Q2: volatility

Status

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
currently on crafting and mining so it may take 6+ months to actually see the target return and there may be 1+k craft runs with sub 90% return (as low as 79% return for SIB BPs).

Also currently there may be periods of 2-3 weeks of bad returns and then up to 20 globals/hofs on a single day.

Loot 2.0 was supposed to reduce it, but so far all it did was increasing it.

Will there be more tweaking to actually reduce the volatility?
 
Last edited:

Dennis|MindArk

MindArk Official
Staff member
MindArk Official
Joined
Jan 11, 2019
Posts
152
Magnus Eriksson:

Loot 2.0 only dealt with hunting loot, not crafting or mining.

We also later made adjustments to reduce volatility in the crafting and mining systems, but that was not directly related to the Loot 2.0 system. Those adjustments were in general very well received by the community, based on feedback received via support cases and forum discussions.

The Crafting and mining systems are constantly being monitored and tweaked.
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
Magnus Eriksson:

We also later made adjustments to reduce volatility in the crafting and mining systems, but that was not directly related to the Loot 2.0 system. Those adjustments were in general very well received by the community, based on feedback received via support cases and forum discussions.

really? i don't know anyone who likes it. all crafters i know ingame don't like it for sure and the majority of the crafters here in the forum seem to not like it.
Granted, the EP-IV Condition gamblers may receive it very well, because condition crafting indeed got less volatile, but as it goes for quantity MU crafters i highly doubt that it's well received there.
Sure, there may be a few ubers who like getting more hofs on quantity and are fine with 80% return for a while, but i highly doubt those are the majority.
 

Psynergy

Provider
Joined
Jan 18, 2019
Posts
133
Avatar Name
Shadowfire Hottygurl Of The Phoenix
...In case you didn't notice on longer runs the volatility was reduced quite a bit(for example 10k clicks of EP I on Caly as a test bed).
Success rate and amount of overall TT ratio of input to product for ammo and components were also increased. It used to be 33% about, now 41% or so.

The issue is that on higher TT blueprints things are still wildly variable, not enough materials are returned(instead we get nanocubes?), and the click cost to residue compensation ratio(TT of end item over input click value) isn't enough to compensate for the loss factors we face crafting.

We need less variability and higher success rate on (L) blueprints that can only have short amounts of runs done on them, on high cost blueprints, and well...in general. Too many people are losing incredible amounts of money in very short amounts of time on higher craft cost things, when instead crafting should be focusing on burning up all of the resources in the economy, not inflicting yet another loss on us...

There's no known scaling that keeps things in a trajectory of costs down and a lot of peds can be cycled very fast in crafting, leading to extreme costs hourly if you make a mistake.
 
Last edited:

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
...In case you didn't notice on longer runs the volatility was reduced quite a bit(for example 10k clicks of EP I on Caly as a test bed).

in case you didn't notice, i was talking about volatility in 1+k click runs, not 10+k clicks... the volatility got increase a lot there..

never did i have runs of 1-4k clicks and ended up with 80% return before they started "reducing the volatility"

The issue is that on higher TT blueprints things are still wildly variable, not enough materials are returned(instead we get nanocubes?), and the click cost to residue compensation ratio(TT of end item over input click value) isn't enough to compensate for the loss factors we face crafting.

We need less variability and higher success rate on (L) blueprints that can only have short amounts of runs done on them, on high cost blueprints, and well...in general. Too many people are losing incredible amounts of money in very short amounts of time on higher craft cost things, when instead crafting should be focusing on burning up all of the resources in the economy, not inflicting yet another loss on us...

it has to be reduced on everything, just imagine, a new player comes into the game, decides to become a crafter, depos 200 PED. Buys QR 100 BSM BP, buys as many materials as he can, gets 75% TT-return....
good first impression isn't it?

And for us older players it isn't fun to get shit return run after shit return run for a long time either...
I mean, waiting to get hof to get to 95ish% return... waiting 20k clicks, 50k clicks, 100k clicks, 250k clicks and at 400k clicks it may finally happen (true story btw)....

doing 1k click run, getting 80% return, so click more, because multis should happen to get good return, and then you keep waiting for them to appear.. hours, days, weeks...

they should just up the near successes, so that 1k click runs result in at least 90% return, then it would be fine.
 
Last edited:

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
Magnus Eriksson:

Loot 2.0 only dealt with hunting loot, not crafting or mining.

maybe not intentionally, here's a screenshot of what happened to crafting after you've adjusted hunting loot in december 2017. The red marked near successes didn't exist or not that frequent before december 2017 hunting loot adjustment. Mining got unintentionally effected as well btw.

287xzyh8.jpg


After 3-4 months of complaining about it (december2017-march2018), this, i guess unintentional change, finally got acknowledged, and partially adressed. With the crafting test and then it's current iteration, which still needs some tweaking.
 
Last edited:

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
Oh, now i see why you think you've reduced the volatility, you've taken the unintended change in december 2017 for what crafting has been all the time.
So instead of reducing crafting volatility based on what it was supposed to be, before unintended change, you reduced it on the basis of that unintended change.

That explains why you think you've reduced volatility even though it has increased compared to pre loot2.0 crafting volatility.

pre loot 2.0, 1+k clicks resulted in at least 90% return
loot 2.0 - december 2017, can't quite remember.
december 2017 - march 2018, unintended change, 1+k clicks resulted in 80-95% return.
now , 1+k clicks results in 80+% return.
 
Last edited:

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
So here's my follow-up question, now that we sorted out that you've accidently increased the crafting/mining volatility during loot 2.0, are there plans/do you intend to get the crafting/mining volatility down to niveau it was before loot 2.0?

I know, you've made some adjustments already, but the volatility is still way higher than it was before loot 2.0....
 

GoNi

Slayer
Joined
Feb 2, 2007
Posts
7,567
Location
Calypso, Sakura City
Society
freelancer
Avatar Name
Gloria GoNi Nicestyle
pre loot 2.0, 1+k clicks resulted in at least 90% return

Thats simply not true.

I did a lot 1000 click runs, its my standard number of clicks I do on crafting.

I have had a lot runs that ended far below 90% return, some even as bad as 60%.
Surely it got partly compenstated the long run.

Haven´t tracked it all, so I cant say what my overall return rate accumulated is (actually I dont care as only the actual ongoing run is important for me), but less than 80% on quantity definately happend in 1000 click runs in the past.

If you have been lucky in the past and always got 90% and now you are in a down streak, not getting this 90% returns for a while, that happens. Claiming that in the past it was always 90% on 1000 clicks quantity is simply wrong, as it may have been that way for you, but surely not for all. Especially not for me!

I have had bad streaks that lasted several month, this can happen!

Beside that, I cant care less about multiplyers as long I have a high number of real success, especially on L BPs and item crafting (with residue) this is much more important for me than getting multis.

Thats something I would really see to be improved, simply because it is so anoying if clicking a L BP with just a few attempts on it, and get real success rate below 10%. Thats what really sucks!
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
I have had a lot runs that ended far below 90% return, some even as bad as 60%.

Oh yeah, i had that too, when doing condition crafting, but not once on quantity crafting, simply because almost all near successes were 90% which already resulted in high return. With 5% fail rate, 33% success and the rest mainly been 90% return near successes it was very hard to get less than 90% return on quantity crafting, unless you're talking about the pre 2014 era.
There it may be true, but from 2014 to loot 2.0 pretty much all 1+k click runs were 90+% return with QR 100 UL BP.

L BPs, especially if not maxed out, however could be pretty terrible, that's something i can agree too.

Haven´t tracked it all, so I cant say what my overall return rate accumulated is (actually I dont care as only the actual ongoing run is important for me), but less than 80% on quantity definately happend in 1000 click runs in the past.
If you have been lucky in the past and always got 90% and now you are in a down streak, not getting this 90% returns for a while, that happens. Claiming that in the past it was always 90% on 1000 clicks quantity is simply wrong, as it may have been that way for you, but surely not for all. Especially not for me!

for me it started with the "hunting adjustment" VUs.
So all 90+% return for 3 years, then VU and suddenly nearly all 80% and 90+% rarely seen again, not to mention not a single run above 95% return for 3-4 months, untill another VU, can hardly be only randomness...

bring the volatility down again, to 90+% for 1+k click runs...

Edit: and i bet, if MA checks the complaints about crafting/mining returns & volatility, the amount of complaints has drastically increased beginning with the "hunting adjustment" VU in december 2017, where they lowered the frequency and size of multis and upped the frequency of bonus shrapnell.
 
Last edited:

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
Beside that, I cant care less about multiplyers as long I have a high number of real success, especially on L BPs and item crafting (with residue) this is much more important for me than getting multis.

not if you need 90+% return to break even with MU ^^ Sure, if you only stick to crafts where the MU is so high that the break even threshold is 80% return or less, then you don't have to care about multis, but for crafts that need higher return the multis are very important for breaking even/profiting...

ofc, one stick can only to crafts that have a break even threshold of 80% return or less but that is bad for economy, because all the crafts that may be in demand but require higher return are just going to die.
 
Last edited:

mastermesh

Mutated
Joined
Apr 21, 2007
Posts
16,213
Location
FOMA SHOP # 22
Society
Freelancer
Avatar Name
Maria Mesh
folks move the COS (Chance of Success Slider) towards the right and then complain when their success rate isn't so great? Duh? You are playing a slot machine essentially. If you do want to lower your success rate for chances at better returns when returns do come, fine, but don't do it and then go complaining when the number of success gets lowered as a result of your own choice...

Don't get me wrong, crafting does need major improvements in a lot of ways, but folks going away from Quantity option based on their own choice isn't necessarily one of them, unless you want Mindark to do away with the slider all together and make all clicks be same as doing full quantity option.
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
Loot 2.0 was supposed to only affect hunting, but here's what happened to crafting multipliers:

multis-jpg.14


The 50:50 distribution of times 10 & times 40 was pretty solid even beyond the 9kish clicks of that more cleaned multiplier-tracking.

And ever since loot 2.0 the times 40 multis were pretty much non-existant.

So whoever says loot 2.0 was hunting adjustments only is just wrong, it may not been intended to affect crafting/mining but it did.
 
Last edited:

Alina

Elite
Joined
Mar 22, 2005
Posts
3,241
Location
Bucharest
Society
freeeeee
Avatar Name
Stoica Alina Alina
So i told you do some research and i still see you complain about craft.

What the fak is the point in crafting this Roadie BLP Amp Mk I (L) ?

Ive been playing for 15 years since 2006 and 2017 i didn't craft at all. I started doing my amp for mining since they added health for crafting skills. You know what...with my 0 experience i made few skills and i have a bit of profit doing this.
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
So i told you do some research
yeah, that's some stupid saying that isn't any argument nor disproofs anything at all...
Please, if you have the solution to get good return and make multipliers appear instead of running 80-85% return runs over and over again, go ahead, link pls. Otherwise stfu.

Once more, MU isn't the issue, the shit return over and over again is.
 

Alina

Elite
Joined
Mar 22, 2005
Posts
3,241
Location
Bucharest
Society
freeeeee
Avatar Name
Stoica Alina Alina
yeah, that's some stupid saying that isn't any argument nor disproofs anything at all...
Please, if you have the solution to get good return and make multipliers appear instead of running 80-85% return runs over and over again, go ahead, link pls. Otherwise stfu.

Once more, MU isn't the issue, the shit return over and over again is.

I dont see any big crafters complain about the return in a period , you know why ? because they generate enough markup and when the "payback" period comes its an extra 5-20k that month maybe more :p

i wont stfu because you just have no clue what are you doing
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
I dont see any big crafters complain about the return in a period , you know why ? because they generate enough markup and when the "payback" period comes its an extra 5-20k that month maybe more :p

i wont stfu because you just have no clue what are you doing

for me:
- with "payback" period aka 95% return: 10+k PED profit (i obviously have no clue right?)
- without "payback" period: 500-1000 PED loss

The problem is the "payback" period is simply not happening, at least not for me and others i know, if you know a way to trigger "payback" period, go ahead, tell me so i can confirm or disproof your theory otherwise it's just ad hominem trolling by you......

And that you don't see big crafters complaining is just a lie, i was big crafter, i complain, NVP was big crafter who complained, i know many others who complain, not here but ingame, or they just leave the game... you're just in denial....
 
Last edited:

Evey

Elite
Joined
Oct 7, 2006
Posts
3,127
Avatar Name
Eve Everglades
And that you don't see big crafters complaining is just a lie, i'm big crafter, i complain, NVP was big crafter who complained, i know many others who complain, not here but ingame, or they just leave the game... you're just in denial....

Sorry to interrupt,
:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
Carry on complaining about tt return while doing the same uber crafting... how the heck 2dmg amps, chairs and lamps are big crafting to you, I will never figure it out.

New crafters should actually look up to other (real big) crafters that make usable things that sell... Clicking shit BPs twice a day and analyzing the 'data' is not big crafting to the rest of us, alukat, only to yourself.
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
Sorry to interrupt,
:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:
Carry on complaining about tt return while doing the same uber crafting... how the heck 2dmg amps, chairs and lamps are big crafting to you, I will never figure it out.

New crafters should actually look up to other (real big) crafters that make usable things that sell... Clicking shit BPs twice a day and analyzing the 'data' is not big crafting to the rest of us, alukat, only to yourself.

Ofc you needed to come to troll... running up to 8k clicks a day isn't big time crafting? :D Where does it start for you? at 1 million clicks a day?Please stream how you pull off that one :D

Btw: if it's only possible to hit 95% return, when you only click 20+ PED stuff and it's impossible when you click smaller stuff, then something is fundamentally broken.
 
Last edited:

Evey

Elite
Joined
Oct 7, 2006
Posts
3,127
Avatar Name
Eve Everglades
Ofc you needed to come to troll... running up to 8k clicks a day isn't big time crafting? :D Where does it start for you? at 1 million clicks a day? Troll has to troll i guess....

I explained already. You click on good stuff. Clicking on shit is not even crafting, it's stupid. It's ok when you are a beginner. But you are not a beginner, you are just suborn and ignorant while people are genuinely trying to help you with decent advice but you call them trolls.... and keep on clicking the roadie blp dmg. No matter how many clicks dude... Big crafters craft wisley, not for TT. TT is supposed to suck but you should try to get an edge crafting what's good and hot, otherwise you're just a silly goose, just like the EP crafters - same boat.
 

Alukat123

Stalker
Joined
Jun 20, 2017
Posts
1,851
Avatar Name
Son Alukat Goku
I explained already. You click on good stuff. Clicking on shit is not even crafting, it's stupid.

okay, you have no clue about those crafts, that's fine, but please stop acting like you would have any clue about it. And yes, you are a troll, you have no clue but call others clueless.

And now please stop your trolling/offtopic...

Anyway, MUs are fine, TT-return and volatility isn't. Please MA fix it.
 
Last edited:

Darkaruki

Banned
Joined
Jul 8, 2009
Posts
1,797
Location
Sweden
Avatar Name
Formerly "Darkaruki Dorkaruki Kakiro"
//mod note

I don't really think this is an appropriate location for discourse.

:locked:
 
Status
Top