Loot-Theory Debunk Thread

Unless you are maxed with that pizza cutter I'm afraid this test probably doesn't mean much.
 
The reason MA want to improve avatars' DPP (or push people to normalize it) is it removes the massive negative-marketing of people pulling 30, 40, 50% returns. If everyone made a happy 95 then there would be far fewer complaints.

While I agree, the problem with this is that if everyone got 95%, then nothing would really have markup anywhere because there would be no risk.
 
aio an ath is nothing when u only use a gun and shoot few mil peds :D
 
The only thing the experiment lacks is long term averages taking into account massive "non-eco" multipliers.

Well while that happens, you need a bankroll to get there. If you have the bankroll, I would imagine eco doesn't matter.

Eco allows you to farm markup for cheaper than others.

Wish people were more active on my log... maybe they will come to the same conclusion as me.
 
I tend to agree with what Aio is writing above.

Back in 2005-2010 I cycled a fair quantity of peds using several old-style weapons (including more than 2 years with imk2 at 80+ pro level) and came to the conclusion that is shown in the old thread I linked.
I stopped playing in 2010 and then came back a few months ago, since then I am still noticing the same loot behavior, only difference being in the fact that my tt-global line has a different slope.

This leads me to think that MA has implemented a single loot algo for all mobs (i.e. same loot distribution function) since the beginning, with a number of parameters which are adjusted manually, automatically or following some sine-wave trend. Looking at Entropialife loots for really big mobs which appear frequently and global often (e.g. big evis) you can even detect which distribution function is used.

Take care,
BBB
 
Unless you are maxed with that pizza cutter I'm afraid this test probably doesn't mean much.

Makes no difference as long as effective dpp is used. In fact, its easier to see how much eco effects returns this way.
 
aio an ath is nothing when u only use a gun and shoot few mil peds :D

? if he shot 5M ped for his ath, that would be 1% of his returns so it matters a bit.

Either way like I said, he made enough cash in the game anyway hah
 
Run 7

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 26.84

Total: 626.03

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 237.13
Oils: 147.5
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 5.09
Other: Polaris Feet L 48.6

Total: 438.33

% Return: 70.02
% Return w/out Armour: 73.15

Notable Loots: 169 Feffox Old
 
Run 8

Cost:

Knife+Amp: 599.19
Armour: 25.23

Total: 624.42

Returns:

Ammo+Shrapnel: 220.83
Oils: 89
Hides/extractors/components/skins: 15.32


Total: 325.15

% Return: 52.07
% Return w/out Armour: 54.26

__

Lolz
 
Makes no difference as long as effective dpp is used. In fact, its easier to see how much eco effects returns this way.

As far as testing, you are adding another variable. You could get bad loot and someone could say "well, it's because you aren't maxed with the weapon", and they could be right. And this has not been proven or disproven so you can't just dismiss it and say only dpp matters.
 
Yes, but hunting Feffox, wearing unL armour, and playing on a Saturday are all variables too.

I'm actually going to call this - I've made my point; I could kill 50,000 Feffox and waste 1M PED and there will still be people saying "oh, you've not hit your multipliers!" or some other mad made-up theory.

People can believe what they want to believe - There's an obvious looting mechanic. There's an obvious cost mechanic. Most people who say different are driven my ulterior motives - they like their ML35 T7, they want to sell some un-eco item... sometimes they're just plain morons.

:girl:
 
Interesting log, subscribed :shots:

Weapon Stats (with skills):

It seems you may not have seen this (I also needed a pointer not long ago):
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?242674-Old-HA-vs-New-HA-non-SIB-weapons

Afaik the weapon compare tool on Entropedia has not been adapted to reflect the changed hit formula. Hence we have to scale/shift the hit profession level to arrive at the correct result, i.e. here 32.9 * 0.6 + 40 = 59.74. This yields 2.116 dpp and 77.88 dps with enhancers as said.

Good luck!
 
Interesting log, subscribed :shots:



It seems you may not have seen this (I also needed a pointer not long ago):
https://www.planetcalypsoforum.com/forums/showthread.php?242674-Old-HA-vs-New-HA-non-SIB-weapons

Afaik the weapon compare tool on Entropedia has not been adapted to reflect the changed hit formula. Hence we have to scale/shift the hit profession level to arrive at the correct result, i.e. here 32.9 * 0.6 + 40 = 59.74. This yields 2.116 dpp and 77.88 dps with enhancers as said.

Good luck!

Thanks for the correction :)

I've gotta blast through some UA now but I'll do some more knifing today sometime...
 
Essentially it is this - the more damage you cause per pec spent, with all other things being equal, the more return % you will get.

This is the wrong conclusion. Your return percentage is directly linked to the special loots you have in your runs.
If you have a run with low mini/global/hof count, you have a low return percentage. If you have a high mini/global/hof count you have a high return percentage. It's as simple as that.
 
I always love reading these Debunk threads, its essentially people discussing the interior color of a unopened box by the noises coming from said box :D. All loot variations in logs i have ever seen can be explained by a standard linear Hp * random multiplier = loot function with out exception. To suggest a addition to that equation based on the data we have is just unproven theory.

There is a saying in the programming world: KISS, keep it simple stupid or in other words if your writing something overly complex to do a simple task your doing it wrong.....

Cheers
Zweshi
 
KISS, keep it simple stupid or in other words if your writing something overly complex to do a simple task your doing it wrong.....
Unless there's a good reason to not go for the simplest, most predictable solution...
See what I did there? ;)

The assumption it all has to follow KISS is among the most used claims in all the posts made about loot mechanics since the beginning of time.
There's a small problem with this approach. To be able to tell what was the simplest solution you have to know what were the exact requirements that had to be satisfied...
 
Yes, but hunting Feffox, wearing unL armour, and playing on a Saturday are all variables too.

I'm actually going to call this - I've made my point; I could kill 50,000 Feffox and waste 1M PED and there will still be people saying "oh, you've not hit your multipliers!" or some other mad made-up theory.

People can believe what they want to believe - There's an obvious looting mechanic. There's an obvious cost mechanic. Most people who say different are driven my ulterior motives - they like their ML35 T7, they want to sell some un-eco item... sometimes they're just plain morons.

:girl:

Actually i have a mod 4400m which is is one of the best eco long range weapons you can get, so it would not be good for me if eco didn't matter. You're just testing wrong, but i guess it's easier to just call me a moron.
 
Actually i have a mod 4400m which is is one of the best eco long range weapons you can get, so it would not be good for me if eco didn't matter. You're just testing wrong, but i guess it's easier to just call me a moron.

Comprehension, love, I didn't call you a moron. Though perhaps...
 
I love loot theories!! I have a million :D


But at the end of the night eco isnt all that matters I can say that for certain.......its a part of the equation perhaps but its far from the "solution"

//Linzey
 
I love loot theories!! I have a million :D


But at the end of the night eco isnt all that matters I can say that for certain.......its a part of the equation perhaps but its far from the "solution"

//Linzey

Well, I will say this: the only way you'll "win" the game, is to loot MU, which really now is only in unL items. Eco is about minimising losses, items are "winning" the game.

But I have no idea about item loots... I never get them so obviously I'm not doing something right :)
 
If defensive cost had anything to do with your loot, you would never get hit.
 
Interesting thread.

Anecdotally as a young player, $15usd buys me a little less than 5 hours on average which is highway robbery in my mind. I love the way you guys talk about cycling millions of ped to get a better than 90% return. Why would I (or any young player) sign up for that type of financial burden when I can go back to pay to play for $17/month or less? If you pay attention, this game has an extremely poor new player retention rate. I would be shocked to find that it is enough to keep the player base static after attrition. So to make money MA decreases whatever loot multiplier exists for which ever algorithms they have to maintain profits driving more new and old players away which then becomes a vicious cycle.

I know this is a really crazy idea but returns should be enough to keep me interested, instead they are enough to piss me off to the point that I don't hunt or mine anymore so there is no need to deposit for those activities. And before I hear blah blah blah for a response, I deposited $100 one month and still had to budget my play time and to me that is total bullshit. I will say that the social base is the best I have found and that is what keeps me around so it is not all bad :yay:
 
... I love the way you guys talk about cycling millions of ped to get a better than 90% return. Why would I (or any young player) sign up for that type of financial burden ...
Why would anyone cycle millions if they can't break even or make profit?
Well ofc it's never a bed of flowers. There's always some risk involved simply because the sheer amount of resources that u have to put on the stake. Any mistake can lead to catastrophic results... but if u thought it's always a losing game u misunderstood how it works.
Not something I would advice for the faint-hearted, that much is certain... :yup:
 
Not something I would advice for the faint-hearted, that much is certain... :yup:

I couldn't agree more. However, it would be nice if there were some curve that wasn't so discouraging to the new player. That apparently there isn't lends some credence to the idea that the loot "algorithms" are not that complex. I state this because no business model that makes any sense would deliberately drive new customers away if it could at all help it. That said, after the newbie missions everyone is thrown to the wolves to learn the hard way, for the most part, what it means to play in EU. For example, our soc has 54 inactive members (because I am lazy) who were newbies when we recruited them, each bailed inside of 3 months despite our best efforts to help them understand. I should point out here that our newbie recruitment count was 58 when we gave up because of the retention, a whopping 7% in our case. MA is in business to make a profit and I want to believe if they could do something more complex with the loot algorithms they would and it would make sense to ease new players in instead of throwing them into a lake of shit and not having the decency to shout swim. (but it is MA and the cynicism of the ubers has rubbed off on me so maybe hubris is to blame).
 
after the newbie missions everyone is thrown to the wolves .

Back in the day there weren't even newbie missions, or any sort of tutorial :)

That's what I loved about the game. Nothing is handed to you, nothing comes easy. You start with nothing and it's up to you to figure out how to be successful.

Also, I know plenty of newbies that broke even or profited on wrapping up their 10k puny mission. A bigger problem imo is the auction fees that make it impossible for newbies to find decent markup on their loot unless they can afford to cycle 100s to 1000s of PED.
 
MA is in business to make a profit and I want to believe if they could do something more complex with the loot algorithms they would and it would make sense to ease new players in instead of throwing them into a lake of shit and not having the decency to shout swim.
Good point. Looks like the loot algorithm doesn't allow tinkering for certain player classes separately. Most likely "one formula to rule em all". Seems reasonable to assume it also follows the same general logic as the formulas for skills and attributes - a logarithmic curve of ever decreasing gains (here : gains for MA, if we speak about loot and total turnover).

It's indeed very difficult to survive at the 1st half...3/4 of the curve but you don't have to change the loot formula to make the survival easier. Access to cheap high eco weapons and tools is also one way, "taxback" style missions like the one on Ark is another... There's thousand ways to balance things out if u really want it.

Then again, whatever u do, some ppl will leave after a while anyway. All those who need somebody to shout "Swim!" after u throw em into water or otherwise they just drown... those will drown eventually anyway. How many ppl have an entrepreneurial attitude, or are ready to develop it, in a video game?
 
You would be even more pissed that newbies in the old days could HoF HUGE on tiny mobs.

Friend got 9000 peds on a Foul Young :)

2days Newbies have to depo their way to the top or spend endless time grinding.

Even I got 100 ped lyst on the very first probe I dropped right outside PA which was enough to start apollo hunting and profiting :)

And don't forget the awsome Argo hunts that daily hofed 1k - 10k :)

But then again. Returns was ALOT more violate back then as mobs had alot more "no looters". But for me that made it even more fun as the system could suck ped fast and give them out fast :)
 
Heh, every game has stories about the old days. I could share some on vanilla WoW.

All I was trying to point out was that there is credence to the idea that the loot algorithms are probably simple. If they could handle scaling by number of skill points or similar that would be one path to better newbie retention. However, as Fifth says there are many ways to approach new user retention beyond the loot algorithms. Makes me wonder if the overall state of the code base prevents many of those options.
 
You would be even more pissed that newbies in the old days could HoF HUGE on tiny mobs.

Friend got 9000 peds on a Foul Young :)

2days Newbies have to depo their way to the top or spend endless time grinding.

Even I got 100 ped lyst on the very first probe I dropped right outside PA which was enough to start apollo hunting and profiting :)

And don't forget the awsome Argo hunts that daily hofed 1k - 10k :)

But then again. Returns was ALOT more violate back then as mobs had alot more "no looters". But for me that made it even more fun as the system could suck ped fast and give them out fast :)

My only uber HOF for hunting was an argo young. Now those things barely cough up minimal fake globals.
 
For People that know how loot works eco does not matter. They simply hunt only those mobs that have the loot.

Wait!! The mobs are supposed to have loot in them????? :scratch2:
 
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