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The Sky is Falling!

Entropia Dao

Entropia Dao

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Dec 10, 2021
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128
I don't know why first used this phrase within Entropia, but we start seeing a lot of the forum in 2008 and 2009.

The reason for making this thread is not to say the sky is falling. It is a prelude to all the "sky is falling" threads that will be made in the second half of this year.
Without going into detail about real life events, we can foresee a situation quite similar as the one in 2008-2009; if not of a bigger magnitude.

I predict that markup on items will fall by an average of 30% by the end of the year and will take a couple years to recover. Some items will never recover because MA will introduce new ones who's stats surpass the old ones.

Now this seems bad, but in the long run it isn't. Most of us bought our gear to use for years to come. Unless you sell you don't lose peds. And even if you will never get the price you paid for it, at least you can enjoy the items forever. Resellers will be most screwed because they can't make money until the market bottoms out. But only resellers care about resellers I guess.

So at the end of the day, every time you see a sky thread you can link here and remind them that this is temporary and the best action to take is not to react.
Don't start panic selling; or opportunistic buying either (unless you are willing to keep the item long time).

What you should do is watch. Watch how people react. Watch how the prices of items evolve and watch what MA will do.
Take notes and learn. The 2009 crisis taught me some insights and gave me a feel for how a crisis plays out. Both in Entropia and Real Life.

Whatever you do, keep your head cool and take some distance.

enjoy the rain ☂️
 
Running off with the Russians money in the name of morality will certainly hurt investor confidence in the future. We all know that legally their hands were tied as they can't send money into Russia with the current RL sanctions, but their wording of their statement will be a permanent stain on their image going forward.
 
I don't know how many Russians players there were (and prolly still are).

What I do know is that for example entropialife shows:
1925 Ares ring improved or better have been dropped, which is enough to supply every currently active hunter with a ring and still have some spare ones left. Not to mention they keep on dropping weekly.
Still the improved goes for tt+755.

This is just one example of a bubble that will totally burst once the market slides a bit down a people get worried.
Ares rings will drop the most in value, since there is already an oversupply that is just held back by resellers.

I wonder how many other of those bubbles will burst at the slightest disruption? Maybe people will realize they don't need that many armors anymore since decay is mostly similar and payed back in loot.

I see things looking a lot like the end of 2009, at the end of this year. And it might be the most healthy thing for Entropia moving forward.
 
It won't matter. More crap will be created over time. We have an entirely new game engine to advertise soon so gonna have to spam tons of new items in globals to make it look interesting.
 
Aliens are coming
 
moondog said:
WTB CLD at 1000 ped ..........
Click to expand...

CLD will probably drop the least in value.
Not that they are not overrated at current markup, but they have a stable economic value.
Items only have a perceived value. Many will disagree but, economically speaking.
You can discuss the profitability of an item until the cows come home, but the weekly ROI of CLD has been documented and is at least in part to the income of the planet partner and MA's income calculations.
 
Time to invest in lysterium :p
 
SoberPhil said:
Time to invest in lysterium :p
Click to expand...

Interesting thing you bring up.
While there was a brief time when lyst went up in value, years ago, if I remember correctly, there is no way to predict what new BP will trigger a new rise in a certain material.

The closest thing I can think about is to follow the way MA sees things. What brings MA money and what route do they take?
It seems tier upgrades are lucrative for them and with a lot of new items (mayhem) being introduced, their is a lot of tiering going to go on.

Even if prices and spending go down, people will rather invest in a new tier than buying a new item.
There is something psychological about tiering, where because you can gather your own materials, the cost seems lower than it actually is.

Other materials that will keep their value are oil, force nexus and sweet stuff; because they have a use besides crafting.
Most other crafting materials will never have good markup again unless crafting dramatically changes. Which it won't in the short run because MA is concentrating their efforts on the new engine.

other special materials like mushroom will also slowly drop in value, unless MA releases a new upgrade path.
The thing is, what direction is MA going? EP4 and mayhem bring much income. Does an item upgrade bring them that much income in the end?


There seems to be nowhere to hide. You can buy some materials but what is the difference of sitting on pure ped for example or even investing in shares or deeds?
Well, even if some materials go up in price, you'll have to wait and it is a gamble. Deeds are not a big gamble, but will lose a bit of markup since their ROI at current prices is low. Shares are a bad investment at current prices.

You can redraw ped, wait two months and invest them in an index fund until prices in EU bottom out.
If you have a lot of money invested in game this might be the best option in the end. redraw, wait six months to a year and then put it back in,
preferably buying boxes if they drop things with markup and you have a gun or mining gear to cycle through the universal ammo.

But yes, unlike RL, MA doesn't have any commodities like silver and gold.
 
Entropia Dao said:
I don't know how many Russians players there were (and prolly still are).

What I do know is that for example entropialife shows:
1925 Ares ring improved or better have been dropped, which is enough to supply every currently active hunter with a ring and still have some spare ones left. Not to mention they keep on dropping weekly.
Still the improved goes for tt+755.

This is just one example of a bubble that will totally burst once the market slides a bit down a people get worried.
Ares rings will drop the most in value, since there is already an oversupply that is just held back by resellers.

I wonder how many other of those bubbles will burst at the slightest disruption? Maybe people will realize they don't need that many armors anymore since decay is mostly similar and payed back in loot.

I see things looking a lot like the end of 2009, at the end of this year. And it might be the most healthy thing for Entropia moving forward.
Click to expand...
This is an example of how markups in game have nothing to do with supply vs demand and everything to do with people who have more money than sense who also have exactly ZERO patience.

A) You've got nuts that BUY BUY BUY now at whatever price because they want it now and don't want to wait even a day for a better deal regardless of daily sales volume. They see the price listed and just shrug and go "I guess that's the price and I've got money to burn". Then they regret buying it, relist for MORE than they paid less than 48 hours later which someone else buys ...and the circle of moronic behavior continues driving the price through the roof. Until of course, the bigger sucker theory plays out to it's end and the last person is left holding the bag of an item they paid way too much for and it flips the script into "panic sell mode" where they buy and sell for less than they paid over and over crashing the market back down. Others see the market on that item crashing and panic sell theirs too which drives the price down further... much as described below. Meanwhile, the smart players are on the sidelines waiting to buy this stuff at rock bottom lows to sell for profit later.

B) You've got nuts that SELL SELL SELL now at whatever price they can get with their only market strategy being to list at the lowest price in auction. Doesn't matter that there's 3 in auction at normal prices and the charts show that 5 have sold every day for the past decade so they will ALL sell within 24 hours. They list well under the cheapest listed item because "me first" or "I've gotta sell before things tank further".... then 20 minutes later another person undercuts them, then they cancel and relist under that person.... and on and on crashing the markup through the floor because a couple morons can't wait 24 hours for their shit to sell because they're trying to play this game with a $0.04 a day budget and exactly zero bankroll for holding/auctioning loots.... "Gotta flash sell now so I've got a couple peds to do another run!!" These are also the people that bitch that they are getting 65% returns and have to deposit every other day.

The market stabilizes when the extremists in both of these cases eventually go bust and leave the game. Many things are overinflated right now (some things are well undervalued too) but it's all about ebbs and flows...
 
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This happens every few months. Has done since this game started 🫣
people need money in real life, this should be the first place you turn to before other investments.
 
jambon said:
This is an example of how markups in game have nothing to do with supply vs demand and everything to do with people who have more money than sense who also have exactly ZERO patience.

...
Click to expand...

Sadly this seems to be more and more true for RL stock markets.

From what I see your A example works more on UL items and your B example on resources.

What I find most interesting is that I though that EU as an RCE would represent the workings of a real economy; but most of the things I learned here is more economic psychology that applies to stock markets and trading.
Nevertheless, a really valuable lesson; at least for me.


I however do not agree with your conclusion that the game stabelizes when both extremes leave. Partly because the A group makes money and will not leave unless there is a market upheaval that either hurts there bottom line too much; or prices stale out for a long time and many start feeling they are wasting their time.

Also, there is a group of B that sell stuff cheap because they get a 90%+tt return and don't care too much about waiting around for markup. They care more about hitting "a big one". They are the hunting and mining equivalent of EP4 crafters.
They will always be around, and while they will whine a lot, they keep depositing and MA loves them.
Not all of them complain. Actually most don't. Those are the players that spend 5k USD a year on the game and the reason the game is still around.

Interesting to see what will happen when RL economics play out like predicted.
love to have a discussion with the ppl here. Always love to learn.
 
jambon and Entropia Dao nailed the psychology part well. I would add also one more nuance: auctions as a role playing arena:
- I sell to signal that I exist (it is so thrilling if someone buys myh stuff!).
- I also change myh stackables to turn them to peds, which is also thrilling aspect. Myh junk is actual monney! Then the speed is of importance and I make sure myh stuff is close to cheapest. Never mind if I lose in the process, I lose all the time anyways.
 
SoberPhil said:
Time to invest in lysterium :p
Click to expand...

You know what is funny. I had to think about this post when I see ores and enmatter slightly rising.
While you would think demand would be lower, one has to wonder if people would just stop buying big mining amps first.
If the influx is smaller than the fow out, prices would indeed rise.

I'dd invest in Belk, just a hunch.


Disclaimer: none of these predictions hold true in case of nuclear war.
 
i'll buy all of your gear for 30% less than what i think it's worth. dm me for arrangements.
 
Entropia Dao said:
Will you buy it in November of today's price -30%?

/r wallstreetbets

:D
Click to expand...
i'll buy it right now. what's it worth? take 30% off and give it to me for ped. don't be a pussy, put your money where your mouth is.
 
Rocket192 said:
i'll buy it right now. what's it worth? take 30% off and give it to me for ped. don't be a pussy, put your money where your mouth is.
Click to expand...

That's not how short selling works :scratch2:

Also those 3 rare M tokens I looted don't seem tradable (J/K)


edit: but if you give me 100k ped now, I promise you to give a bunch of rings and other stuff worth Today's value of 130k In November.
(mostly Ares rings and some crafted stuff)
 
this entire thread is retarded, don't talk about shit you don't know about because you spent 14 minutes reading a reddit post by some zoomer from a t4- business school who thinks he knows how capital markets work because he can sling around $10k from his studio appartment his mother pays for.

not just that but 3.5 months in game and you can make these claims? jfc we should be holding IQ tests before allowing people to start threads on here.

i'll reform the offer. you give me your high value items you hold now for whatever they're worth to secure a loan i give you at 15% APR and then you can buy them back from me at 30% of whatever the principal was in november, we'll see who ends up on top at the end of it
 
Rocket192 said:
this entire thread is retarded, don't talk about shit you don't know about because you spent 14 minutes reading a reddit post by some zoomer from a t4- business school who thinks he knows how capital markets work because he can sling around $10k from his studio appartment his mother pays for.

not just that but 3.5 months in game and you can make these claims? jfc we should be holding IQ tests before allowing people to start threads on here.

i'll reform the offer. you give me your high value items you hold now for whatever they're worth to secure a loan i give you at 15% APR and then you can buy them back from me at 30% of whatever the principal was in november, we'll see who ends up on top at the end of it
Click to expand...

You know, I would do that. But would it just be simpler to sell those items now, and buy them back in November?

Also, I'm against IQ test, since the least smart people I know have high IQs (me included).

Third, I started playing back in 2005. I just sold out after 12 years. Now I realize I miss the game. Some form of Nostalgia I guess.
Most funnily, I sold out after making constant profit, because I realized that it started feeling like work.

Fourth, the point of a game (and I consider EU a game) is that you don't have to put your money where your mouth is.
I can make a claim like what the title says, and check out in autumn if I was right or wrong. The only thing that might hurt is my ego if I'm proven wrong.


But hey, if you don't think the market will follow RL economic conditions, please make your remarks. Maybe you are right and I learn something.
Or maybe you don't believe that anything is going to happen in RL, in which case, please explain. I really want to know your reasoning on that one.
 
sweating =/= playing
 
Rocket192 said:
sweating =/= playing
Click to expand...

Two faced is the man that has a sales thread because he is going to play less by the end of May and who also claims that the price bubble will remain.

Or does he not realize that he will not be the only one selling some redundant gear because the world is opening up, summer is coming and Mayhems are everything that counts nowadays anyway?

Anyways, you play your role in the scheme of things. Many came before you, many shall after;
as the seasons mark the passage of time.
 
As I said earlier. These are the same conversations that have happened since the first year of this game.

Prices have never been higher..
 
For every reasonable person on earth, we have 10 morons. Nuclear war is the solution! Can't wait!

PS! Could we get offline version of EU, so I can keep playing from my bunker?
 
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