Question: What should MA do about loot waves?

What should MA do about loot waves?

  • 1. Current loot system works just fine - leave as is

  • 2. Perhaps there should be some content that is wave-free, i.e. more consistent loot

  • 3. Split up content so it's about half and half - 50% with loot waves, and 50% without loot waves

  • 4. Content with loot waves should be reduced; majority content should be wave-free

  • 5. I believe there is a place for loot waves within my profession; needs balancing though

  • 6.Some areas could benefit from loot wave mechanics but this should be isolated and optional content

  • 7. Resource waves ruin the Mining profession; remove all Resource waves

  • 8. Waves of "Rares" in Hunting are totally unnecessary; they need to be removed

  • 9. BP drop waves need to be removed from Crafting; just make things more consistent for everybody

  • 10. Eliminate all waves! There should be no waves in this game, period!


Results are only viewable after voting.
Hmmm :unsure:

Well so far I think these Poll results are mostly inconclusive... I mean, only 82.7% of people said "Eliminate all waves!", so I think we'll have to do a lot more Polling to figure out if people want more, or less waves... Hard to tell :rolleyes:

/sarcasm mode off
Without the "waves" there is no point to playing... Your loot will be the same for every mob. How boring...
 
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This poll is designed to answer only 1 question:
i dont like even "light mind essence wave" (some miners know how it was a signal)

but the poll is like asking "should we remove the speed limit on the autoroutes?"
this is not a Democracy
resource control resembles a communism
but this is really a dispotic Monarchy.
there is no way to alter a System that MA finds "Wroking" and with working i mean "prucing profit, allow to skill up and is profitable for the 10% of people that read out notes and stick to what we say tehy should to make more ped than they spend"

If a wave was not every 50--70 minute but every 50-70 seconds it would be perceived as non existent but its loots would be 1/60th of what NOW the system believes is to be dropped by creatures.

I worked in capital markets, follow the river flow... or you are a Salmon and some bear will eat you while you go against the flow
 
Wave
Set timer.
Wave
Stop timer
Repeat.

wave every 21min

shoot for wave high dps.

logoff

go buy new house
Thankyou..

I mean this is one way of combating the wave, abuse it until it changes..
 
Not sure if its good another proposition,i just woke up so maybe you wrote something similar.Brain not working before 1st coffee.
Maybe a suggestion : loot waves for majority in entropia for some time with balanced loot / rare included where a few could hit big and it would be random not a specific place mob/ so they could take all the profit..i think it would motivate a lot of hunters/ miners to do some..Tbh withing all this crap lately i am slowly losing the nerve,no motivation ... result is well known...
Hopefuly i didnt interrupt voting.
Cheers
 
Why is it waves and not RNG?

It is RNG. People go an hour and not get what they want, then turn around and victimize themselves by saying MA made it so that it was impossible for them to loot it the past hour.
 
It is RNG. People go an hour and not get what they want, then turn around and victimize themselves by saying MA made it so that it was impossible for them to loot it the past hour.

I am pretty sure that the post you referenced was asking a rhetorical question, not disputing the fact that waves exist. Correct me if I am wrong.

You are one of very few people in the last 10 or so years who still manage to deny the existance of waves, even after MA has made dev notes confirming the waves.
 
I am pretty sure that the post you referenced was asking a rhetorical question, not disputing the fact that waves exist. Correct me if I am wrong.

You are one of very few people in the last 10 or so years who still manage to deny the existance of waves, even after MA has made dev notes confirming the waves.

Rhetorical or not, doesn't matter to me.
I've yet to see any dev notes or statements by MA confirming the existence of waves.
Aside from this, which is in no way any form of confirmation...

Entropia Universe 15.15.0 Release Notes​

  • MindArk has been monitoring the community discussions concerning so-called 'loot waves' and will implement changes in the Loot 2.0 and subsequent Version Updates that will address this issue by improving the distribution of resources and items, with the goal of ensuring that loot opportunities are more interesting, dynamic and fair for all participants.

See how that is worded? so-called loot waves? As in an idea constructed by the community? So fast forward today and you will find that people are still talking about it. Because when you involve random into the mix, there is always a possibility of observing so called 'waves' after the fact. Even after they made loot less volatile to try and mitigate that.... That is simply because that is not predetermined, but rather an incidental possibility in any situation where randomness is involved. You will see that in ANY grindy ass MMO that uses RNG.

You have your theory, which only takes one counter observation to be disproven. And that's happened again and again. So what's next? You guys go further into this rabbit hole making up even more outrageous theories that again... can't be proven. If the loot was predetermined in such a way, people would be able to map it out, and take full advantage by cycling only when the supposed waves are present. Which is bad for MA and the players.. So why on earth would MA, a company that lives by the law of large numbers, make the extra effort of implementing such a complicated design.... that is open to being exploited? And if they did, why hasn't it been exploited???

Its not MA that is scaring potential players away, it is you.
 
If the loot was predetermined in such a way, people would be able to map it out, and take full advantage by cycling only when the supposed waves are present. Which is bad for MA and the players..

This was exactly what happened, and thus changes were made. It is now happening again, and changes might be made. Hence this poll and the discussions.

As for why? Some people theorize that having a completely random system would make this gambling. I, myself, do not know why.

See how that is worded? so-called loot waves? As in an idea constructed by the community?

That just means EDIT: might just mean that "loot waves" is not what they call them internally. It does not infer that the system does not exist. This is a way of communicating in a language that is understood by the consumer. It is likely that if they posted it with the same term they use internally, we would not know what they were talking about, unless further description was provided.
 
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Well, even games that include skill and knowledge against other players and not just 'the bank' are considered gambling in many places, so it's a tricky field, but purely random games such as normal roulette are certainly under the gambling flag.
(There is a version of roulette where both players and staff are expert at trying to predict or hit sectors of the wheel, including cleaning/waxing the wheel and changing the ball out. Here the players only place their bets after the ball has been spun into play to avoid a staff advantage above the intrinsic odds advantage, but that is crazy stuff!)
It has been surmised that MA were able to satisfy the authorities at least enough that EU is a game of learning and skill. I can understand any caution (also around boxes, by the way).
Your last paragrah: - it might mean they have a different term internally. Please don't fall into the 'only possibility' error like others. I like you :). Also, communicating with us in a language we understand? Gotta laugh at various levels there, but I get what you're saying :)
 
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I wasn't here before loot 2.0, I can only doubt it was not because loot waves ever existed given the lack of logic behind them. I'm confident further research will suggest a general dissatisfaction of the volatile nature of the loot which would have influenced increased discussions of theories. No one is currently exploiting a non-existent design. If anyone were to ask you to show who is exploiting it, you will very likely say you don't know because they keep it a secret. Anyone who says they do have it mapped out, isn't exactly swimming in ped now are they?

"As for why?" Don't answer that with "because gambling". Because the game has other traits that make it a skill based mmorpg. Fundemental skill based mmorpg traits that effectively create barriers that casinos do not have. If you don't know, it's because there is a clear lack of logic behind this supposed design.

That just means that "loot waves" is not what they call them internally. It does not infer that the system does not exist. This is a way of communicating in a language that is understood by the consumer. It is likely that if they posted it with the same term they use internally, we would not know what they were talking about, unless further description was provided.

You can interpret that however you like. But you say it is likely they did so and so because (made up reason that supports your theory), all while there is still no conclusive evidence to support your theory, and whole alotta evidence that disproves it.
 
The people saying that no loot waves = gambling are completely wrong. Gambling means that you have no control over your outcome, which the game has Eff and looter levels to bring up your return % (Which is classified as control over your outcome). Having no loot waves would only make the ITEMS random, not your tt returns, so its not gambling.
 
Rhetorical or not, doesn't matter to me.
I've yet to see any dev notes or statements by MA confirming the existence of waves.
Aside from this, which is in no way any form of confirmation...

Entropia Universe 15.15.0 Release Notes​



See how that is worded? so-called loot waves? As in an idea constructed by the community? So fast forward today and you will find that people are still talking about it. Because when you involve random into the mix, there is always a possibility of observing so called 'waves' after the fact. Even after they made loot less volatile to try and mitigate that.... That is simply because that is not predetermined, but rather an incidental possibility in any situation where randomness is involved. You will see that in ANY grindy ass MMO that uses RNG.

You have your theory, which only takes one counter observation to be disproven. And that's happened again and again. So what's next? You guys go further into this rabbit hole making up even more outrageous theories that again... can't be proven. If the loot was predetermined in such a way, people would be able to map it out, and take full advantage by cycling only when the supposed waves are present. Which is bad for MA and the players.. So why on earth would MA, a company that lives by the law of large numbers, make the extra effort of implementing such a complicated design.... that is open to being exploited? And if they did, why hasn't it been exploited???

Its not MA that is scaring potential players away, it is you.
Loot wave theory was effectively proven by the so-called "happy hour" controversy from earlier this week.

Some loot in loot pools is injected based on a timer, not from pure RNG.
 
No one is currently exploiting a non-existent design. If anyone were to ask you to show who is exploiting it, you will very likely say you don't know because they keep it a secret. Anyone who says they do have it mapped out, isn't exactly swimming in ped now are they?

There is a significant number of people that I know of that are adjusting their playstyle to fit the "waves". Whether that is "not shooting" while under the impression that there is no wave, or it is using alt-characters to "witness" a wave before shooting, or it is hunting a different creature while under the impression that there is a wave. Whether or not they are doing well is unknown to me. I have witnessed a number of people successfully pull it off during the recent Cyrene event fairly well and as such has managed to get a higher average MU than myself, who was shooting as much as I could, when I could. This could all be coincidental, and I am sure you will present it as such.

"As for why?" Don't answer that with "because gambling". Because the game has other traits that make it a skill based mmorpg. Fundemental skill based mmorpg traits that effectively create barriers that casinos do not have.

This has been my understanding of it as well, hence the "Others theorize, I do not know". I am not a lawyer, and therefor not fit to make assumptions regarding this.

If you don't know, it's because there is a clear lack of logic behind this supposed design.

As I am sure you remember from our discussion in the other thread, you know why I think it is implemented this way. That is not to say I know why it is. I have my theories that will remain just that, theories. There is no way for me to make it anything other than a theory until MindArk comes forth and actually describes their reasoning (Something that I think is very unlikely). Once again, just because we do not understand the logic behind something, does not mean there is no logic.

You can interpret that however you like. But you say it is likely they did so and so because (made up reason that supports your theory), all while there is still no conclusive evidence to support your theory, and whole alotta evidence that disproves it.

Yes, it is indeed a made up reason. I was hypothesizing. And as such I have edited my original post to sound less conclusive. There is absolutely no conclusive evidence that supports that hypothesis. Just like there is absolutely no conclusive evidence that disproves it. Well, at least not for the part you were quoting.
 
This poll is designed to answer only 1 question: "Does the current loot system of waves have any merit at all? I.e. to what extent do we want it to be present in the game?"

I probably could/should have designed a poll that goes deeper and also looks at alternatives, but this would have distracted from the first and primary question of do we even want this system and to what degree should it remain.

Having settled that question first, then we can move forward from that and poll for what exactly would people prefer instead. However that will always be a lesser question because it is only a hypothetical; people have to imagine something which doesn't exist and they won't actually know what that will actually be like in reality until they experience it.
In that case, I would modify my stance to, "I think the community may be approaching these two questions in an ill-suited order." It should first be noted that the order in which individual conclusions are drawn will, in general, affect the overall verdict. The McKelvey–Schofield Chaos Theorem tells us this much. How then should a suitable sequence be recognized? I don't know that there is a universal algorithm, but the condition of being "only a hypothetical" doesn't seem to cut it. Applied in other contexts, such a litmus test would warrant deciding to change a school attendance policy without considering what the new policy should be ("I don't know if students should be allowed to miss a greater or fewer number of days, that's a mere hypothetical anyhow, I just want to change it"), modify an investment portfolio without considering what assets are available in the market, or perform a surgery on a patient without considering which procedure, if any, would cure them. Basic cost-benefit analysis demands upfront consideration of downstream hypotheticals. We can't really escape that fact. Isolating decisions in a methodological ignorance of future, associated decisions is a recipe for nearly assured disaster.

How might such a disaster play out in this context? You've stated that about 50% of players want loot waves gone. Presumably these players have specific reasons for their preference. Some may object to the property that certain time zones could receive preferential treatment over others. One possible solution to this would be to adjust the period of the waves so that there is no longer such asymmetry, on average, between time zones. Some may object to the property that game play during the descending half-period of a wave has a negative psychological quality, as loot keeps getting worse, on average, the longer one plays. One possible solution to this would be to remove loot waves, and insert some other periodic function, such as an ascending sawtooth which ramps up and then abruptly returns to its minimum value before reascending. Some may object to the property that loot waves are too easy to identify, and thus the advantage of discovering them gets arbitraged away too quickly. One possible solution to this would be to go beyond basic periodic functions and implement something more dynamic and interesting.

Some players may actually have a fundamental preference to reduce Entropia to an F-mashing RNG-fest, whereby an individual player's agency has little to no effect on the outcomes he or she experiences, and thus genuinely aim to remove the loot wave system without searching for a replacement. It is somewhat unclear why anyone would need Entropia to attain this type of gameplay experience; any online random number generator is good enough, and there are plenty of games in the vein of Marbles On Stream that can paint a pretty aesthetic atop the same fundamental random number generator "game" mechanic. More realistically, some players may be missing the forest for the trees, advocating for the pure chance proposal without seeing the broader processes of strategy-space degradation unfolding.

Perhaps some who advocate for this proposal want to reduce this aspect, but not other aspects of player agency from Entropia. Unfortunately, the arguments actually given in favor of the pure chance proposal are so vague and indiscriminate that they would, if accepted, also necessitate abandoning just about every other aspect of meaningful player agency. If the arguments were of the form, "because factors A, B, C, D, and E are all present, this is actually a situation that calls for ignoring or intentionally reducing strategic-richness in the loot system," then players could reasonably debate the merits of the arguments, but at least the proposals would have some degree of prima facie sanity. The most radical arguments here, by contrast, appear to be grounded in conditions so weak that they would, if sound, threaten to incidentally undermine very large portions of the Entropia experience. It is of little consequence that those pressing the radical arguments may not wish to also implement their far-reaching implications. By failing to explicate the necessary qualifications, they are still setting the stage for disaster.

This is not, by the way, a criticism of this thread in particular, but of our boarder angle of attacking the loot wave question as a community thus far. I think the players who don't like loot waves probably have a lot of valuable ideas for how to alter or replace them, but the least productive ideas are being foregrounded by the trajectory of the conversation. So the potential disaster is that we might cultivate a strong anti-loot-wave sentiment in the community based on surface level agreement that the system isn't great as is, but then, in our state of resolved insistence that "something has to change," settle for the lousiest, low-hanging fruit available, the pure chance proposal.

Note that if the pure chance proposal did get implemented, I doubt we would see much regret stated explicitly. What we would observe is even more boredom, more complaining that Entropia is nothing but F F F F, more impatience with planet partner update turnaround times even as the pace of new content remains constant or increases. The narrative would be almost solely focused on the quantity of higher level planet partner content, but the real problem would be that content growing decreasingly effective at holding our interest, an array of houses built on sand, as we slowly excise elements of entertainment value from Entropia's foundations over time rather than strengthen them.
 
What should MA do about loot waves?


I waited, and I waited some more. So, which option do I pick?

Option 10 doesn't cover it.

My way is the only way to be sure.
 
The people saying that no loot waves = gambling are completely wrong. Gambling means that you have no control over your outcome, which the game has Eff and looter levels to bring up your return % (Which is classified as control over your outcome). Having no loot waves would only make the ITEMS random, not your tt returns, so its not gambling.
That's still gambling, items have value. Consider that even opening boxes is considered gambling when full tt is returned.
 
That's still gambling, items have value. Consider that even opening boxes is considered gambling when full tt is returned.
Just because something has value doesn't mean its gambling if its random. Boxes aren't gambling because MA guarantees you what you paid, they don't care about MU.
 
Just because something has value doesn't mean its gambling if its random. Boxes aren't gambling because MA guarantees you what you paid, they don't care about MU.
The gambling part is whether your country's authorities understand that or not. Or if they do, clamp down on it anyway just because they can.

Re. topic: Is it really ascertained that we still have regularly exploitable loot waves despite the developer's claim to the contrary? It is tricky to get an answer to this question at all because of the understandable bias of anyone who would know the answer is a definite yes. The rest just believes something. Just to be clear, under loot waves I would not understand the "accidents" we've seen several times that rare items drop to the same person or within a short time as soon as they are added to the pool (if things are as obvious as they seem in this case).
 
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Just because something has value doesn't mean its gambling if its random. Boxes aren't gambling because MA guarantees you what you paid, they don't care about MU.
Ofcourse they care about MU. Do you believe if you open at least 15.000 seasonal boxes you will get at least 1 seasonal ring? Cause i can tell you for sure you wont!
 
In that case, I would modify my stance to, ...
#78 has to be the closest I have ever seen here to elements of a publishable paper on ... hmmm, psychology?, game theory?, futurology?, well something :p
I think it should be noted, however, that many people, actually a vast majority, do not understand statistics well enough to take advantage of the frameworks of a game setting. Whilst a weekly national lottery is random as far as the balls drawn is concerned, did you know that the winnings themselves are not? It is actually a pvp environment :p. Unfortunately, due to the exceedingly high rake and payout for the jackpot, players cannot individually push the odds in favour of realistically winning in the long run, but there is still an edge for at least lowering the expected losses and increasing the chances of an 'inverted sawtooth' jump into positive territory.
Depending on the implementation, MA could still have different loot tables for different mobs (slightly different versions of the same game for people to choose from), payout periods based on previous/current turnover, rollovers etc. Players might be able to find a pvp edge not only in mu but also in tt returns, whilst the casino/bank maintains a profitable business.

Do you know of any serious work being done in this field, aside from financial markets? It is something I'd like to explore further in an MMO at some point... !!!
 
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In that case, I would modify my stance to, "I think the community may be approaching these two questions in an ill-suited order." It should first be noted that the order in which individual conclusions are drawn will, in general, affect the overall verdict. The McKelvey–Schofield Chaos Theorem tells us this much. How then should a suitable sequence be recognized? I don't know that there is a universal algorithm, but the condition of being "only a hypothetical" doesn't seem to cut it. Applied in other contexts, such a litmus test would warrant deciding to change a school attendance policy without considering what the new policy should be ("I don't know if students should be allowed to miss a greater or fewer number of days, that's a mere hypothetical anyhow, I just want to change it"), modify an investment portfolio without considering what assets are available in the market, or perform a surgery on a patient without considering which procedure, if any, would cure them. Basic cost-benefit analysis demands upfront consideration of downstream hypotheticals. We can't really escape that fact. Isolating decisions in a methodological ignorance of future, associated decisions is a recipe for nearly assured disaster.

How might such a disaster play out in this context? You've stated that about 50% of players want loot waves gone. Presumably these players have specific reasons for their preference. Some may object to the property that certain time zones could receive preferential treatment over others. One possible solution to this would be to adjust the period of the waves so that there is no longer such asymmetry, on average, between time zones. Some may object to the property that game play during the descending half-period of a wave has a negative psychological quality, as loot keeps getting worse, on average, the longer one plays. One possible solution to this would be to remove loot waves, and insert some other periodic function, such as an ascending sawtooth which ramps up and then abruptly returns to its minimum value before reascending. Some may object to the property that loot waves are too easy to identify, and thus the advantage of discovering them gets arbitraged away too quickly. One possible solution to this would be to go beyond basic periodic functions and implement something more dynamic and interesting.

Some players may actually have a fundamental preference to reduce Entropia to an F-mashing RNG-fest, whereby an individual player's agency has little to no effect on the outcomes he or she experiences, and thus genuinely aim to remove the loot wave system without searching for a replacement. It is somewhat unclear why anyone would need Entropia to attain this type of gameplay experience; any online random number generator is good enough, and there are plenty of games in the vein of Marbles On Stream that can paint a pretty aesthetic atop the same fundamental random number generator "game" mechanic. More realistically, some players may be missing the forest for the trees, advocating for the pure chance proposal without seeing the broader processes of strategy-space degradation unfolding.

Perhaps some who advocate for this proposal want to reduce this aspect, but not other aspects of player agency from Entropia. Unfortunately, the arguments actually given in favor of the pure chance proposal are so vague and indiscriminate that they would, if accepted, also necessitate abandoning just about every other aspect of meaningful player agency. If the arguments were of the form, "because factors A, B, C, D, and E are all present, this is actually a situation that calls for ignoring or intentionally reducing strategic-richness in the loot system," then players could reasonably debate the merits of the arguments, but at least the proposals would have some degree of prima facie sanity. The most radical arguments here, by contrast, appear to be grounded in conditions so weak that they would, if sound, threaten to incidentally undermine very large portions of the Entropia experience. It is of little consequence that those pressing the radical arguments may not wish to also implement their far-reaching implications. By failing to explicate the necessary qualifications, they are still setting the stage for disaster.

This is not, by the way, a criticism of this thread in particular, but of our boarder angle of attacking the loot wave question as a community thus far. I think the players who don't like loot waves probably have a lot of valuable ideas for how to alter or replace them, but the least productive ideas are being foregrounded by the trajectory of the conversation. So the potential disaster is that we might cultivate a strong anti-loot-wave sentiment in the community based on surface level agreement that the system isn't great as is, but then, in our state of resolved insistence that "something has to change," settle for the lousiest, low-hanging fruit available, the pure chance proposal.

Note that if the pure chance proposal did get implemented, I doubt we would see much regret stated explicitly. What we would observe is even more boredom, more complaining that Entropia is nothing but F F F F, more impatience with planet partner update turnaround times even as the pace of new content remains constant or increases. The narrative would be almost solely focused on the quantity of higher level planet partner content, but the real problem would be that content growing decreasingly effective at holding our interest, an array of houses built on sand, as we slowly excise elements of entertainment value from Entropia's foundations over time rather than strengthen them.

While I DO understand your point and I don't completely disagree with it, would you think that 50% satisfaction from your customers is "good enough", even if you think that there is no better alternative or any more room to improve the service or product?

I certainly would not tolerate those numbers in my business...
 
While I DO understand your point and I don't completely disagree with it, would you think that 50% satisfaction from your customers is "good enough", even if you think that there is no better alternative or any more room to improve the service or product?

I certainly would not tolerate those numbers in my business...
As a satisfaction rating of the product in its totality? Sounds pretty concerning. As a satisfaction rating of a specific design decision? I don't even know what it would mean to use that as a rejection criterion. The most obvious (but not the most serious) problem is that 50% is an untenable threshold. What would MindArk be expected to do under that decision rule if 50% want to get rid of loot waves and 50% want to keep them?

A more serious problem is that the player satisfaction rating depends as much on your modeling decisions as on players' actual preferences. Suppose that for 35% of players', their favorite outcome is to leave loot waves unchanged, for 15%, it is to retain loot waves but improve them with some minor revisions, for 40%, it is to replace loot waves with a system that leads to more dynamic and interesting game play decisions, and for 10%, it is to replace loot waves with a system of pure chance (perhaps because they have not yet shifted from a fixed mindset dwelling on their present outcomes to a growth mindset focused on their long term improvement). What is the actionable takeaway from this data? Should we start by noting that 50% want to keep loot waves and 50% want to remove them, flip a coin, and then go with either the 35% over the 15%, or the 40% over the 10%, depending on the result of the flip? Should we consider all four percentages simultaneously and go with the 40%? Should we further break down the 40% into the specific replacement alternatives subgroups within that group propose, likely resulting in the 35% becoming the majority group? I don't know the answer. I don't know that there is an answer. The point is that even holding preferences constant, varying the details of the model can radically change the resulting narratives about player satisfaction.

The above does not even take into account the reality that each player has multiple ranked preferences. The McKelvey–Schofield Chaos Theorem shows us how deep into arbitrarity we sink under this further ambiguity. Up to vanishingly improbable special cases, you give the theorem any preference profile, and it will tell you how to reach your own target position in the design space via an ordered sequence of majority rule elections (even if your target position is Pareto dominated by the initial position for everyone else).

The problem actually runs even deeper than this. The McKelvey–Schofield Chaos Theorem envisions a fixed set of players, each of which has equally urgent preferences on a per-rank basis. In reality, each of a player's preferences is of non-uniform importance, relative to their other preferences as well as other players' preferences (a wolf's, another wolf's, and a lamb's vote on what's for dinner probably should not receive the same weight, or else what's for dinner will be the lamb). Additionally, trends in developers' game design decisions causally impact the future composition of the playerbase. Games tend to select for those players who enjoy them. Thus the set of players is not fixed, and their aggregate opinion will in time grow somewhat biased toward agreement with development trends. The causation is bidirectional and carves out a trajectory through the design space over time; aggregate player opinion has some impact on the how the game changes, and how the game changes has some impact on aggregate player opinion.

For these and other reasons, the idea of measuring the quality of a game design decision at time n + 1 based on how closely it instantiates aggregate player opinion assessed at time n seems like a nonstarter, or is, at least, far from adequate. This is certainly not to reject the idea of critically assessing developers' game design decisions. It is merely to reject your greedy algorithm as the primary metric for doing so, instead directing focus toward a systems theoretic lens of analysis. Globally oriented questions in the wheelhouse of "How faithfully are developers striving to act in accordance with their key promises and broad vision communicated to innovators and early adopters in the technology adoption life cycle which defined Entropia's fundamental value proposition in the real-world markets it occupies?" are better suited to the bidirectional nature of the developer-player trajectory. By grounding our ideals and criticisms in standards that take cognizance of the trajectory broadly, rather than a single timestep within it, we erect them on a sounder foundation, which developers cannot as easily skirt by manufacturing consent in the playerbase for whatever trajectory their most recent iteration of marketing tactics and short term business metrics call for.

While I would be happy enough with this sort of approach, ultimately Entropia has claim to something even more fundamental than the contingencies of its value proposition formation to guide its development. Entropia has a nature, an essence in its own right. There is something that Entropia is, a concept that extends far beyond what any of us or any of the developers have yet understood in entirety. It is not something literally metaphysically necessary or objective in a Platonic or similar sense, but certainly is greater than the sum of its historical contingencies. None of us really knows how to express Entropia's complete essence. Our words capture only incomplete slices of it. We are blind women and men grasping the concept of the elephant through limited exposure to individual elephant parts. Nevertheless, I suspect most of us share a strong intuition, and synthesize additional perspective over years and decades. My belief is that the closer we get to those fundamentals, the more our mental representations of Entropia roughly converge, in contrast to the wild divergence of our takes on day-to-day controversies. We should mount our standard of success, then, not in how tightly development tracks our day-to-day whims, but in how concordant the dynamic trajectory carved out by the causal interactions between development and our day-to-day whims is with our deepest and most ambitious aims for the Entropia Universe concept, even as we know we will be unable to explicate that concept.
 
#78 has to be the closest I have ever seen here to elements of a publishable paper on ... hmmm, psychology?, game theory?, futurology?, well something :p
I think it should be noted, however, that many people, actually a vast majority, do not understand statistics well enough to take advantage of the frameworks of a game setting. Whilst a weekly national lottery is random as far as the balls drawn is concerned, did you know that the winnings themselves are not? It is actually a pvp environment :p. Unfortunately, due to the exceedingly high rake and payout for the jackpot, players cannot individually push the odds in favour of realistically winning in the long run, but there is still an edge for at least lowering the expected losses and increasing the chances of an 'inverted sawtooth' jump into positive territory.
Depending on the implementation, MA could still have different loot tables for different mobs (slightly different versions of the same game for people to choose from), payout periods based on previous/current turnover, rollovers etc. Players might be able to find a pvp edge not only in mu but also in tt returns, whilst the casino/bank maintains a profitable business.

Do you know of any serious work being done in this field, aside from financial markets? It is something I'd like to explore further in an MMO at some point... !!!
The only thing I could add is that the lottery mechanic is the same as in slot machines with rising jackpots. Beyond this, some casinos even advertise machines with greater than 100% expected payouts, but the catch is they don't tell you which machines are which, and they may rotate each day. The trick is thus gaining information cheaply and quickly enough that you actually earn back your expenses before the information becomes outdated. This practice is detailed in Thinking Strategically: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life by Avinash Dixit and Barry Nalebuff.
 
Make waves with 100x less rare items 100x time more often , problem solved you don't have to wait for the perfect time and can play when you want for the time you want
 
grasping the concept of the elephant through limited exposure to individual elephant parts.
You mean there isn't actually an entire elephant in the room here? I'd have thought there was, along the flipside of the 'doctors don't make good patients' saying, i.e. patients don't make good doctors. In terms of the route to follow, the passengers on average don't make good pilots, but that is no guarantee that the pilot you get is good either.
However, some passengers might be incredibly experienced pilots, but turned down time and time again by 'those at the front of the plane'. I wonder who flies with EU Airways on a regular basis, but stays 'beneath the radar'? :p
 
Make waves with 100x less rare items 100x time more often , problem solved you don't have to wait for the perfect time and can play when you want for the time you want
on some mobs this already exists....
 
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