My theory about loot in general

Warning, a wall of text!

Loot theories, how interesting

My theory is based on what i think would be easy programming and also guarantee that MA does not loose peds, and at the same time explain the 90% returns that most get in the long run.

MA creates all items ingame, and they have decided what the best possible dmg/pec is. From this point they have calculated the cheapest way to kill each mob. From this they have set a payout % of like 99%.

Example: a weapon with eco 3.289dmg/pec (stats from imp mk.II from entropedia) kills creature with 1000hp and low regen. Total cost to kill the creature is (1000/3.289pec =) 304.04....pec.

Now you get a list of X (somewhere around 10k, maby more?) different loot combinations, multiply that number of combinations with the most cost efficient way to kill the mob (in this case (divided by 100 to get peds), (10 000*304.04)/100 = 30 404ped).

This new number would be the total peds divided on those loot combinations, spiced up with some no looters and some Uber HOFs.

Also a number is set for a max loot from that mob, from what I think, it looks like it is based on cost to kill.

Now it is all a matter of spreading those numbers out all over the list for that mob and that maturity (a separate list for all maturities of the same mob, which can be "confirmed" on a mob like scipulor that only drop hl11 from domi+).

Hey, we get an average of 90% return in most loggs and tests!
This would be since we are not hunting the mobs with max efficiency (cheapest cost per kill) and would end up at between 80% and 95% in general.

How about items then?
The list of possible loot combinations would also include the different loot combinations, most likely with a set number for how much TT or how many of a specific item can exist in EU at the same time, maby even compared to number of active users, or at least registered users.
I think that this would also explain comments from MA that all items are still lootable, they are in theory, and if the playerbase grew another mod fap might loot to adjust to the new number of players.

My thinking is that this makes sense since MA would be guaranteed not to loose peds in the long run on any mob.
It would also be quite easy to calculate the loot in each looting situation (for example, just let a random number generator give you a number between 1 and 10k and check the list for the payout)
It would also explain the average 90% TT return that most of us are experiencing (our efficiency is not 100% for that mob).

The dynamic part of the loot (my searches for a definition of dynamic in relation to computers came up with "a random number within a set interval", and another definition would be "always evolving/changing") would also be explained by this theory. The always evolving/changing part would be due to the balancing manager changing what types of items and stackables that can be looted from a specific mob.


Mining would work in the same way, drop a bomb, check towards the list, about 75% of the list consists of NRF, and the other 25% evens out the total payout towards the set max total payout (with a different list for each amp for example).
Also the list would only apply if you are mining with a tool in an area where you can actually find the resource that is in that area.

Same thing with crafting, but here it would just be silly to have a max number of items or max TT of an item in total, so here I think that there is just a straight list of no sucess, near sucess and sucess with various TT value giving a total return of around 99%.
What would reduce your total return here is skills and QR of your BP.


Since it is a random number generator it would also allow for these rare situations that someone kills 10 mobs and get 2 Uber loots, random is random after all, but the total return overtime from that mob would still be under 100%.
It would also explain why some people never get any top loots, it is still random for each specific loot situation, and the odds of getting a big loot is really low.

I think that this would also explain the frequent Massive loots from mobs like small atrox (15k+ each week is about normal), small argo (one 7k - 10k a weak on average), and drones (one 7k - 10k a weak on average), since there is so many players hunting theese mobs, the random number that gives top loot (or atleast top 5 loot from that mob) would hit about once a week.

Does this makes sense?

I think so

Staffas said:

Since it is a random number generator it would also allow for these rare situations that someone kills 10 mobs and get 2 Uber loots, random is random after all, but the total return overtime from that mob would still be under 100%.
It would also explain why some people never get any top loots, it is still random for each specific loot situation, and the odds of getting a big loot is really low.

Does this makes sense?

I think so

Click to expand...

Randomize is entropic and chaotic. However, what you arises is ordered. The same person who take out lottery multiple times, is much less feasible in real life, than what happens in Entropia Universe. And since we are talking about theories, I prefer believe more in a principle that distinguishes avatars from begginings, based in a random way. In similar way, as the "tier increases rates" distinguishes randomly two items that should be the same. I believe that affects the amplitud and wave lenght of curve of lucky cycle but not the 90% return rate.

but theories are only theories... who knows, really, the way in how game is working?

I did find one part of your theory very interesting that fits mine. The rest didnt work at all sry. The part that worked was the max payout part. There are some indications that it dont work that way 100% though. As a guideline its great though.

pregenerated loot tables ( multipliers ) have been on the theory table since 2007 , i assume its possible.

Xavier_Jr said:

but theories are only theories... who knows, really, the way in how game is working?

Click to expand...

Yes.

Theories are created to make people feel more in control of their activity, more so if this activity is random. No loot theory I have seen helps the player to make more peds, but to lose them perhaps with a kind of knowing smile.

However, intuition ( knowledge & experience ) can help the pedcard, but this is not something one can explain - or would wish to share - to others.

Keep on with these mad ideas though, it is entertaining

Peezle said:

Yes.

Theories are created to make people feel more in control of their activity, more so if this activity is random. No loot theory I have seen helps the player to make more peds, but to lose them perhaps with a kind of knowing smile.

However, intuition ( knowledge & experience ) can help the pedcard, but this is not something one can explain - or would wish to share - to others.

Keep on with these mad ideas though, it is entertaining

Click to expand...

To be random, it's just another theory. And probably, by itself, is the worst to explains what happens in the game. However, as nobody here is a Mindak programmer, his theory is also valid as those from the others.

The best thing is to play in the best way as you know and you can. Because sometimes understand others can be tricky.

There are 2 actions to consider. Depositing into the pool and withdrawing from it.

It would make logical sense to assume that there is a pool based upon our observations as a whole. Tools determine what types of resources can be withdrawn from the pool, each one having a fee attached to the withdrawal (decay). Another reason for the pool is that resources can be traded for it's base value at any trade terminal.

But this is nothing new, we as a community of players, know this. We also know as a community that over time we withdraw on average 95% of what we place into the pool, so there is also a fee for depositing into the pool.

Problem is that we as a community do not know how the distribution mechanic works and not many players are interested in looking for it.

Good one

Sane and sensible, this is the best I have read on loot theories so far.

That is about how I think about the loot system too. I do however think there is some kind of personal loot pool that balances the loot returns for every avatar, some luck involved here and there.

I have my own theory about my own returns and if I am correct I should see my next loot swing in the next couple 100peds that I cycle.

My theory : THE BANK WINS EVER !

trance said:

My theory : THE BANK WINS EVER !

Click to expand...

The bank in this case will win as it charges a fee in order to process an activity, weather it transforms ammo into loot or probes into resources, or even loot and resources back into tools.

The system does know how much of each commodity there is as well as the markup and thus is capable of balancing supply and demand.

I look at it the following way with regards to hunting and mining, bare in mind that you are not the only person in this situation and that in order for some persons to win, others must loose. This is a full on PVP game, I am after your ped, and you are after mine.

As for the actual system it uses, well that is easy. It's known as "Entropia". It could be an anagram like for example...

E - Euler's number ie natural log, used in statistics and calculus
n - any natural number
t - time
(rHo : pHi : THETa) spherical coordinate system also noted as "r"

Taking the above into account, the system could be : ----- Spherical Statistics..

http://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/1132/3/03chapter2.pdf. I can only make out a bit of what is written there, but the little piece of calculus on page 5 seems like a pretty good match for "entropia"

I have some evidence to support this.

Are we dealing with a 3d game ? - yes, why would this be important, well as players we are always looking somewhere now aren't we. We also have a 3d coordinate set of where we are on a virtual planet.
Where are we standing, how are we moving, where are we moving too.. The planet could also be using this type of data. Resources were collected at coord x,y,z and were moved to x,y,z. So I need to respawn them at coord x,y,z in t seconds time....

There are SOOOO many hints out there, open your eyes and look....

Pregenerated loot is not possible..

https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?132510-Mining-loot-analysis

"The find size seems to follow a Weibull distribution. The first classes are rather frequent, then drop like in a normal distribution but with a heavy right tail."

"where k > 0 is the shape parameter and λ > 0 is the scale parameter of the distribution. Its complementary cumulative distribution function is a stretched exponential function. The Weibull distribution is related to a number of other probability distributions; in particular, it interpolates between the exponential distribution (k = 1) and the Rayleigh distribution (k = 2).

If the quantity x is a "time-to-failure", the Weibull distribution gives a distribution for which the failure rate is proportional to a power of time. The shape parameter, k, is that power plus one, and so this parameter can be interpreted directly as follows:

A value of k<1 indicates that the failure rate decreases over time. This happens if there is significant "infant mortality", or defective items failing early and the failure rate decreasing over time as the defective items are weeded out of the population.
A value of k=1 indicates that the failure rate is constant over time. This might suggest random external events are causing mortality, or failure.
A value of k>1 indicates that the failure rate increases with time. This happens if there is an "aging" process, or parts that are more likely to fail as time goes on.
" - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weibull_distribution

Basically this simply states, if I am reading it correctly that this distribution which was hinted at, can control loot. Depending on how it is set, it grants and equalizes and denys loot.

What this hints to is payout % is almost guaranteed over time, which is good and bad. This also means that it cannot be beaten.

The bank always wins

But wait there is more.... Failure rates can be applied to tools, ie what is the chance for our mining or weapon to critically fail and produce the wrong results, now this is getting interesting.