remontoire
Marauder
- Joined
- Feb 10, 2010
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- Bravo Three-Nil
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- John itwasntme Remontoire
This is a "the glass is half full" thread. After all, 51% of time everything works okay and you succeed. This is all about the other cases.
90% tiering probability, 51% chance - 4 attempts (you get here 10% of time)
Its true that there is a number of services that offer much lower rates. It would appear that they have better chances than outlined here, they are paying very high rates themselves to allow for skill increase or they are setting themselves up for eventual failure due to underinsurance and we will get another deluge of sob stories about how MA destroyed them and their in-game livelihoods.
90% tiering probability, 51% chance - 4 attempts (you get here 10% of time)
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 11.47% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 7.76% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 3.94% of time
95% tiering probability, 51% chance - 5 attempts@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 7.76% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 3.94% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 14.12% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 9.6% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 4.9% of time
99% tiering probability, 51% chance - 7 attempts@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 9.6% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 4.9% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 19.20% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 13.19% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 6.79% of time
99.9% tiering probability, 51% chance - 10 attempts@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 13.19% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 6.79% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 26.25% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 18.29% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 9.56% of time
90% tiering probability, 54% chance - 3 attempts (you get here 10% of time)@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 18.29% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 9.56% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 8.73% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 5.88% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 2.97% of time
95% tiering probability, 54% chance - 4 attempts@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 5.88% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 2.97% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 11.47% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 7.76% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 3.94% of time
99% tiering probability, 54% chance - 6 attempts@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 7.76% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 3.94% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 16.70% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 11.41% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 5.85% of time
99.9% tiering probability, 54% chance - 9 attempts@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 11.41% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 5.85% of time
@ 97% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 23.97% of time
@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 16.63% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 8.65% of time
So, what does this mean in practice? If you have say 51% of tiering probability and 97% of salvage, and you are offering to tier to completion, you need to ask for 96.08% of tiering components and 22% of the item market value to account for failures, and have a reasonable protection against long strings of failures, as the fee. Just to break even. Assuming that there an is infinite supply of second items and tiering components at the market value. Optout at N tries and penalties for such will change this.@ 98% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 16.63% of time
@ 99% salvage, lose at least 1 item and no tiering 8.65% of time
Its true that there is a number of services that offer much lower rates. It would appear that they have better chances than outlined here, they are paying very high rates themselves to allow for skill increase or they are setting themselves up for eventual failure due to underinsurance and we will get another deluge of sob stories about how MA destroyed them and their in-game livelihoods.