate G?
Click to expand...

Well, the point is: If you fix either U or G you will automatically get one value for the resp. other variable where near equality will be the case.

So my conclusion would be, you cannot prove your assumption with the mathematics you’re using.

EDIT: With assumption I mean, MA deliberately helping out with beginners’ luck. Ofc, after your analysis you’re correct when stating that beginners (as you have defined the term as having 50 globals or less) have a 20% higher chance to get a Global/HoF of 1000 PED or more. But that’s just the numbers you’re using.
 
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Problem is that this outcome can be generated by myriads of causes:
- MA bumps nubs against ubers (evil MA)
- There is a karma per player, karma goes down then it peaks up and you get an uber, uber have to go down more deeper than nubs (honest alg?)
- Larger weapons requires larger peak reward (uber) so system will have to save more before paying a certain uber (a variant of previous explanation)
- Nub mobs are more bumped than uber mobs (evil ma?)
- Nub mobs are hunted more often than uber mobs so loot system dispatch more money on nub mobs (honest arg?)
- Ubers give up their habits often while nubs keep hunting enthusiastic, so they claim their reward more often (again a combination of previous algs)
- etc..
I can imagine maybe one hundred ways to get that outcome, problem is that player base is too small and experiments are too expensive to do real statistical analyses.
 
my problem with this is that you are comparing apples to oranges. The rate of uber multipliers per # of mobs killed is very similar. Rate of globals to mobs killed is not.
My estimate is that mobs on avg hit a 400-600 times cost to kill every 30-40K killed and one 1500 times or more every 150K killed etc.

Small baby mobs just don't global on your normal global mulplier. You wont see globals on Daikiba youngs till you hit one of those rare 400-500 times loots. So it may be 30K mobs killed for each Daikiba Young global but only 100 kills per Fefoid global etc.


So correct me If I am wrong but daikiba youngs cost about 10 pecs to kill. That means every 30K killed you will see one 400-600 times loot which is a 40-60 ped loot which means 1 global per 30K kills. Then out of those 1 in 150K killed will be 1500 to 7000 times loot or 150-700 ped hof. So on a baby mob like Daikiba young its gonna look like you hit a uber almost every 5 globals.

Same thing happens with merps you will see 5 small globals for every one uber or near 1000 ped hof.

this will happen with any any every mob that had a low cost to kill.
 
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This is very interesting, and by keeping an eye on the announcements for globals and HOFs i had noticed something similar, and yes there seems to be more globals from lesser mobs, but by crunching numbers and using my own experiences of the past 2 years i came to a conclusion:

I think the reason why the Noobies seem more lucky is volumen, there are dozens of noobies for every ubber player, since they can not hunt big game they tend to concentrate on low level mobs, so there are dozen of noobies hunting similar level mobs compare to ubbers hunting high level mobs.

Let me be honest for a moment, if i have the means and the desire to hunt, i wont hunt combibo unless they are stalker or prowlers, same goes for exos and Daikibas, i recently found that i can kill atrox young to old without an armor, just fapping a few times to buy me time until they drop so of course i have been experimenting with that.

Oh well, just an observation :ahh:
 
I`ve always said this, that noobs get bonus loot from MA as initial incentive. I had numerous proof and examples of statistically very improbable cases but most people decided to dismiss this for some reason.

A guy from my soc(total 3days noobie) after just 2 days of playing with breerm1 hits 10k argo, something people with thousands of globals haven`t been able to achieve in years and he`s just one out of many examples.

Business wise would make sense for the system to work like this following "first hit is free" strategy so to speak. :)
It could be that MA decided to reinvest some of the profits they take by giving out promo hofs to avatars flagged as noobies by some algorithm .
 
I would agree with this I think their is a new player bonus loot, and possible a 1st year anniversary bonus loot to those who depot and played alot first year.

Mikass said:
I`ve always said this, that noobs get bonus loot from MA as initial incentive. I had numerous proof and examples of statistically very improbable cases but most people decided to dismiss this for some reason.

A guy from my soc(total 3days noobie) after just 2 days of playing with breerm1 hits 10k argo, something people with thousands of globals haven`t been able to achieve in years and he`s just one out of many examples.

Business wise would make sense for the system to work like this following "first hit is free" strategy so to speak. :)
It could be that MA decided to reinvest some of the profits they take by giving out promo hofs to avatars flagged as noobies by some algorithm .
Click to expand...
 
You left out Mega's suggestion as well as, Drone, Tripudion, Faux, Merp :). The thing that was weird is how I got my first hof ingame was right after my first ever deposit. Then only last week did I just get a loot almost an uber which almost in a way doubled the previous, ofc I took heavy loses on the daikiba mission :rolleyes:. But thank you for this info Starfinder, whatever it may mean :).
 
Here is a better test I would like to see inspired by mega.

Take players with less then 50 globals, take the total # of drone ubers they have and then divide by the number of drone globals.

Then take players with more then 50 globals take the total # of drone ubers then divide by the total number of drone globals.

repeat the same test for all mobs you can.

You need to compare same mobs in both groups not all mobs since my previous posts already shows that the uber to global ratio on smaller mobs is going to skrew results.
 
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While I have never experienced this hunting I always have refered to what I call a sucker global. Most often in crafting where a total noob trying an item for the first time globals or better. It happened to me several times in the past and then successive attempts result in the usual failure. Like they are meant to suck you in and make you think it`s going to be easy then you end up putting more back trying than they gave you.

Pre vu10 there used to be what a few friends and I called Molisk Hill near the old swamp camp. You could go there to the same spawn of just 2 lone molisk young-scout and global almost every time. It was like a noob give away. Of course plenty of people knew about it. I have`nt found anything similar since.

I`m almost sure MA sites up little things to entice new players or players venturing into new areas. Just like a drug dealer. The first one might be free but you`ll pay for the rest! :laugh:
 
I miss Molisk hill I use to enjoy hunting there ;(

Thorn said:
While I have never experienced this hunting I always have refered to what I call a sucker global. Most often in crafting where a total noob trying an item for the first time globals or better. It happened to me several times in the past and then successive attempts result in the usual failure. Like they are meant to suck you in and make you think it`s going to be easy then you end up putting more back trying than they gave you.

Pre vu10 there used to be what a few friends and I called Molisk Hill near the old swamp camp. You could go there to the same spawn of just 2 lone molisk young-scout and global almost every time. It was like a noob give away. Of course plenty of people knew about it. I have`nt found anything similar since.

I`m almost sure MA sites up little things to entice new players or players venturing into new areas. Just like a drug dealer. The first one might be free but you`ll pay for the rest! :laugh:
Click to expand...
 
I propose to MA to let any noob to make profit/ubers on any noob mobs ..anyway what they'll do with money? withdrawal? no way! they will trust to deposit then will spend on fashion stuff and biger mobs/gears/shits . so finally all money+desposit came back in pool but the noob was happy to be a God for shortime and now he can learn how to play :p
 
This is no joke, got me first global after 1 year playing, noobs seem to get better loot. Ive hunted lots of high mobs and its worth nothing.
 
Interesting point but your math is missing a large part of the equation. You need to know the ratio of newbs to ubers. For this example we will call it 100:1 so;
So you got one uber hunting a prot and 100 newbs hunting dakiba and such. In the time it takes that uber to kill one port those newbs could kill 200 dakiba collectively. So in this example 200 times more newb mobs are killed. So in a week lets say that some 200k dakiba are killed. Is it really surprising that one of them hofed?
Of coarse I just pulled these numbers out of the air, but I think there are a lot more newbs then ubers in game, and thus more newb creatures being killed.
 
I've always said that there's a noob luck boost, though MA have denied it in the past.

It's true that the numbers are not really comparable for big mobs v small mobs, but I think the way that Starfinder is defining ubers balances this out somewhat - things like a 700 PED Daikiba for example are not factored into the equation, whereas a 1k Leviathan would be, and I'm sure a 700 PED Daikiba is a more exceptional loot than a 1k Leviathan.

The one-mob analysis Poppy suggested would be very interesting.

For me the worst thing about noob luck is that's a terrible retention strategy. People who I've known or seen in the past getting early big loots have in most cases withdrawn their winnings and quit.
 
Another question is whether noobs have a higher chance of losing their winnings to the system than long term players.
 
Reason for editing: frustration lol
 
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PopFuzz said:
my problem with this is that you are comparing apples to oranges. The rate of uber multipliers per # of mobs killed is very similar. Rate of globals to mobs killed is not.
My estimate is that mobs on avg hit a 400-600 times cost to kill every 30-40K killed and one 1500 times or more every 150K killed etc.

Small baby mobs just don't global on your normal global mulplier. You wont see globals on Daikiba youngs till you hit one of those rare 400-500 times loots. So it may be 30K mobs killed for each Daikiba Young global but only 100 kills per Fefoid global etc.


So correct me If I am wrong but daikiba youngs cost about 10 pecs to kill. That means every 30K killed you will see one 400-600 times loot which is a 40-60 ped loot which means 1 global per 30K kills. Then out of those 1 in 150K killed will be 1500 to 7000 times loot or 150-700 ped hof. So on a baby mob like Daikiba young its gonna look like you hit a uber almost every 5 globals.

Same thing happens with merps you will see 5 small globals for every one uber or near 1000 ped hof.

this will happen with any any every mob that had a low cost to kill.
Click to expand...

this :wise:
 
Kristoliquid said:
This is no joke, got me first global after 1 year playing, noobs seem to get better loot. Ive hunted lots of high mobs and its worth nothing.
Click to expand...

Is this for real - a whole year hunting and 1 fekking global - what a waste of time and money
 
Sachi said:
Another question is whether noobs have a higher chance of losing their winnings to the system than long term players.
Click to expand...

That depends a lot on the person's self-control and eco in my opinion.
Long-term players generally have more self-control & eco than the usual uber'ing newbie/noob so they will likely have their uber going further.

e.g. 1000 PED HoF with an Opalo+A101, if they continue same sized hunts as regularly or slightly more often than before the PED will last seemingly forever. Where as if they buy a bigger gun and have larger hunts, the PED will obviously be used up faster.
 
I assume based on your mention of ubering on specific mobs vs. material or BPs that you only check the hunting DB. If I'm wrong, please let me know.

So you compared all people with less than 50 non-team hunting globals to all people w/ 50 or more non-team hunting globals. Kind of a small to large group comparison. Many hunters log more than 50 globals in a month. I clocked 160 since you started even while focusing on mining for over a year. And uber I am not.

Try comparing the uber ratio for say, 50 or less globals to those of say more than 500 or even 1,000 globals (non-team hunting globals of course)


Also, is it possible that less ubers and more globals is an indication of more steady loot brought on by better hunting gear, skills & tactics? Beginners are apt to make many ped-burning mistakes.

'Course I'm not talking about the 3-day uber hitter. I'm talking about "beginners" like my wife who hit hunting ubers after quite a bit of poor returns on condition crafting.
 
@ starfinder i won't say my opinion here check your pm box
 
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