Pretty much my thoughts as well there. I don't consider it to be negative to make projections and look at what options are provided for the future.
Of course I hope the moon is a success....
I wrote this just over two years ago just as the price was going up from special offer at 50 peds to 60?. As we know, they still haven't all sold and are thus still unsellable. They are generating some income, however, at what seems to be about 10 pecs a month now, but that means if they were on sale openly, the market value would be less than 60 peds.
I'm partly considering this NI/AG thing as a test of transparency - by MA, by the PP and by the players. I haven't yet been to NI to see things for myself, but there is indeed some info being provided by people.
Why do we have to do so much reading between the lines, though?
Anyway, my reading is this: shares will be tradeable in six months (stated info). It was not stated that all shares need to have been sold first. The missions appear to have been finished by at least 2 people, as 2 estate tokens have been discovered. This means that they cannot involve super high turnovers to get them, so there is no long tail of revenue from the missions. The upgradeable armour does require a considerable number of armour drops to get each piece to perfected, but the price for all the way also looks to be quite high. We will have to see what the drop rate of armour is compared to ped turnover. This may indeed generate revenue for quite a while - and the looted basic armour may command a reasonable mu that upgraders will be paying.
Still, it's a very specific path that will only be taken by people wanting the armour upgraded and those providing armour. Drop rate:demand ratio will play a huge role here.
For the future is this whole estate thing. It is unclear if just the 6 'winners' will be able to build up estates or anyone interested. A visitor to AG has said the estates are large enough for a castle in theory, but the use of buildings and cost to build are completely unknown. Apparently, at least 5 buildings should be available (see notes about AG team putting them in by hand if MA cannot finish the system properly by the time of the next pp update). I suspect this will be in Sept/Oct to coincide with shares becoming tradeable.
Short conclusion: IF we get pec a week of payouts, then that equates to about 5% per annum based on 10 peds. I thus see no 'rush' to buy shares compared to other ped-purchasables. However, I do value that we are at least able to buy them in-game with peds, although I still think sales will be slow - see moon performance...
GL all!