Does Avataar Luck really Exist!! A non believer starts believing :(

[Uniqu3]

& how many ath's in team?
Do you really think the bigger teamloots don't have an effect on you're solo loots?

I am 99% sure I can only break 3k in a team. I had a ~30k eomon with adel and a 91k mulmun elite with soc. The mulmun was part of our soc funded hunting. To MA I received about 20% of that loot, but in reality I only received 5% of it, do u think my luck/return/whatever will be penalised by MA for this?

 

[Infinity01]

I don't think there is any luck factor to have consistently good return for the general population.
Based on my personal experinece... HOF/Globals are bought by the players....

Once upon a time i was told by my soc member "the luckiest player i've even seen in entropia" . The reason was I used to global right and left .. and often punctuated by HOF. But he didnt' know I was depoing a lot and was skilling up like crazy... I was in a deep hole until i got my 24k Uber.

Having said the I do think there is a short term randomness in loot... but longer term it balances out based on data i've seen here in the forum.

I also believe that.. MA targets players based on the skill levels for various reasons..

MA also preferentially drops certain special items for special group of people.... these special group of players are highly skilled... and many playing from the very early days of eu... and some of them are closely associated with MA..
As we are all human and endowed with human nature.. I won't be surprised some of these players to have some special treatment by MAs staff. It is possible that those players themselves my not have any clue that they are getting speical treatments..

I can give you one specific example... The hyra event about 1 yr ago.......where every single mob dropped UL high MU items. During that event only few uber teams were able to hunt.
That Hydra event is glaring evidence of special treatment by MA to a group of special players .

Individual special treatment (without players knowledge) might be happening. I'm not going into specifics here...

The other thing possible and i'm sure happening is leaking info before special events and content release...


So, bottom line, I don't believe in luck factors in this game...

For most people it's simplly a short term random variation with rougly ~90% tt return over the longer term..
Only knowledge and skills can improve return to the point of break-even, and in some cases profitablity.

And yes, there are special treatment of certain stage avatars ... and in rare cases individual avatar..

 

[Manique]

However , a friend of mine ( wont mention names) tells me that everytime he goes mining he gets close to or above 100% tt returns on calypso.
Divinity

Doesn't matter a place alone.
Ask him his overall TT return throw all he's mined
I bet he might know if he mined intensivly for over a year on calypso.

 

[Uniqu3]

That Hydra event is glaring evidence of special treatment by MA to a group of special players .

Lol, special treatment of players with some vague understanding of preparation, planning and teamwork.

 

[Zacariaz]

People keep talking about lucky avatars, but what about lucky people? Isn't that one and the same?

If you have enough random events, one or more of them will be extraordinary. That's just the way it is.

believe me, I know how it feels not to be extraordinary. I've been an EU participant for just about 7 years now, and what have I gotten for my trouble? I'm still waiting for my first 5 digit HOF, I have no illusions about ever hitting an ATH (though it hasn't always been the case) and I've spend and lost more money than most.

Still I realise why it is so. MA/EU/FPC/whatever is a business just like any other. For it to continue, the users cannot "win". Sure there are a lucky few, and it is a good way to attract customers, but it isn't necessary for MA or anyone else to step in and make it happen. If things are truly random, it will happen all by it self.

I cannot say how many times I have been on the brink of writing a very rude support case, accusing MA and partners of foul play, but I've always come to my senses.

The chances of hitting heads (or tails) ten times in a row is one in a thousand and yet we've all tried it, one way or the other.

 

[Svarog]

there is no such thing as luck.

too short.

 

[Divinity]

Doesn't matter a place alone.
Ask him his overall TT return throw all he's mined
I bet he might know if he mined intensivly for over a year on calypso.

Till before i sent him to rock, he had only mined calypso.

People keep talking about lucky avatars, but what about lucky people? Isn't that one and the same?

If you have enough random events, one or more of them will be extraordinary. That's just the way it is.

Exactly where i differentiate people being lucky as in being at the right time doing the right thing to trigger the loot , and MA either choosing individually the lucky ones depending on a PR drive.

"Luck" per say i don't have problems with, but when its manually done in favour of someone , then it means you are basically sitting at the mercy of some other person clicking names.

They have said they don't do it at creation process, so i will not go that line henceforth as i choose to believe they aren't outright liars. However a post creation process loot adjustment, they haven't commented on and i doubt they will,ever.

The chances of hitting heads (or tails) ten times in a row is one in a thousand and yet we've all tried it, one way or the other.

that's 1 out of 1024 and no i haven't tried but the real question is , how many have actually succeeded in doing so without a rigged coin.

 

[Divinity]

To MA I received about 20% of that loot, but in reality I only received 5% of it, do u think my luck/return/whatever will be penalised by MA for this?

Why would MA consider what the internal arrangement was? I would think MA took into consideration that you got the 20% loot irrespective of internal soc arrangement.

Would u think otherwise?

 

[Ace Flyster]

My personal belief is:

They do not make any adjustments for any avatars ever (loot wise). That would be gross misconduct in my view, and i would not play

I do believe that they can put big loots out there, but not assigned to any avatars

Randomness does give rise to some people seemingly to appear to be lucky. But that probably is more down to.....right place right time.

If there are people who think MA make people more lucky, i am surprised they keep playing. Its like playing a roulette table with magnets.....why would anyone do that

I remember avidly in sweden i went to a pub (at the time there was lots of mini casinos) and played on their roulette table. I won big time to start.....then noticed quickly that the metal ball was making impossible movements (ie big magnet). If anyone believes MA can/or do do this, why on earth they would carry on playing is beyond me? It is unethical to start with

Apologies for comparing MA to gambling, but essentially the fundamental reasoning is still the same. If you think it is rigged, why play?

Anyways just me two pecs

Rgds

Ace

EDIT: i just realised i didnt answer the question lol

I would be interested to see logs, otherwise it is just hearsey to be honest. I would not expect anyone to constantly profit in tt!

 

[SpikeBlack]

We all get lucky streaks at some point.

Only a few weeks ago I was making a tt profit hunting low end noob mobs and I'm not talking 1 or 2 ped profits but 10-50ped quite regularly with a single enblade-a (sadly not any more).

 

[SpikeBlack]

I do believe that they can put big loots out there, but not assigned to any avatars

the wedding ring dropping from a mutated chirpy springs to mind.

Sibuk today, along with 50 other skilled players, were running amuck south of ithaca today attacking a fierce, yet tiny mutated chirpy. EVERYONE died instantly on contact with this furocious worm eating monster.

After many attempts, Sibuk stepped on it (hah kidding) and got a gold wedding band. I was told about it from a society member of Dark Force Rising, but no screenshot available at this moment (he said he still kicks himself for that) im waiting for sibuk to post it, I figured I would remind him!

Disk Interrupt

 

[Sheina]

most important for a game like this, is to adapt the profile of each avatar to get the maximum performance (deposits), I don´t think is a matter of luck, they are just bait for others.

if there really is a default 90% return is a global return, not for avatar.

 

[das]

I am 99% sure I can only break 3k in a team. I had a ~30k eomon with adel and a 91k mulmun elite with soc. The mulmun was part of our soc funded hunting. To MA I received about 20% of that loot, but in reality I only received 5% of it, do u think my luck/return/whatever will be penalised by MA for this?

yes, I'm 99% sure it does
offtopic, didn't you get a feff elite also with Adel?

 

[Soradin]

There's no such thing as luck in a computer program.

There's no such thing as "random" in a computer program. What we likely have here is a pseudo-random generation system based on a seed "randomly" assigned to each avatar upon creation, which is probably based on a static floating point seed. Given that there is no such thing as random, it is a logical conclusion that some people will do better than others over a given period of time. There may be a long-term level set (the mystical 90%), but what time period it applies to is an unknown.

Can MA place certain items into loot... if they can't, I would call it poor design.

Can they provide it to a specific avatar? I think probably yes. Contrary to the shouting of some folks (typically those who benefit), MA has shown in the past that they DO and WILL pay more attention to some players than others. That's simple fact. Any service based organization will give priority treatment to those who earn them the most benefit. That's business. MA exists to make a profit... just like any other company.

Why do I continue even though I believe the company behind EU favors some people over others? Because I have fun... I'm paying for entertainment. As long as I have fun, I play. When I don't have fun, when I get tired of seeing the same people hit huge HOFs and ATHs and pull down UL gear from the ether, I take a break. To me, this is no different than any other entertainment service I pay for, except that I decide how much I pay and when I pay it, rather than getting a bill every month.

 

[dogofwar]

I was a non believer for long that anything such as luck exists in the game and everything is based in and around 90-95% tt returns and some just get there big ones early to lose later and vice versa.

However , a friend of mine ( wont mention names) tells me that everytime he goes mining he gets close to or above 100% tt returns on calypso. I sent him to mine rocktropia and he complained of bad returns (60% or so) and came back fast . I was surprised when he said that he hardly gets below 100% tt returns on his runs on Calypso and its been that way since a year. This was yesterday and so i did a bit of digging as i became a bit curious.

Today , when i looked at the ath females history

1 Mining Ath (Typo it seems - 20 days back )
1 Crafting ATH ( today - Gratz to you)
3+ UL Breer p5a's ( minimum)


it really makes me wonder why people need to skill and not just keep creating new ava's and test there luck. I mean does MA want people to create more accounts so they get to show numbers or what??

Why should luck be a part of an ava, if at all it is.

Please keep in mind , i am not here to bitch about the lucky people. I am here to understand what people think about the way MA is setting things out for everyone.

Divinity

Yesterday I had an idea about something relating to this. What if MA periodically boosts the return on certain loots or professions? It could be completely random. It would keep track of how many people have benefited from it and sum the profits earned. At a certain point, it would cancel itself as it either: saturates the market, or exceeds a certain quota.

For example, lets say that a loot item has its loot rate increased on a particular creature. Hunters looking for this particular item discover over time that it's dropping a good clip. For a month or two, it gives them profits in MU. Once the number of loots reaches a certain point, the loot bonus deletes itself. The hunters find out that the loot is now dropping less than it was before and (not happily) move on to something else.

The idea is that this would force people to share information or keep it to themselves to game the system. Even if everyone knew which item or skill was boosted, it would eventually saturate the economy and kill itself. But MA could also enforce limits within the code itself to ensure that only a small population can benefit from it.

What you're saying is that bonuses are tied to particular avatars instead of loot or crafting recipe's that're independent of avatar. I am not sure whether this is true or not. This would indicate that Avatar #1 is great at getting high returns from wolves but gets horrible returns on monkeys.

One thing that would make these kinds of bonsues more interesting is if it was a permutation and thus changed over time. So you'd expect to game them when you're aware of them.

But....

In a way we already have this because things get saturated and players are forced to move on to other things to find out where the market is going. For example, muscle oil is saturated because it's so commonly found on creatures. It's also a base ingredient for low level crafters. As the game has matured, there have been less low level crafters to give muscle oil a market. This has resulted in a very low MU because supply is exceeding demand. However, some loots are much less common because they're on higher level creatures that're hard to reach and/or kill. Additionally, they might have a low drop rate. But demand at the higher levels can be very high because usually games are top-heavy - they have a large high-level population and a small low-level population. Over time, crafting items lose value as demand lowers and supply exceeds it.

Bottom line, you have to be aware of the market. First come, first serve; the early bird catches the worm. A good player knows all three professions well and watches supply/demand closely. Be diligent!

 

[remontoire]

I don't think there is any luck factor to have consistently good return for the general population.
Based on my personal experinece... HOF/Globals are bought by the players....

Bullshit. Utter and total bullshit that is demonstrated to be just that each and every time a newb gets 10K+ peds of loot. Which lately is every other week.

 

[Caramon]

If I believed any of these theories of how MA "rigged" the game to be unfair to some I would immediately sell out and quit.

I dont see any reason for them to risk doing that.
And I see no evidence that they do it.

So I am still here.

 

[Divinity]

If I believed any of these theories of how MA "rigged" the game to be unfair to some I would immediately sell out and quit.

I dont see any reason for them to risk doing that.
And I see no evidence that they do it.

So I am still here.

We all are here for the very logic that you have applied there. However, it relies more on ignorance of the system then knowledge of it

Hence, we are still here. As for there risk, they don't have any as it cannot be proved.

Even if the same person keeps getting all the big ones, 10 out of 20 will continue with the blind faith and say, oh the guy just keeps getting the right place at the right time. Its is skill and knowledge of the system after all.

Having a strong conviction on either side of the coin, can lead to short sightedness. I would suggest people keep there minds open to all possible scenarios as much as they can.

 

[M Rufen Power]

Is it possible to get a 100% return? Yes. It is possible to get above a 100% return (130%)? Yes. Both are short lived though & a part of the high/low in loot swings (atm on a low). Is it possible to maintain a steady RR higher than 90%? Possible. Does this make an avatar lucky? No, but it can feel that way defintely.

 

[Xavier_Jr]

In computer games, luck does not exist. There are only a simulated "luck" with algorithms. Sometimes this algorithms are good but sometimes are bad. But the house, only is concerned in what they want to win from us, other things does not necessarily matter of their atention. So there are not interested in small or big individual losses which their algorithm can produce in specific cases. And They do not invest time to audit the code, trying to find a perfect and fair "luck algorithm" without this kind of rarities.

 

[dogofwar]

There's no such thing as luck in a computer program.

There's no such thing as "random" in a computer program. What we likely have here is a pseudo-random generation system based on a seed "randomly" assigned to each avatar upon creation, which is probably based on a static floating point seed. Given that there is no such thing as random, it is a logical conclusion that some people will do better than others over a given period of time. There may be a long-term level set (the mystical 90%), but what time period it applies to is an unknown.

Can MA place certain items into loot... if they can't, I would call it poor design.

Can they provide it to a specific avatar? I think probably yes. Contrary to the shouting of some folks (typically those who benefit), MA has shown in the past that they DO and WILL pay more attention to some players than others. That's simple fact. Any service based organization will give priority treatment to those who earn them the most benefit. That's business. MA exists to make a profit... just like any other company.

Why do I continue even though I believe the company behind EU favors some people over others? Because I have fun... I'm paying for entertainment. As long as I have fun, I play. When I don't have fun, when I get tired of seeing the same people hit huge HOFs and ATHs and pull down UL gear from the ether, I take a break. To me, this is no different than any other entertainment service I pay for, except that I decide how much I pay and when I pay it, rather than getting a bill every month.

You're right that "random," in computer terms, is pseudo-random. In human terms, psuedo-random may as well be random. But in any case, I don't think anybody really knows whether Avatar's are treated differently. This is just another theory, but where is hte evidence? All I see is a accusation. It's true that this way of doing things could make some Avatars less effective than others - unless there's a filter in the background. For example, while it's very unlikely to roll 10 6's in a row on a d6, it's still possible.

// character creation
avatar.id = randomseed64bit()

Using the id they could generate a psuedo-random profile for this character using perlin noise. This profile would determine how their character interacts with different things in the game. It's highly unlikely that two different avatars will have the same seed, especially with a 64bit seed. So each avatar acts a little bit differently. Avatars likely wouldn't be at a disadvantage because it's unlikely they suck at everything. You see, with each permutation, you push the odds further. So to suck at everything becomes astronomically improbable. I guess it depends on the quality of the code. It's possible to have a "bug" which produces a systematic error.

I don't think they do this, though. The reason is that the market already offers us the same thing. Our individual selves can take the place of the randomseed64bit(). Each player is different and acts uniquely in a given situation. Each player has to learn his advantages/disadvantages. There's no need to fake it.

Non-players are a different ball-game. Perlin-noise can make a world of difference for them. It allows you to have (in human terms) infinite conditions and to consume very little memory or disk space. What is the color of your hair? What kind of music do you like? What are your genetics? What color do you like the most? Which creatures are you most afraid of? What are your talents? These kinds of questions and others like them are perfectly answered through perlin-noise, and since it requires so little memory, is a desired solution. It can even change over time. The problem happens when you want to simulate INTELLIGENT behavior or dynamic things that change in response to players. That's much harder to implement through this technique. Until we can perfectly wrap human/animal intelligence and behavior inside an equation then ti's out of reach.

It all boils down to our ability to mathematically describe phenomena in nature.

 

[remontoire]

If I believed any of these theories of how MA "rigged" the game to be unfair to some I would immediately sell out and quit.

I dont see any reason for them to risk doing that.
And I see no evidence that they do it.

So I am still here.

Fine, I am going to take you at your word. Explain yesterday's crafting hof-er or quit the game.

 

[Divinity]

Is it possible to get a 100% return? Yes. It is possible to get above a 100% return (130%)? Yes. Both are short lived though & a part of the high/low in loot swings (atm on a low). Is it possible to maintain a steady RR higher than 90%? Possible. Does this make an avatar lucky? No, but it can feel that way defintely.

1 year time frame is a short period?? Since when??

If we are to believe the 90% tt return and a person gets 100%+ tt return, what would u consider him?? Lucky? Talented? Knowledgeable? Do suggest what u consider the person to be.

 

[Xavier_Jr]

1 year time frame is a short period?? Since when??

If we are to believe the 90% tt return and a person gets 100%+ tt return, what would u consider him?? Lucky? Talented? Knowledgeable? Do suggest what u consider the person to be.

He know so much as you about this issue. That is only a little. What we can intuite is that a code could be perfectly programmed or not. And if it were not perfectly programmed, then always we can find rarities. It is no more to say. - Because do not exist enterprises who pay money to their customers (at least not intentionally) in a persistent way. -

 

[Infinity01]

Bullshit. Utter and total bullshit that is demonstrated to be just that each and every time a newb gets 10K+ peds of loot. Which lately is every other week.

lol, you've missed the part I talked about these events...

I also believe that.. MA targets players based on the skill levels for various reasons..
......................
And yes, there are special treatment of certain stage avatars ... and in rare cases individual avatar..

here one of the various reasons, i guess, to promote the game ... cheers

 

[tyk]

who has personal experience of avatars being equal? i have personal experience they aint. me and my brother have played almost as long (me little longer) but the normal loot difference and the big loots goddamn.. huge difference..
he gets mostly profit all tho he aint so eco
i try to be eco but my returns are shit (less than 70% tt return)

he has got one around 70k ped (MU wise loot), 1 30k loot
took me 43lvls of hit in laser pistoler to get a first hunt hof... 250ped

he has 3 towers in mining i have 0 all tho minings been my main profession for these past 5+ years

i know how he plays.. i know how i play but i just cant get shit.. wheres the equality in that?
and i have been the one who have been depositing to this game and not he.. so what the fuck?

 

[dogofwar]

You also have to take into account that those who're doing well might keep their secret to themselves. Why share it? You'd just be letting the cat out of the bag and encouraging MA to 'fix' it.

I also think players are notorious for taking inaccurate data and making flawed assessments.

This is a he-said/she-said thing. Accusations. Assertions.

That's part of the reason people play this game. The mystery. Players wonder...

MA probably encourages this to keep players interested.

Regardless, I wouldn't worry about profiteers. They're working much too hard for much too little. In all reality, they're the stupid ones. RL offers far more profit than this game does. But I guess it depends where you live. If I was in Africa then this would probably be respectable money. Otherwise, it's a waste of time.

One man's piece of trash is another man's treasure.

Maybe for a very very small minority this game is good money. Like if you buy a planet and it succeeds. I bet the top resellers could make a meager wage, but still they're working too hard for it - imho.

If you want money, go to business school. Make a great business idea and grow it. With some luck and perseverance, you'll have enough money to buy a planet and donate its profits to the poor.

 

[Svarog]

1 year time frame is a short period?? Since when??

Why not? For me the whole 2007 was "over-100%-return" period. I was getting at least 1 global for every 200 ped of cycled ammo and was hunting 5+ hours a day without a single depo during that year. I even bought full Nemesis for +3.7k (which doesn't worth even 1/3 of that sum now ) and estate from the profit. Nowadays I deposit at least twice a week to maintain my hunting habits and managed to complete 1k+5k iron argo without a single global, with only 5 globals during the 10k. Looking at my ET you may conclude that I'm a casual player while I'm still hunting 3+ hours a day, every day. Seems my luck tide has come and gone, leaving me too addicted too stop or even care - what's probably the goal

 

[remontoire]

here one of the various reasons, i guess, to promote the game ... cheers

And next you will say that those who get generally good, much above the average returns are also covered by your disclaimers, because they are not part of the "general populace"?

You cannot say that some avatars are targeted for huge payouts and at the same time say that people pay for their own hofs. You also cannot say that and that everybody will receive 90% back. You also cannot say that the system is based on 90% returns. You also cannot say that avatars are equal.

 

[Om3n]

Wow, shouldn't have read this thread... some good point but a lot of complaining. a mod should seriously lock it :/ I'm in ways sorry for some of the comments to come. lol in other ways im not. Some of these statements do not point towards to community as a whole but a group of people that seem to make the forums enjoyment difficult for most. I'm sure a headache for MA PR as well.

First off the sniveling little.... whos whining about noobs winning 10k... so f'ing what? I won one as a noob and now Ive spent a fair bit more then the initial hof. I've probably funded yours or someone elses globals or hofs. Would you like any new players to come ever? grow up.

There is no luck here. think MA would go "Hey lets take risks with millions of our own money"? If 95% of the players left and the rest didnt spend, as the loot pool dried up you'd more then likely not see any more globals etc.

I think someone was referencing a crafting situation the other day. If im thinking the right one the guy got 3-4 hofs in a row roughly 1200 ped iirr. oooo 1200 ped. I cant believe people are complaining about such trivial things. For all anyone knows this porson could have spent 5k USD getting ped over the last year and not seen anything. The whiners though will rise at arms and make childish threats at MA cause they're being a bit too greedy over 1 guy getting a fifth of his investment back in game currency.( I know it should all be yours(whiners)but the world needs to share once and a while)

In contradiction to my 2nd statement there is a bit of a luck factor here, not luck as you would think of at a casino. More in code statements and different variable that may be important to the mechanics of the game. If the game has no money players will see no money unless the depo. This is the way it should be and needs to be if MA is to continue.


People that are bragging about being 100+% tt all the time do more damage then the players who don't depo. they feel confident and no need to do any kind of depos cause the game is carrying them. That is the flaw in the system. Not some newbie who gets encouraged to spend cause he got a hof, that actually adds to the ath's hofs etc you see in the list now, not just some select group of ubers that may spend more then most cause of some insane amount of disposable income that some of you greedy folks think you'll get your grubby mits on.

On a side note it's better to see noobies get hofs etc cause they don't know better, they buy the biggest and best stuff cause it's bad-a$$ and common who doesnt want that kinda stuff. As everyone though you'll learn your lesson and learn to skill the proper way even if it cots your hof etc doing so. An experienced player might horde it and be cheap with the spending, or maybe even withdraw cause they're tired of whining on the forums over trivial nonsense.

Again i illustrate the point it's a game not your job. You will not get fired if you lose a couple ped.

I'd hate to see some of you greedy whiny buggers destroy this game with nonsense.