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Other players mining before you affects your hit rate

I have an off topic question, what would the minimum sample size be for data needed in order to draw a statistical conclusion from ?
 
R4tt3xx said:
I have an off topic question, what would the minimum sample size be for data needed in order to draw a statistical conclusion from ?
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The minimum sample size needed for reliable conclusions varies. For surveys, around 400 samples are often used for a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. In this game, factors like loot variability/wave can affect this, so more samples might be needed for accuracy
 
The Painkiller said:
The minimum sample size needed for reliable conclusions varies. For surveys, around 400 samples are often used for a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. In this game, factors like loot variability/wave can affect this, so more samples might be needed for accuracy
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Perfect thanks. I am going to hate statistics. 20 samples per run at a cost of 3.1 ped (yes I am going to use an md1) roundup(400/20,0)*3.1 is about $7 total. Also the locations that I am going to be sampling from are not exactly going to be random, but that is the point, I want to see by how my sample hitrate differs from the mean.
 
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R4tt3xx said:
I have an off topic question, what would the minimum sample size be for data needed in order to draw a statistical conclusion from ?
Click to expand...

Maybe this can help

OMW to Caly from Ark now and I have been mining on the same spot this month with all the dif finders (25 for the moment) I use so from MD-10 up to TM6 and used depth enh on some finders to reach vesp
Here again no amps or pre-amped finders where used, nor did I used pets and didn't rush, just relaxed mining as in run, drop, extract, run, drop, extract :p
All costs are calculated in the results, so this is net.
If other miners where there, I kept going and didn't see any changes in return.

Here is my result :

EDIT : Results from all these dif finders where very different and going deep doesn't mean more profit ...
Totall drops : 3938
Totall peds : 4299,23
TT return : 4440,94 ped = 103,30% = + 141,71 ped
After sales : 5032,10 ped = 117,05% = + 732,86 ped
 
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I am no where near on that level of turn over. Right now I am working on finding the best method for me. I don't mean to brag but it is capable at the moment of about 10 increases off of the average hit rate. It also looks like some areas are biased to either ore or matter. My hunches and intuition is also getting a lot better regarding if an area is good or not, but I do complete the run in order to gather the data and confirm my hunch.

I am currently using an md1 and have no interest in scaling up till I have something concrete that I can use.
 
The Painkiller said:
The minimum sample size needed for reliable conclusions varies. For surveys, around 400 samples are often used for a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. In this game, factors like loot variability/wave can affect this, so more samples might be needed for accuracy
Click to expand...
There’s a post I mentioned it in awhile back with the details, but you’d just have to use a power calculator to determine minimal sample size. At least for the tests done in my threads, the sample size was already more than enough. More is needed depending on what the response variable is, number of comparisons, etc. I’ll see if I can dig the numbers up again someday. IIRC, around 400 was a good amount for the finder decay testing, in part because it dealt with small differences.

As for variability or waves, that should already be incorporated into the statistical tests or especially experimental design for the latter. If you are concerned about waves while testing the difference in average MU between treatments or something like that, waves shouldn’t be a confounding factor if you’re switching between treatments (e.g., amped or not) each claim.

That’s partly why you don’t go testing one method X-hundred times and then go try the other method the same amount, especially if it’s over the course of days or weeks later. The two aren’t statistically comparable at that point. If you keep the treatments as close to pair-wise as possible, then both should be getting the same background variation from nuisance factors.
 
kingofaces said:
There’s a post I mentioned it in awhile back with the details, but you’d just have to use a power calculator to determine minimal sample size. At least for the tests done in my threads, the sample size was already more than enough. More is needed depending on what the response variable is, number of comparisons, etc. I’ll see if I can dig the numbers up again someday. IIRC, around 400 was a good amount for the finder decay testing, in part because it dealt with small differences.

As for variability or waves, that should already be incorporated into the statistical tests or especially experimental design for the latter. If you are concerned about waves while testing the difference in average MU between treatments or something like that, waves shouldn’t be a confounding factor if you’re switching between treatments (e.g., amped or not) each claim.

That’s partly why you don’t go testing one method X-hundred times and then go try the other method the same amount, especially if it’s over the course of days or weeks later. The two aren’t statistically comparable at that point. If you keep the treatments as close to pair-wise as possible, then both should be getting the same background variation from nuisance factors.
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Makes a lot of sense.

You want to snapshot a control and an experiment back to back in order to reduce the impact of time as a factor.
 
What if someone would in theory obtain a 50% hitrate ie either hitting on entmatter or ore without even moving ? Just waiting for the required amount of time to allow for the respawn.

I also think that the value of e is somehow involved.. I mean it's scary how close it's value is to the average hit rate %. Could there be some sort of attractor ? Something like this perhaps... If an attractor is present, no matter where avatars drop their probes, the value of that probe will eventually end up in the attractor. Think of it like a sink where all the peds of missed probes go to be recycled, a central pool.

You could even have depth being represented by the different branches of Lambert W. Eh what do I know anyway..
 
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Or is it just an itterative function based on a non copyright spiral....
 
MrBabul said:
If your facing SE during drop and jump 3 times you get better hitrate!
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HR should be the same across the board, just don't mine when the HR is low, wait for others to fill the pool
 
I have a few questions on about the results of this test...

I decided to edit this as what I was asking did not make any sense to me. So I will ask this instead. If multiple miners decrease the hit rate in an area, will one miner in an area do the same over time ?

Assume that there is a finite amount of resources in an area, if an avatar extracts more than from that area than what the area can naturally replenish, there will be less resources and therefore a lower hitrate. Therefore resources should always drop off until they are refreshed. You should then also see a sawtooth wave while mining with the peak being the second the refresh happens and then it all going downhill from there.

Loot is not distributed evenly across all it's sizes, it is heavily tail ended. Please read the research gate paper for more details, link is in my signature under more reading.
 
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R4tt3xx said:
I have a few questions on about the results of this test...

I decided to edit this as what I was asking did not make any sense to me. So I will ask this instead. If multiple miners decrease the hit rate in an area, will one miner in an area do the same over time ?

Assume that there is a finite amount of resources in an area, if an avatar extracts more than from that area than what the area can naturally replenish, there will be less resources and therefore a lower hitrate. Therefore resources should always drop off until they are refreshed. You should then also see a sawtooth wave while mining with the peak being the second the refresh happens and then it all going downhill from there.

Loot is not distributed evenly across all it's sizes, it is heavily tail ended. Please read the research gate paper for more details, link is in my signature under more reading.
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You think about it to much buddy. Just get out in the areas with high mu cycle and have fun. Every time I think about my mining I just lose money so I just go with flow.
 
slick27 said:
You think about it to much buddy. Just get out in the areas with high mu cycle and have fun. Every time I think about my mining I just lose money so I just go with flow.
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As if a md1 can obtain high mu resources....

I am researching, not really in it for profit.
 
Some remain blind... some can't count... some have problems with both

Try to figure out where my profit is...

Mining at all different depths with different finders...
Oh and these are net prices, so all costs included
And I keep mining between claims of other miners.

Caldo is 2x in the list cause price is still unstable for me, same for Iron 3x

Where you see the same name 2 or 3 times with different %, is because I have made adjustments for that this year ... prices change.

And let me also add that I regularly have problems running out of certain resources (fillers) even though I mine for several hours / day.

And no, I don't even consider amps


12527,1414237,91113,66%16128,36128,75%3601,22Totall ped1565,761171,42105,06906,44196,9565,004235,7663,57472,424,5097,241751,181064,64
1710,773601,22Totall %12,50%9,35%0,84%7,24%1,57%0,46%33,81%0,51%27,61%0,03%0,78%13,98%8,50%
Cost netTTTT+%SalesSales+%Profit/lossBelkarCaldoCaldoCumbrizCumbrizGoldIronIronIronLangotzLanoLystNarc
Minimum needed77,67%Sale %123,09%109,69%109,69%106,10%116,10%106,94%114,41%110,90%114,41%190,00%145,19%108,15%111,71%
 
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R4tt3xx said:
As if a md1 can obtain high mu resources....

I am researching, not really in it for profit.
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Sweetstuff magerian and few others can be obtained at lower depths. Also add to fact that not many exclusively mine at those depths I'd say you got a chance.
 
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